Transcription
And now I welcome Alexander Borisovich. Well, there was a larger piece, so it was clear. Good afternoon. Now we will see everything, so it’s visible. Yes, we see the questions for discussion.
I will introduce you in 30 seconds. First of all, he is the IT director. Once we had a club of IT directors. You can hide this screen for now. Remove that banner; it spoils your beautiful appearance.
And the second question: we saw the theorists of Kung Fu, those who are for the idea. Now we see San, the one who is responsible for it, that is, the IT director who is dealing with it. You have background noise; those people are talking.
Alexander Borisovich was one of the first to switch to an import-substituting stack when everyone thought it would be fine. Just five minutes before the end of the world, people will think that everything will be okay, and some person will come and sort everything out. But he switched back in 2012, right?
So, let’s continue. I’d rather listen. Let me try to share what I’ve been doing for the last few months. I actually changed jobs; I moved to a different industry. Now I’m working in microelectronics. For 20 years, I was in shipbuilding, achieving what I could achieve. I think I did well.
Now I’ve moved to microelectronics, which is actually my first education. So now I’m dealing with things that fly. This transition was relatively painless for me. During this transition, I had time to actively explore what the world is living on.
I mean, it’s not that I wasn’t interested before, but I tried to analyze 16 artificial intelligence systems, asking them our main questions and compiling them into a presentation about generative AI.
So, let’s go. Geopolitical conflicts are escalating, with rising tensions in various regions, including Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The obvious answer is undeniable.
Yes, climate change is causing an increase in extreme weather events. We started to build northern sea routes, so the general trend will continue. I think we are heading towards a time when the polar ice caps will probably be gone.
So, we will return to a state where we will be growing peaches in Rybinsk. That’s how I feel.
The next stage is about three main breakthroughs in medicine. Well, it’s no secret that with the use of artificial intelligence, we have learned to treat certain forms of cancer and neurodegenerative diseases. There is a significant breakthrough in genetics.
In the IT club that Alexey Sergeyevich talked about, I am one of the founders. We communicate closely with the Yaroslavl cluster, and I have been to medical centers multiple times. Gradually, this is coming into medicine, and we already have it in the Yaroslavl region.
All research models are entered into a database, and then they undergo certain manipulations. This is technological progress, rapid development of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and renewable energy technologies.
So, what do I know about AI? I want to share. I’ve read many books and listened to many people. There may be debates, but these are the facts. Currently, the most advanced artificial intelligence models have an IQ level of about 220.
The previous level was 162, which is a low measure. Well, I have 142 IQ. You can visit the website men.com and measure it; it’s an absolutely measurable indicator regarding cognitive properties.
We see the overall dynamics; the yellow line shows how systems started in 2000 and how they are growing. According to forecasts, we will reach a figure of 300 soon.
This is generative intelligence, a system that thinks quickly and processes data it has collected from various sources. To put it simply, if our brain were the size of a Kamaz truck, we would quickly fill it with data. Naturally, we would conduct selections from the best that can be read in the media.
What models are considered on supercomputers? Naturally, no one will tell us about that, but there is another category, and these chips are not installed in personal computers. Everyone understands this perfectly.
So, moving on. The latest news is about a chip that has 100 qubits, apparently in some supercomputers that will operate on low-temperature refrigerators. This is the first chip that is being sold, meaning the technology has reached a point where we have the first thing that can be sold.
Well, here’s a link to Go. Why is this needed? The question is different. It means we understand that artificial intelligence technologies were developing even before this, in closed sources, in closed technologies. The numbers are completely different. Someone said it could be sold, and now it has gone mainstream.
In fact, I have been subscribed for many years to various YouTube channels about server sales. I’m a hardware guy. For the last five years, Americans have been selling servers only with artificial intelligence boards.
This is not even a trend. Well, AI tells us about cultural convergence, the increase in international initiatives aimed at preserving cultural heritage. Yes, this is indeed happening, but for some reason, our media in Russia show more of the dark side of life than the bright side.
But it’s known that the German government made a decision regarding Syria. Let’s return the Syrians back. But before that, millions of Syrians came to Europe and spread across it. They call it cultural convergence.
I’m not going to debate. For the fifth year, artificial intelligence is everywhere. In fact, I use it very widely, with some caveats. It helps me a lot. If I need to quickly obtain some information, of course, it needs to be filtered through three sieves, as we say, and in the end, you will get some information in a relatively short time.
Considering that I read very, very quickly, I read faster than I watch videos. In this situation, obtaining a dataset that has already been compiled and processing it, for example, drawing a mind map, is indeed a great find.
I even train my children on this; my kids use these models. It’s a good thing. The question is how it will be used. Either we grow potatoes or poke people.
The question of transport in the future is the mass introduction of air taxis. Yes, there is. Everyone is heading in that direction.
Energy innovations are emerging, with the appearance of the first commercially available solutions in the field of nuclear fusion. I asked GP about this, and he said that about 70 years have passed since the first ideas appeared.
We are told that this exists, but it feels like in the next 2-3 years, it will appear. All the metrics of artificial intelligence that are being discussed are from Google authors. They say that people are not needed for artificial intelligence; they need power supply, and they can fly away from the planet.
People are not needed; they will take care of themselves. They just need a source of energy. So, how will it go further? Let’s fantasize.
Well, read interesting data about nuclear fusion. We started talking about it in books from the 1950s. Well, 70 years have passed, and we are just standing before the first installations. Maybe it will appear in our lifetime, but this is also a feature.
The main threat is the increase in attacks on critical infrastructure. As you said, in the last two years, the number of attacks on infrastructure in Russia has increased 17 times in the last year and 12 times in the last three years.
The mechanisms that hackers use are clearly systems that employ intelligence mechanisms. These are no longer just hackers; these are groups that attack infrastructure using social engineering mechanisms and knowledge of vulnerabilities.
Moreover, vulnerabilities are being dug very, very deep, and there are quite a few successful attempts at penetration and destruction. No one talks about the country, but 90% of these groups that attack are located in Ukraine. They use mechanisms, and this is a very, very serious issue.
As far as I understand, they are already writing in the dark web that they will pay us a million if we don’t hack their infrastructure. They are very confident people.
So, we have encryption of databases, encryption of backups, and disabling of main servers. No one pays them because they know that no codes will be given to you.
Since we invest a lot of money in infrastructure, and our computing power is very, very large, this leads to the fact that if they are in the system for 20 minutes, it’s very scary.
In fact, read the statistics; it’s very dangerous.
And here’s the escalation of vacancies in the Russian labor market. Before leaving my previous job, I wrote a report to the director about what’s happening in the labor market.
Having read a lot of books, I can say that, first of all, there is a downward shift in the labor supply curve. Secondly, there is a shift in the labor demand curve. Thirdly, a massive surplus of vacant jobs can form with sharp changes in the structure of supply, capable of taking on various unexpected forms.
If we look closely, the spikes began in 2010. We were somewhat supported by the post-COVID period when we came out, but post-COVID also dealt a blow because many people learned to work remotely.
They consider changes to be a blessing. According to staffing agencies, 70-80% of people who are looking for jobs consider remote work to be the first and main condition. If a company does not offer remote work, they lose up to 80% of the candidate market.
The decline is evident.
In the third quarter, the expansion of vacancies can be driven by sharp shifts in labor demand structure when some segments of the economy activate while others collapse.
This is clearly visible in the data. If anyone is interested, I can share these studies.
There is a risk of more large-scale armed conflicts in hot spots. If we look closely, currently, only North America has no conflicts according to official data. All other continents are occupied: Africa has 10, South Asia has 16, the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific have 11, and in Europe, the flames are still burning.
I think it will continue to ignite further. This is a greeting to the strengthening of the trends I mentioned.
I probably finished my report. I would like to address an interesting trend that is happening now, which I don’t like very much.
I’ve been thinking lately that this has led to many people being disillusioned. For example, Aleev hears about the competition for projects. They have a benchmark for projects, and when we vote on other platforms, the quality of automation projects reminds me that, guys, I applied; give me an Oscar.
This Oscar leads to a general trend where the work of IT specialists in Russia is starting to decline. Their evaluation is decreasing, and I don’t like this trend.
Another interesting trend is the geography of projects. For example, in large cities, if a city has 600,000 people, there are many projects. If we spread the geography across the country, there is a significant drop in smaller cities with populations less than 600,000.
In million-plus cities, there are no projects; IT life is dormant there. When I evaluated and started thinking, I see the same city names flashing.
There are about 30 cities in Russia that are centers of automation; the rest are falling behind. This is very concerning.
Maybe I’m wrong. What can be done? The question probably goes back to education. People who study, the king always plays with the suite.
If you can’t find even a low-paid person who will come to your factory and start doing automation, whom you will grow into a CIO or CTO, then we probably need to move somewhere.
If there are no people in the future, how will they study? By the fifth year, where will they jump to? To a city where there is money?
There should be a mechanism to work out. I don’t know how it should be, but there should be a common track. I will get a junior, and with a junior or a tester, I will get a job in a city with 70,000 people.
Then I will move to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vladik, Kazakhstan, Yekaterinburg, or someone else. This is a common trend.
Therefore, there are no projects; outsourcing in a city of 600,000 is very difficult. A large company will find it hard to enter because there is no money.
Well, let’s say in X, which taught others, I mean, they complain that now they are hunting for people. They say excursions are not for adopting our technologies and business processes but to see whom they need to scan.
We are turning into a country of one city. Let’s not be sad.
No, I wouldn’t agree. Chekhov was from Kazan, and so on. Chekhov was from those points of density on the map. They are still present.
As far as I understand, people are going to Moscow, but I haven’t seen any projects in Moscow that have a significant effect. Siberia? Yes, great. The people of St. Petersburg are trying.
The south, like Krasnodar, has intelligence that is located with cancer in Moscow and St. Petersburg. They should correlate with the quality of projects, but that’s not the case.
By the way, is this a trend or not? When all this started, I stopped following it, but I remember with surprise that in the Valley, in a certain area, you know, Silicon Valley, two out of three companies won’t hire you if you worked in Moscow.
The remaining third will reduce your rate by 30%. There was such a trend. I thought it was local, but it turned out to be a very widespread phenomenon.
Working in Moscow, around 2020, was considered a depression factor in terms of resumes. Where is everything heading? In Moscow, everything is great; there are innovation clusters.
I was at Lomonosov; everything is great. There’s so much movement, conferences, and money for everything.
But again, the evaluation. That’s why I started with these various competitions. Expert evaluation is very difficult.
Usually, few people come out with something that experts can evaluate. In the best case, it’s about publications.
You either believe me that I have a cool project and a great presentation, or you don’t. Yes, I believe you. They voted. Well done.
That’s how it happens, and it’s not very good, to be honest. It will continue to go further.
In simple terms, you need to prove that you are not a freeloader and that you are not eating bread in vain. You go to the platform to say, “Guys, let’s see how real it is to create a methodology for assessing production systems, a methodology for assessing the IT landscape.”
Well, a guide for everyone. This was implemented, this was not. I think Alexey Sergeyevich Kislov probably has it. I have a feeling he promised us a concept.
We will see. Another question is how this trend will develop.
As for the master of fencing, you are an experienced coach, and I am much less so. In IT, I observe that professional skills are stronger than cognitive skills.
The will to win lies in the technical skills, in C++, in Java, but at the same time, he cannot concentrate on anything for more than five minutes.
Is this trend dangerous? Do we have cognitive skills as a bottleneck compared to professional skills in the IT world?
This is reality; there’s nothing to be done about it. This is not even a trend.
Wait, why does a programmer need a salary of 400,000? 150 for a psychologist, 200 for a trial, and they treat burnout.
And 50 for housing in Moscow? I don’t know; this is a very complex question for me.
I’ve seen this for a long time. The level of general competence has been very, very low for a long time.
I have the feeling that, based on the principle of a desk and 100 people who come, let’s say, in the Rybinsk Aviation Technology Academy, 47 people passed the Unified State Exam.
These are the ones who will go into technical specialties from the whole city. When I studied, there were 340 people.
This indicates that people are not going into technical specialties. They either go through technical schools.
IT is a complex discipline; it takes a long time to study, and you need to know technical physics.
Sorry, you need to know.
Those who we are talking about, there are transformations. They don’t need knowledge of the infrastructure part; they draw cubes and processes.
When there are many of them, and I know quite a few, my relationship with them is somewhat tense. They don’t understand the teachings.
I’m from the old school, and they are like, “We draw cubes.” They start to swim; they are afraid of people.
How will you get to know those who will be your objects of informatization? You need to go to them on foot.
This thing indicates that they have a desire to do something, but their path to realization is incorrect.
We followed the classical path. As we call it, the classic way.
An information security specialist may not know the infrastructure. People come, for example, and they start teaching them. Instead of two years of networking technologies, they give them six months of networking technology.
Then they pump them with security knowledge. In the end, they come and cannot communicate with a network specialist in the same language.
This is a common problem; it’s a problem in the labor market and in training programs.
We need to participate in the formation of engineering. They should know the qualification requirements, and they should probably be supported.
Maybe what we call a programmer is someone who wants to be a programmer, not someone who is one.
We are finishing.
Well, is it realistic to revive the engineering school? Secondly, will we have engineers again in high regard?
This was a respected profession, a special caste.
When I came to this microelectronics enterprise, I found a preserved and developing engineering school. They boast that they have doctors of science, professors, and academicians, and they are developing it.
They work with institutes because they know it’s right.
But in shipbuilding, for example, it’s incorrect to try to build a shipbuilding cluster in Rybinsk because we have three shipyards and one in Yaroslavl, but they are mastering funds.
So far, there are no specialists. Who will teach? Who will teach for five years?
I think there would be a benefit if someone came to teach. But who will teach? This is the most important question.
They ask me, “Does the SP fly or not?” Everyone is focused on the tools.
I say, “Guys, the first question is, on which Xerox are you multiplying cookies?”
You’ve been carrying cookies in a completely different direction for 30 years, and now you’re asking, “Where are the Russian Orthodox integrators?”
Well, they work for those whom we...
But okay, Alexander Borisovich, thank you for the fundamental report.
Thank you for your speech. It would be good if we could talk about data normalization next time. I think you also have something to say. Maybe at the beginning of the year.