Transcription
Germany is holding parliamentary elections today, choosing a new government and, most likely, a new Chancellor. The lead-up to this snap election has been eventful, so let's catch up. Hello, everyone, and welcome back to my YouTube channel! My name is Phy. I'm originally from Munich, Germany, but I've lived in Cincinnati, Ohio since 2016.
In my last video, I gave an overview of Germany's political parties and chancellor candidates. Today, I'll update you on events since my December update on the government crisis. We'll discuss attacks in Germany, Elon Musk's involvement in German politics, recent protests, and how the German election works—including whether I can vote and what happens after election day. Time stamps are in the video description.
First, a recap. Previously on German Politics with Phy from Germany: For three years, Germany's government coalition consisted of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which provided Chancellor Olaf Scholz; the Green Party; and the FDP (Free Democrats), a more conservative and economically liberal party. This coalition was also called the "traffic light coalition" due to the parties' colors. However, from the start, disagreements often played out publicly, making the government seem dysfunctional.
On November 6th, 2024, Chancellor Scholz fired FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner due to yet another disagreement, this time over the 2025 budget. The FDP left the coalition. Without them, the SPD and Green Party lacked a parliamentary majority. Chancellor Scholz called a snap election via a vote of confidence on December 16th, which he lost. Germany is now holding elections in February instead of September 2025, as originally scheduled. In Germany's parliamentary system, a new parliament means a new government (or administration, as you'd say in the US), most likely a coalition and a new Chancellor. Scholz is running again, but polls show his chances are slim. For more on coalitions and Germany's parliamentary system, see my November and 2021 videos (linked below).
Campaigning began intensely in January. Several fatal attacks shocked Germany and affected the political climate. On December 20th, 2024, an SUV plowed into a Christmas market in the eastern German city of Magdeburg, killing six and injuring almost 300. This resembled the 2016 Berlin Christmas market attack. Despite added security, the Magdeburg attacker entered via an unprotected emergency vehicle route; both the police car and the chain were absent.
The attacker was known to police, who received numerous warnings but failed to act. His motive remains unclear. Originally from Saudi Arabia, he arrived in Germany in 2006, worked as a psychologist and psychiatrist at a correctional facility, and had reportedly left Islam, publicly criticizing it and Germany for allowing the "Islamization of Europe." He supported the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany), known for anti-immigration and anti-Islam stances. Paradoxically, he helped Saudi Arabian women flee to Europe and believed the German government discriminated against Saudi immigrants. He was known to police in over 100 instances, most investigations dropped. Between November 2023 and September 2024, the Saudi Arabian government warned German authorities three times, but these warnings were dismissed; authorities believed he was targeted for being a dissident. In May 2024, he posted on X that he'd bring justice at any cost and expected to die that year. He's alive, arrested after the attack, but the motive and authorities' failures remain unclear.
This case caused outrage and was politicized. Anti-immigration protests, supported by the AfD and including neo-Nazis, followed. Foreign-looking people were violently attacked. Thousands created a candlelit vigil to commemorate victims and oppose racial violence.
On January 22nd, a 20-year-old Afghan man attacked a daycare group in Aschaffenburg, Bavaria, killing a two-year-old and a 41-year-old bystander. He was due for deportation, having agreed to leave voluntarily in December but failing to do so. He had a history of violence and psychiatric treatment. The attack wasn't considered Islamist or politically motivated, likely due to mental health issues, but is under investigation. Outrage arose over authorities' failings and lack of inter-agency communication; the federal and Bavarian state governments blamed each other.
On February 13th, a 24-year-old Afghan immigrant drove a car into a Munich trade union protest, injuring 39, two fatally. He arrived in Germany in 2016, had legal residence and a work permit, completed high school and an apprenticeship—appearing well-integrated. However, shouting "Allahu Akbar" after the attack suggests Islamist motives. Munich canceled Carnival events.
Other attacks included a Syrian refugee's stabbing spree at a Northern Wallia street festival in August (claimed by ISIS); a deadly knife attack at a Mannheim anti-Islam rally in May 2024 (killing a police officer, trial ongoing); and xenophobic and right-wing extremist attacks targeting asylum housing, Muslims, Ukrainian soldiers, and the Israeli consulate in Munich (attacker killed by police).
These attacks, especially those by asylum seekers and immigrants, fueled debate about asylum policies and safety. While the economy was the top issue in early December, the focus shifted to migration. Parties advocating for closed borders and asylum law changes—the AfD, Union (CDU/CSU), FDP, and partly the BSW—repeatedly raised the attacks during campaigning. Many pointed out that some victims were immigrants or had migration backgrounds; crime rates haven't drastically increased (though violent crime is up slightly).
My opinion: the political debate exaggerates the situation. Violent crime levels in 2006-2007 were higher than now.
Next, Elon Musk. He's the world's richest man and recently headed the Department of Government Efficiency ("Doge"). He also meddled in German politics, tweeting before the Magdeburg attack that only the AfD could save Germany, and after the Munich attack that the AfD was Germany's only hope. This garnered backlash, but AfD supporters embraced it. The AfD, a far-right party currently polling second, is explained in my last video (linked below). The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies some AfD branches as right-wing extremist and the party itself as a suspected extremist group under surveillance.
In January, Musk livestreamed with AfD chancellor candidate Alice Weidel, claiming support for the AfD. Weidel falsely claimed Hitler was a communist—a factually incorrect statement corrected even by AfD co-founder Alexander Gauland. Musk also appeared at an AfD rally via video call, suggesting Germany should move beyond past guilt, shortly after a gesture resembling a Nazi salute at Trump's inauguration and before Holocaust Remembrance Day. This was controversial. Friedrich Merz (CDU/Union), likely Germany's next Chancellor, called it intrusive and pretentious.
US Vice President JD Vance's statement at the Munich Security Conference that free speech is in retreat in Europe, and a CBS 60 Minutes documentary on hate speech prosecutions in Germany, also sparked controversy.
On January 29th, headlines read "The Firewall Has Fallen." A consensus among Bundestag parties has been to avoid collaboration with the AfD due to its anti-democratic tendencies (discrimination based on religion, differentiating between "biological Germans" and citizens, attacks on press freedom). This "firewall" existed since WWII. However, Merz's Union submitted a motion for stricter migration policies, passed with AfD votes. This was seen as a premeditated move, despite Merz's earlier promise not to rely on AfD votes. While initially non-binding, a subsequent bill on migration laws was narrowly rejected.
This "firewall's fall" caused outrage, and hundreds of thousands protested for democracy and diversity against right-wing extremism and Merz. Over 250,000 protested in Munich, 200,000 in Berlin. 99-year-old Holocaust survivor Albrecht Weinberg returned his Federal Order of Merit award, wanting to oppose cooperation with far-right politics. Marot Friedlander, another Holocaust survivor, also warned about current political developments.
The AfD's distribution of 30,000 fake plane tickets to people with foreign-sounding names—resembling those used by the NPD (neo-Nazi party) and earlier anti-Semitic tickets—is highly problematic (see my YouTube short, linked above). Merz claims this was a coincidence and the Union won't form a coalition with the AfD.
Many asked if ruling out working with another party is allowed. Yes, it's common. In Germany's parliamentary system, parties form coalitions to reach a majority. Parties often have limited flexibility in who they'll cooperate with. The Union rules out the AfD and the Left Party; the SPD rules out the Left Party and BSW; the FDP doesn't want to work with the Greens or the SPD; some in the CSU oppose the Greens. A Union-SPD coalition is most likely, depending on smaller parties.
After the election, parties must form a government coalition. A Union-SPD coalition is most likely, though a three-party coalition might be needed if more smaller parties enter Parliament. Parliament then elects the Chancellor.
I've explained the German election system in my 2021 video, but there are changes. German citizens over 18 who've lived in Germany for at least three months automatically receive voting notification. On election day (a Sunday), they vote at a polling station. They cast two votes: one for a direct candidate (winner-takes-all), one for a party (determining seat allocation, with a 5% hurdle). Previously, all winning direct candidates got seats, leading to an oversized Bundestag. Now, the Bundestag will have 630 members.
Strategic voting is common; people might not vote for their preferred party but for one more likely to achieve a desired outcome. Tools like "Wahl-O-Mat" and "Wähler-Check" help voters find aligned parties.
I'm eligible to vote as a German citizen but haven't received my ballot yet due to the early election date and distance from Germany, meaning I won't be able to vote. Many Germans abroad face this issue.
The campaigning phase saw chancellor candidates and politicians appear across platforms. Scholz and Merz's debates were surprisingly civil. Debates with all four candidates were more heated. Polls remain unchanged.
If you're a German citizen, vote today. Otherwise, let's wait and see. I'll post updates on Instagram and Facebook. You can also follow DW. My videos are now on Spotify.
Want a video on free speech in Germany? Let me know in the comments. Thank you for watching this long video! Cheers!