Transcription
Hey, good afternoon everybody. It's Mike with SmartOptionTrading.com. It is Friday, the 15th of November, and this is your weekly recap and look ahead to next week.
Quite the week we've had in here. We were very sideways until yesterday; we had a down candle. Notably, I was out yesterday afternoon. I got to go watch the closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange—that's a bucket list item checked off. Thank you, Public.com, for making that happen.
Today, we got a gap down and follow-through, and we're underneath this right on the 21-day here into the close. This is a very notable level on the SPY. This is where we broke out from. This is the area you want to hold. We already went into it; we've come off of it here with about 25 minutes to go—actually 22 to go.
You know, we need to get back up and regain the eight-day and fill this gap to regain momentum. So the question is going to be next week: what's going to happen? We have virtually no data next week—it's a very, very quiet week, not much coming out from that. Earnings are all third-tier type companies. We do have retail, though—you're going to get Walmart and Target, but they're not market movers, is what I mean by that.
We'll see; here we are drifting. If they want to, they can come down and fill this gap. We'll go from there. Volume today was higher—was it huge? No, we're at 54 million shares with 20 or so to go. We're going to put in bigger volume, but it's nothing special, nothing huge. The market is showing a little bit of signs of weakness here. We'll see if it wants to continue to come down.
What else do we have going on? Since we're on it, let's start off with Bitcoin. Bitcoin has had this monster move. We've been trading Bitcoin names in and out all week. Here it is, just off the all-time high. Whether it was the micro futures on the MBT or Coin or MSTR or MSTU, Hut, Clean Spark—I've been all over these names. A nice big move here on Bitcoin as it continues to look very, very good.
The Q's are not looking too hot; they're ready to almost completely fill the election day gap, leaving a nice little gap up here. What is notable here is when you look at the SPY and the Q's, there is an island top here. An island top is when you gap up and then gap down, creating a trap for everybody. So everyone that was long up here, saying it's going to hold, is now trapped, and maybe they're getting squeezed out.
We'll see. Anyway, the Q's have been weaker; the IWM is also weaker—already well through that area. The financials are holding in strong. Look at this move here in the financials. They're green today; they're holding. Energy's kind of hanging in there as well.
Then we look around and say, "Okay, what else?" The semis—the semis are getting rocked. There's not much not to like about the semis here. Now we do have one big name reporting next week, and that one's been screaming at me, and I've been trying to ignore them—and that is NVIDIA. NVIDIA reports next Wednesday, and that's going to be a big one in this market. We'll see how that turns out.
Right, but the SMH overall is weak. AMD is looking absolutely sickly; it took out the earnings low and blurred below 35, and this 132.11 becomes an area of a must-hold down at this point. NVIDIA also is not holding up too well as we go into earnings back on the 21-day.
If you take a look around, Disney had a great report. You have two nice day moves, putting in a new high here and filling more gaps. Then Tesla also came down, bounced off the 8-day, and is pushing back up. You know, nice little move on that one today.
Outside of that, it's been kind of quiet. Square had a huge move, bouncing off the area of the 8-day. Amazon, which we traded as well, had a nice move, but a big gap down today and moved down to the 21-day. I’m still long some stock around that 200 area, but I sold a bunch of it yesterday into those highs early in the morning.
Apple had a nice day yesterday, but unfortunately, gave it all and then some back today. It did come in and bounce off my buy trigger. Google got smacked down again; you know, and it's just kind of what we’re seeing here. Meta's down 50 plus bucks this week, now off the highs, and you can kind of see there's just a lot of uncertainty going on—there's just a lot of weakness in different names. But the Bitcoin names and select names like Disney and Tesla are still holding up really well.
Can't forget Shop had a great report this week; you know that was a huge one. They’re holding that gap. Rocket Lab had a great report, but it's coming in—but nice little bounce there today.
As we go into next week, we'll see what we get. I'm going to stay focused on the names that are working. They're the crypto names like MSTR (MicroStrategy), which has been very strong; Coin has been very strong, nice bounce today.
What else, guys? Help me out here—what else is Tesla? Right? These are where I'm going to stay focused until something changes. Then we'll see what NVIDIA gives us come Wednesday.
Everybody have a great weekend! I'll get some charts done on Sunday morning, and I will catch you guys live in the room. If you want to join us, there's a link in the description below.