Everyone needs to own 1 share of this stock‼️

Holy smokers. This ain't no dang jokers. We have stocks making some insane moves out there. Look at the public account here today. 3.938 billion dollars. Oh my gosh. I said billion. I mean million dollars. I'm getting a little too excited. Maybe someday. Okay, maybe someday. But uh my gosh. I mean just record after record. Congratulations to everybody out there hitting all-time highs in your portfolios. Absolutely amazing.

Cava stock not doing so well. This stock is down about 22 percentage points after hours right now. I'll tell you my opinion on Cava if I think this is a buy the dip opportunity in a very fast growing kind of exciting um we call restaurant play. Uh we'll also after we get done cava we're going to do some overall stock talk. There's some stocks making insane moves like the planet's up over 100% just in the past 5 days. We'll talk about that's going to continue revolve AMD Palanteer a bunch of other stocks we'll speak about in this video here today. and I'll kind of give you, you know, my quick opinion on those stocks.

Okay, from there, we're going to react to some videos up here. Investors are misinterpreting a seasonal buying as a summer meltup, says, uh, Mr. Pie. Looking forward to reacting that one. Rick Reer went on CNBC here today. Said, "This is the best investing environment ever." Whoa, what are we talking about here, Rick Reer? Okay, I'm looking forward to reacting that one. Share my pins and perspectives. And then last one we'll react to is Brian Bellski talking about why he's brought buying Broadcom, Nvidia, and AMD. So looking forward to reacting that one.

Now, this is usually a video I'd post on the reaction channel, which is called Jeremoney. Thank you everybody that uh follows me on that channel as well. But that channel is having so many issues trying to like upload a video. So for this week, until YouTube figures it out, I'm just going to upload like reaction related videos on this channel as well. So you know, YouTube's not much help. Like you know, I'm a Google shareholder. Uh, some stock makes me a lot of money, but sometimes I wish their customer support was better. Let's just put it that way.

Okay. Uh, one thing, one thing all I need from you guys, please smash a like button. That's it. If you could just do that for me, that means the world. That's all I need from you. If you want to subscribe here to the channel, you can certainly subscribe and uh let me know if you uh are subscribed to both channels. I would love to hear from you guys.

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Okay. All righty. So, right off the bat, let's talk about Cava Stock. This one is down 22% after hours. Is this one a buying opportunity here? Well, here's the deal with KVA. Okay, the company is pretty exciting. it you it's I'll say it like this. It's basically a wannabe Chipotle but for Mediterranean food. If you've been to Cava, uh food quality is pretty good, pretty healthy. Not pretty cheap. I I'll say, you know, you're usually looking to get out of there about 15 bucks. That's no drink. Um, just from what I've experienced, I've been a few times to a few locations now at this point in time over the last two years, and it seems like you're looking at about $15 before you buy a drink or additional things or something like that. Okay? So, think of it as going to Chipotle, just a little bit more expensive, like maybe two or$ two to $4 more expensive than Chipotle. Okay? You go up there, you say, "I want this. I want this. I want this. I want this." Like Chipotle like experience. They put it all in a bowl or a pita for you and boom, there you go. Okay?

So, this company's grown rapidly. They're making a ton, they're building a ton of locations all over the place. Their comp store sales are positive. The results that just came out, um, I just got a chance to, you know, kind of glimpse over them. It looks like their comp store sales were really weak. Uh, looks like they were in the twos, which is, you know, not where you want to be for Cava at this stage of the company. You really want to see 5% plus comp restaurant sales, you know, every single quarter essentially when you're at the stage Cava's at. So to be posting a number with a two in front of it is not where you want to be for a company at this stage. Like if that's McDonald's, that's fine, but not for a company that's supposed to be like fast growing. All right. So Kava has an issue there, right?

Now the the the other issue with Cava is really the around the valuation of this company. Now keep in mind the stock's going to go down 20 plus% likely tomorrow. So the Ford P 2-year Ford P are likely coming down. So, there's a chance you could get this company tomorrow potentially at a two-year forward P under 100. Now, might sound attractive, but it's extremely expensive. If you consider something like Cake, right? Cake trades at a 2-year forward P of 14, let's say, right? Cake has two two banger concepts that going to be expanding all over the United States of America, North Talia and Flowerchild, right? Plus a bunch of other concepts that could be coming behind that that they're going to be expanding as well. So you know you could say okay if let's say cava was growing revenue at 5x or 6x what cake is then you can say okay you know I could understand cava being valued like that but here's the problem you know cava's is based upon what analysts have here analysts have next year's revenue growth for kava being somewhere around 17% right and they have cake being around 7%. Well, okay. So, a little over 2x. Basically, they have cava growing versus cake. Well, the problem is you're not paying a 2x valuation. You're paying like a 5x or a 6x valuation versus cake, right? So, you know, that's where you got to you got to look at the market. You got to say, okay, where's my money best put for the next 5 years? Right? That's what it comes down to.

Because I like all, you know, I pulled up three stocks here. I like every one of these. I would I would be happy to invest in all three of these. I'd be happy to invest in Cava. I'd be obviously I'm a huge cake shareholder, right? And I'd be happy to invest in Bros. But what it comes down to is where's the money best put, right? And it's not like I can just invest into a million different restaurant plays because, you know, there's so many other opportunities in the market. We're talking semiconductors, we're talking tech companies, we're talking tech conglomerates, right? You know, the financials, just random small cap companies. Like, there's so many opportunities in the market. So, it's not like I want to hold, you know, six restaurant stocks. Like I one or two is enough for me. So, that's a tough thing there.

And then, you know, here's one last thing I'll say about Cava here before we move on and start talking about these other stocks. Okay? I went to this location 99th of Madal probably a month or two ago. Okay? And it's an interesting location choice first off, but you know, I talked to some of my, you know, um, you know, extended family members about this location because they live in that area and I said, you know, did you know about this place? Yeah, we seen the sign. We had no clue what it was, right? Um, they had seen it many times and they had no clue like what this place was. And when we went to it, we went to it like peak dinner time essentially and it was a ghost town. Like we literally just walked up there and just started ordering. Like there was no lying. There was no like uh you know what you would think there would be for a concept like this. Which means what? It means they have a marketing problem. Kevin doesn't have a food problem. I don't even think they really have a location problem. Although it was a kind of a questionable location, I thought. Um but they they got a marketing problem. like people live in this area, they see this location, they see the sign that says Cava and they, you know, they just have no clue what it is or are interested in going or anything like that cuz it's like you got to market to people. So, it seems to me like Cava, you know, is really big in New York City. Okay, that's cool. Like you're really successful there. Well, the problem is when you expand to Phoenix, Arizona, you better let the people of Phoenix, Arizona know what you're doing, what you're up to. like you gota you gota you know market. So that's the thing with Cava. You know, if they can get their marketing more down, but the problem is you the more you spend on marketing, well shoot, it's going to be less profit for you, right? So, you know, these are all things to factor in. So, CB is just kind of a little bit of a messy situation. Their comp sales missed so bad that I just kind of put it, you know, it's kind of like in the penalty box right now is kind of the way I would put it for that one. Right. But it's in very intriguing long-term company in my opinion.

Right now, before we get into these reaction videos, you know, let's talk about some of these stocks making huge moves. Planet's up over 100% over a double up just in the past five trading days. You know, that one's obviously rolling with the Trump optimism on the reclassification. We'll see if this happens. Um hopefully it does. If it does, it's more of a boom for the planet. You know, that stock will continue to rally. Like, you know, that stock could continue to rally into reclassification. If rec classification comes, it will continue to rally after that. And then it will eventually take a breather, right, and a step back. But for right now, it just has the momentum and, you know, it's a very small company. And so, you know, shareholders want to people wanting to buy that stock, you know, they're just sending it up day after day after day right now, right? And so, I wouldn't be surprised, oh, if it continues to move and next thing you know, it's 75 cents or a dollar or something like that, right? So, but we'll see. The reclassification's got to come though. If if let's say T-Man drops a ball in the reclassification and this doesn't happen in the next few weeks and he doesn't show like yeah I'm serious about this like I this is something I want to get done we're going to get it done you know this year well then then these stocks are going to be in trouble they'll fall precipitously after this rally that they have right and so you can see the planet go to a dollar maybe even $2 but then if the reclassification doesn't come you know you could see that stock fall right back down to 50 cents or 40 cents 30 cents like you know so that's the thing you got to understand like T-Man's got to follow through with this whole reclassification thing right now.

Revolve that stock's rolling huge 7% here's the deal with that one okay listen the small caps rolled heavy today the Russell 2000 was up about 3%. You know typically what I would kind of think in regards to revolve is that stock's going to usually 2x to 3x the Russell on a given day on the upside. So you know to see it over 2x the Russell on the upside I'm not surprised at all. Right. Same exact thing with SoFi. Like SoFi is another one of those stocks that, you know, even though SoFi is not really a small cap anymore because the market cap's grown quite a bit. Listen, if you told me that Russell's up 3%, I'm going to say SoFi's up 6%. It's as simple as that, right? And so being up about 5 and a half% today, doesn't surprise me at all. El's another one that's going to surprise to the upside whenever the Russell has momentum. And and listen, I went over in yesterday's video. I went over in yesterday's video in depth with you guys in regards to fund managers and where they're positioned, right? And a lot of them are very very heavily short the small caps, the Russell 2000. You get inflation data that comes out today, which people look at and they say, "Okay, more likely the Fed's going to be cutting rates here in September." People want to pile into the Russell in a rate cutting environment, right? And so the Russell sees a lot of momentum and if we get into a a rate cut in September and then it looks like we're going to get continued rate cuts say another one in December and then we're going to start you getting more rate cuts in 26. You know the Russell 2000 could easily continue to see momentum cause a short squeezes for a lot of these Wall Streeters that are heavily short these Russell 2000 small cap stocks. And I think that's part of what played out today. I mean the 3% move in the Russell 2000 is substantial. I believe a huge part of that is probably some short covering happened today, right? And for those that don't understand, like whenever you cover your short position, you have to actually buy back shares of the stock, which can cause shares to spike even more because it puts even more buying pressure into the market, right? And then sometimes Wall Streeters realize they got it wrong and they'll keep on, let's say they were short whatever amount of shares, right? 10,000 shares of stock and they go buy 10,000 shares, you know, and cover cover their short position. Sometimes if they feel like, listen, I got it wrong. We're going to keep this long position on in the short term, then they'll go ahead and do that. Um, and so it makes a huge buyer in the market, but takes those shares kind of off the market until the momentum's gone and then those Wall Streeters say, you know what, okay, I'm back out of this. So, you know, fascinating in regards to the whole Russell move there, right?

Wind seeing momentum doesn't come as a surprise if you're talking about interest rates going lower that's going to be very beneficial to these uh resort operators you know if you're wondering what pushes wind back to 200 plus the UAE property opening when that does here in a couple years right and then additionally you get a lower interest rate environment you'll see win back over 200 again.

Meta's on its way to a thousand right I've said this many times it's on its way to a th000 it's just just a grind to get there you know there's there's There's No question to me whether Meta is going to a thousand here in the next 12 to 18 months. It's just a question of when is it exactly? That's the only question in my eyes. Right. So Meta continues to see momentum. You know, Threads, great data came out in regards to how many people are using Threads on a monthly basis. If I recall, it's over 400 million now. So Threads is going to be a huge monetization opportunity for Meta long-term. They're doing a great job now of integrating Threads into Instagram. like I'll go on Instagram and then it'll feed me like relevant posts from threads and next thing you know I'll click on that and it puts me over to the threads app and next thing you know I'm on threads surfing around on threads right so they're doing a really good job I'm sure that you know I don't use Facebook I only use Instagram but I'm sure on Facebook they're finding ways to integrate threads as well so you know just a you know Meta always finds a way like Meta is going to get you to use their products you know what I mean like for me I don't use Facebook but I use Instagram and then I use WhatsApp. Sometimes I don't use it a lot, but every once in a while if I need to communicate with somebody out of the country or something on something, right? It's very popular outside the United States of America to use WhatsApp. So, but they always find a way for you to use one of their products, right? Some some, you know, there's a lot of grandmas out there. They they don't use Instagram, they don't use WhatsApp, but they use Facebook. So, you know, it's just uh that's just the way it is with them, right?

Eel saw some momentum here today. Almost a 3% move for that one. That one's going to be 100 plus shortly. Palanteer continues to see momentum. Like Palanteer is just an animal, man. Like just an animal, you know, and I'm sure there's a lot of people that are wondering when am I gonna, you know, what I think about some a put position on Palunteer eventually. Eventually, but it's still a really tough stock to buy puts against right now. And the reason being the reason Palanteer is really tough to buy puts against is you still don't have anything on a fundamental basis to bet against Palunteer stock. You just need the market to go down to really make any money there. Valuation's been a problem for Palanteer for a year and it doesn't matter. The stock's gone up regardless of valuation, right? The P is at like a trillion billion gadillion, right? Doesn't matter. like the stock goes up and so valuation's a concern, but it's only a concern when you get something fundamental that starts to turn negative, which is what, if you've been watching my channel, I've been explaining this a million times. When Palanteer starts to see revenue growth deceleration, when the revenue growth starts to decelerate, that will be the moment of truth for Palanteer. And that is when when that sniffed out, Palanteer stock will start getting hit hard. But once again, is it next quarter? Is it the quarter after? This is the quarter after. Right? We do know Palanteer is not just going to keep accelerating the growth rates forever. That's impossible, right? It sounds cool. And as a shareholder, I'd be happy if they, you know, oh, 50%. Oh, now we're going to grow 55%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90. It doesn't work like that. Like eventually Palanteer is going to hit a wall here and their growth rates will start to decelerate and that's going to be a day of reckoning and a moment of reckoning for Palanteer stock. But that could be that could still be several quarters from now. Like it's coming, but it's you know to get the exact timing right in that oo it's difficult. Um so you know there's going to be a time and place to make a lot of money on Palunteer put options but I need that one to you might get a glimpse also when the stock just gets very rangebound for a while. Like Palanteer still doesn't seem rangebound yet. when Pounder gets to a rangebound where it seems like two three months go by and it's just kind of stuck in the same range that that will be the moment also that might give you a little hint about hey it's coming so but we'll make well, you know, we made a fortune from the upside of Palanteer, we'll make money from the downside as well, right?

Um AMD so AMD continues to see momentum here like I told you guys you know when they sold that off after earnings I said just wait you know people the same people are selling it for 150 will be buying at 250 plus like you know crazy crazy crazy in regards to that one. Uh Adobe starting to come back a bit. Fubo doing well. Celsius continues to see momentum there. Celsius looking really good. I spoke about that stock in some videos recently.

Let's react to some videos from here. Let's welcome in Warren Pies. He's the co-founder of 314 Research. Good to see you. Good to be here. You downgraded equities in July. That's correct. Oh yeah. I mean to be uh to give us a little bit of slack, we upgraded. We were overweight through it from May. Last time I was here, I was pretty bullish in May and we went down to benchmark weight. And so we just told our clients, look, if you've been following us, then you're ahead on the year. You're beating your benchmark. We downgraded in February, re-upgraded in May. Now we're pulling back. I think tactically it makes sense. Everybody's bullish today. You've had a lot of guests and I don't hear anything but positives. Rick Reer, for example, he he he described what he thinks is an absolutely amazing investing environment. Yeah, I heard that. Yeah. I mean, I think that that gives you pause. Um, well, we measure sentiment objectively, but it does reflect what we're seeing in our objective indicators. So, we see sentiment is really stretched, extreme. You want to fade that. It's a little tricky. Seasonally, we're going into a weak period of the year. And you know, one of the things I Mr. Pie, here's the deal. Okay, listen, Mr. Pie. All due respect, sir. what you just laid out there. Listen to what you just said. It's a little tricky. Seasonally, we're going into a weak period of the year. Seasonally, we're going in a weak period of the year. Listen, I got the reaction channel. How many times have I reacted to videos over the past month? People worrying about we're going into a week seasonal period. Uh I don't know about this market in the short term, August, September. I don't know. It's a week seasonal time. If you, you know, it's not like there's just some overwhelming bullish and everybody that goes on CBC and everybody I react to is just like, "Oh my gosh, yeah, August, September going to be banger months. We're going to be booming." Like maybe Tom Lee says that, but I could tell you like the masses are not the masses keep bringing up the same talking point he just brought up around the market. Uh, weak time period, this is a weak seasonal time period. They keep bringing up again and again, right?

I don't know. And you know, one of the things, and I talked about it last time I was here in May, that really supported the market with these systematic buyers. So, vault targets, CTAs, and corporate buybacks. And we're going into this period right now where there should be a seasonal dry period for corporate buybacks. We've had some a seasonal buying at the beginning of August. And I think people are starting to jump the gun and misinterpret that as this summer meltup that everyone wants to believe in. If people are so bullish and there are so many of the bulls, why is there so much cash on the sidelines? Well, I think the cash on the sidelines honestly reflects the amount of fiscal spending that's gone on in the economy. I mean, everything we look at checkable deposits, you look at the stock market, you look at gold, you look at Bitcoin, every asset has increased 100 trillion of of wealth creation, the main assets that we look at, and it's really coming from the federal government running a 7% deficit every year on procyclical. So, I see that as a huge supporter market. We just see that as a huge Oh, it was almost Oh my gosh, it was almost four, four, four, four four. You guys know I love when it's all bunch of numbers all in a row like that. Oh man, I see that as a huge support to the market. We We still have a $6,800 price target for the S&P at the end of the year. But I think when you're talking tactically, and I think Rick said this, you want to lean more on technicals and systematics in in our work, I think this is an area to watch for a pause. Well, cuz he talked about the technicals being great for the market. I mean, you know, just man has a 6,800 call and but he want, you know, making these tactical calls. Oh, you know, we got to get out. We got to get back in. My gosh, brutal. Like I just going to produce you worse returns, man. It's just a crazy way of trying to do the stock market. It's going to produce you worse returns trying to ah uh seasonal period going to be weak. I got to get out. Uh oh, you know what? Uh fall time's good. Winter time's good. Let me get back in. Like it's just ridiculous, man. And everybody already knows this data. Like no one that's been in the stock market any any amount of time doesn't know all the data around what month's the best for the market, which one's the worst. But the thing is there's a lot of abnominalies in that right and even if let's say 1 month 56% of the time it goes down over 100 years right okay 40 you know it means 44 times it went up like like so come on yeah I mean we had a lot of great momentum signals and we we lit we put those out in May when we upgraded stocks and went overweight and we those are still in place that's like a 12-month signal um but you have to recognize that trees don't go to the go to the sky these things pause and I think like I said, we're going to benchmark weight. If you're a client of ours and you followed our advice, I think you want to just neutralize your overweight and let the market come to you.

No, I hear you. I'm not I'm not I'm not trying to pick on you like at all. And some suggest, look, I I'd love a pullback and and I would buy it. Um I mean, the Fed plays a role in this conversation, too, doesn't it? I mean, don't fight the Fed. They say that for a reason. get more cautious and negative on the market when even you know Robert Kaplan who isn't exactly you know Mr. Dove is leaning towards a cut himself. Yeah. And to be fair we've been on three to four cuts all year. So like this has ebbed and flowed. Everyone's got you know at different points of time they're at no cuts. Bank of America no cuts. You get the big guys now they're all back on cuts. That's now getting priced into the market. So what comes next? That's the big question. What comes next? I think there is some concerns in my mind about the labor market and the growth story. Um, and the market's kind of glossing over that in my view. What about area? Yeah, I mean what you could play out here is you could continue to see a heavy rally into the rate cut and then what could happen after the rate cut and it's just a question of does it start days after or weeks after, right? is you could see the market actually weaken after the first rate cut comes because Wall Street always like if everybody thinks there's a rate cut coming everybody buys into the rate cut right then it actually comes and it becomes a you know sell sell the actual event situation right and so like would I be shocked if we continue to rally all the way into that September cut then they actually cut and then days later weeks later the market starts to lose its footing I would not be surprised at all I'd be like that's the stock market being the stock market and that would lead right into what? That would lead right into a 2018 situation, right? I just don't know if it'll be as steep if we do have a 2018 situation. I don't know if it'll be as steep as 2018. 2018 was very violent. I don't know if it'll be quite like that, but would it be shocked to see 10 to 20% downside for the S&P if we rally heavy heavy heavy into rate cuts? I would not be surprised at all. You either want to be leaning into in the market or maybe taking some profits.

Well, I think what's relevant to today is I'm fading small caps in low. Oh, you're fading this big move. This move today in small caps. I'm not a believer in it. And I I think that hedge funds got over their skis using small caps as a short that they use against these large cap high quality stocks. So, that trade's probably going to have to digest a little bit. That's almost a 3% move today. I know. And I would I would if I'm have small cap exposure, I'd be lessening here. And I if I was looking to put shorts on against my equity longs, I would be shorting the Brussel here. I that's just ridiculous. In all due respect, just ridiculous, Mr. Pie. I mean, come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Come on. Let's view this here. Okay. You know, the the Russell today is the same level basically as it was back in February of 2021. February of 2021, sir. I mean, it's hard to fade small caps when they haven't gone anywhere in years. and years and years and years. That's a tough fade. And when everything has gotten more expensive, all this inflation that we've had over the LA, you know, there are there aren't many things that you can get at the same price you could at the beginning of 2021. And the Russell 2000's one of those. Very few things in this world. And so to say you're going to fade it here, dude. Like who knows? Like what happens if we rally into rate cuts and then you know the rate cuts come and then the market just continues to rally cuz it believes we're in a new cut cycle and we're going to cut all the way down to the twos. Then you could see the Russell roll all the way through the fall all the way into the winter and into the first half of 2026 and you could be looking at a Russell 2000 at 3,000 at that time. Like you got to play these different scenarios out. You can't ever like just say oh it's only this or only that. There's several different scenarios that play out. One is a scenario where in the first half of of 2026, the Russell's at 3,000 and I don't think anybody's even factoring that in right now. And I'm like, I wouldn't bank on it, but I'm like, is it a possibility? Sure. Put the piece of puzzle together and like I could actually see how.

What about the mega caps? Cuz the NASDAQ's having a record high kind of day of its own. Yeah. I mean, I think you you can't fade the move in the mega caps. That's the one thing I I mean that they they're like a perpetual motion machine. And so no, I would want to be long the the large cap high quality stocks and then short or underweight these lowquality stocks. Okay. So you'd still Oh, okay. So that one wrapped up. Rick Reer Black. Thanks for having me. I I tell you, you sent me an email earlier. I had to do a double take. You said this is the best investment environment ever. I think that you mean that. I do cuz and by the way, it doesn't mean necessarily everything's going up, but there's a couple things at play that are pretty extraordinary. First of all, if you take the equity side, first the technicals in equities are crazy. I know we've talked about it before, amount of cash on the sideline, the amount of buybacks relative to the IPO calendar, i.e. the demand versus supply is pretty extraordinary. And these companies, you know, we've talked about on the show, the multiple is not that attractive. These companies are thrown off these earning the earnings growth. I looked at 2024, if you strip out Tesla for obvious reasons, Mag 7 yearon-year growth is like 54%. You get through multiple pretty quickly when you're growing that fast. Then you take the other side of it is you've got in income in fixed income you're getting yield levels I think the Fed can cut rates but for until then you got yield levels you can create portfolio 6 and 1 half 7% yield that's pretty good I would throw one last thing today volatility you don't have to necessarily one of the things I always think about what's your exit strategy what's your escape hatch if you get something surprising the volatility the equity market you know we did a trade today equity va 10 I think it was 10v V 9 and a half 10 V to own like crazy low volatility to own equities. So you don't actually have to take the downside risk. So that's a pretty good pretty good environment and the Fed's going to.

One of the issues you have if you're thinking about could we get a major correction this year, right? And one one thing that makes me think say like maybe it's not going to be a 2018 um and if we do have weakness in the fall time, maybe it'll be very small compared to like something like 2018 is we already had a major severe correction in the market this year, right? If you look at where the the NASDAQ peaked to trough, I mean, you know, we're talking it was I think it was close to a 25% fall or right around 20. That's a severe correction. That's almost getting close to crash levels. So, we can't call what happened this year a crash, but it's actually pretty dang close. It was a what you would call a severe correction we had in the market, right? And we had that in the S&P 500 as well. A severe correction. So, do you ever really get two severe corrections in the market in the same year? Almost never happens. Almost never happens where you get two severe corrections in the same year. Could this year be the year? Maybe. But it's just it's a pretty low probability that you ever get that to happen, right? So, you know, I live in Vegas. We put odds on everything. And so, you know, basically the house would be paying big money uh if you won this bet cuz it almost never plays out that way, right? This is like the 16 parlay. You're like, it's going to pay out big if it happens, but it almost never happens.

Cut in September. Listen, I think they can cut. I you know, I think it's almost a given that they cut. And you know, particularly if you got a payroll report that shows what is here to for happened. You're seeing some soggginess around job hires, around job openings that I think the Fed's got. You've got more slack coming into the labor market. So, I think they can move. Listen, I think I still think the funds rate you can get it down faster and more aggressively than where they are today. You're you're talking about, you know, the inflation report today. You're still talking about there's a little bit of elevation from tariffs which I think you have to be respectful of and I think the Fed's been respectful of that but you're still running under 3% core CPI and things like shelter you're starting to see some improvement and I think they've got room. You talk about 5year inflation break evens at 2 and a half%. I think you got room to get that funds rate down 100 basis points.

Why aren't they all talking as if they have room and not everyone agrees with your assessment? They're worried about sticky inflation. and they look at the CPI and they say, "Well, yeah, it beat expectations, but it still shows that it's still a bit of a problem and it's above our target." So, Scott, I think there's something that's really important. How the the interest rate tool affects inflation. You think about the Fed raised rates 500 basis points. The impact on the economy, inflation, I would argue not terribly significant. The interest rate tool doesn't do a lot today. You think about how companies finance capex big cap, you're not borrowing. You think about asset the banks are asset liab the interest rate tool is not that important except for a couple of big factors what it does to housing and you look at mortgage applications building permits housing starts new home sales frozen stuck the mortgage rate has to come down you drop the funds rate you know there's some yield curve steep that probably happens and then the other side of it is a the lowincome people who are the borrowers you're actually you know they are getting hurt by this way you know high savings older people are benefiting from the high rates and the last thing that I will say I don't think the funds rate has to be at 4 and 3A the cost to the government we have too much debt in this country to charge an extra 100 basis points when I think the transmission of how what it how it impacts inflation that I think is dull to start with is it worth it it's a pretty high price to pay.

If the White House is listening to what you're saying right now, they're all standing up yelling yes yes yes this is the story we've been trying to to to tell. Yeah, I mean, I'll say a couple of things. One, I think you have room and I think you have room to bring that rate down. I also think there's something spectacular happening around productivity. Much of what's happening on the backside of this technology investment, not just the traditional hyperscaler dynamics, but you think about how big companies are using data. You think about space as a new technology. Like all of these are geared towards higher productivity, operating at a lower cost basis. That's where we're going. We, you know, I sent you over this chart. I don't know if you saw that chart that shows other than a pandemic, a once in a 100redyear dynamic. Inflation, volatility of inflation for the last 25 years is incredibly low. We don't run an economy that's manufacturing commodity oriented. That does, it's not cyclical. Volatility of inflation is incredibly low and we're seeing enhanced productivity. But I'm not that worried the Fed drops the rate that all of a sudden we're going to see inflation pick up. I mean, you you've been bullish. You've urged people to continue to look at stocks. You made really good calls on on this show. Nothing scares you. Listen, what I like about No, I mean you defend growth. You're not worried about tariffs. Uh so I would say I'll tell you what I'm most worried about complacency. Like it's I mean so think about the v we're buying today. Like people are selling us insurance and people you know think about the way markets work, the way insurance works. Nobody buys insurance when you're far from the hurricane. They buy right after when the price is too high. Today the price of insurance is incredibly cheap. we can hedge our portfolio. Complacency is high. You see it in some of the credit markets. That being said, you know, I think a I'm I'm sanguin on the economy. You know, I think we're moving generally in the right direction. Listen, one of the reasons why there's a great investment environment, there's a lot of news flow that allows you to take advantage of opportunities. Markets t particularly in August, they tend to overreact to things. So, your ability to actually take advantage of that. But complacency did to me today. I'd love multiple to be a little bit lower to be honest. And I.

Okay, so he's talking about hedging portfolio, right? Um, you know, obviously if if you don't have a multi-million dollar stock portfolio, in my opinion, it just doesn't make sense to hedge. It's like just do what you usually do, buy the dip, you know, make sure you always got your money to go in. If you got a multi-million dollar portfolio, sometimes it can make sense to hedge. I personally hedge. When do I usually hedge? I hedge usually from the end you somewhere between the end of September to like mid December somewhere in there usually and um I'll buy some put options um on several stocks that I think are the best opportunities to kind of buy put options in at a particular time and I'll likely be doing that again this year um you know somewhere between probably late September to mid December you'll see me add probably $50,000 to potenti potentially $100,000 of put options in the public account. Now, that might sound like a huge amount of money. Like, oh my gosh, you're going to buy $50,000 worth of put options that are going to expire in 2026. That's that's a lot. $100,000. That's almost a $4 million portfolio. So, when you factor that in the percentages, it's not like that's some crazy amount. If I hedge $50,000 to $100,000 on a $4 million portfolio, and let's say the market keeps going up between now and then, that portfolio could be 4.2 2 4.5 $4.7 million. It's not like it's a crazy amount um to hedge something like that, right? So, we'll see what happens.

All right, next one up here. Trade track and AMD. I did. Tell me why you did that. Well, I think Broadcom and Nvidia are Coke and Pepsi. Nvidia is is obviously the clear leader. We given the fact that the stock had run a little bit too much. We needed to kind of rightsize our position. We still love love love that company longer term, but we're making a bet on on AMD and Broadcom to be sub A and subB under Nvidia. And those are our three biggest chip company positions. What do you think of the the deal that was struck with Nvidia and AMD to sell their chips into China? China saying, "Well, maybe we don't want your chips, or maybe we don't want our companies to buy your chips, so maybe it's not going to be all that it was cracked up to be on day one." Yeah, I think some of that is is kind of peripheral and marketing and obviously it could be positive if it all works out. I mean, we're still betting on leadership at AMD. Uh we we'd love that the stock the stock was down. Another another point in terms of what Steph was talking about a great leader that was down on earnings but revenue was really good. So I think that's provided an opportunity to add to the stock a little bit more. So in regards to Broadcom Vago like okay. Um I I don't love it though. Ford P55 on that one. I like AMD much better. I think it's a much more direct play on the GPU cycle. I think with MI 355X um I think with MI400 coming next year. I think, you know, AMD's growth rates are just going to shock people. I don't think you're going to get shocking uh growth rates from Broadcom, right? And nor are you going to get shocking growth rates in 26 27 from Nvidia, right? There's they're going to start to really have those uh big numbers start to catch up to them and it's going to be hard to really get those impressive growth percentages. So, I think the only stock you're going to get those crazy growth percentages is AMD in the space.

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