Transcription
It's been an unmitigated disaster—absolute disaster. It was never a good idea, but it was the will of the people. Even in the Brexit heartlands, like here in the north of England, people are reversing their opinion. Polls show that a majority now believe that Brexit was a bad idea.
Brexit—a single word that altered the course of the United Kingdom. It wasn't just a political choice but a bold vision that promised a new era for British citizens. It promised to reclaim its borders and regain economic independence. Indeed, the promises were enticing, but reality told a different story.
On June the 23rd, 2016, the UK decided to leave the EU. The Vote Leave campaign was built around their decision to pursue greater independence and take control of its borders. However, in 2022, the UK saw a record high in net migration of over 750,000—nearly twice the previous high. Apparently, this decision has led them to more dilemmas than they bargained for.
While they were part of the EU, the UK welcomed EU citizens to live and work there. As of 2015, around 3.3 million EU citizens resided in the UK. These people weren't just floating there; they were active economic contributors. Still, the supporters of Brexit didn't see them that way. Instead, they considered them a burden to the economy.
The proposition was approved on February the 1st, 2020, and the UK officially left the EU. This begs the question: have the Brexit proponents and supporters achieved what they dreamed of since this decision?
To understand the Brexit paradox, it's essential to revisit the Brexit campaign and the state of the UK during this time. As a member of the EU, the bloc's principle was applicable in the UK. This policy allowed citizens of EU member states to live and work in the UK without visas. This led to a significant number of EU migrants in the UK. The net migration reached over 300,000 in 2015, and EU nationals made up a substantial portion of the total number.
This level of immigration started looking unsustainable as it mounted pressure on housing, healthcare, schools, and the jobs sector. This pressure caught the attention of Brexit supporters, and immigration control became the basis for their campaign. They sold the narrative that once the UK leaves the EU, it would have enough freedom to control who comes in and goes out. They proposed that this control would significantly reduce immigration. They promised to regulate the immigration system and ensure that the citizens no longer felt threatened in their land.
This was a compelling narrative, especially for regions where the people felt left behind by globalization and had no real benefit from EU membership. While this is a commendable vision, the approach seems unable to achieve the ultimate goal. The Brexit supporters voted because they were concerned about job security, public services, and national identity. The Brexit campaign promised to take back control of the nation's borders and secure the place of the citizens, so they supported it.
However, it's been four years now, and the dust has settled, revealing the inadequacies of the Brexit campaigns. During the Brexit negotiations, the complexities of disentangling the UK from the EU became more glaring, and other consequences of this departure that were not considered became apparent. But that was just the tip of the iceberg.
The UK didn't feel the heat of the departure until they finalized everything and were officially declared independent of the EU. After the UK departed from the EU, many EU migrants had to leave the UK for other EU states. They left their jobs and houses behind, creating a gap in many sectors. Now, many sectors, including agriculture, hospitality, healthcare, and many others, struggle to fill the void.
This constant need for people to fill these positions led the UK to relax its immigration policies and open its doors to migrants again. However, this decision was not just done casually but borne out of necessity. Unfortunately, opening their doors led to more issues than they could handle. Contrary to what the Brexit campaign promised, the UK's departure from the EU has opened its borders rather than secured it.
There is now an influx of immigrants from non-EU states, putting pressure on locals who were once afraid to share their country. But how do they arrive at this point? Let's break it down.
One, the number of illegal immigrants went up partly because the UK can no longer repatriate illegal immigrants—that is, asylum seekers who often come from France—as it did before Brexit. This is because France and the EU are no longer obligated to take them back.
On the other hand, the number of illegal immigrants soared because the Conservative members of Parliament decided to adopt an Australian points-based immigration system in place of the requirement that immigrants had to have a job offer first. This is surprising because the aim of the Australian points-based immigration system is to encourage immigration. That is exactly what it has done in the UK, but the MPs seem to have been taken off guard.
How would a country seeking to curb immigration adopt such a system? Were they thinking that an Australian system meant fewer migrants? Australia has a massively bigger immigration program; Australia's whole economic system is based on importing more and more people every year.
Another plausible explanation for this increase is that, in the past, EU-based migrant workers only came to the UK for a short period to do seasonal jobs. Once they were done, they moved to other parts of the EU for seasonal work. However, with the end of free movement for EU workers, many temporary migrant workers have now become permanent immigrants.
Let's delve a little into this new immigration policy that has landed the UK in a dilemma. The UK introduced a points-based immigration system to attract skilled workers in various sectors. The system evaluates applicants based on education, language proficiency, and talents needed. The focus was on bringing in people who would contribute to the already failing economy.
This immigration system led to a surge in visas granted to non-EU applicants. In 2023, net migration to the UK was about 685,000, most from non-EU nations. Still, in 2023, there were five times more non-EU students in UK universities than EU students.
Sectors like healthcare, social care, and agriculture were significantly affected by Brexit, revealing that the UK relied extensively on foreign labor to boost its economy. Although Brexit restricted workers from the EU, it redirected this demand to other parts of the world. As these immigrants come in, the congestion and demand for amenities that seemed to motivate Brexit were already being violated.
This leads one to wonder if Brexit was worth it in the first place. The political rhetoric still wants to maintain the stance of reducing immigration, yet the demand for these talents to improve the economy seems louder and has prevailed over the years.
The UK has used various visa types to bring in more foreigners to work for the economy's growth. Many of the seasonal farm workers in the agricultural sector were from Eastern Europe before Brexit. After Brexit, they became short, creating a massive gap in the sector. This led the UK to introduce the seasonal worker visa scheme, allowing farmers to hire workers from other countries outside the EU.
Professionals from India, the Philippines, and Nigeria are brought in to cater to the chronic labor shortages in the healthcare sector. The health and care worker visa opens the doors of the UK to these qualified individuals who bring their skills and expertise to cater for the shortage in the National Health Service and social care sector.
In the hospitality sector, the UK relies greatly on migrants from South Asia and Africa to work in hotels, restaurants, and catering services. As the UK continued to open its borders to more migrants from non-EU states, irregular immigration and border challenges arose.
While a member of the EU, the UK benefited from the EU border management system and asylum processes, but since their departure, they've been left to handle things on their own. As you would expect, this is not going great at all. Recently, the number of people attempting to cross the border in small boats has increased significantly. The issue has gained widespread attention and led to many political debates.
Brexit has been so focused on legal migration that it trivialized the EU's efforts to ensure the borders are safe from illegal crossings. This lack of attention and a workable strategy for addressing illegal crossings leaves illegal crossings a major challenge the UK has to deal with.
How will these pitfalls affect the UK economy? From the labor shortages the UK has to deal with post-Brexit, the economy felt the brunt of EU immigrants who left the UK after Brexit. These are taxpayers, workers, students, homeowners, and stakeholders. These departures left a dent in the economy.
Cambridge economists and analysts predict that by 2035, the UK will have 3 million fewer jobs, 32% lower investments, 5% lower exports, and 16% lower imports than ever. This is not the only economic downturn the UK would face. Economists also predict that by 2025, the UK will have to deal with a decline of €31 billion due to its departure from the EU.
Let's leave out the future for a moment and discuss the current implications of Brexit on the economy. Recent reports reveal that the UK economy is €140 billion short—all thanks to Brexit. Brexit was expected to create more job opportunities for UK citizens, but it resulted in job losses for many instead. The opening of borders brought congestion to the labor market.
The Cambridge Econometrics report further revealed that London has 290,000 fewer jobs compared to the period before Brexit. In his speech at Mansion House in London in early 2024, even the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, called on the government to build a closer relationship with the EU to restore the economy.
Still, on the Cambridge Econometrics report, it revealed that the average Briton is about €2,000 worse off in 2023—all because of Brexit. From all indications, there is a possibility that the UK's economic condition could worsen as the year goes by.
In his speech, the Mayor attributed the UK's economic condition to the cost of the Brexit crisis. He said the only solution to the crisis was to rebuild trading and connections to their European neighbors. His speech supported what the Foreign Shadow Secretary said about this urgent need. They believe this is the key to improving the people's living standards and making the UK shine above its current economic challenges.
It's paradoxical that Brexit has created more economic uncertainties for the UK than they bargained for, and the Mayor's words on strengthening the bonds between the EU might be a great step for the UK's economic recovery.
However, there is another side to the coin. It can't be said that opening the UK borders to immigrants from across the globe goes beyond just trying to cater to the labor shortages. If it is just for labor shortages, why are they seeking highly skilled professionals with higher education and experience in sought-after fields?
This strategy should inform you that there is another hidden agenda to the post-Brexit immigration policies. Countries like Canada and Australia have successfully used points-based systems to attract skilled workers. The UK noticed this and became interested in a similar approach. They believe that to compete globally, they need the skills and expertise of these individuals to boost innovation and economic growth.
Being a member of the EU limits their ability to fully control this process, as EU citizens have the right to live and work in the UK without restrictions, which means there's no filter on the type of people who can enter. Now, as a result, many come to the UK expecting more from the system than they're willing to give back.
The UK needs high-caliber individuals who will contribute positively to the economy, and one way they seek to achieve this is through the Global Talent Visa scheme. This visa scheme attracts individuals with exceptional skills in science, digital technology, the arts, and other competitive global skill sets. They also have a visa scheme to attract healthcare workers and other professionals.
Now, the focus for the UK has gone from immigration to the kinds of people that come in. This leads one to wonder if the UK's initial problem was with immigration or with EU immigrants. From the post-Brexit immigration policies, it is obvious that the UK is not all about limiting immigration but about controlling and managing it to align with economic priorities and growth.
While the Conservative Party continues to consider the economic necessity of immigrants, at the same time, the Labour Party keeps calling for progressive policies to manage immigration. These parties are well aware of the role of immigrants in the economy and the overall global standing of the UK.
Although successfully separating from the EU, Brexit hasn't held the other ends of the bargain. Immigration remains a significant issue in the UK today. Job competition among citizens and foreigners remains, and the problem of identity remains. The economy continues to suffer from the departure, while the supporters of Brexit claim to have everything under control and are not willing to go back on their decision. The UK remains home to many more immigrants.