Transcription
Happy January 23rd! JLD here, and welcome to Micro Strategy Today.
Blackout period for Micro Strategy— is it coming? We're going to talk about an MSTR price prediction because we all love those. We also talk about Larry Fink talking about a $700,000 Bitcoin. Why is it that when the price of Bitcoin rises, it's actually easier for Micro Strategy to purchase? I get into details on that, and an oldie but a classic Michael Saylor clip you are not going to want to miss.
Now, this is not financial advice, and please comment below where you are watching from. We're collecting that data. I love seeing those comments; I engage with every single one.
Let's dive on in.
So here we are, starting the episode today with: does anyone know when the Micro Strategy MSTR blackout period will start? I hope it's January 6th. We have seen most of the ATM selling. Any clue about how many shares were sold? Well, it was back on January 6th, and Micro Strategy has purchased every single week since then. We are now at 11 consecutive weeks of hitting the ATM, which is doing what? It is increasing your Bitcoin yield.
Michael Saylor has promised that his commitment is increasing your Bitcoin yield. You, as a shareholder, will have a higher Bitcoin yield by holding Micro Strategy, and they're doing everything in their power to do that. ATM convertible bonds, we have preferred stock coming up, and then, of course, the earnings report is going to share some amazing things. I can't wait to see.
So the question is, though, we are now officially at the two-week mark, which a lot of people say could be the blackout period. We will know for certain probably this weekend, on Saturday or Sunday, if and when Michael Saylor does one of his infamous tweets about the Saylor tracker chart.
So nobody knows exactly what's going to happen during these next two weeks. We'll see if there is a blackout period or not. Time will tell. But I will definitely be reporting on that this coming weekend as soon as it happens or doesn't happen.
So we'll see. But just remember, every time he sells the ATM, a lot of people freak out, but he's just improving your long-term value as an MSTR shareholder. So if you are a long-term holder with a long-term horizon, you are winning.
Let's move on to the next tab, which is: every state should have a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This is Michael Saylor tweeting himself, and you can see all the states that have at least started the process towards this. At least some sectors of individuals within these states are pushing towards this.
I see that New Hampshire and Massachusetts are two of those. I'm really hoping that my home state of Maine, where I spent the first 18 years of my life, steps up and makes this happen. I'm no longer in Maine, but it will always be near and dear to my heart. So Maine, if you really are the way life should be, let's get going on that.
And congratulations to anybody who lives in these states that has a big orange B on them. I'm definitely jealous.
Let's go!
Dan Hillary says, "Obviously, we all want things to go ballistic and rip, but patience seems to be key. The setup is fantastic; the future looks bright. Don't let FUD bears get you down in the dumps."
I know for me, it's helpful to get off this app, think about the decisions made years ago, and be excited about how well things are shaping up. Pro Bitcoin legislation and liquidity are increasing. Things are good. Don't overthink it.
And that's one of the biggest problems that we, as shareholders, have and do: we overthink. That's why I actually responded to Dan in this tweet. I responded to his post here, and I said, "Dan, my X feed is honestly amazing because I only follow a handful of people, and those people are all incredibly optimistic, incredibly bullish Micro Strategy, because that's the world that I choose to live in."
So you can choose to live in that world, Dan. I choose to live in that world. I don't have to not be on X because I'm seeing all the bears and the FUD. I don't see them; they're not on my timeline.
And so for all of you that are watching this show daily and listening to this show daily, that's why I'm bringing you the bullishness, the long-term thinking, the support. I'm going to report the struggles and the challenges too because that's part of the journey, and we want a full-rounded understanding of what's going on. But positivity is always going to be the lead.
Let's talk about this post right here by Bitcoin Power Law. It is fascinating how closely Google search interest follows the current price. Meanwhile, MSTR continues exponentially growing its BTC value per share via compounding BTC yields, almost by stealth because very few seem to understand.
So you can see back here when it ripped, everybody was searching for MSTR, Micro Strategy, and then, of course, their interest died off. The retail went away because the price started going down a little bit. And what's going to happen when the price rips again? People are going to start Googling it and finding this video and these tweets and all these different things, and it'll be exciting times.
Matt says, "I currently hold these two beliefs and wrestle with how to put them together: one, Bitcoin follows boom-bust cycles that are not tied to the halving; rather, they are tied to the business cycle and liquidity. Two, it is very, very difficult to accurately time these cycles, and it may be best to pay the fee of volatility and ride the liquidity cycle up and down."
Everyone wants something for nothing, and markets don't usually reward the behavior of timing the markets. Very good post, Matt.
For me, I would be so sad, and I may honestly have a hard time ever forgiving myself if I ever just completely sold out of MSTR because I was trying to time it for some weird reason, and then it just went on the rip that we all know is going to happen.
So listen, this is a long-term hold for me. I am so excited to be part of this journey—the ups and the downs. It's a roller coaster. The people who have been riding it since 2020, even since 2022, and even since 2023, they have seen a roller coaster, but they have seen fantastic results.
And Matt says, "You can just draw stuff. $750 incoming in Q1. No time to explain." So he's just kind of drawing these lines on the chart with a $7150 target. He actually does have a post where he gets into super detail about how he gets to this target number for Q1.
I don't have the time to go into it right now for you, but I will post it in the show notes if you want to check it out.
This is a great post by Bit Strategy: everyone understands the rising Bitcoin price makes it harder to buy. Very few understand the rising Bitcoin price makes it easier for Micro Strategy to buy.
I'm going to read that last line one more time: very few understand the rising Bitcoin price makes it easier for Micro Strategy to buy.
Now, how is that the case, and why is that the case? Well, luckily, he responds in one of his next posts. Let's dig a little deeper into the mechanics.
Firstly, the rising price increases the value of our collateral—that's MSTR's collateral. Just like you can take out a new mortgage on your home if property value rises, the rising Bitcoin price gives Micro Strategy access to more debt. The more collateral you own, the happier creditors are to lend to you.
I think a lot of people could understand this first point because it's so clear. If your home price goes from $500,000 to a million dollars in "quote-unquote" value, you are able to take out more money—a new loan based off of that higher value. Same thing with Micro Strategy and Bitcoin.
Secondly, the rising Bitcoin price will ensure the strike price on our convertible bonds is hit. This means the fund managers that invest in MSTR bonds are happy customers and have enjoyed a stellar return. This encourages them to buy more bonds and to tell their friends too. It creates a virtuous cycle.
Don't worry about the pullbacks either. The lower share price in MNAV creates a more favorable environment for a new debt offering afterward. Rinse and repeat.
The deeper you dig into Micro Strategy, the more exciting it gets to me. We win on every side of the equation. When it rips up, when it rips down, holders of MSTR are winning because the underlying business of Micro Strategy, the strategy of Michael Saylor, is winning in both of those scenarios.
Okay, let's keep on moving.
This actually is a great graph that Bit Strategy shared. Micro Strategy bears look at the below chart and dismiss it. They argue that our staggering rate of Bitcoin accumulation must soon slow down as the Bitcoin price continues to increase. They fail to realize it was the increase in Bitcoin price which caused the increase in our rate of Bitcoin accumulation.
So what happened right here in these quarters? As Bitcoin price ripped up, so did Micro Strategy's accumulation of Bitcoin. Period. End of story.
I get it; Bit Strategy gets it. I'm hoping all of you are getting it. That's what the bears don't get. Micro Strategy has a superior investment performance than Bitcoin due to the Cantillon effects.
This is one of the major reasons why MSTR outperforms Bitcoin, both to the upside and to the downside. As a U.S. public company led by a multi-billionaire, we are very close to the source of money creation. This is called the Cantillon effect.
Everyone else is here—entrepreneurs, kind of close—but the ultra-wealthy, they're right below the money printing machine. This is what we have done to ourselves. We have placed ourselves next to the money printing machine. We have placed ourselves next to the hardest asset in the world, the best preservation of capital in the world. It's called Bitcoin, and nobody is closer to that than MSTR, than Micro Strategy, than Michael Saylor.
We are benefiting and will continue to reap those rewards.
Let's just end with a Bitcoin therapist. It's incredible how low the price of Bitcoin is right now. We have a promise by the current president of the free world that he will create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Other countries are not taking him seriously at all.
Trump is not blanking around. Larry Fink is calling for $700,000 Bitcoin, and the corporate adoption of Bitcoin is spreading like crazy. ETFs are dominating the entire market.
There's literally no doubt in my mind we are getting one. Trump has an opportunity to create generational wealth for the country and solve the debt crisis. His legacy will be written in stone if he achieves this task.
Do you really think he's going to pass up an opportunity like this? He is a non-conformist. This cycle will destroy your models. Bears will get slaughtered. No model can predict this adoption cycle.
I will pray for anyone who thinks I'm wrong. Your bloodline will suffer if you doubt what is happening this cycle.
Now, of course, the Bitcoin therapist is the ultra of ultra bulls, but hey, that's who I surround myself with. So let's go!
And speaking of Larry Fink and the $700,000 Bitcoin call, we're going to play that video right now, then an unbelievable clip from Michael Saylor you don't want to miss.
So gentlemen, take it away.
"If you're frightened of your debasement of your currency, or you're frightened of your economic or political stability of your country, you could have an internationally based instrument called Bitcoin that will overcome those local fears.
And so I'm a big believer in the utilization of that as an instrument. And so if that becomes true, and you want to, and you see that it could be a proper hedge against maybe hope security or equities, yeah, the question is, could you see a 2% or 5% allocation?
I was with a sovereign wealth fund during this week, and that was the conversation: should we have a 2% allocation? Should we have a 5% allocation? If everybody adopted that conversation, it would be $500,000, $600,000, $700,000 for Bitcoin."
"We went to Harvard Business School, and they taught the Micro Strategy case study. The professor calls me and says, 'Well, you know, the students are really excited. They studied the Micro Strategy story.' This is after we had done it and after it worked.
He said, 'We studied the Micro Strategy story. We said we'd like you to come in and talk to the class.' This is the greatest business school in the United States, maybe the most famous business school in America—the best and the brightest. You have to be the best students.
So this is what happens. I go to the class. I zoom in. I said, 'Yeah, well, I mean, the company was at the end of the line. We were going to have to sell the company. The enterprise was worth $600 million, and we were at wit's end. We tried everything we could possibly do for a decade; it didn't work.
So finally, we adopted the Bitcoin standard, and we quadrupled the stock price. The shareholders made billions of dollars, and the employees all made millions of dollars, and everyone's delighted and happy. It's good for Bitcoin and good for the company, and good for the employees, and the customers are happy.
And now, you know, and this is back when Micro Strategy had a market cap of maybe $5 billion or something. Today, our market cap is more than $30 billion.
Do you know a few months later, the professor goes, 'Okay, you've heard the CEO. What do you guys think? Would you do it?' And he takes a survey.
First student: 'I don't know; it seems kind of risky.'
Second student: 'It seems like an inappropriate use of shareholder funds.'
Third student: 'This isn't normally done for students; it kind of violates convention in corporate finance.'
Fifth student: 'We really can't see any major company doing it.'
I swear, I watched 10 students, ex post facto. You could say the facts are we ran out of options. The only alternative was to sell the company, right, and close up shop, and we're done—corporate death—or we do this.
And by the way, it works, and everybody made billions, and they're happy. Every one of them said, 'No, we would never do this.'
And so you want to answer your question? The world's full of conventional wisdom and conventional thinkers and conventional institutions. You can give them the answer; you can even take the risk; you can even prove it works. They will still stare at it and not do it."
Well, there you have it, my friends. Another episode of Micro Strategy Today. If you got value today and you haven't already, please drop a comment below about where you're watching from, feedback for the video, any word you want to say, both kind or constructive. It's helping me make the show better, so thank you.
The show is not financial advice, and I am going to share my receipt from yesterday of buying 0.546 of a Micro Strategy share for $211. The price point was $386, and that was at 10:15 a.m. Eastern time yesterday.
So every day, $210, $211 will be purchased by yours truly of Micro Strategy for all of 2025. Who knows? I may discontinue this in perpetuity.
And then I have my tracker, which I will share with you every single Saturday, which shows you every single purchase with the lots, the gain percentage, and the total dollar amount gain, etc., etc.
Because when it comes to Micro Strategy and Michael Saylor, remember, there is no second best. What's the second best? There is no second best.