Transcription
All right, so a lot of crypto people on X are freaking out about Bitcoin being in a shooting star chart pattern based on the candle it formed on the monthly when December closed out.
We will break this down together. Listen up: this is more than likely the last stretch of the bull cycle. If history rhymes or repeats itself, things are about to get insanely good to the upside over the next several months, up until maybe August or September, where we will need to start being very careful. The shooting star price activity could play out, and that would be either very bearish or indicate we are in for some turbulent times.
At the end of the day, 2025, from a probability standpoint, is more likely to be a great year for both the stock market and crypto markets. The Federal Reserve just made some bullish statements Friday morning. What else do we need to know and be mindful of as crypto investors as the New Year kicks off?
Hello, I'm Crypto Casey, and welcome to another episode of Crypto This Week. Let's take a look at the latest global news stories affecting the markets as well as the macro environment at large.
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Sweet! Let's explore this whole shooting star candlestick FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) so we can be prepared for anything over the next month and in the short term.
In viewing a candlestick price chart with monthly intervals, each of these green and red bars are individual candlesticks, each representing a month of Bitcoin trading history. There are three simple parts of a candlestick we need to understand:
1. **Red versus Green Colors**: If the candlestick is red, it means the price that particular month closed in a bearish downward trend, while green candlesticks mean the price that particular month closed in a bullish upward trend.
2. **The Length of the Middle Section or Body of the Candlestick**: The solid green or red part of the candlestick—the top and bottom—represent the price Bitcoin opened and closed for that particular month. On a red bearish candlestick, the top of the candlestick's body is the price Bitcoin opened at for that particular month, and the bottom represents the price Bitcoin closed at for that month. With a green bullish candlestick, the bottom represents the opening price, and the top represents the closing price for that month.
So, as we can see, that also makes the coloring of a candlestick more clear: a month Bitcoin closed higher than it opened is a green bullish candlestick, while red is when Bitcoin closed lower than it opened. Simple enough, right? Cool.
3. **The Thin Lines Above and Below the Body of a Candlestick**: These are called wicks. Similar to a wick that comes out of an actual candle, the wick from the top of a candle represents the highest price Bitcoin reached in a single trade for the month, while the wick from the bottom represents the lowest price Bitcoin reached in a single trade for the month.
Now, here's what has people freaking out. Here's Bitcoin's candlestick chart on the monthly from way back in 2017 to now, January 2025. If we look here back in 2017, the months leading up to December were big green candles that ultimately wicked high up here to the all-time high of $20,000. Then in January, the month closed out red with this long wick before crashing back down into a bear cycle.
Next up, in the following bull cycle back in 2021, check out October's gnarly huge green candle. It whipped up to $67,000, and then in November, Bitcoin closed out red with this long wick that sent Bitcoin to the cycle's all-time high of around $69,000 before crashing back down into a bear cycle.
So, the long green candles with long wicks are like a shooting star. In chart analysis, if the next month closes out red with a long wick, it forms that shooting star pattern. When looking at this ridiculously massive green candle back in November, followed by December closing out red with this super long candle that took us to the current all-time high of $118,000, you can see—if we close out January in the red, it's not looking good.
If it turns out to be a classic shooting star situation, then we could be in trouble, or it could mean we just have a turbulent sideways consolidation period before continuing to trend upwards into another shooting star situation at a much higher price later on in the bull cycle.
Let me know what you guys think: is Bitcoin forming a shooting star that will send us into a free fall into the next bear cycle, or is the best yet to come when the continuation of the bull cycle shoots us to new all-time highs? Let me know in the comments below.
As for me, my random wild guess is the bull cycle still has several more months to go through 2025. Around this time last year, I made two predictions: one, Bitcoin would hit $100K on November 17, 2024, which it hit $100K the first time on December 4, so I only missed it by 7 days—not bad. The other prediction I made was that Bitcoin would hit $169,450 on March 25, and a year ago, I thought this would be the bull cycle all-time high.
However, a lot of things I didn't really see coming, like all the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and the new pro-crypto U.S. government coming in. My new random wild guess at Bitcoin's all-time high for this cycle is $420,900 on November 17, 2025. Yeah, super bullish, I know—way too optimistic—but those are the most fun types of random wild guesses. At the end of the day, who cares if it actually is remotely accurate?
Let me know what your prediction is in the comments below. Here are some other predictions floating around: Bitwise posted on X 2025 predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana—new all-time highs with Bitcoin at $200,000, Solana at $7,000, and Solana at $750.
Here's a chart of some catalysts versus potential headwinds, starting with catalysts being institutional investments, buying by corporate options, wirehouse approvals, U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, better regulatory and political climate, tight supply due to Bitcoin having Layer Two scaling, macro windfall like rate cuts, and China stimulus, and upsized allocations where 3% is the new 1%.
As for potential headwinds, it's a shorter list for now, with disappointment from D.C., leverage blowout, selling by government, meme coin mania failure, and disappointing rate cuts.
Just to add to the catalyst side with some more recent events, check it out: this Friday, Fed's Barkin says the year ahead outlook is positive with upside risk. The outlook for the U.S. economy in 2025 is positive, with more upside than downside risk to growth despite uncertainty about the impact of trade and other policies that may be pursued by the incoming Trump administration, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Friday.
Translation: the Fed will be propping up the market this year—bullish!
Here are a couple of other bullish events and developments to keep our eyes on over the year: Poly Market odds surge in favor of Solana ETF securing SEC approval in 2025. Poly Market bettors now lean towards an 85% chance of SEC Solana ETF approval by 2025, driven by rising optimism and significant asset manager interest.
As we've discussed on the channel, Trump picked crypto backer Paul Atkins as the new Securities and Exchange Commission chair, so Solana will likely be the first of many altcoin ETFs to launch over the year. That's why Bitwise's $750 Solana prediction may be a bit low. My random wild guess is Solana at least reaches $1,000 per soul. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
Another thing we started exploring together last year will gain a lot more momentum this year: AI-based cryptocurrency trading could be the next significant market trend. Continued AI agent development could result in AI bots surpassing human investors. According to Jad Ashro, co-founder and CEO of Anar Blockchain, AI agents will provide market insights, execute trades based on real-time data analysis, or influence market sentiment with an efficiency human counterparts cannot match.
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Another revolution we are on the brink of is the global financial revolution, where traditional banking and legacy financial systems will absolutely be replaced by cryptocurrency infrastructure and decentralized Web 3 platforms. Otherwise, they will be destroyed by quantum computing tech over the next decade. Crypto is already becoming quantum resistant—way ahead of the game.
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