Transcription
[Applause] [Music] Coming up on Jerusalem Dateline: the end of an era in Syria as the Assad regime topples after a brutal reign of five decades. Jubilation in the Syrian streets, but what's next for the region and for Israel? Military expert Jonathan Krias breaks it down with Gordon Robertson, and Middle East analyst John Waggy looks at the plight of Christians. Plus, a chance to support hard-hit Israeli businesses just in time for the holidays. All this and more coming up on this edition of Jerusalem Dateline.
Hello and welcome to this edition of Jerusalem Dateline. I'm Paul Strand, filling in for our bureau chief Chris Mitchell, who's on assignment. One of the worst dictatorships in the Middle East has come to a sudden end. Syria has been liberated from the Assad regime, and Syrians are celebrating their freedom. Now the question is: what comes next, and can Syrians stay free? Here's the latest, followed by CBN president Gordon Robertson having a most revealing interview with top military analyst Jonathan Krias.
[Applause] Syria's streets are filled with jubilation as its people celebrate the overthrow of the dictatorial Assad regime. "Assad is gone! Thank God!" Assad and his father ruled Syria with an iron fist for more than five decades. The notorious prisons where the Assad regime tortured and often murdered hundreds of thousands of dissidents have now been emptied. The deposed leader, Bashar al-Assad, is in Moscow with his family, reportedly receiving asylum from his ally. The nearly 14-year civil war was suddenly capped by a sprawling coalition of Islamic rebels racing across Syria in a two-week sprint to capture Damascus. The main rebel group is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known as HTS. Its leader started out with Syria's version of al-Qaeda and still has a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S. Some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses. "We could have an Islamic State arise there, which will have profound negative implications across the region." While many of HTS's factions seem to have moderated, and most of the rebel groups are pledging to protect Syria's religious and ethnic minorities, Biden is wary. "They're saying the right things now, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words but their actions." Some 900 U.S. troops remain in eastern Syria; their mission is countering the brutal terrorist group ISIS. "We're clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum." It's been a long civil war marked by Assad committing atrocities, like using chemical weapons on his own people. Major ally Russia often joined in its jets bombing Syrian civilians. Iran and its main proxy, Hezbollah, also took part in slaughtering rebels in this latest fight. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah didn't come to Assad's rescue as in the past. Russia's attention is mostly on its war with Ukraine. Israel's dismantling of Hezbollah and weakening of Iran played a major role in keeping them from saving Assad. President-elect Trump piled on, writing, "Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now—one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success."
As for Syrian and Israeli relations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is offering peace. "We send a hand of peace to all those beyond our border in Syria—to the Jews, to the Kurds, to the Christians, and to the Muslims who want to live in peace with Israel." Still, the IDF rushed to take over the buffer zone around the much-disputed Golan Heights between Israel and Syria. It also struck chemical weapon sites and long-range rockets to keep them from falling into the wrong hands. Netanyahu says Israel will do whatever is necessary to protect itself and ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel.
Well, Jonathan Krias is a former IDF spokesman and a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He joins us now from Los Angeles. So, Jonathan, how did Israel's military successes against Hezbollah lead to the overthrow of Assad?
"Yes, good morning. Thank you for having me. I think it goes a bit beyond that even, and I think we have to go back to October 7—the murderous massacre of Jews at the hands of Hamas. That was really the first domino; that was the first Iranian proxy that attacked Israel. Kah followed suit on October 8th, and that started that two-front war. A year and two months after that, both those two organizations, both Iranian proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, are either destroyed or significantly weakened. From a Lebanese perspective, that is what paved the way for events to happen in Syria because there was very little fighting power to come to the help of Bashar al-Assad once the rebels started moving. So, a chain of events that I'm sure the Iranians did not foresee. They perhaps thought that they would be able to defeat the state of Israel and that Israel was weak. What is apparent 14 months after is that Israel is not only not weak; it is strong, it's focused, and it is now trying to make the best of a very dynamic situation in Syria."
Well, Israel has now moved into sort of a buffer zone at the Golan Heights. They took out some chemical weapons stockpiles to make sure they wouldn't fall into the hands of the rebels. The U.S. Central Command, I think for the first time that I'm aware of, issued a press release talking about targeting 75 different locations in Syria with Air Force weapons, B-52s, and fighter jets. In all of that, what's the risk to either Israel or to peace in the Middle East from these rebel groups? It seems that the U.S. is taking it very seriously; to hit 75 different targets in a single day is monumental. What's the risk here?
"Yeah, the risk is actually quite substantial, and the risk even emanates from the country of Turkey. Turkey has imperialistic designs, and if Turkey makes a move into Syria and starts taking Syrian terrain, I see that as a significant risk for regional stability. Moreover, the issue of if there's chaos and total anarchy in Syria—which currently doesn't seem to be the situation—but if it spirals into chaos and anarchy, that of course will be dangerous for Israel. You mentioned the issue of the proliferation of chemical and strategic weapons; that's at the top of the list. And again, what Israel is doing is really at the benefit of the entire world because Israel is taking off the market special weapons that I'm sure all of the terrorists around the world are very eager to get their hands on. Now that the Syrian regime doesn't control them, the best option is simply to destroy them, and Israel did that yesterday. I think Israel will continue to do so today and tomorrow.
There's also, last thing, a significant threat here towards Jordan. Jordan is an important Western ally; it shares a long border with Israel, and that country is under duress—internal pressure and instability with a restive Palestinian population. Instability in Syria may spill over into Jordan, and if that happens, that is not a good thing for regional stability, for the U.S., or for Israel. All of these topics are monitored, and I think that Israeli and American decision-makers are aware of it. There are opportunities here, and this is probably inherently a good thing that's happening—that Iran and Russia have lost their asset in Syria and that Iran cannot supply weapons to Hezbollah, and they cannot reach Lebanon. That's a very good thing that will have long-term positive ramifications for the region. But so far, it's still too early to say where this is going. Israel is watching this very vigilantly—massive troop supports on the Golan Heights and sending very strong messages to the rebels: don't even think about turning your barrels towards the West because if you do, you will meet a very strong and resolute Israeli response."
Let's talk about Turkey. How likely do you think they'll just annex the Kurdish region of Syria? They have sort of de facto military control over it already. Is that a likely outcome here?
"I think it is, and I think that the Turkish designs here are to try to annihilate or to dismember the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. By the way, these forces are loyal to the U.S. and have been supporting U.S. counter-ISIS operations very effectively. They're also the ones that are keeping a lot of ISIS terrorists in jail. I think that the Turks have long-term designs to try to get rid of them and to exert their influence on northern Syria. I'm not sure that they would stop with northern Syria. When you listen to state and when you look at Turkish state media, it is rife with very imperialistic videos and motives. That is not a good sign for the region because when you look at Turkish foreign policy over the last 10-15 years, it is expansionist. It supports the Muslim Brotherhood; it supports a lot of terrorist organizations around the world, whether it's in Palestinian territories, in Somalia, in Jordan, in Egypt, and in many other places. They're up to no good, and that is a concern because we could find ourselves in a situation where Turkey, a NATO member, could be within tactical distances of Israel, and that wouldn't be a good thing."
What's the likely outcome in terms of a provisional government? How deeply tied are they to either ISIS or al-Qaeda, or you mentioned the Muslim Brotherhood? There are so many different forces at play here. Do you have a prediction as to who's going to win?
"Well, there definitely is an alphabet soup of acronyms and names of organizations. It's a very dynamic and splintered issue here. Rebels in the south are different from those in the north and those in the east. The bottom line is, as the excellent story by your reporter says, it is HTS that are the dominant organization supported by Turkey. What I'm happy to see is that, as President Biden said, it seems as if they're playing nice. If they've implemented lessons from their failures in the past and they are aware of international perceptions, they do not want to be seen as total crazy jihadists that are taking over and butchering and doing atrocities. What I think we're going to see now, what we may be cautiously optimistic about, looks as if these rebels want at least the appearances of a very orderly transition of power. If they announce elections and go for elections and say that in half a year or a year we want elections, then that will be a very positive sign. I think what they're doing now is setting up an interim government where Jaani, the head of HTS, will be the interim leader, but it looks far more peaceful and less brutal than what I anticipated it to be, and perhaps that's a sign of cautious optimism for the future."
Well, let's hope. Last question: who's been funding them all this time? It takes a lot of money to keep that kind of force in the field. Who's behind it all?
"The same country that we spoke about that is a threat to regional stability, and that is Turkey. Most of the organizations and most of the fighting power, especially those from the north that started this whole revolution, they are funded by Turkey. Then there are other jihadi organizations that, according to information that we have at FDD, are funded by Qatari money, especially those in the southern part of Syria. The Kurdish forces have certain American funding and certain independent sources, so it's really a mix of various organizations. But I would say that the biggest emphasis here is on Turkish money. You know, when we look back at history, Syria was a country that was made into existence by two colonial powers, France and Britain, deciding for that to be, and then they gave them a flag, and it became a country in 1946. What we are seeing now might be the unraveling of that imperialistic design, where different ethnic groups will take different parts of modern Syria and turn it into autonomies. I think that the Kurds in the northeast are definitely vying for that, and perhaps the Druze population in the southwest will try to do the same. I think that we're in for very interesting times in the coming months and years ahead."
Well, Jonathan, thanks as usual for your tremendous insight, and thanks for joining with us.
Thank you.
Welcome back. We're now joined by John Waggy, our CBN News Middle East analyst. John, Christians in Syria are not letting their guard down. The head of the International Religious Freedom Secretary at NAE, Menah, also says the Muslim rebels in this takeover have treated Christians well so far.
"We haven't seen targeting of Christians, Yazidis, or even Christian converts or other religious minorities. They've actually announced safety for them. We're glad that they're not being targeted, but we also want them to be treated as equal citizens and to be able to stay in Syria and have a safe future there."
But John, so what does the history over the century show us when Islamic jihadists actually take power over other religious minorities?
"It's not a pretty picture, Paul. We're in the early stages of this, and it all seems a little bit strange that two weeks ago they went zipping across all of Syria, ended up in Damascus with very few fights along the way, and all of a sudden these rebels are in charge. It almost seems like there's a pre-planned thing going on here where they'll talk a nice game, but you know, in reality, the Christians of Syria, they voted with their feet a long time ago. When this whole thing broke out in 2011, the beginning of the civil war, there were about a million and a half Christians in Syria. They're now somewhere in the neighborhood of 300,000. My numbers may be off by a little bit, but not much. They’re in various parts of the country. They voted with their feet already, and the ones who are remaining there are not going to be real excited about trusting in the promises of a man who years ago was a committed jihadist, probably still is, and has a $10 million bounty on his head from the United States government."
Yeah, you know, that's interesting. Talking about that, they might have a little grudge against the Christians because the Christians, I understand, backed Bashar Assad widely, and so that could be a factor. And you know what's interesting? You talk about how they hardly had to fight. I read that the economy is so bad in Syria that Assad hardly had any money to train the soldiers. In some cases, they were starving, and so when they saw these rebels rushing towards them, they were just like, "I'm out of here. Why should I fight for this guy? He's not even paying me my paycheck." So, you know, it was a dark turn in Syria well before these guys charged in. The soldiers were already demoralized to pieces.
"Yeah, and here's another thing, and this goes back historically even more because we're seeing a changing of the map potentially that rivals what happened after World War I on the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the early 1920s when they took out the pens—the UK, France—and redrew the map of this area. What they did was they put in charge people who were minority representatives. So you had a Hashemite king getting a consolation prize for losing Saudi Arabia and saying, 'We'll give you Jordan.' In Syria, it was a concession to the French, and the people who were in charge that put in charge ultimately in Syria, the Assad dynasty, were Alawites—10% of the population, even more of a minority than Christians. They had this situation where a minority rules repressed the majority, and now the majority is coming back into the fore in Syria. What will be the result of that? One thing we know for sure is that Turkey wants its designs on Syria. At this point, the Russians are somewhat out the door, but they're not completely out. So you have all these competing factors going on, and meanwhile, you have Israel reportedly putting tanks near Damascus right now. So they crossed well over the buffer zone that was supposed to be between Syria and Israel and are now taking care of weapons depots, chemical weapons, and other things with the help of the United States that they don't want to see later on when they look toward the future of this region. But we're seeing a real possible redrawing of the maps here—Iraq, Syria, Jordan, you name it."
Let's talk about the upsides that could happen. The most positive side: there was one of these rebels saying, "Israel, come invest here." It made me think: could Syria, wildly enough, end up in the Abraham Accords? Also, this angle: Saudi Arabia is supposedly feeling threatened by these rebels. Could this make them drop their reservations and join the Abraham Accords? Then we have this big triangle of Syria, Israel, and Saudi Arabia all united economically, wanting peace so that they can prosper. What do you think? Any chance of that kind of thing happening?
"I think it's hard to predict at this point. You left one country out of the triangle, and that's Turkey. What is Erdogan going to do about this? I think you're going to have—we always talk about the strong horse in the Middle East being so important. You have a strong horse about to enter Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, and he may have a lot to say about how this all goes down. I don't think it's entirely pessimistic that the outlook should be especially with Israel and the United States destroying so many of the weapons and implements that could have intervened. Plus, to have Hezbollah largely cut off in Lebanon. So if, as President Trump said recently, if Israel needs a victory out of this, and if Israel gets a victory, it could be an optimistic scenario."
Yeah, and what's interesting is about these rebels: Deng Xiaoping was a Chinese communist who turned to capitalism. So, you know, you just never know what's going to happen, and we just need to be praying about it.
Exactly.
So, whatever. John Waggy, our CBN News Middle East analyst, thank you so much for joining us.
The war in Israel since October 7th has had a devastating impact on businesses in the Holy Land. As Chris Mitchell reports from Jerusalem, two businesses are doing what they can to stay in business and help others do the same in the place where it all began 2,000 years ago. Zach Mrii, the owner of Zach's Jerusalem Gifts, says the war has hit businesses just as they were recovering from a long-term dip due to the COVID pandemic.
"First of all, I cannot say other than God is good, and His mercy endures forever. You know, it has been very rough." According to one business group, about 20% of the hotel industry has closed since the war began. As a result of all this, Zach tells CBN News he's seen members of one key group make a difficult decision. "Many Christians are leaving more and more. Lots of people are packing their bags, especially this time, you know, like the whole world is opening the doors of asylum, and we try to tell them, 'No, wait.'"
It's why Zach is pursuing two specific goals. "Number one is to maintain Christian families and maintain Christians to live here. We understand the importance of Christians to stay here—those who love Him and share His goodness in order to bring both sons of Abraham, bring them to peace, and bring them to know God better and understand Christ." The other can be seen throughout his shop. Zach seeks out Christian families to supply these gifts for his shop, and that helps them make their living. Zach also reaches a wider audience through the web, and his remains one of Jerusalem's most successful Christian sites. He believes that's very important, not just for business but for building the kingdom. "I 100% believe that one of the most important things is that the Christians here can influence both sides with forgiveness in order to start all over again."
Another boost for local merchants is Artab Box, which provides seasonal gift box subscriptions throughout the year and is especially popular at Christmas. It began in 2020 to help these folks stay in business during the COVID pandemic. "We wanted to find ways to support artisans who have really suffered as a result of the war. So it's been 14 months; there's been almost no tourism. We thought that our mission in COVID was really important. It feels like what we're doing now is even more important than it was back then, and the need is even greater." Each box tells the personal stories behind the products. "One of the artisans I want to highlight is this wonderful couple who they call Daria and Oek. They are survivors of the October 7 massacre. Daria and Oek barely escaped that terrible morning. They were there at the Nova Music Festival on the morning of October 7, and they ran away. They escaped; they hid in one of the bunkers, and then they had a feeling that it wasn't a safe place, and then they continued fleeing. It turned out that everyone who was in that bunker was actually killed on that day. They wanted to turn mourning into joy. They are a wonderful couple. Their company, which is called Aavas Stones, has a mission: how can they bring comfort, inspiration, and light into people's homes and lives through words? So they take Jerusalem stone—this is real Jerusalem stone—and they inscribe different sentences and phrases onto the stones."
This Christmas box also includes longtime favorites. "There's always got to be some snack, something tasty and sweet. So we have these chocolate date balls, which are delicious, which come from this farmer up north. And then we have this potato spice blend; it comes from a third-generation farmer who lives in the Galilee—a wonderful, wonderful family, and they make different herb and spice blends from local herbs all grown in Israel." Another gift comes from the Galilee. "As you know, they've had missiles raining down on them from Kiser for almost over a year now, so they've had almost no tourism. He relies on tourism for his business, so we're really happy we're able to work with them." He made these beautiful hand-dipped natural beeswax candles. "They smell really delicious, and they're really beautiful." Also included in the box: a recipe booklet, winter fruit infusion, and a Star of David mosaic set—all designed to bring the Holy Land to your door and support Israeli businesses this Christmas season. Zach has his own message from the Holy Land: "You're so blessed just having the influence of Christ and the Prince of Peace be born in your homes, be born in your hearts, be born in your culture and work. It is a big, big, big blessing."
Chris Mitchell, CBN News, Jerusalem. If you would like to order from either Zach or Artab Box, go to our website at cbn.com. Both Zach and Artab are offering a 20% discount to CBN shoppers.
Well, that's all for this edition of Jerusalem Dateline. Thanks for joining us. Remember, you can follow us on social media, and you can access CBN content through our CBN News and other CBN apps. Please keep praying for Israel and the peace of Jerusalem and for the safety of IDF soldiers fighting on so many fronts. For all of us here in the Jerusalem Bureau, I'm Paul Strand. We'll see you next time on Jerusalem Dateline. [Music]