Transcription
Hello everybody.
So, two topics for today's video, the second video of the day.
Did MicroStrategy not buy Bitcoin? That's going to be most of the topic of this video.
And we're briefly going to talk about the brutal market opening and what's happening with tariffs.
So let me get started with MicroStrategy.
Today, Sunday, Sor did not tweet as usual. Oh, the chart is missing some green dots, and so that means likely no announcement come tomorrow, Monday.
There will likely be no announcement that he added Bitcoin.
There are three main takes on this. One of them is investors will be happy.
If my comment section is to be believed, I think a lot of investors will be happy.
People will be like, "Oh, we stopped the ATM. No more ATM. The stock can finally go up. They let it go up."
So that's going to be one cohort of investors.
Other investors, and I would place myself in this category if number three was not there, would say, "Oh, you know, it's sad. You know, no yield, no Bitcoin yield for us today 'cause he didn't buy Bitcoin."
And this is option number three, which is where I'm at.
Did he buy but he can't tell us? I think this is the situation.
I think he bought, but he can't tell us.
I think he may buy some more, but he can't tell us because of a blackout period.
And while a blackout period could be two weeks, could be three weeks, there's really no clear rule.
But it seems to me like Sor has selected a blackout period of one week.
This is not a tangible rule; this is not a very, very clear rule.
It's all about interpretation by the SEC, but it seems to me that it is consistent for them to enter a one-week blackout period where there is no official communication.
And so that's why I think we didn't see that, with no official communication on material information on the stock.
And obviously, for MicroStrategy, announcing a Bitcoin buy is as material as it gets for the movement of the stock.
So that would be my guess.
Because Wednesday, we have earnings at the market, and after market close, we have earnings on February 5th.
This is going to be very interesting to see what he announces on Wednesday evening.
What will he recognize as income, if he does?
How much is that going to be?
And also, what's going to happen to the money that is in cash, presumably?
I mean, we really don't know.
He probably bought some.
I hope he waited a little bit because Bitcoin's down now.
But we know from last week's announcement, last week's Monday buy announcement, that there was 836 million left in cash.
That would be a Bitcoin buy potential of 8,700 Bitcoins.
And then we know that the preferred, the strike preferred raised 584 million, so that's another 6,000 Bitcoin potential buy.
So we're looking at a potential 14,792 extra Bitcoin buy.
Could this be announced on Wednesday along with a nice earnings report?
Maybe.
I have no idea.
This is not financial advice.
I don't know.
All I know is that Bitcoin is getting cheaper by the hour due to an unrelated matter.
And the more Bitcoin drops, the more red cash gets there into more Bitcoin.
So that's actually bullish for MicroStrategy if we get a temporary drop in Bitcoin.
And what's the unrelated matter as to why Bitcoin is down?
Well, for the second topic of today's video, I'm going to address it again really, really quickly.
It seems like we have an escalation of these, which I guess I'm now going to call tariff wars.
It seems like over the weekend we've had an escalation, especially from Canada.
Canada announced retaliation, announcing tariffs on quite a few billions, a 25% tariff, similar to a retaliation.
So not giving in on the demand, I believe something related to the labs.
They are not giving in.
They're like, "Okay, well, we're going to tariff you back."
You may remember the early 2017 days, you know, a tit for tat.
We're going back to that.
And of course, it's making the markets be fearful.
An eye for an eye, the market is fearful.
And so Bitcoin is kind of the easiest asset to sell at any time, and the market is selling Bitcoin.
And so we see Canada coming on strong against the Trump measures.
Ontario removing U.S. alcohol now, you know, apparently it's a billion dollars or something like that, a big number in absolute terms, but nothing compared to the size of the trade between these two countries.
So I still think this is more about announcement value than it is really meaningful for now, especially when we know that this is the negotiation tactic that Trump has always had to shock, to surprise people, and then you come to the negotiating table.
But it needs to have some shock value.
And you also see that the Chinese are not, it seems to me like the Chinese are not going to do much except file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization.
Which means we'll probably know if something happens in like seven or eight years or something like that.
That's how slow these organizations move.
Again, I'm being factious, but you know, it's a lawsuit.
That means it's going to take years.
So this is essentially what we may find out when Trump is not in office anymore.
So anyways, I'm getting ready for an over-deep seek-like open this Monday.
So the volatility is back.
Volatility in the market is there.
In my view, this likely will be an overreaction.
Again, this is not financial advice; this is just my view.
I highlighted this in my video yesterday about currency wars.
In my view, this is mostly going to be absorbed by market forces, i.e., what is the free market telling you?
It's telling you the exchange rate, right?
It's telling you, "Oh, the exchange rate might be the main adjustment variable."
And sure enough, we are seeing now the Canadian dollar at 67 cents.
Apparently, it's back at 2003 levels or something like that.
So you can see 67 cents.
The euro is at 1.02.
Again, I haven't seen it like that in quite a long time.
So what's the takeaway?
Well, if you live in Canada or if you live in Europe, because Europe might be next for tariffs, then U.S. stocks are a good proxy.
You kind of fly with U.S. stocks because if the dollar strengthens, then all of your money is in dollars, and your money is not necessarily in Canadian dollars.
So as much as I hate stocks as U.S. dollar fiat derivatives, right?
This is a MicroStrategy video.
I much prefer a Bitcoin derivative.
It's true that if you own U.S. stocks, you actually benefit from the devaluation of your own currency.
And this could be a blessing if you're trying to go on vacation.
Looks like I'm in Canada here.
Looks like going to Europe on vacation or going to Canada on vacation seems to be getting cheaper by the day.
Might be a good deal to go up north or to the old continent.
This is a good time for a vacation with these prices.
You might have an inexpensive vacation.
So of course, no vacation advice, but this is my main take.
My main take is that tariffs, I think much of the hurt is going to be absorbed by currency movements and currency dropping based on the trade deficits.
Essentially, this is what I think this is going to take.
But WS and headlines will overtake the narrative, and we know this always lasts a few days, and then the market comes back to its senses.
So I'm getting ready to buy tomorrow.
That's my point.
This was not financial advice.
This is not investment advice.
This is just entertainment.
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Thank you for watching, and have a wonderful, wonderful day.