Transcription
What's going on? Welcome back to Finan Journey.
So today, we're going to talk about Palantir. I want to go over some of the data points, break it down on what is really moving it, and cover everything else you need to know. But first, make sure, guys, hit that thumbs up, and with that, let's get right to it.
So, Palantir is down 3.02%, at 6340, with a low of 6544 and a high. It is starting to recover, but the broader market has definitely been hit by a lot of different attributing factors. One is just last-minute jitters associated with the upcoming CPI on Wednesday. Based on the current forecast, even if it does come in line with expectations, it is still relatively high.
So, on a year-over-year forecast right now, it is 2.9. Even if it does come in line with that and doesn't come in hotter, it still is possibly like a lose-lose type of scenario. I think the market's somewhat realizing that.
Over and above that, this just came out: it looks like there are some new export curbs on AI, which is, of course, putting a damper on the whole tech sector. So that is definitely causing a lot of ripples across the market. Let me know your viewpoint on that.
Aside from that, though, you're seeing a good amount of volume—16.1 million in volume in the first about 20 minutes of the trading day. The average is 86.1, and it is starting to recover. There are a couple of bullish things I do want to bring up.
One is this right here. I always like to bring up what shorts are doing in every video, not necessarily because they're squeeze plays, but it's good analysis on whether a pullback is justified or not. Right now, shorts are returning 1.78 million shares. If you factor that in, it kind of doesn't show that today's pullback was justified. That's how I interpret all that.
4.01% of the free float is being shorted, which works out to be 84.0 million shares overall being shorted. The cost to borrow average is 0.53, and then utilization is 4.62. Once again, Palantir is definitely not a squeeze play; I'm just bringing this up for analysis purposes.
This is relatively positive because there are a ton of shares available—in excess of 10 million right here. So if they really felt that today's pullback was justified, they could easily double down.
Aside from that, no recent news, nothing like that. There were a couple of new ratings that did come out. The last one was done five days ago: a $35 sell from Deutsche Bank, which has a 68% success rating. I think that's going to be the case as well for the foreseeable future. Wall Street has a hard time grasping what Palantir truly does and what that means for the market.
In general, you're going to have a lot of these lower ratings until Wall Street understands and can see Palantir's true potential, similar to what Daniel IES is able to do and Carl as well. Both have a 75 and an $80 price target on Palantir.
So just anticipate a lot of volatility. The consensus price target is $465, which represents 286.62 million in calls and 12 million in puts. 46% of all the options being done today are optimistic in nature, and it looks as though there is anticipation for it to recover to roughly around that $70 range.
So again, kind of good stuff for that. Bears, on the other hand, are anticipating a little bit more of a further breakdown to roughly around that $60 range. There’s going to be a lot of volatility, and even based on Palantir's technicals, it's kind of hit and miss.
I'll go over that in a second, but these are all the transactions occurring on the secondary market above $100,000. Nice strings of buys—big money is definitely buying the Palantir dip today.
Even aside from that, I've brought up in previous videos, it's good to see this level of buying and just attention from big money. You see a lot of big transactions: 1.57, 1.9, 1.1. I have a lot of different YouTube channels covering a lot of different stocks, and some popular stocks like big money just lost interest and kind of took a step back. That's not the case with Palantir; it is still getting a lot of good big money transactions.
I see that as good, only because it adds a lot of stability. I know it's kind of weird to say, but it does avoid a lot of the volatility, even with what's been happening with Palantir.
Let me know your viewpoint on all of that in the comments below. Aside from that, though, with it at 6529, it is trading between this S1 and this S2. In my last video, I did state that if it was to break below that 68, then potentially you could see a touch of that 63, and that's kind of what happened today.
The low did break below that, momentarily bounced off of that. So 6382 is going to be that strong support that you really want to watch for it to hold in the foreseeable future. 6827 is going to be the next strong target resistance.
I think just what's been happening in the broader market, what happened even last week on Friday, was largely unjustified. Some people might not agree with me, but having unemployment better than anticipated and also non-farm payroll—both of that is good.
Of course, that doesn't mean that there would be any rate hikes, and that's what the market was throwing a little bit of a temper tantrum over. I felt that Friday was unjustified and possibly a little bit today. I think today is a little bit more severe, but all in all, when it comes down to Palantir, let's go over the technicals and things that you need to know.
As of right now, it did break below the actual super trend, so that does mean it has algorithmic trading really working against it. Palantir is kind of swimming upstream a little bit, if that's a good analogy. But at the same time, it is trading below that 50-day moving average.
In Palantir's case, given the volatility in the past, every time it does break below that 50-day moving average, it does result in a 25% pullback. Of course, that's historical, so potentially what happened in the past might not essentially equate to the future, you know, blah blah blah, that kind of stuff.
But I think in general, Palantir has definitely had a very impressive run. Even over the last year, it is still up 22% despite the pullback. I think in general, there might be a little bit more further consolidation.
I myself did recently buy because I see Palantir's future potential, so I'm going to continue to dollar-cost average. But coming from a technical standpoint and just given the circumstances happening in the market, you could see a little bit more of a pullback.
But it's all going to come down to the data, especially CPI. If CPI does, for instance, come in a lot better than anticipated, then you could see across the board a next leg up.
So let me know your viewpoint on Palantir. Are you buying? Are you selling? Do you feel that there is a pullback? For instance, the next very strong support, aside from the FIB levels I talked on, is roughly this right here: that 100-day moving average, which is sitting at $52.5.
So that again could be possibly where it does retrace back to. What are your thoughts on that? Don't forget to hit that thumbs up and subscribe; I always greatly appreciate that.
One final thing: pop over to my Patreon. I give buy signals on stocks, options, and crypto. Many of them have been absolute bangers, so pop over there and take a look.
But with all that said, I appreciate all of you watching.