Transcription
Yes, and the thing that's so interesting about this is that this has happened many, many times in many, many countries over the past 200 years. It's just never happened in the biggest country with the biggest military and the reserve currency.
Yes, but if you do all the same things that got other countries into trouble with their debt, guess what? It eventually catches up with you too, even if you're the biggest country.
So, we have more from Lawrence Lepard. We'll hear from him before this video is out. This is from the Bitcoin party last night, hosted by Michael Saylor, so make sure you watch this one to the end.
And with that, what's happening to crypto? Crew Sean's coming back at you with another Bitcoin and cryptocurrency video.
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Now, take a look at the Bitcoin price. We see it coming in. We had a candle close on the 12-month. That's right, we started a brand new yearly candle today.
93.9k is the price, and look, we showed you this before: one, two, three—there's the peak. Then one year of downtrend. One, two, three—there's the peak, and there's a downtrend. One, two, and then right now we're in this third leg. Where's the peak going to be?
What if we take a look at this and try to make this make sense? It's not exact; it's not perfect. If we look at this trend line, the trend's your friend to the end. If we just could look at this in these types of terms, we started here, we went to a bear market, we came up and tried to retest this level, actually got above it, and actually closed above it, but then came right back below it over the next year.
Then came right back up, kissed it perfectly, and this looks like some type of inverse hammer pattern—hammer candle. It's not perfect once again, but if we come back up to that trend line for this year, where would that take us up to as a minimal target? That takes us up to $536,000.
Are we going to see something crazy to this extent? If we pull out our FIB extension from the swing low to the previous swing high, the swing high would be this candle body's peak up here, which would take us up to an overextended level over the 3.27 72.
So could that be what's in the cards for Bitcoin? We're looking at this on the 12 months, and this is a logarithmic chart. Once again, if we take this chart here and we copy this line, we can see some type of trend on the bottom of this as well.
As you see, it's not perfect, but this is a channel that we've sort of not really come down to until 2023. But could we come back up to the peak? And then if we come back down the next year, could we just come back down to that $100,000 threshold? That could be what's in the cards for Bitcoin and crypto.
But as you see, if this is any indication of what's to come, it's extremely, extremely bullish.
An update as you're looking at when these candles close for the 12 months, what the beginning of the year looks like, and what the end of the year looks like.
So look here: every single time you see massive appreciation when you're in bull markets, you see a decline in the first year after the peak. Massive appreciation into bull markets, with the third year being the most bullish, except in 2021.
Now, this may have gotten sold short; that's a potential possibility. You don't want to discount that. Either way you cut the cloth, we could see a massive rally to the upside going to the end of 2025.
And then, as you see, this trend is your friend to the end. You know, every fourth year is a bear market. There are other things you have to look at, not just this chart. You got to look at the Fed rate hike cycle, also the M2 money supply cycle—what's going on there.
But if that aligns with these patterns, you know, put some chips aside this year, take some profits, and wait for the markets to correct in 2026. But will this time be different?
So without further ado, let's hear what Lawrence Lepard—if you don't know his famous catchphrase "fix the money, fix the world"—is talking about at Michael Saylor's New Year party.
Let's hear from Lawrence:
"So, it's really sad what's happened here, and a lot of investors, sadly, are going to be flat-footed if they don't come to understand Bitcoin and what's going on.
The way things are going to change, as you point out, the issue is we are in a debt doom loop. You know, we've fallen for this Keynesian model, and we're now at the point where all of the compounding is causing the lines to go almost straight up.
So we've got, you know, Federal interest expense at $1.2 trillion, we've got debt of $36 trillion, we've got all kinds of unfunded liabilities. And, you know, as a result of this, you and I both know that what should happen is we should have a cleansing collapse.
But that would be almost a depression at this point in time. So as a practical matter, the policymakers are going to be forced into printing, doing what I call yield curve control.
What that really means is that they'll have to buy the debt because nobody else will. Yes, and the thing that's so interesting about this is that this has happened many, many times in many, many countries over the past 200 years.
It's just never happened in the biggest country with the biggest military and the reserve currency. Yes, but if you do all the same things that got other countries into trouble with their debt, guess what? It eventually catches up with you too, even if you're the biggest country.
Right? Yeah, and I'd push back a little bit on your characterization that we're not past the event horizon yet. I think that we've been limping along, kicking the can down the road more and more, such that if we were to have that cleansing collapse, it would be bigger than the Great Depression.
I think that's probably right, actually. That's a good point. So we're well past the point of no return, where they can't allow that to happen, and they're going to keep kicking the can until the can can't be kicked anymore.
Yeah, and therein is the title of the book, "The Big Print." I mean, I've been saying for five years I think the Fed balance sheet's going to triple in size again. You know, before '08, it was at $950 billion. They took it to $4 trillion, and they took it from $4 trillion to $9 trillion.
They've reduced it a little bit in the last few years of tightening, but the $7 trillion is going into some much bigger number. And it's just because it's math. I mean, this isn't an emotional view from my side; it's a hard look at the numbers.
I think the thing that's tricking a lot of investors is that we've really had 40 years of a great investing landscape. I mean, we had two bubbles that burst, but in general, even after those bubbles, things came back.
So unless you're as old as I am, you know, you've never really seen a real bear market over a long period of time in the stock market. I think that's a possibility.
And I think that in order—because the economy runs off the stock market, because the stock market creates a wealth effect and generates a lot of tax income for the government—if the stock market falls apart, you know, the economy is going to have a real rough time.
And the government's going to try and figure out what to do with that, and I think their only choice is going to be to print money, and that's going to be massively inflationary."