Transcription
all right guys welcome back to the
channel today is a massive day Bitcoin
down 8% from the high crashing 52% in a
day the S&P 500 also had its largest
crash its largest day down in four years
and if you remember back to four years
ago that was the covid collapse so this
is the largest days that we've seen
crashing on the S&P 500 since Co now on
top of that obviously alt coins are down
Market sentiment is dropping however
that could be resetting but more
importantly I think for the 18e cycle
this is something that I am now shifting
on shifting doesn't mean it's the end
but it's the first time I want to talk
about this publicly on the channel in
December of 2024 as we lead into
2025 so without further Ado make sure
you hit that subscribe button now if you
haven't already each of the day analysis
builds upon the previous day and without
that background it's going to be a
little hard to follow along over the
coming 12 to 24 months with what I see
coming up also like the video if you
enjoy the content on the channel links
in the video description for everything
I'll talk about later in the video along
with the Christmas sale we have coming
up for TI premium uh link to that in the
top of the video description so first up
let's have a look at the agenda as I
said I'm ready to start talking about
the 18year cycle in a different manner
but I'll get to that in a moment I'm not
saying it's the end but there are things
that I think we need to get ready for um
Christmas s talked about that and then
let's have a look at the big news
headlines over the last you know 12 24
hours obviously fomc has cut the
interest rates for the US by quarter of
a percent and we are now seeing the
biggest crashes in four years on the S&P
500 then I'll get over into cryptos
Bitcoins and uh I'll get across a lot of
altcoin today as many of them have
started to come down I'll start with
this video that I gave you on December
4th essentially it was December 3rd for
you guys not in Australia or Asia of
course and this is where the S&P 500 was
at it was sitting around 6,000 670
points and in the video as I'll play
here you can see that we're looking for
a pop up and a pop back down now if the
market did pop off and then pull back
that's probably going to be a little bit
more scary for the market participants
when I say scary I mean the volatility
Sparks a lot of emotions at that point
big volatile move up big volatile move
back down but we'll let that all play
out as you can see from the video I
posted over two weeks ago this is where
the video was the market popped up we
saw some more excitement coming to the
market some more greed and what I was
looking for is basically just a pop back
down into that position which leads to
further volatility as you obviously
heard in that video clip there I don't
know that these sort of things are going
to happen I don't know we're going to
get these massive draw BS we've talked a
lot about the 18-year cycle and where we
are in this winers curse phase in these
final legs of the market to the upside
this is high volatility games so you're
seeing a lot of volatility we saw the
vixs Go bananas look at that the
volatility absolutely go crazy spiked up
took out all of the previous highs there
at 24 I suspect that we'll eventually
find our way back into the bull market
Zone how long that takes I don't know
but we can take a bit of a reference
range from the previous times you know a
few weeks up to a month or two and from
there I think the game is going to get a
lot more difficult the game being
investing trading for whether it's the
stock markets maybe you've got ETFs or
into Bitcoin and cryptos things aren't
going to be easy like they were in 2022
or in 2023 or even in the first half of
2024 bull markets in my opinion from my
experience are way harder the final
years of the bull market I should say
because the bull market to me started at
the bottom we started from the lows in
2020 and also could take it back to the
next cycle as well if you want to go
longer term Cycles back to 2009 for the
US Stock Market right but the easiest
times are from the lows at 2020 and from
what you guys might remember here on the
channel in 2022 and 2023 this is a time
when everyone else was talking about a
bare market and recessions but this to
me now is the hardest times because
you're starting to see a lot more people
flip into the bullish bullish mindset uh
and then looking to buy dips on the way
up the problem with that you might think
it's well yeah if everyone sort of
jumping on board why wouldn't that be
normal like why wouldn't that keep
helping the market out the problem is
once everyone is in and how do you know
when everyone's in the market basically
when all the money is is in who's left
to buy that's the difficulty at the
bottoms you have a lot of people who are
not buying they are too scared you might
remember maybe for yourself maybe your
own story it's just part of the the game
as well you know we've all had to go
through this you might remember in March
you might remember so March 20123 you
might remember 2023 from that July to
October period it was very very fearful
times and a lot of money was not buying
in at that time they thought you were
that the market was going to turn into a
massive collapse and recessions and you
had all of the Harry dents and all those
sort of people telling us that the
market was going to fall in 2023 and
2024 and that was it the game was over
worst collapse since 1929 breaking 2020
lows it didn't happen but now a lot of
these people are starting to change
their tune you might not get the always
Perma bears like Harry Dent right that
are going to change their tune and
they'll tell you I they were right when
the market eventually collapse collapses
but from here now you're starting to see
a little bit more uh more money coming
in and so if more people are buying then
it makes the game a lot more difficult
because where are the bearishness where
are the bearish sellers coming from so
that was this chart here that's the
first thing I really wanted to to get
across volatility going to get a little
bit crazier personally I think these are
the hardest times and then I'll get to
my position with the 18year cycle in in
a moment as well the NASDAQ also had a
very significant day down and a lot of
those gains that were made from the tech
stocks have not followed through so the
last few days they've come crashing down
micro strategy I haven't gone
full-fledged get out or anything like
that with micro strategy and of course
someone always has a reason why the
things going to go down ATM this and
that for micro strategy keeps coming up
always selling that could be the case
all I'm looking for for a confirmation
of further upside and this is for
strength for micro strategy is to break
past $450 there are your tops just break
past that that's all that's all it's got
to do but for now you've now had two
days down on the back of what was meant
to be amazing news you also had the
reversal day on the amazing news of the
Bitcoin strategic reserve for the US was
considered by Trump obviously pal has
now said it's not going to happen but
we'll see what happens over the coming
months but now you've got two days down
here and it's broken the low at 355
closed underneath it getting close to
the next low here at around
338 and then you've got 50% levels and a
swing bottom there at 322 there's a Gap
a little further down in around the 280s
and then you have the major 50% level
here at
278 so from just a few days ago trying
to press to to Fresh prices it now from
the close sits only about 7 and a half%
from the 50% and that um swing bottom
around 8 or 9% and then back to the next
50% which is the next major support Zone
it's about 20% away do note the micro
strategy has done from that top to the
low it's already done a 22% drop so it's
not out of the question to do it in you
know roughly two days as for the rest of
the tech stocks yep we've seen a new
all-time high and then a reversal that
was Apple uh Amazon couple of days ago
new alltime high had a significant
reversal Google new alltime high and a
reversal Facebook also had a significant
reversal here Microsoft reversal Nvidia
not as bad but it hadn't climbed as much
as the others so it was already on a
downtrend and of course after all the
hype that Tesla had been going through
it's also hit a new all-time high at 488
now reversing but that doesn't mean the
game is over you can just see the
extension here and if you're following
the channel you know these sort of moves
are they they can't keep going right
there's the S to 10 day rule 1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 the reversal come so roughly 7
to 10 days you could even put it down to
7 days or more if you see it in the same
direction with no swing not greens or
Reds but just in the same direction with
no swing in the opposite direction it's
generally a sign that it's being
overbought and you're going to get a
pause at the very worst case or a
significant correction and that has
happened now on Tesla but the main thing
again with all of these stocks uh is the
volatility is increasing across the
board so be levelheaded with your
positions and try not to get shaken out
on the way up all right we got the fear
and G index hitting 34 now so s you get
a uh reset period for the S&P 500 down
at 34 so not a bad area to be the last
time we were down at these extremes was
at that August low so that's when the
Japanese carry trade Japanese Yen carry
trade came uh across for everyone and
everyone got sort of freaked out and
we're sort of back at those levels now
so for the federal funds rate we dropped
well the the the market pal has dropped
at a quarter of a percent it was
forecasted we got it but the majority of
people are sort of freaking out about
this because instead of it being four
Cuts next year he's talking about two
cuts and that might change again so the
market is freaking out they think that
there should have been more Cuts next
year I think it's pretty ridiculous to
have more Cuts but of course do whatever
the market is doing if just follow the
chart if it is going down follow the
trend maybe it's by the dip opportunity
if it's going up just keep writing that
Trend until the end now that might all
sound a little bit down I haven't said
that I think the markets are going to
collapse and that's the the all-time
high of course there could still be more
left in it but it doesn't seem like it's
ready to just jump back to New all-time
highs and in terms of a correction the
corrections are healthy along the way
into the uh the next move to the upside
for the support areas so for the NASDAQ
these lows in my analysis they're the
ones to to hold if they don't hold the
market is going to come down a lot
further and then we may have seen those
tops so if you're looking for longer
term Trend changing signals you have to
look at uh larger events and these are
the largest events of recent times
you've got the August low and I'm saying
that that is in because I don't think
it's going to break at this time because
we haven't seen any other breakdowns yet
you still have swing bottoms intact and
you still have 50% levels to go for the
S&P 500 the 50% level is about 5% away
from the current price and from the
all-time high is about 8 and a half% so
it might not be unheard of for the
market to drop to that level so around
5600 points which would still be a
strong support level being a strong
support level doesn't mean that the
thing has flipped bearish again the lows
back here at the the Yen trade that's at
around
5100 points and then you still have the
previous old all-time high at 4,800
points so if you take a measure back to
these lows that's quite a long way it's
about 177% to break that area and you
need closes weekly and monthly closes
below that and then back to the alltime
high that's about a 22% which would be a
b market like a technical bare Market of
the a drop of 20% or more so seems
rather unlikely but of course things
need to unfold day by day and that's why
we have the support levels a little
further up to to continue watching and
for now we've got that fear it might be
resetting and it could take a little bit
longer but you've got plenty of lows on
the way uh on the way to the upside now
the the big one here would be the
Russell this was the US election so
Trump pump everyone's going on about the
Trump pump it had already pulled back
once and taken out that low and this
time it's crashed back through that low
so basically the Trump pump has now
failed at least for the Russell the
pricing has come all the way back to
those previous tops closed in the Gap
and also taking back all of the gains
from anyone getting super excited into
the small stocks after the uh the old
Trump pump there now I've got some very
important stuff to get through with the
home builders ETF but I just want to
cover off cryptos and Bitcoin first and
give you a little bit more of a a hopium
spin here so following up with the
Elliot wave cycle Michael's been
covering this very very well on his
channel you got a link to this in the
video description go and follow Mick and
also follow him on X as well for more
updates we've been watching and waiting
patiently for a top here on the Elliot
wave and this is a wave three within the
final wave so I'm still watching this as
the final wave into any sort of top
right so we're watching over over all
there's still more to go to the upside
how much more is anyone's guess at this
point it could go to 120 it could go to
150 I just don't know what I pretty sure
I don't think it's going to reach any of
those ridiculous targets there was
750k um from Arthur hay nothing against
Arthur I'd actually like to do a video
with him I think he's pretty intelligent
but yeah I don't think we're going to
hit 750 in this cycle we're not going to
hit 1.5 billion that Kathy Woods is
talking about and Michael sailor he is
absolutely dreaming there is no chance
any of his Target
are going to get hit I don't think in
this decade so screenshot that and keep
posting about it also helps out my
algorithm but anyway on and back to
Elliot wave three top of three here here
is one two three this could be roughly
the top maybe we got a little bit
further but after today it seems like
we're we're beginning that move into
four so wherever that is we're going to
put a four in and then from four you get
wave five of the yellow one here which
is also the bigger term wave five so the
longer term time frame however five is
the end so once we get to the end of
five of five I'm not going to get greedy
and expect bigger moves to some sort of
made up targets but from those tops we
probably typically see more price
targets like 200k 300K maybe even 500k
from that from that point so just not to
get too greedy there what's happening
with the fear GD index we're sitting at
75 on the fear and greed index after
that 5% down and many cryptos also
getting absolutely obliterated taking
pretty significant dumps but the greed
remains we're at at 75 this also plays a
part in the volatility and that is the
liquidations we hit at a peak around
$700 million combined for the shorts and
the Longs today which takes us up to the
third highest day in the last month so
getting very close to it's somewhere
around the fifth highest day in history
maybe fifth or sixth right but it's
still a very very significant day of
liquidations which generally could spell
that a lot of the leverage positions are
getting washed out now if we do have
another big day you can see we do have
larger days as well which could also
help f um sort out the low for Bitcoin
and altcoins coming in another thing
that keeps dropping off at the moment
which isn't the worst thing in the world
is the search volume for Bitcoin and
cryptos which kind of leads to this
period where people are less interested
in in the price at the moment they're
less interested in investing so we're
just looking at the market sentiment
here and you're seeing it just drop off
ideally you want to see the lows come in
at previous high levels so you can see
the search volume here around 35 some of
the lows higher lows are around 18 19 20
and the recent lows we saw around 33 but
if you started to see it break down past
I would say below that High Teens then
we're probably in for a a longer period
of price consolidation before any sort
of move to the upside remember
everything that I'm saying here is is on
the back of we might be in a wave four
which is a corrective wave which then
resets the sentiment maybe the
correction is only you know to to 90k
95k we don't know yet right for BTC but
overall I'm still looking at it as some
sort of wave four which then resets into
the final wave so although this all
might sound dire it's just part of what
happens in the correction and we're also
seeing it here in the daily exchange
volume the the volume's dropped down to
80 billion and if you recall from the
previous videos over the last couple of
weeks we were watching for 80 billion as
a level that the market should remain at
and not go below that was the previous
tops here see 85 and 90 so somewhere
around a support zone of 80 to 100
billion of daily exchange volume using a
7-Day moving average that would be the
level to hold to then move to the upside
rather quickly but at the moment it
seems like it's dropping down and
breaking through that level which might
mean that this is that longer correction
into that wave four so we're just
looking at signs here that the market is
slowing down and giving us that uh
re-entry opportunity should it continue
higher otherwise you know the show's
over a little earlier than everyone
expected and of course there's always
going to people be people that believe
that and I think that's still healthy if
we still have more people that are
believing that now because we still need
more bears in the market in order for
things to go higher if everyone's
bullish the game is over because
everyone's here it's the party analogy
that I used often if everyone's at the
party it's only so long until the party
ends right but if everyone's not at the
party yet well then you got plenty more
time to go and in terms of a shortterm
uh signal that we're also watching which
was the Bitcoin ETF flows yes a lot of
uh I guess larger YouTubers like to use
this onchain analysis as reasons for
getting into the market I like to look
at it from a contrarian point of view if
you're seeing a lot of retail getting in
or a lot of people getting or at least
bit Bitcoin spot ETF inflows increasing
it's generally around either short-term
tops or a longer term top formation is
happening and at the moment for Bitcoin
each of these tops had been um
represented with high ETF flows so some
of the biggest days in history and then
the price didn't go anywhere same sort
of thing at the low some of the biggest
days out and the price basically
reversed and went up so what we want to
see is more and more coming in and
that's going to tell us at the tops in
and ideally from the lows you want to
see more and more flowing out that's
going to hopefully pinpoint another low
so over the coming days we'll have to
wait and see what this volume comes in
at but this is basically on a weekly
chart we saw a lot of inflows over the
last 3 weeks and of course in terms of
the price well nothing has really
happened over the last three weeks take
a measure from today go back 21 days uh
you're basically 96 to a couple of days
above 103 and then back at 100 now so in
terms of percentage not much because
when you look at it from the bottom
there's about 5 to 600% on the way up
and now the most amount of money that
we've seen to date is coming in above
$80,000 that was some through some of
these big days back here in November and
of course over the last few weeks we've
also seen pretty healthy volumes coming
in but the price not going anywhere so
it could mean that others uh well smart
money is selling out now as for the
Bitcoin um price analysis here we have
several support levels to the downside
97 94 and then the 50% level at about 80
call around 87 to 89k in terms of the
shortterm stuff so that's the longer
term the 87 to 89 let's have a look at
the shorter terms as well there's a 99
to 100 and then this level here at
around 100K which is obviously the
psychological level but for the longer
term outlook here if we do get any sort
of Corrections I'm not going to be
overly concerned unless we started to
get closes below
$87,000 that's the 50% and around those
previous lows on the way up had this big
move up and that was basically the first
pause so for a correction from the top
that would still be a healthy 19% down
maybe get a spike and then a close back
up but anything even into that 20% range
if it happened from here is still pretty
much on point with all the other
Corrections that Bitcoin has done in
this entire cycle except for the long
long uh and A2 month consolidation
and 144 days to that low you Gan
followers would know what 144 is about
if I got them on the exact right points
but nonetheless 144 and that was a 33%
correction which happened over 5 months
so I'm not saying this is going to be a
5 Monon I suspect it is going to be less
than this period here provided the bull
market is still on and for now there's
no macro signs to say that it's it's
broken down and the game is over yet um
so yeah that's why thinking anything
into this wall correction is going to be
shorter than that period we saw through
um
2024 what we have been tracking very
closely which is not helpful for the
Bulls at all is the usdt dominance so
here is the dominance and yesterday with
that drop it has climbed again to 4.1%
yesterday's closing price was
4.13 so what we don't want to see is a
well at least the Bulls is our Clos is
above 4 2% and then past these previous
swing tops at about 4.3 so around your
4.2 to 4.3 not going to be great things
for the short-term Outlook of Bitcoin
and crypto uh price increases and you
can see here on the white line which is
the total crypto market cap things are
looking similar to what happened back in
2021 at that first Peak yes the
extensions were a lot further but in the
early stages you had this low sorry this
High which represented the low and then
a correction and then another correction
and then you had this nice solid move
into that final Peak in May so are we
following something similar for now it
seems quite similar it doesn't mean it
needs to repeat exactly but I think it's
important to watch that area and how the
market responded because at the moment
you're starting to well the chart is
starting to paint a similar picture here
the only way that this can break well
that can fail and for a good reason with
more money coming in is a breakdown of
3.8% on the dominance and with the drop
of alt coins over the last 24 hours the
Bitcoin dominance has obviously risen a
little more here I'm on the weekly chart
just to cancel out some of the noise uh
still a couple more days to go until the
end of the end of the week obviously 4
days two days of the trading week and if
there is any flow back into altcoins you
would generally see this close under 58
cuz that's the 50% level here so 58% but
50% of the tool but can rise all the way
to 59 59.2 and still be in a weak
position that would be putting in a
lower high and eventually it it
potentially roll over right but for now
it's still in an overbalance in price
which suggests eventually you're going
to see further downside to the dominance
which is a good play for altcoins the
altcoin total market cap here so crypto
total market cap this one is
excluding Bitcoin eth and stable coins
so we call it the true altcoin market
cap
still lower Highs but higher lows for
now this could play out further to the
downside and the support level is still
there at 700 billion that could be
another area that You' look for support
and then start to load up your positions
for altcoins in that next move if we're
going to get that uh wave five out of
the lows so just keep watching your
timing keep watching your charts for any
sort of support levels and below that
700 billion you're looking towards the
previous tops at about
$640 billion we're not at either of
those yet I suspect we got further to go
on this one and that's going to be my
key level there so even if you're
getting in here and it drops a little
bit lower that's the game so you got a
couple of solid levels here that you
could watch for entries which is a great
segue to channel sponsors by it you've
got the crypto debit card bof and you
got no kyc along with coin cat as well
and then for the Aussies 20 bucks a free
BTC that's basically your onboarding
platform and then you can go crazy
elsewhere in the game so that's Bitcoin
dominance wrap-up that's the total
crypto market cap uh now let's have a
look at eth and the altcoins as per our
agenda and for the eth BTC we're getting
relatively uh balanced Corrections for
now there is still the possibility that
e BTC breaks down and none of this
happens because we have not got a break
above 0.04 that's the level that we're
watching Mark that up on your charts
0.004 that's pretty much key now for the
next move to the upside and ideally for
the overbalance in price point
046 so yesterday wasn't such I mean it
was a down day it's closed below 50% it
can lead to more but you're not seeing
this severe selloff like some of the
other altcoins in the market which could
be a positive once things turn around
now eth USD has broken below two 50%
levels here one is the short-term double
top that's this level at 3,800 and the
longer term um extension from the cycle
low to the current well the previous top
there in March projected off that low so
this one here is projecting price
targets to the upside 5300 was the level
I was watching but now that we've got a
couple of closes underneath this level
it's starting to find some trouble at
the 50% so although I still think there
well although the chart is saying
there's still the possibility of 5300
it's possibly going to take a little bit
longer because of the weakness that is
showing at this 50% extension which
means it just could take more time than
a straight up move and I think most
people can see that by now and the 50%
is basically confirming that at this
point so we're watching to the downside
if this minor double top plays out so if
you're in some positions here you've got
the 100% level at 3500 or a nice looking
level there that comes in with the 50%
you guys that are um watching your Gan
swings and your extensions here your 50%
you've got the 150% level and the 50% so
it's 50% of this range and then the
extension is 150 so a nice price cluster
there at around
3250 and then 3220 as well don't get too
greedy on that maybe maybe look towards
there on over the coming days salana on
the other hand uh is still rather weak
against its Bitcoin value but on its USD
it's still holding up it's dropped a
little more now to 207 but it's holding
up above 50% so any closes underneath
187 is going to be rather troubling for
salana moving forward into any sort of
wave five that comes up heang on the
list it failed at 50% so you can see the
importance here of these extensions and
how they have to work if they don't get
above those levels then you pretty much
come back and look to retest somewhere
around that low price of where the swing
was projected from so that's how we're
using these as strength and weakness and
then price projections as well breaks
and closes above probably going to see
high prices failures at 50 Cent probably
going to see lower prices and that tells
you at the time so it's basically like a
leading indicator that's what people
want when they're when they're trading
xrp on the weekly you've got a lower
swing top forming at the moment the
positive lower volume so there although
there is some selling taking place
probably some profit taking here for xrp
you still have good solid volume to the
upside and lowering volume to the
downside so this profit taking obviously
prices are down Reds are on the board
but you don't have as much PE uh as much
volume selling out at this point in time
so although it could keep coming down
maybe test the 160 again maybe test the
low at 180 for now at least this is
pretty much just profit taking
eventually looking to build up to the
next move so I've covered off almost
everything in today's video but I wanted
to mention this and leave it to the end
of the video for you guys that have
stuck around for over 30 minutes with me
first time in history I've changed my
position so I'm talking about the 18e
cycle here 12 years ago is when I found
this cycle found it through Phil and the
guys at property share market economics
our kill's put this together and we've
redone recreated the chart to bring it
up to date here with our company Tia
crypto we're in this winners curse phase
but where it ends is obviously anyone's
uh guess so I'm just trying to forecast
out and that doesn't mean that I'm
trying to pick the exact top I'm
literally just looking at the days uh
the the dates here in terms of years and
try to pinpoint it down to some sort of
quarter within that year at the moment
we're still heading up and this is the
house prices house us house prices and
it relates to the economy as well the
economy is still doing well stock
markets obviously had a day down people
are sort of freaking out they might
think that that's the end and the game
is over I've said for a long time
there's no below off top in 2024 there
was plenty of people talking about that
on X I don't think that's the case 2025
is coming into a different story and
2025 I think is where the volatility
increases a lot when everyone is sort of
on board in a bull market or almost all
or when you get the percentages of more
people than what we've previously seen
in for example 2022 and 2023 there
wasn't as many people believing there
was a bull market but I think now that's
starting to shift and you're hearing it
from either the FED who pal is saying
they think they've um skipped you know
they got through a recession and it
didn't happen so they've avoided a
recession you have the belief that Trump
is going to make things different this
time you have must with also that belief
that he is making things different this
time and I know there's plenty of people
who believe in what Trump's going to do
and all that sort of stuff that watch
the channel and they they might find
some sort of trigger around this but I'm
worried about my investments if you
think Trump is going to make things
different and you're willing to keep all
your money in the market and just Trump
is going to continue to make you
absolutely wealthy go with it that's
fine I personally don't think that's the
cas I think it'll be case for a little
while and my little whils range from 6
months to 18 months I have been in the
market for over 10 years I'm not talking
just about crypto I'm talking about real
estate as well so I've been in the
markets for a long time and to me a
short time is roughly 6 to 18 months
because that's roughly this winers curse
phase here it says you know roughly two
years but we are into it now in 2024 so
we might only have six to 18 months left
on the long side of it so I needed to
preface all of that with the next part
what I you know I'm changing my position
here I think it's important to have a
look at the house prices first you've
got house prices still increasing around
the globe I started here with Germany
you have the UK new alltime highs right
that's gone to new fresh high prices
some places in Europe and and the UK are
not at new alltime highs I get it but
we're looking at National prices as well
do do remember this is based off the US
however uh other countries around the
world will also have
pretty strong house price growth as well
France it has not been the greatest and
it's been like that for several months
right you had the top there in 22 and
it's still down in June 24 this is all
quarterly data here for house prices
across the globe uh but there stock
market isn't as strong as Germany or as
the UK either and it's obviously um
showing in their house prices as well UK
all-time highs and as I said Germany
pushing higher again after a low in 2023
we're now at November 2024 it's been
climbing that whole time Spain it's been
on the on the rise since
2014 Italy On The Rise since the mid
teens Netherlands new all-time high
Switzerland new all-time highs I think
this is Portugal new all-time highs
people will say well it's because of the
foreigners coming in doesn't matter
doesn't matter what the reason is the
prices are going up you can't stop the
foreigners at this point maybe one day
you will Greece nearly at alltime highs
again getting very very close to um to
Fresh prices there there and for my home
country of Australia we're at new
all-time high prices however the home
builders ETF something we follow very
closely when it comes to this cycle is
on one of its worst streaks in a very
very long time the short-term 50% level
has decisively broken in the last 24
hours but that is only a short-term 50%
level and I'll now be looking at longer
term 50% levels so this could be a
significant reset before we start to
head higher or it could be a low top
forming so maybe a bounce and then we
form into a lower top over the next 12
months and that is a major reason why
I'm talking about this now first time in
history I'm changing my position on the
18year cycle however that does not mean
that we are going down from this point
that was it the peak is in and we're
going down this point it very well could
be but I don't have enough confirmation
yet to decide that what I am doing is
starting to position myself in a way
that I want to
start to exit over 2025 and I talk about
this in far more detail because I have
more time to go through it in details
with Tia premium members and as I said
in the intro there is a sale on TIA
premium and the Tia indicator Suite that
Christmas sale I've just put up a an
update for my long-term portfolio that
is for my retirement fund portfolio you
can also view that as a TIA premium
member it's posted now for you in your
courses so if you're not a member yet
jump on board with that the links are in
the video description for TI premium but
if you are a member go and check that
out now plus I'm going to be following
up with where I'm going to be
positioning this money over the next one
two to 4ish years as the cycle Peaks and
begins to come down so if that interests
you for your own portfolios check it out
now with the Christmas sale you can also
get the indicator Suite with a very very
healthy discount on there too other than
that I hope you've enjoyed today's video
and I'll see you guys back here at the
next one make sure you like And
subscribe and have a fantastic day and
I'll see you back in the next one take
care guys