Transcription
Yeah, but you've got to tame that beast. The FOMO beast is the most dangerous beast of all because that's when you do all the stupid things. Your friends are making money, and you become desperate to make the 100x. Then you start listening to your friends' trade recommendations, and you get into them. So, FOMO is really one of the beasts you need to tame. Trust me, I've been through it. I've been in this industry since 2013. Every time prices go down, they single you out and blame you as if you have done it.
In this interview with Raoul Pal, we explore Raoul's bold prediction of the crypto market reaching a $100 trillion valuation by 2030, the transformative impact of AI and AGI on the global economy and the future of work, and the rise of meme coins and social tokens as new asset classes in the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin is trading at $96,000, with recent market changes showing increased volatility. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with the latest in crypto and blockchain technology.
It's like everybody's hopes and dreams are in that banana. If everyone's latched on to this, it's okay, this is the time to make all the money. And then, when the reverse happens, you've shattered their illusions. It's scary; you have to take it really, really seriously. Coin is all about attention. Solana's got utility; they're building stuff on top of it. Yeah, a meme coin is attention, and we saw this with NFT communities. When people walk away, the attention disappears. Everyone's like, "Well, what happened to my utility? I was supposed to be doing this, and you were going to be building clubhouses." And then they found out, "No, this is a technology that is the new layer to the Internet." It's not just about tokens.
What's unique about this technology is it has token incentivization built in, which is why these networks bootstrap so fast. It's currently a $3 trillion industry. If I extrapolate out the rate of growth, the trend rate of adoption is twice the speed of the Internet. As the Internet slowed down in adoption rates because it gets more saturated, if we extrapolate the same, we get to about 4 billion users by 2031. So, I think the asset class goes to $100 billion, and we're only 3% of the way there. This is the largest, fastest accumulation of wealth in all human history that lies ahead of us. It's the big rebalance, how everybody can get involved, whichever country you're in, however much you have. So, it's the big one—the biggest macro trade of all time. That's primarily my interest in the trade.
The whole space is driven by network adoption. The more people join the network, the more applications get built, and the more valuable these networks become. Beyond that, it's then broken down to different companies or projects selling block space. That's all they do, which is data storage or essentially that block or distributed ledger. They've all got a different sales approach. Bitcoin has, "We're the most trusted; we're secure." Ethereum is like, "We're the big one." Solana is like, "We're the fast retail." So, everyone is selling block space, but again, we're all incentivized to get passionate behind these things because of the tokens.
This whole thing is being driven by a big macro trend. The big macro trend is the basement of currencies. As liquidity gets pushed into the markets every four years when the governments roll their debt, this is driven by everything. I call it the "everything code," and the work that I did shows that every four years, governments need to refinance their debts. What they do is inject massive liquidity to be able to do it and try to get interest rates lower. So, as we do that, it creates a perfect four-year cycle, and it's not going to go away until we get rid of the debt equations and everything else.
So, where are we in the four-year cycle? I break them down by seasons, each year being a different season. Okay, winter being when liquidity is being taken away—2022, 2023—spring. Okay, the market stops going down; people don't quite believe it yet, but you see green shoots coming. But it still feels a bit wintry and cold and miserable. Then summer, which is what we're finishing now. Macro summer is the year three, the same year as the election cycle. Then we go into macro fall or autumn.
Raoul Pal discusses the potential for the crypto market to reach a $100 trillion valuation by 2030, how AI and AGI could transform economies and redefine human work, and the significance of meme coins and social tokens in creating new forms of community and value. Now, let's hear more from Raoul Pal.
At the beginning of the year, we go into the next fall or autumn cycle. That's usually the most explosive. So, summer starts to rip, and then we hit what I've called the "banana zone," which is when everything depends on global liquidity. Normally, it lasts until about November. Because of this cycle, it lasts until November, and we have different structures of these cycles. We had the last one, which usually has a peer and tax season. So, in March, people have to sell some tokens to pay taxes. It falls for a bit, and then it rips at the end of the year. Last time, it fell 50% over that period in 2021, and then it ripped, but it didn't really extend, and everyone kind of got caught out by the double top in 2017 and 2013. Well, they were different; they had the same cycle structure. It went to the summer of 2017, and Bitcoin 10x from there in four months. It's the same, and that's the blow-off cycle.
So, we don't know if we're going to get a stunted cycle or a blow-off cycle, but thinking about the political change and what's been going on, the probability has to be towards a blow-off cycle. So, that would be a much higher price than everyone expects. Most people have PTSD from the last cycle, and they don't want to overextend themselves. They're worried that they're going to be caught holding the bag, which usually means they'll sell early because the markets give as much pain to the most number of people as possible. Why? In 2021, everyone's expecting one of the reasons you're not seeing those super high valuations yet is because liquidity has not been massive. The more liquidity people earn, the more money funds make, the more money businesses make, and the more money gets recycled up the risk curve, and people start taking bigger risks.
So, I think it's still to come, but the VC markets had no exits outside of tokens. There's been no equity exits in any project. We need Circle to go public or get bought. We need some of the, you know, Kraken, and we need some of these bigger things to recycle the VC money to then nurture the whole space up again. And then, as you say, if we've captured a certain amount of liquidity, yes, it's increasing, but then you've sucked a whole bunch into the casino of meme coins. It takes some of that away because this entire industry trades on attention, and there's only so many of us in the industry. So, let's say there's a million active people in the industry. Well, that's a million people's attention, and you've got 10,000 tokens launching a day. How much attention can we give to anything?
So, it really is this game of attention, and memes have got it now because everyone believes that they can make the next 100x. So, utility stuff, layer twos—nobody cares. It will come back because we'll have different investors coming to the space and looking for real value. It's just, I think, a nature of where we are. I think the next stage is a lot of the application stuff, the real-world assets, the deepening utility, gaming—it's all to come.
Yes, I do because they're social identifiers. It shows you were early to the space; you've been around; you understand the space. It's an identifier, right? But that PFP business will come back in various forms. NFTs, as a technology, can be used for everything—ticketing, any contractual term, OTC derivatives, you name it. So, they're going to get used a lot. I think Punk 6529 talks about this: this may be larger than the underlying tokens themselves. Yes, because everything we do as humans has contracts, and this is, you know, an NFT is essentially a smart contract.
So, there's that. But then what's really happening? The big move in NFTs is high-end art. So, copy and be and Feden have been getting liquidity again. Yes, oh wow, because as people make money, the richer people get, what do they do? They buy art as a long-term store of value. So, if you ask any, you know, go and look at any rich person in Manhattan, go and find a big hedge fund manager, and say, "Where did you invest once you made your money?" They'll tell you two things: property and art. Yeah, it's always the same.
Okay, so we're seeing that market coming alive. There are super sket artists; they're all being taken on 40-something. X copy, who's like the most legendary OG culturally relevant in the space—I own every single B edition. That's I had an idea; I own a lot, a lot, and I've been buying all this year. That's my big trade: I've been top-slicing Solana profits that I've made and locking it into art as a 10-15 year storage of wealth.
To watch the full interview, check the link in the description. Raoul Pal provides invaluable insights into the future of crypto, AI's impact on society, and the evolving landscape of digital assets. We would love to hear your thoughts on some questions: Do you believe the crypto market will reach $100 trillion by 2030? How do you think AI will reshape our economies and job markets? Thank you for watching. If you enjoyed this video, please subscribe to our channel, like this video, and share it with your friends to keep up with the latest trends in crypto and blockchain. [Applause] [Applause]