Transcription
Hi, this is K Rtech with Wicked Stocks, bringing you your daily Tesla report for Wednesday, February 19th, 2025.
Let's take a look at the charts. Before I actually talk about this chart, I just want to mention that on Tuesday, Wicked Stocks.com put out a stock pick on Verve Holdings. They are the communications infrastructure company.
There's a lot going on on that chart. We spell it all out: where to buy it, where to buy it again, buying on weakness, buying on strength. A big swing may play out here, and we give all the parameters for that. You can see that for free by going to Wicked Stocks.com, where you will also find our daily Triple Q, daily SPY analysis, our weekly Apple stock, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, etc., etc., and two stock picks a week. We'll be putting out another one on Thursday. You can see it all for free by going to Wicked Stocks.com.
Here we are with Tesla. It certainly dove below on the weekly chart. You can say that it spiked below the low 340s and came back late last week to close above it. It is the weekly settlement that, in my opinion, is sort of the key trend-identifying moment for most markets longer term.
Not necessarily near-term, not 3 to 5 days, not 2 to 3 weeks, but really this is more of a 2 to 3 month, 3 to 5 month dynamic. In other words, holding above the low 340s will keep that low 500 region in reach in the coming months, by the end of the second quarter, perhaps 2 to 3 months, 3 to 5 months or so.
So, holding above the low 340s is an area that you can still buy. Now, whether you would rather wait to buy on strength, that's another story altogether. Let me actually show you that.
If you're kind of a 2 to 3 week position player, 3 to 5 week position player, and you want to buy Tesla not so much on weakness in the low 340s but on a clear buy signal, that would then show the market likely to continue trending higher in the weeks to follow, anticipating then 506.91.
That would be a settlement on the daily chart above 401.02 to 447.8. This band of channel resistance is able to contain buying quite possibly through the month of March. From here, we could fall back into the low 340s again. If we close above 447.8, though, I'm going to call 506.91 a 1 to 2 month objective that could be within a full month with a high volatility move, or it could take two months with a lower volatility move.
Now, what is the indication for reaching 401.02? That would be a settlement today above 355.2. This descending channel top I mentioned is kind of our short-term swing trade, selling perhaps 355.2, buying back in the 3480 to 3444 region. In fact, rather than a 3 to 5 day swing trade, this is dropping at such a pace that this is more of a day trade, truth be told.
Now, if we happen to push through, especially if we happen to open today above 355.2, we could actually reach 373.04 on an intraday basis. That is that early January low we took out about a week and a half, two weeks ago. It's minor resistance on the way up, but given the context of everything I see here, it just may contain buying pressures for the balance of the day.
So, pushing, especially opening today above 355.2, you should allow 373.04. Day traders, I see no compelling reason to be short Tesla if we are above 355.2. You should allow 373.04. In other words, you can play the long side above 355.2, 373.04 in reach.
If we close today above 355.2, we have, I'm going to call this a 1 to 3 week objective, depending on volatility once again. But if we close above 355.2, this area at 401.02 to 447.8 dropping daily, then likely within one to three weeks, we can trend out, as I say, into later March.
Fall away, perhaps it would be a settlement above 447.8 that would then clearly indicate 506.91 as a 1 to 2 month target. As I've said earlier, though, I see that upper area 506.91 as likely for the 3 to 5 month time frame.
So, if you're more of a position trader who holds stocks for months, for weeks on end, for several months, for 3 to 5 months, you don't want to be short Tesla above the low 340s. You want to be long, and you could hold out for 506.91, and you'll have more immediate gratification on that count if we settle above the 401.02 to 447.8 region.
Now for the downside, breaking or opening below 340.80, and once again, 340.80 is that longer-term 38 Fibonacci from the January 23 low against that more recent high earlier this year. 340.80 is a range almost four points wide.
If we happen to break or open today below 340.80, then 325.10 would be attainable today. Although this is a significant selloff, I don't expect to see that. I think if we're to test 325.10 anytime soon, it would require a settlement today, that is Wednesday, below 340.80.
Then yes, 325.10 likely tomorrow, Thursday. If we close the week, and it really is a weekly settlement Friday below 340.80, that would then indicate we've got a descending channel bottom at 297.16. This would be a 1 to 3 week, more like a 2 to 3 week objective.
But as I've been saying all along, a weekly settlement Friday below 340.80, and I'm expecting the 248.76 2-year channel bottom that can absorb selling on a quarterly basis, possibly into later this year.
So, this is kind of the big swing trade. Longer term, holding above the low 340s, we are anticipating the low 500 region over the next 3 to 5 months or sooner. Closing below 340.80, we are expecting the 248.76 channel bottom within 2 to 3 months or sooner.
Is there anything else to say? No, I think this is the key chart for the day right here: 355.2, a meaningful pivot point into later this week. Below which we retest the 340.80 to 3444 region quite possibly today.
If we can close above 355.2, we've got kind of a 2 to 3 week rally into the low 400 region, which is our next trouble spot on a midterm basis. I think that pretty much does it.
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That is all I have. I'll be back tomorrow, of course, with Thursday's Tesla report. You have a great day!