Transcription
You know, I was joking with Andrew. Andrew is with us, yes? Or just, uh, Tyler? Yeah, okay, good, right here. Tyler Blake, I was joking with Andrew. I said I'm a pretty high capacity guy. I am overwhelmed by the incoming right now. Are you, Andrew and Tyler, in a similar position? You're the most high capacity guy I've ever seen, actually. I mean, I'm not just trying to like Charlie Kirk during the show will be managing like six to seven different high capacity tasks, messaging everybody all at the same time.
And, uh, yeah, he finally told me, like, "Andrew, I need some space." This morning, dealing with everything we've got going on, it's too much. I have a lot of people reaching out, and by the way, really, really great stuff. That's why I was like, "I got to make a call, got to make a call, got to make a call."
Alright, Tyler, speaking of incoming, what is going on in our beautiful state of Arizona?
Well, I want to recognize on that incoming front because we are managing right now thousands of people still that are out there through our, uh, at Turning Point Action. We've been blessed to have so many great full-time people and so many great volunteers right now in the state of Arizona as we close out this election. And, of course, no better way to close out than Arizona and Maricopa County. You know, it makes perfect sense—Mountain Time Zone! I mean, why wouldn't this be the last place to finish counting votes?
We now have over 1,500 people who have signed up, trained, and are out curing ballots. What this means is we ran the numbers last night. Charlie came over to HQ. I think we were there close to midnight again last night, and I was with the team, with Matthew Martinez, who will hopefully make his Charlie Kirk Show debut very shortly because we will be going up ahead as the goal.
But just crunching the numbers on what's left in Maricopa County, what's left in the rest of the state of Arizona, and what is the likelihood of how those votes will break. We did get a drop earlier today, as you mentioned on your show, of 23,000 ballots. It was a small drop for Maricopa County. It was a little bit unexpected because they've been doing afternoon drops, and they said that they were going to do a mid-morning drop.
But it broke 58% for Kari Lake and 40% for Ruben Gallego, which of course is way above what she needs. The last two drops were way above any—we estimated a 50-50 drop in Maricopa, and she will now exceed that.
Blake was talking about how—and the Blakemon on Twitter—the hopium. It's so funny because now you're seeing there's a lot of hopium coming out of the left. This is a really different perspective from last time, Charlie. With Carrie, last time we saw a lot of chatter against the right. You're not seeing that this time, which, you know, you can infer whatever you want from that. I think everybody's on pins and needles waiting for these returns to come in, and really anything could happen still.
I think it’s still— we talked about this being a 50-50 race for Carrie. It's going to be very close. You know, when I say very close, we're talking tens of thousands of votes is what's going to make the difference here, which is a fraction of a percentage point in this election potentially. But you look at this last time, the record's office, you know, typically they can't release results, but they know results before everybody else.
So when they see these results and they go through and they start adjudicating and curing and going through the curing process and setting ballots aside before they release things, they have to go through all the processes that they have to do in order to fully count and transmit the results. You start seeing people react and act differently, and definitely there's a different vibe in the room this time than there was in 2022.
In 2022, you know, there was definitely an emanating, you know, hotness that was coming out of the recorder's office, and the recorder was definitely not a Kari Lake fan. He was definitely not a conservative fan. Steph Richer calls himself a Republican, ran as a Republican, but had the support of all the Democrats in the state. That's why he lost his primary so handily. But we're not seeing that emanate from there again.
What we're seeing is this—and this is getting really into the weeds, and we'll talk about this a little bit more later tonight probably—but we have legislative races that are extraordinarily competitive in very competitive districts in North Phoenix, Scottsdale, and West Mesa, in particular in the Valley. These races are the ones that are seemingly having ballots counted last.
I have a theory that they're not only zeroed in on Kari Lake, but they're also zeroed in on the embarrassment that they're going to suffer if the Democrats basically give up five or six additional House seats and a couple Senate seats that are going to really tell a story here in Arizona of a massive red landslide. And, again, it's not—we're not there yet. We're a long way away. No Red Wave talk, none of that.
But President Trump does seem to have uplifted a significant amount of these—our ballot chasing program uplifted a ton of these people, and we may be able to squeak by with a bunch of wins at the local level. That's definitely going to tell a story beyond Kari Lake.
Andrew, do you have some thoughts here? Um, and just again, Tyler is still more bullish than I am on the Arizona thing, partially because of 2022 vibes. But I will say this, and this is breaking new—not breaking, but it's a vibe shift. Bill Malugin, who I really respect but definitely is super careful with this stuff—would you agree, Andrew?—has now said ballot counts in Arizona continue to go in Kari Lake's favor.
Keep an eye on this race, by the way. I have bookmarked on my Twitter everyone who called Ruben Gallego a victory. I have it all bookmarked, and we know who you are, including reporters, by the way, who can't do math; including reporters, just so we're clear.
The remaining math is that Kari Lake needs 52.84% of all remaining Arizona statewide ballots. Are there 700,000 ballots remaining, Tyler? Is that right? That's the—that's the debate. I send it over to you guys, the graph here. Let me send it over again; we can pull it up if we want to.
This is the remaining ballots by county, and again, it's less about—right? It's less by statewide, it's more by these different counties. So, uh, that's one of the things that's cool about this, Charlie, is you can see if they estimate like 77% of total ballots are in statewide. We're below that figure substantially in, uh, I'm going to say in—wrong intentionally—Cochise County, uh, in Yavapai County.
Blake's trying—Blake's trying to mispronounce all the county names just specifically to tick off the Indian tribe. Where is there 100% in from Santa Cruz County? Yeah, so the count is—there's basically a way to look at Arizona, Charlie, and it's—and Andrew and Blake. There's four buckets, there's four buckets. Okay?
There's two buckets in Maricopa County, and then there's the rest of the state. The two buckets of Maricopa County that are left to count are the early drops, so the late early drops—so the late early drops are Saturday, Sunday, Monday. Those have to be counted pretty much first. So that 23,000 that got counted today was from that bucket.
The second bucket is the drop-offs on Election Day. Maricopa County announced yesterday at 6 PM while we were streaming it's 229,000 ballots. Those should—and typically look a lot like Election Day. But—and the build-out of that actually looks a little less— a little less optimistic on that because they probably would have mailed in their ballots more consistently.
But let me repeat, those typically look a lot like the same as Election Day. Now we don't know how those are going to break. Last time they broke a little less; the time before that, they broke a little bit more. You have a scenario I think that's playing out this time, which is that people were mentally bringing their ballots because Maricopa County screwed up the election so bad in 2022.
There could very well be a possibility that there's an uncounted more conservative bend to this drop, mainly because people showed up intending to vote in person, but they chose not to vote in person. We had an undervote in person this time than what we were projecting, and I believe that there were probably more people that showed up and dropped off their ballots because they got there and they said, "You know what, it's fine, I'll just drop it off. I feel good about it."
The other two buckets that exist within the state, Charlie, Andrew, and Blake, are you have all of the remaining counties, and then you have Pima County. All the other remaining counties are going to break for Kari, and they have so far well over 65%. Yavapai County is days behind on their scanning because it's two ballots within each ballot, so it's two pieces of paper, and it's setting things way behind. They're worried they're not going to be done by Sunday.
You have Pima County, who traditionally has gone very slow. It's just—it’s just Northern Mexico! The University of Northern Mexico (UofA) does not produce the fastest results. No, I'm just teasing! I'm an ASU grad, so I have to tease U of A, but they have 136,000 ballots. Those ballots also on Election Day, nearing Election Day, tend to be more conservative because there's a ton of rural space in Pima County.
So if you look at the map that's on there, Pima County is huge, and what happens is that you get a lot of late earlies because people finally drop it in; they come in or they vote early or emergency, and then on Election Day they drop off their ballots as well. So you could have a really ugly Pima County drop. I think the ugliest is going to get for Kari is a minus 10, which would still be okay.