Transcription
Hi, this is K. Artech with Wicked Stocks, bringing you updates on recent stock picks. I recorded this video on Friday, February 28th, 2025. In it, I cover Amazon, Advanced Drainage Systems, OCTA, Futu Holdings, Coca-Cola, Advanced Micro Devices, Roku, As Space Mobile (SMCI), Alibaba, and Paler. There's a lot to cover here, so let's get on with it.
Amazon closed last week back below the 219.22 long-term channel top. It held this week. The settlement back below that channel top was an indication to exit a long position. This market is now likely, excuse me, to continue south into the lower 190s, or where we find the parallel support structures between 187.51 (channel bottom) and 191.84 (speed line support). I'll give you the rates at which those are both climbing. 191.84 is a target and an area that, if you swing trade Amazon or are looking to go long through the second quarter of this year, I think that is your next opportunity. But if you're a near-term swing trader and you went long with the settlement above 219.22, there's no longer a rationale to stay long. We are expecting a 3-to-5-week move, could be sooner, into the upper 180s/lower 190s. If you're short, profits can be taken; if you're looking to go long, that's your next spot. If we close below 187.51 in the coming weeks, forget about it—stay out of Amazon.
Let's move on to Advanced Drainage Systems. It is now approaching long-term channel support. You can start adding longs here. We haven't tested 1% above 109.33, but we're close to testing it. 110.42 is the level. These levels are rising 34 cents a week (both 109.33 and 110.42). You can buy in this area in anticipation of upward rotation over the next 3 to 5 months, or sooner, to the 148.38 descending channel top. If we close below 109.33 (throw in a 1% violation threshold on that—1.09 minus 109.33), there's no reason to be long Advanced Drainage Systems, and we're just off this as a play altogether.
OCTA Incorporated held the 2/3 speed line this week nicely at 86.77. We've come off of it modestly, holding above 86.77. Still anticipating 110.30 over the next 2 to 3 months, 127.52 into later year (3 to 5 months—that might be a little robust; I'm going to say into later year, over the next 5 to 8 months or so). That 127.52 is in reach above 86.77. If we close below 86.77 (that speed line dropping 55 cents a week), I see no good reason to pursue this stock on the long side.
Futu Holdings closed above its 109.76 channel top two weeks ago. It did test initial resistance in the 130.50 region before falling back to channel support. We are now just below that 109.76 channel top. If we close below 109.76 today, I say avoid this; if you're long, exit your long position. This thing is very susceptible to falling back into, you know, really kind of the mid-70s (I don't even show it here). If we close at or above 109.76 and you're long, you can stay long. The 130s (135.00 to 134.34) are in reach over the next few weeks (3 to 5 weeks), and over the next several months (2 to 3 months), the 149.59 rising channel top is still in reach if we close at or above 109.76.
On to Coca-Cola. Coke is now approaching its target after both buy signals that occurred in the span of about 6 weeks. Initially, it was buying support at the 63.6 longer-term channel top, and then, following that, testing about a month and a half later, we closed above the descending channel at 63.83. Both provided a shift to the upside. 73.53 is still anticipated; that old high is an area to scale out of at least some of your long position.
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). This short has worked nicely so far. About a month ago, we closed below this channel bottom at 119.70. Still anticipating what is now 67.29 and dropping; it will converge in April with the October 22 low of 54.57. But on the way down, you can scale out of some of your long position; take some profits at 93.11. We just might get a decent bounce off that level back into the 110s/120s, perhaps. I don't expect as much, but better to be safer than sorry and take some profits off the table. As we test 93.11, closing below 93.11, we could see 67.29 inside of 2 to 3 months.
On to Roku. Holding primary support still at 80.22; that was a breakout channel. You can go long; stay long above 80.22 if you're long right now. If we close the week or next week back above 86.75, that is another show of strength. Bottom line: holding above 80.22, we are still anticipating, in the next several months (3 to 5 months at the most), 116.39. If we close below 80.22, I see no compelling reason to stay long Roku. This thing could unwind back into the 50s and 60s over the next few months.
On to As Space Mobile (ESTS). It closed below 27.85 (or may close below; the day is still young; we have several hours left), but we are trading below 27.85 now. Following the settlement above that 27.85 channel top, the very following week reached the 330.1 descending channel top, and now we've fallen back. The idea was perhaps 27.85 could hold into later March, and we can then run back up to 330.1. But if we close below 27.85, I see no good reason to stay long; you should bail. You could even consider playing the short side down to channel support, that is 166.0. After all, we tested channel resistance two weeks ago at 330.1. With respect to the upside, I'm all in on the long side with a settlement above 330.1, and that's not going to happen this week, but it could happen in the next few weeks. If we can close today at 27.85 or higher, then 330.1 remains in easy reach over the next week or two. But if we close below 27.85, my suggestion is to exit all long positions, and if you're so inclined, you might play the short side down to 166.0.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI). A big pop to the upside following the settlement 3 weeks ago above the 413.2 descending channel top. The following week, we closed just above the more midterm channel structure, that is now at 557.6. The only problem is Monday; we opened below that structure, and that certainly allowed falling back to the 413.2 channel top. I didn't expect it in the course of 3 to 5 days, but that is what happened. That 413.2 descending channel top is really the beginning now of a range of support that ends at 312.4. 312.4 is rising a buck 84 a week; 413.2 is dropping a buck 72. They converge into a single point roughly over the next 3 weeks. This low 30s to low 40s, narrowing into the mid-30s over the next few weeks, is your area of support now. Whether you want to buy into that on weakness is your call, but this is kind of the last holdout I think before this stock just looks ugly into the second quarter. If we were to close below 312.4, I don't even have a target mapped out, but I can tell you it's back to those lows from last November and probably even lower. But until then, if you want a bottom pick, SMCI begins at 413.2, and if we close below 312.4, that is your exit strategy. You should have your stop loss; I don't think it should ever represent more than 2% of your total trading capital. That means you might lighten up on a position if you're buying into this, but this range does narrow weekly, so that makes it a little bit more convenient to buy into as opposed to buying a range; it becomes increasingly a narrow range in a single point. We do need to close back above 557.6 (that channel top I mentioned in the previous slide) to set off follow-through buying. Right now, you're buying the low 30s/low 40s, narrowing weekly. You've got 557.6 upside; that's your next meaningful resistance. You could trade that in and of itself; that is a decent swing trade in the order of 20% plus. If we close above 557.6, go long; stay long up to that longer-term resistance that is presently between 825.4 and 911.9, also narrowing weekly.
On to Alibaba. We got a big buy signal a couple of weeks ago, only to fall back. This rejection of a long-term buy signal is certainly a neutralizing of what we consider to be kind of a breakout that we're expecting to yield 1886.7 to 2032.7 within several months. But closing back below 1359.5 (and I'm assuming we will today; we're trading around 132.5 last), if we close below that channel top, if you're interested in buying Alibaba still, I do think there's a case to be made for 1232.9, but I don't see a V-shaped rally. I don't see a significant breakout to the upside following a test of 1232.9. I think you can bottom pick 1232.9, and then 1358.2, the hold that high area in the 140s over the last couple of weeks. I could see a consolidated approach playing out for a month or two, but for 3 to 5 weeks, I could see, following a test of 1232.9, consolidation in this high area before possible upward resumption activity. Closing back at or above 1358.2 today, February 28th, is needed to maintain the integrity of that buy signal. If we do close today at 1358.2 or higher, I do see longer-term bullish continuation still over the coming 2 to 3/3 to 5 months or so into the upper 180s to low 200 area. Until then, closing below 1359.5, my suggestion is to either A) exit or B) expect 1232.9; that's your next area you could buy into. But if we were to close over the next week or two also below 1232.9, this is a stock; the only thing to do is short this stock, in my opinion. That 868.2 newly formed rising channel bottom is then anticipated within several months. Closing below 1232.9, we've got the mid-to-upper 80s climbing weekly as a 2-to-3-month target. Holding above 1232.9 allows stability and even longer-term upward continuation. Closing above 1358.2, this is still a stay long or go long into the upper 180s/low 200s.
Finally, Paler Technologies. We just put this stock out a couple of days ago, and we are below support. So this route, the key reversal high from two weeks ago, the fact that it looks like we are likely to close today (that is Friday, February 28th), not only below the rising 1/3 line at 86.33, but also below that December high of 84.79, this all adds up to continued bloodletting, if you will. I do see the 461.9/515.7 area as a likely—with this kind of volatility, it could be 3 to 5 weeks from now, but it could also be 2 or 3 months from now. If we close below 84.79, exit your long positions. If you're comfortable playing the short side, you can anticipate then that narrowing 461.9 to 515.7 region. If, for whatever reason later today, we can close at or above 86.33, this stock can recover nicely over the next 3 to 5 weeks back to the 1254.1 high, but it doesn't look like it at this point in time. This also speaks again to risk management. I am a firm believer and a firm practicer of good to cancelled stop losses on any trade. I don't think about it; I put in my worst case. My worst case is always at or above the 2% drawdown on my total trading capital; that's where I begin, and then I will finesse it based on the technicals from there. Often times, it's less than one-half of 1% of my trading capital. This speaks to often times not going all in, putting 100% of your portfolio in one single stock. This speaks to diversification—10% of your portfolio, let's say, in a particular stock. If you can take a 2% violation (because we talk about the 1% violation, like below 86.33; a 1% violation is still a 10% move on the underlying stock if it only represents 10% of your trading portfolio), I hope that all made sense. Anyway, I don't mean to harp on that too much, but we get a lot of emails: "What should I do now? I bought the market and I'm down 20%." Well, you know, where was your stop loss? That's our first question.
So there you have it. Anyway, this is all I've got; I'm going to leave it at that; just hitting 15 minutes. Thanks for sticking with me. We'll be back soon with more updates. You have a great weekend.