Transcription
[Music]
All right, what's up? How are you doing, Jolen? It's post-election, and I'm wondering, like, what were some of y'all on? That's what I'm wondering. You know, it's been a lot that's happening. There was a lot of discussion behind that. I remember you and I had been discussing about this even before we got the results of the election.
So yeah, it's interesting to say the least. But yeah, just as a heads up, welcome everybody to the Come Up Series. This is a whole different type of vibe, probably maybe once in a lifetime, where you guys get to see us go through different topics of things outside of our normal, usual things.
And the reason why we're doing this is because today is Tuesday, November 12th, at 2:24 PM. I am currently at Udub, University of Washington Medical Hospital. My wife was having complications, and we've been here since Thursday. So hopefully we're looking to get this charge soon, but I mean, it can take a while. My wife is feeling a little bit better, but keep us in your prayers and in your thoughts, or in just good energy, however you see it.
But yeah, I wanted to make sure that we give you guys some pretty dope information at the same time because the Come Up cousins, they are family. And of course, Jolen and I, we like to keep it rocking. So, what's good, Jolen? What are we doing today?
I don't know. I do want to say though, like, there is a lot going on in both your personal life and my personal life, and then also we have the professional life as well—business life, entrepreneur life, whatever. And every time I say, "let no thing stop the," like this is what I'm talking about—the ability to show up. Especially this is particularly apropos given that we just had this election where the results are not what I wanted at all.
And it's important that even though things look a hot mess, figuring out what it means to still show up—showing up for yourself, showing up for your friends, family, and your wider community. And so for us, this is what it looks like. It looks like taking the time to record this episode early so that we can get back to the mess, really.
So pretty much, you know, yeah, you nailed it right there on the head. You know, it's like, like I said, we both go through a lot that people don't see. And I think that we make it look easy at times. But excuse my language, this [ __ ] ain't easy. It's not for the faint of heart.
So yeah, but you kind of nailed something there. I have a feeling that we're going to aim there first, which is starting with the other side of the mess, right?
Oh, the other side of the mess! Yes. So even though we didn't get the results we wanted, like we said, the market doesn't care about the elections. The market was still living life out here, hitting record highs. So let's just get into the whole impact of the shenanigans because these are shenanigans, y'all, that's going on right now. This is surreal.
Yeah, but I'm not going to get too much into that. But yeah, so it's wild. It's very wild out here, and I have a feeling it's going to get even wilder. I think that, you know, now that he's the president-elect, he's gonna have to figure out exactly like, "Okay, hey, is he going to work together with the Democratic Party to ultimately mend things?"
Or is it that essentially there's a specific agenda that they're running off of that starts next year? And then on top of that, what does that look like? What is its economic impact? What is its social impact? There's so many things to unpack there.
Yeah, what we were looking at when the election was going on, the futures market was very much so active. And the futures market, like from what I had projected and you and I had spoken about this before the elections even popped off, I said, "You know Wall Street was pricing in that if he won and if he also took the Senate, then you're looking at about a three to three and a half percent rise in the market."
And then, of course, if, you know, Kamala had won and alongside with, like say, for example, maintaining the Senate, you would probably see maybe a one and a half percent rise. If there was a Democratic sweep, then it would have been a negative, and if Donald Trump had taken the entire—like if they were a sweep, then essentially that would have been a positive, like even beyond three and a half percent that Wall Street was pricing in.
So it kind of was very evident from what I was seeing across multiple different sheets as it pertains to that was that the market was pricing in. But it let us know that the market was pricing in a Donald Trump victory.
And we saw it play out on election night as the futures market was active. And then of course, post-election, we saw this meteoric rise within the stock market—S&P 500 running all the way up to 6,000 and then ultimately saying, "Hold up, Dow going to 44,000," until it said, "Hold up, Russell—" the Russell 2000 was ultimately at what, up 5% on day one?
And now we're starting to get a little bit of hold up—Tesla going up astronomically because Musk, I think it was like 18% or something like that on day one percent today. So, yeah, again, there's a lot that's there to unpack as it pertains to what does technically a Donald Trump presidency mean. Does that mean a presidency that is very much so accommodative towards businesses as well? Or corporations as well as accommodative to the super wealthy?
Probably so. And I was kind of like, you know, having this conversation with other folks. You gotta kind of think about it in the one grasp of hope that you have is the Invisible Hand metric is even though when one person, societally, does something out of selfish need, society will somehow find a way to find an equilibrium where it will ultimately balance itself.
And that's ultimately what always gives me solace as it pertains to finding that silver lining, even though it may look a little rusty. It looks rusty for real. But at the same time, it is important. If you haven't learned anything from however many years we've been on since 2020, you make money in whatever market is in front of you.
And so there definitely is money to be made. I know plenty of people, like when Trump was in office, they had some of their best market years and in the market, in their business or whatever. And there's always that balance between, you know, what the human side of things is—what I'm going to call it. This administration feels devoid of humanity.
But the human side of things and then also getting these reparations out of this market. And that's exactly the attitude I have. I'm all black on for a reason, okay? Like, that is the vibe.
I'm sorry, I couldn't participate. You have an excuse, you know? But you have the little black on there, I see it. You got some black, and you are black, so that's enough. But you already know what time we have to be on as a culture.
One of the questions I have though is, you know, the market has been taking off. We're seeing record highs everywhere. Can we talk about, like, is there a risk for potential market correction at this point?
Yes, I mean, because PE multiples are getting overstretched. I mean, you got some companies out there, like, you know, trading at 100 times—even some cases, even further beyond that—and we’re just getting stretched.
And I think that when the euphoria kind of like wears off from, let's say, some of the companies or some well within the market, right? Like for example, on the day that Trump won, you saw banks go up. On the day that Jerome Powell stepped forth and said, "Look, we're cutting rates again at 25 bips," then ultimately you saw banks ultimately fall back down.
Shout outs to JP Morgan crossing the 240. That's one. That's two. Listen, it seems like another one is loading. So, yeah, there's a lot that we're seeing here. We're seeing a lot of, like I said, euphoria.
We'll probably see a Santa Claus rally going into the market and then also seeing potentially a correction probably at the first half of the year in Q1. You're probably gonna see some profit taking coming off the table a little bit.
Well, I would hope so. But I mean, I think the beautiful but the crazy thing about it, Jolen, is though that we'll see this correction that may take place.
I don't know how long the correction will last.
I was going to ask you that.
Yeah, I don't know how long it's going to last. How sustainable is this rally, though? And, like, what factors could potentially derail investor optimism?
Yeah, so one of the things that I've always learned is never underestimate the strength of a bubble. So there's something to be said there. We see companies trading at large multiples and, of course, you know you're going to get to a place where it's like, "Okay, hey, like, you know, right now we're risk on."
So the market is going to accept whatever risk is coming its way. You'll probably see when the market drops, the dip buying will probably still remain active. You got the S&P 500, I think it's up 46% year to date. So—
Which is unreal! Like, when have you ever heard of the S&P 500 going up 40% in one year?
It's crazy, so like I said, it's been a lot of dip buying. I think that this probably year 2024 maybe even supersedes the growth of maybe even 2019, which was one of the best rally years just within my time as an investor/trader. So something to be said there.
Though, like I said, earnings will ultimately start bringing things in. But in a low interest rate environment where we see cutting of rates, the biggest thing is the question—is that is inflation going to get sticky?
You know, because—you know, I had to slip that in there. I have a feeling, like shout outs to Tell the Creator, I have a feeling that it's getting sticky in here, so better find a mop. It's getting sticky.
So in that regard, I think that ultimately we'll probably see the S&P 500 continue to run. I think that you'll probably see some of the runners that are still running—they may get a little tired, but they're going to still keep running.
I think that we'll probably see a few other players come into the space that haven't been running as much. But I think that in the grand scheme of things, I think that we'll probably see a refocus as it pertains to investment.
I still believe that we're in a growth phase right now. So I think I had mentioned that like in late 2023, I said that we're probably going to start seeing companies go into a growth phase, and I think that that growth phase doesn't end in just a year.
The growth phases go for about two to three years. So next year we'll ultimately probably solidify that—whether or not we’re at the end of that growth cycle or we’re in the middle to late or early late endings of that growth phase.
So I tend to say let Q1 dictate the story. It'll kind of tell us, okay?
Yeah, my nephew is here right now, and I can hear him. He's not used to having—I can't even hear him.
Okay, well he's loud to me, so.
Okay, but right now, he's hella crunk, so it's just interesting.
Okay, so let's talk about—you're talking about we're still in a growth phase, right? So which specific industries or companies are likely to benefit from this particular administration?
I think that you're going to definitely see tech companies that are going to benefit. I mean, I think that you're probably going to start seeing a lot of folks come through and kiss the ring and start having those meetings with Trump to discuss agendas and everything else and his administration.
So I wouldn't be surprised when you start seeing CEOs coming to meet with, like, the Trump administration early next year. I think that that's just naturally going to happen.
And everybody has an agenda. It’s really a Game of Thrones out here. I would probably say definitely tech, and I would definitely say industrials—because the question is, can you reel back in jobs?
And then on top of that, if the question of mass deportations becomes an issue, I'm afraid for agricultural markets. So like, you know, those types of arenas. I'm very afraid of those.
I think energy also—I'm afraid of that one.
Afraid? What do you mean? Say more.
I'm fearful in the sense that there may not be a lot of growth in those arenas. I just don't think that there's going to be strong drivers there. I mean, I could be wrong, but I just don't think that essentially they're gonna—I think they're going to fall out of love with the markets.
So yeah, I would say like the two winners that I can easily see is technology and industrials. Maybe you could splash in health, and I don't know—retail is more so our economic space. So essentially, if people are losing their jobs, they're going to start spending less.
Circle back to, I was going to actually talk about it a little bit because of the fact that what we're seeing as it pertains to a lot of companies right now, if they're expecting large tariffs or increased tariffs, then you're seeing a lot of companies that are buying up inventory now so that way they can protect themselves for at least next year.
And then from there, essentially trying to figure out, like, okay, hey, since we did all this massive cback spending, where are we going to have to cut? Are we gonna have to—is this going to turn to layoffs? What is that going to look like?
So again, it—you’re going to see a lot of companies that are taking the necessary precautions, and the companies that, you know, that have spending power and everything else, they're not going to really care because of the fact that they dictate—they're participants within that market—but they also help dictate the market. There's a difference.
So question—speaking of dictating the market in the economy, but looking on the consumer side of things, word on these TikTok streets is that people are gathering together collectively to, in a form of like economic resistance, to combat and resist this new administration.
So what does it look like? Maybe we can just think about this for a moment. What would it look like for all the people that voted for Kamala Harris to not really participate in the market at large?
So I'm talking about shifting dollars to black-owned businesses, local businesses, small businesses, maybe doing some bartering, and essentially boycotting those larger corporations that supported or contributed to, oh boy's campaign.
I mean, I get it. And in certain lights, yeah, I mean, I can definitely see it like from, say, for example, consumer to business. But then it gets a little tricky when you start thinking about it from like the supply chain of things.
So when you're going from, let's say, if I'm going from, let's say, you know, the business side of things, if I'm a business owner, and then now I gotta worry about supply, whatever it is that I'm buying.
And then let's say if I have to get that supply from out of the country or whatever it is, then what does that look like for me now? You know, now it's like I'm—I'm now—the impact, like on a microeconomic side, is lovely.
When it starts having an impact where that business or whoever they are within the ranks, they now have to participate within the macro environment. That's where it gets tricky. Now, it's not to say that it can't happen.
You know, I think that people—the opportunities that people should start looking at is banding together to probably put together private equity or investment funds in which that ultimately literally go towards making the necessary investments for growth of those small businesses.
I think that ultimately utilizing, as it pertains to even in places of real estate for folks that are multifamily, as it pertains to the specific focus as it pertains to where those dollars go.
Also participating on a legislative level within their own state or cities, preferably state, is really going to come down to those types of things. Because when you look at state, state is going to dictate what happens to those businesses regardless. It's going to happen.
I mean, you have to think about like the journey of money, right—from your hands to wherever it goes. So for example, if it goes from my hands, and then it goes to that small business's hands, and then from that small business is going to go to whether or not who their suppliers are.
And then, of course, there's banking that's intertwined into this as well. But let's just say, like, you're going down the road as it pertains to like where does the money go? If we're really thinking about this, then that would mean that we would have to maintain—we would have to literally control the entire ecosystem as it pertains to supply chain and also delivery as it pertains to the consumer.
If we can do that, then great, fantastic. If we can't, then essentially we see cracks in the armor as it pertains to like, okay, hey, how does money circulate? Then two, how is it that we can influence growth? Then three, it's like kind of like the concept of like where it's like you have law enforcement that participates or that they serve within a community, but they don’t live within that community, so those dollars go outside of the community and essentially the dollars aren't circulating.
So I think that that's the biggest part—like the collective work in economics. I think that it's very possible, even in 2024. I think that people say it's tougher. I don't think that it is. I think that it's more so easier, especially given the technology and everything else.
And I think it's just more so in a sense of mindset. Can it happen? You know, can we circulate those? So the key part is like how many times that—let's just use a dollar—the dollar is circulated within the community before it leaves the community? Correct? That's going to be the major question.
Like for example, if you know a person who's a farmer, right? Okay, well, where does he get his feed from? Who like, like who supplies him as it pertains to the feed? And then the person that's literally producing the feed—like what does that look like for them?
Sooner or later, you're going to get to the—you’re going to find a way where you’re going to tap the global economic environment or the macro environment. There's no way that you can probably escape it unless we go back into times as it pertains to how those things ultimately operated.
Like if you think about people who buy clothes, like what does that look like as it pertains to circulating?
So again, it's not to say that it's not doable. It's just the thing is that you have to get very laser focused. Your network has to be very, very strong in the sense of, "Okay, hey, who's supplying what within the supply chain?" And then ultimately, how do those dollars circulate accordingly?
Even—because I imagine right now, given how things are and who owns what, and I'm speaking specifically about the Black community, that dollar does not stay in our community that long.
So even if we increased it by one to two cycles of staying within the community, that could impact. That has impact because you think about tax dollars. Those tax dollars then go into the communities in which that they're serving, like for example, education, health, and all those other types of things.
I mean, luckily we live in Washington state, and Washington state is very lit.
So it kind of allows us to—it kind of gives a solace where we can kind of like live within a bubble. If you were in a blue state and you voted blue, then essentially you're in a bubble. You're good to a certain extent.
But if you live in a red state and you voted blue, man, I feel for you.
I really, really do. And you find yourself having to ask yourself questions as it pertains to what does that look like for you? You know, I guess the biggest thing is make money and then do something with that money that has a huge impact on your community.
Yeah, that's probably some of the best advice. And how could we not forget, we're talking about like major impacts and all that—the big old elephant that stomped all in the room and took over is freaking Bitcoin.
Oh, I mean, I think that ultimately that just came along with the—like Bitcoin is its meteoric rise in the short term that it has done. I think it's like 30% or something like that.
I think that its meteoric rise is the fact that I think the writing's on the wall now that the president-elect is Donald Trump. And ultimately, I think that Gary Gensler's days are over—or numbered, rather, at the SEC.
And if that's the case, the number one issue—like I think Len N. Conn and Gary Gensler, I think their time is up at the FTC.
And just as a heads up, that's not my FTC, just as a heads up.
Um, Trade Commission—yeah, Federal Trade Commission, not from the culture—and then of course SEC as it pertains to Bitcoin regulation.
So I think that its massive pop is on speculation that essentially Gary Gensler is out, and ultimately that you will be replaced with somebody who's much more accommodative towards allowing Bitcoin or cryptocurrency into the landscape and removing some of those regulatory guidelines, and maybe even writing some new ones that are more accommodative for businesses to flow.
Um, and also maybe for trade as well as it pertains to investment.
So I think that that's the reason why you saw that Bitcoin rose.
Okay, it's a good temperature reading as it pertains to sentiment for sure.
Well, yeah, the sentiment is interesting because there's like political sentiment and then there's the economic and market sentiment.
Yeah, I'm going to keep my eye on inflation in this—that's gonna be the—so can I make a prediction here?
Yes.
I think it's going to take three years for people to probably witness that things start to get ugly.
The people who are really paying attention on the economic side—just purely economics.
Yeah, I think that with all this accommodative, and with all this, like, easy money policy and all this other stuff that's probably about to hit the streets, and we just got out of this massive hole as it pertains to what inflation caused and its impacts, I think that, like, it's kind of like crazy.
Because when you really look at Joe Biden's economy, as much as we like to give him stuff about, like, you know, sending money to Ukraine and all these other places, if you really look at the economy itself, the economy is actually doing good.
I mean slowing down, don't get me wrong. I mean, there's certain things that—there's certain times where it's like it becomes out of your control, but in Biden's economy as it pertains to presidency, he's actually done very, very well to position it for the handoff.
Now the question is how long is it going to take for that to literally fall apart? Like, that's going to be the question, or will it fall apart? You know, those are questions that we don't know.
But in my estimation, I'm probably guessing that we will probably see inflation come back uglier within three years.
And my reasoning behind that is because of the fact that one, you're going to increase, say for example, production here in the United States. United States talent will cost more than what you typically pay for it to be produced out of the country.
I'm not saying—I don't have a stick in this fight one way or another. I see the balances for both arguments. I'm just reading the tea leaves as it pertains to what it looks like.
So when the cost of something goes up, then—or when the cost of labor goes up as it pertains to produce things, then the cost to sell—so for example, simple thing to say, if I create the shirt, and I sell it to you, Jolen, for $10, how much are you going to sell it for?
About $50.
Okay, so—wow, okay. So let's make it even more simpler, let's—my bad.
Let's say that you sell it for $15, just basic—let's just do basic math. But let's say that I raised the price to $15. Now how much are you going to sell it to your customers for?
Well, now I have to sell it for even more because you're charging me more, so it's going to get—
Right! I just explained the Trump tariffs to anybody out there that didn't understand what that concept looks like.
So when you think about all of what that price structure looks like, so then that's going to drive inflation as it pertains to the cost of goods and stuff like that.
And then on top of that, if you're taking away, even though they're skilled workers, but you pay—you pay them less, and you talk about mass deportation.
Well, who's going to fulfill those roles? Who's going to work those jobs at those price points? Because a lot of Americans, especially younger Americans, they've kind of like been spoiled for x amount of time to say, "Okay, you can make this much amount of money."
Well, what happens now? Like what does that look like now? So now the cost of those goods now go up because of the fact is you're going to have to raise the pay in order to have those types of workers that come in and pay them at their rates versus paying for the rates that you pay in Mexico, China, Vietnam, and I'll even throw in some areas, like for example, India.
So for example, when people ask me, "Well Mark, why India?" You think about it—a software engineer that you pay for, like a lot of these companies they get away with paying software engineers in India. They're probably paying them anywhere from $30,000 to $60,000 for what they would typically pay somebody here back at home—anywhere from $120,000 to $150,000.
I know that's a huge thumbs down for, like, for example what that situation looks like. But I mean, it's true. You can't escape these things.
You know we could be mad at the truth, but no matter what, the truth is still the truth. And so that's what I mean by where I say that inflation is going to probably come back and become uglier.
Well, okay, so what's interesting too is all of the policies that this upcoming administration are trying to implement, the ripple—they don't talk about like the fuller scale of what the impact's going to be like.
If we just stick with immigration, and you're talking about if there are mass deportations, then it's going to essentially drive the cost of goods up because now we have to pay for more expensive labor.
And there's no one that's going to do those jobs that the immigrants were doing, right?
I'm also wondering what the impact will be on people's marriages, for example. So like with economics, one of the number one reasons for why people get married is because it's a wealth builder, right?
But now if you don't like your job is, you know, causing pressure, stuff is high, you can't afford it, there’s less harmony in the homes. And also they're talking about getting rid of no-fault divorce.
So let me just say, for those of y'all who were even thinking about it, I mean, this might be the time. This might be the time right now, because otherwise you might be trapped. You might be trapped in not even just an unhappy marriage, but it might be a financial disaster for you to stay.
So it's just interesting how all of a sudden we have this election, and by 2025, like everything might just change. Like the whole script will be flipped.
And the reason why it is so important to just take that time right now and to think through what each of these things mean that we're going over, it can make the difference in how you move, what your mindset is like, what you're thinking, and who do you lock arms with—all these things.
It literally feels like the world has been flipped upside down.
Yes, it really feels like that right now.
Yeah, and the one thing that kind of like gives me solace is that the day is always darkest before the dawn.
And so I look at it like this—so let's—that's a lot to unpack. That's a lot to unpack. So let's look at it from the stance as it pertains to, you know, just, I'm always going to like try to steer clear of like, you know, my personal feelings.
I always will try to like bring it back into the center as it pertains to what can the data tell me, and those types of things.
And so here's what I'm noticing and here's what I'm—and because I had a great deal of conversations across multiple different sides of the pond—whether you’re a Trump supporter, Kamala supporter, or even Jill Stein or Cornel West.
And what I found out was is that a lot of folks when they think about things, not even just voting, but just people today, it's kind of like microwave. Everybody’s thinking more so microwave versus slow cook versus oven. You may get a little bit of stove top.
And so what does that mean when I say that? The type of data that people are bringing in, like what people are talking about, the conversations—like I remember back when we first started the Come Up Series, you know, people could probably only put together maybe five sentences as it pertains to the market.
Now they can give you a full-fledged thesis. And the reason why is because of the fact that they’re just not listening to a sound bite. You're actually listening to the entire thing.
And so—and that's one of the things that I would probably strongly challenge if we have Jay-Z watching. If you're watching today, and you're paying attention to your generation, I—you know, there's a lot of things about your generation that is cooked.
But I mean, let's be honest—dating and everything else for your generation is cooked. And I think the reason why is because there's been a lot of unrealistic expectations that have been placed that—like, you know, and it's like it's kind of funny because I kind of like welcome a recession to a certain point because it gives everybody a mental room.
It gives everybody a mental reset—like where we can truly reset the room. And ultimately, people can start getting back to a little bit of what we call reality instead of just like listening to a sound bite or hearing this.
And I think that honestly, you know, TikTok serves a great purpose. But then it's like, okay, hey, go beyond TikTok, go beyond and actually do further research. Go and actually read the full article.
Go ahead and read the entire data point. Don't just listen to like—it’s very simple when people debate about things. They drill in, they debate based upon like, “Okay, hey, I'm looking to pick a certain point exactly out of what a person said versus listening to the entirety of what the person said.”
And that just shows you this.
Say that again—listening for understanding as opposed to just listening to, you know, reply and respond.
And that's the crazy part because when we get to that point when we listen to like literally learn and everything else, then the conversations and everything else is so much more richer versus what we're doing now is we now find ourselves arguing and debating and voting, and whatever it is against our own interests and not even realizing it at the time because of the fact that we're so microwave.
I'm just saying—like I’m just saying as it pertains to the mass population. I mean, you know they’re not like us.
So I think that’s the thing that when we think about it—like when people want to breathe this like, you know, quote, unquote rarified air, I mean people, like—they listen, they read, they actually read to understand.
They listen to find like, you know, okay, hey, data points that they can ultimately extrapolate and also expound upon. And that's the same thing as it pertains to market. That's the same thing as it pertains to economics.
It's universal. It’s universal.
One of the things that I've always learned from some of the most successful people is they're great listeners. They're exceptional listeners.
They rather sit back and listen to what is it that you have to say and also to—like literally take it all in. And then essentially, if you know typically notice, like some of the most powerful people, they listen a lot, and when they respond, their responses are very short.
So I’m just kidding, right? Like, you know—but it’s like their responses, they hit—they hit, and they didn’t have to say much.
So I guess that's the thing to look at, like, Jolen, like really, if Jen is watching today or Jay or even my generation as millennials and Gen Xers, every generation, you know, listen to understand.
I think that we're missing that huge dimensional piece where it's like generations are not having conversations with one another, and that's a major decrease in wealth because of the fact that you're missing a lot of the scope as it pertains to the conversation.
You're missing those parts as it pertains to context. The reason why I value my grandfather a lot is because of the fact that he fills in a lot of the context that essentially I just wouldn't have been able to grasp on my own.
So there's just, like I said, there's just data in which that we gather and which that we just—we would just ultimately be missing.
So I challenge you, like literally go have conversations and then, you know, let's move beyond our own—let's move beyond our own triggers. Like we have to have non-triggered conversations.
Well, I mean, we need to do some healing, honestly.
And about this we did—we all need to do healing. I'm not just saying—not excluding us—I’m saying everyone does.
But yeah, we have to be able to tell the truth.
We do. And I think that—there you go! I was gonna say we have to be able to hear the truth, listen to the truth, and also be able to stand in the truth and then also deal with it like, okay, where do we go from here?
So now that we know that, okay, hey, this is what it is. You know, the markets have kind of like accepted it. You know, the markets are now trying to grasp—like it's kind of like when we see the Fed do its thing, the markets were trying to grasp it.
They kept trying to create this whole narrative around Jerome Powell, and Jerome Powell was like, "Um, no, this is what it is." The markets ultimately had to go to its tantrum, and it had to get with the program.
And think about it, look at where we are now—the S&P 500, now at record highs, and like now you don’t see anybody speaking negatively or speaking against Jerome Powell's name.
Now it's like they put respect on this man's name and be like, "Look, I wasn’t familiar with your game. Now I am."
So ultimately, let me respect it.
And I think that that’s a major example that I think that we can pull from and say, okay, as we move forward, let's look towards like what we've learned in the past to apply it towards not only today's present but preparing us for the future.
And not like just stay focused on what's currently happening, but look at the things in which that are currently happening and look at it in the sense of beyond four years.
Let's say, okay, hey, think about it, 8 years, 10 years down the road. You know, what does that look like? How do we get there?
Yeah, there were a couple other things that were impacted by the election and election results—for one, the U.S. dollar. How should we take that into consideration as we think through next moves and just the impact of the economy—impact on our portfolios?
I mean, a strong U.S. dollar ultimately creates risk for equities. I mean, a weaker dollar creates a better opportunity for folks that are investing outside. But at the same token, you got to look around and say, okay, hey, well, what—it's like you walk into a restaurant, and let's say that you're in a restaurant, and you see all the menu—like imagine going into a restaurant and seeing the entire menu on display so that way you know what you're getting.
Okay, now that you see the entire menu, now you have to ask yourself, what is it that I want? And you're gonna see certain things at a table, like, "I ain't messing with that."
Yeah, you're gonna see certain things at another table, like "Seems a little too risky, don't want to risk it."
And then you're gonna look to other things that are gonna be like, "Okay, this is Old Faithful." Like, it doesn't seem as much high as a risk. I mean, and then of course make your decision.
And I think that that's the same way that we look at it as it pertains to the U.S. dollar—like what looks attractive? If energy isn't going to be attractive, if let's say industrials are going to somewhat look attractive but also at the same token risky because of the fact that potential layoffs and cost of things increasing—again, what does that look like for the everyday person? Like we don't know.
Like those are the things in which that we just honestly don't know.
Looking at like, for example, you know, the currencies to pay attention to is—you know, I don't think that people really pay attention to the Chinese dollar, though. They should.
They should pay attention to the yuan, the euro, the pound, and of course—I'm drawing a blank. I'm drawing a blank, but the countries that you should—the yen, yuan, euro, U.S. dollar, and the pound—those are the five that you should pay attention to.
And ultimately, you know, you can see that the currencies are a direct correlation as it pertains to what's happening within their economies or lack thereof.
Right, that makes all the sense in the world. Like you always tell us to pay attention to the 10-year.
So now, given like what's been happening post-market, the treasury yields have increased. So what be—that's what I'm saying—what implications does this have for—I don't know if you're investing in bonds or—
Well, people are selling off bonds. They're selling off bonds and saying, "Okay, hey, well," that's why I said people, when they go to bonds and they risk off.
When you go to bonds, when the bond market—when the yields are down, then that means that essentially, okay, hey, people are buying—you have a lot of buyers' activity.
When the yields are up, that means that essentially there's a lot of sellers' activity.
So I haven't looked at it lately today, but I mean, I can pull it up real quick—10 years currently sitting at 4.4. So that lets you know that there's a lot of risk appetite out there and essentially letting you know that we're more so stepping into a risk-on environment.
But at the same token, inflation's slightly still lingering but not fully healed. And then on top of that, recession potentially around the markets because of the fact that we're inducing ourselves there because of the fact that we’re seeing activity.
Things to pay attention to—lower taxes and let’s say that even if you had countries paying for tariffs, right? That still wouldn't cover the loss of revenue.
So again, that will drive up inflation. That will drive up inflation.
And again, it's like—that's what the U.S. economy cares about—us, the people of the United States care about like, "Okay, hey, our groceries too expensive?", "Is gas too expensive?", "Is my living cost too expensive?"
You know, those types of things—"Is my job safe? What does that look like going into 2025?"
But not only just going into 2025, what does it look like coming out of 2028 and going into 2029? What will you—like that's the thing that, like honestly, the smart money is asking—what will I have and what will things look like in 2029?
That's the way that you should start formulating your strategy because like I said, the next three years—you kind of know. You kind of know where we're going with this.
You have an idea as it pertains to like, you know, who's behind the wheel, you know what they—you know how they drive. You've seen how they drive before—listen, it's like catching that Uber driver that you know that you once had and you’re like, “Okay, whether it was lit or it was a terrible experience”—up to you.
But just for your own imagery, now you're walking into a situation now where you're just like, "Okay, hey, I get the same Uber driver again."
Well, you kind of know what you're in for now.
So, I mean, just to keep it in perspective, let's bring it back to data. So again, like I said, lower taxes will not—like tariffs, even if another country pays for it, will not cover the bill for lower taxes.
So that's going to be something that the administration is going to have to tackle, and if they can't tackle it within three to four years, within three years you will probably feel the effects of it.
Okay.
And then, you know, other issues as it pertains to like if it's less regulation—less regulatory.
Yeah, everybody sees that markets go up. But at the same token, there's the other side of that—like loss of regulation means that essentially we're not looking at things as closely.
So what does that look like?
I know what it looks like.
Yeah, so again, it's like, okay, loss of immigrants that were either in the process or that were DACA or whatever it is, and ultimately they were taking on jobs in which that were like literally benefiting the U.S. economy.
Like people need to think about it—like you lose these workers, this goes up against your own interest because of the fact that they keep your economy running.
Unless you already have folks that can literally step in and just replace those individuals within the ranks, then where does that leave you? So those are questions that literally need to be answered.
I don't think that we can answer them all in one show, but I think that right now where it stands is the stock market is saying risk on at least for the next year.
The stock market is looking at risk, and ultimately, people are saying, though their prices are high. You know, I believe that, you know, if I buy at this high, it may go higher or I expect it to go higher.
So, okay. You know, again, I think that that's kind of like the walking expectation.
But like I said, if you want my playbook, here's my playbook for going into—now that we have some data points, unless the bull market is showing you that it's broken, then the bull market is still the bull market.
The bull market is still a bull market until it shows you that it's lost its pattern. That's the first thing.
Don’t believe me? Go watch people like Corey from the Stock Channel and other people.
I know that PDub does also great analysis and also Z does great analysis as well as like people like Lawrence.
So you have that, then on top of that, you also have the fact that sentiment—current sentiment within the marketplace right now says that, okay, hey, well, what is—what is the alternative?
If I'm making, let's say, if I have the opportunity to make anywhere from 10 to roughly 35% gain in my portfolio as it pertains to the equities, why would I want to run to treasuries?
Right?
Okay, if companies are in growth and they're telling us that they're in growth, and they're in growth phase and they’re spending the money, and like look—they’re not even like—they're not even timidly telling you that they're spending the money.
They're like, "Yeah, we're spending money! Like, we got it, and we spend it, listen!"
Okay, at the end of the day, nobody's gonna like—you know, nobody's really batting an eye. Everybody's kind of like going to start reading from everybody's homework.
And we've seen how Wall Street does. This is a very much so monkey see, monkey do market, and so essentially like they're all looking at each other's homework and saying, "Well, what answer did you write?"
“Well, you know, I wrote this.” Well, some firms will say, "I will try to one up you on this one."
Others will be like, "Okay, hey, like I want to see the folks that are the canary in the coal mine where it's just like, okay, like everybody else is giving me this analysis, but where are the folks that are standing up against the market? I want to know what their thesis is."
The folks that stand up against the market that currently exist, what is their thesis right now?
Valuations are overstretched.
Okay, what else?
Yeah, what else we have?
Yeah, alright.
Well, you know, it's always weird we do the show this way because I'm so used to the interaction of the cousins and everything, but fact—I know that this wasn't my finest hour, y'all.
Like, you know, mind you, I'm probably maybe operating off of me maybe six hours of sleep.
So again, it's like I may have to come out and pop out and, you know, show people, you know, possibly next week or something like that, where it's—I probably have a conversation, and we probably have a Twitter Spaces or something like that.
Or finding another platform where we have this conversation because Twitter is getting a little bit too dark for me.
But yeah, so I definitely believe that, you know, if, like I said, to focus on the playbook, focus on the winners, focus on the market which that they're playing.
And ask yourself, is their market—is their—is their market going to significantly change? You know, a president—one president doesn’t make the entire market.
You know, these companies are way bigger. Like if we really put it into perspective, these companies are more powerful. If you combine them, they're more powerful than the U.S. government.
How do you know that?
Let them fail.
Let them fail.
Like what would happen to the U.S. economy if Microsoft, Apple, Google, Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia—what if they all came crashing down and lost 50% of their value?
What if, say for example, all of a sudden, they couldn't do—what if they had to stop doing business for like—what if they had to stop doing business for three weeks?
That would be wild!
So that's what I'm saying—it’s like you have to think about like the power of some of these companies. Like we saw it before with the banks, right?
If banks shut down—imagine JP Morgan going dark for 40—let's say, imagine JP Morgan going dark for 72 hours.
Yeah, that's a company that moves $10 trillion a day!
Yeah, it would be no—no thanks.
So that's why—so that's why I said, it’s like, you know, don’t just stay focused on just who’s sitting in an Oval Office and some old real estate.
You know, focus on essentially like, okay, hey, who are the real power players here? Like, and what are they doing? What are they saying? What are their conversations?
Okay, yeah, like, because if they’re still spending and everything else, if they’re still investing, if they’re still like, look—pay attention to M&A activity.
You’re about to see a lot of companies starting in, yeah, you're about to see a lot of companies possibly get gobbled up starting in 2025.
Alright, we gotta pay attention to that.
Alright, well you know what?
I think we need to get back to our personal lives now.
We do.
Um, just want to send a special shout out to my wife, Erica, who will probably be watching this later. She watches every single one of our episodes faithfully. I love you. I hope that you feel better.
I'm always by your side. It's been tough, but you're a trooper, you're a warrior, and you'll get through this.
And shout out to all the folks that just gave us great wishes, prayers, and everything else. We truly, truly appreciate it.
You know, like I said, I’m human, so a lot of times people look at me as if, you know, nothing can hurt me. Trust me, you know, there's things in which that can hurt me, and there's days in which that I have weak points.
And you know, honestly, you know, I make it seem easy, but it's not easy. So just thank you. I just want to say thank you to everybody who’s just in our corner.
And also just like supporting us this endeavor, even if it’s just, you know, "Hey Mark, I hope all is well." You don’t realize how well that like literally just fuels me to keep going even though I'm running off of fumes right now.
Um, Jolen, I hope you have a wonderful week.
I will! I'm going to Afro Tech, so I will have a wonderful week.
Oh, nice, nice, nice, nice!
Well, I hope that you meet a few cousins there at the event. I hope that, you know, deals are made and everything else, you know?
Put on your nice VC hat, represent FTC well, and I will talk to you probably when Afro Tech is over.
To all the folks out there, look, don't let fear run your decisions. You know, it’s okay to be fearful, but if you're fearful, step back, step back and examine.
And, you know, go talk to someone, then come back with a little bit more of a clear head.
You know, we've experienced the Trump presidency before. You know, some of the things were good, some of the things were bad.
Right?
Hate to say that I'm actually speaking in his words, but I mean how fitting!
But again, stay focused towards the future, y’all! Stay focused on the future! Stay vigilant as it pertains to helping mold and shape that future—even though you may not have gotten the decision that you wanted or whatever it is, and you may have, and that's fine.
But again, whether you got the decision that you wanted or the decision that you didn't want, that’s okay! Just stay focused.
What is it that you can build, and what is it that you can control, and what is it that you can invest in?
There’s no point in focusing on things that you have no control over and that you can't have because if you focus on the things that you don’t—that you can't control, you'll have a very minimal impact.
But focus on the things that you can. You won't believe how many lives you've inspired, impacted, and saved versus the folks in whom wish that you could have left at the wayside by just focusing on things that didn't matter or that weren't gonna—that you couldn't have an impact on.
So that's the best case of advice that I can give people.
Um, but you know, let's move forward.
One step forward.
Yep, onward and upward!
Alright, until next time. I'm Mark Monroe.
I'm Jolen, and the place to be.
We didn't get the—uh—the—no, there’s no—that’s not that kind of a week. We’ll save it for life.
Until then, y’all, we'll see you. We'll see y'all in two weeks, and be safe out there. Keep your thesis strong.
Peace.
[Music]
Y'all, it's Come Up. It's coming.