Transcription
Iran can last longer because it is their country. The cost of war is not very high. Those Shahed drones that are famous, attacking them costs only tens of thousands of dollars. Europe itself does not dare to get involved. This means the United States will have to bring everything to fight Iran in their own home. This is different from Ukraine and Russia. Closing [music] means closing, announcing that ships are not allowed to pass within 12 nautical miles of Iran's coast. This means closing. So if a ship passes, Iran will issue a first warning, a second warning, to stop and turn back. If they don't turn back, they will be attacked. If violated, Iran will shoot at the ship's engine. Where is it shot from? This is where the United States has to follow and shoot. Can they shoot?
Yes, Professor. Regarding time and economy, Professor, who do you think is under more pressure right now, the United States or Iran? Time is limited, it cannot be prolonged. Economically, it's like, "Oh my, I can't take it anymore." It destroys the economy, the cost is very high. Professor, who do you think is being pressured right now, between the United States and Iran? Iran, Mr. Navarat. Iran is chill. I'm going to make a definitive statement. Iran is chill. They shoot back and forth. Many of Iran's fans say, "Why don't they shoot 100-200 rounds to destroy US bases in the region?" They say they don't need to. They shoot only a few rounds a day, 10-20 rounds, making the US Patriot missiles come up to intercept. This is more fun, making US bases run out of intercepting missiles. This will force Trump to stop. So, who can last longer? I'm going to make a definitive statement. Iran can last longer because it is their country. The cost of war is not very high. Those Shahed drones that are famous, attacking them costs only tens of thousands of dollars. Their missiles also cost only tens of thousands of dollars, while the US Patriot missiles that intercept them cost $4 million each. Therefore, if we analyze Iran's economy, which has been sanctioned for 47 years, and their domestically produced weapons are not very expensive, then the one who can last longer, I believe, is Iran, because they still have a huge number of missiles. The United States claims to have destroyed all missile launch sites, leaving zero. This war has proven that they can still shoot as before, and accurately too. In Jordan, many people don't know that the US secretly set up a military base in the mountain range. Finally, Iran was able to hit the F-15 hangar and the MQ9 drone. Iran hit them accurately, showing that Iran's intelligence is not inferior to the US. And today, the US has to spend a huge amount of money to maintain its military in the Middle East. Therefore, every time the US goes to war, whether it's the war in Iraq or the war in Afghanistan, which lasted 20 years, they gained nothing but American soldiers dying. American soldiers died in Iraq, 4,600 people. In Afghanistan, over 3,000 people died. Trillions of dollars were spent. The only thing they gained was to go in, overthrow Saddam, and then let the Shiites rule, or let the Sunnis rule. The system of governance changed from Saddam to two new powers: Shiites and Sunnis ruling Iraq. They overthrew the Taliban in Afghanistan. After the US stayed for 20 years, there might have been mechanisms for this person or that person to become president, to control, whether it was Hamid Karzai or someone else. When the US withdrew, the Taliban returned to power. Therefore, what the international community and analysts see is that when intervening in various countries, first, the US has to lose a huge budget. Second, American soldiers will die on the battlefield. Third, the war with Iran is worse than the previous two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran has a strategy to close the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil worldwide. This is a third factor added to the previous two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. We might not see a tangible increase in oil prices like this, but in this war, we can see it because the Strait of Hormuz transports 20% of the oil. So, if Iran closes it, or interferes, or blocks ships from passing normally, it will affect global oil prices. Therefore, the one who can last longer is definitely Iran. Iran can last comfortably, but it is the United States that will not be able to last and will suffer greater losses.
Yes, Professor. Some people have observed that when the conflict first started in February, oil went up to $126, as far as I remember. But after that, it gradually decreased to below $100. This time, they said they would close these two straits, and oil prices rose to $100 and then fell. It seems like the weapons Iran is using now might not be as powerful as before, or they can't push oil prices up that much. How do you assess this, Professor? Or perhaps Iran has other weapons that can put more economic pressure, especially regarding oil?
Regarding oil, the Strait of Hormuz is likely the most dangerous weapon. But the price has not plummeted as it did before. It didn't jump to $100-$126 all at once before. It rose like this before, $2-$2 a day, then it went down, then up, then down, then up. But the previous war was a full-scale war, with quite heavy operations, and Israel was involved. Iran fired many hundreds of missiles. Therefore, it had a greater impact on oil. And the blockade then was a 100% blockade, preventing ships from passing at all. But this time, first, the operations are not as heavy as before. The US has not attacked heavily like before. They have not attacked major cities like the capital or Shiraz, Hamadan, Isfahan, and Tehran. But this time, they have only attacked border cities, near the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the operations are not like before, and Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz like before. Chinese ships can still pass, Mr. Navarat. Chinese cargo ships can still pass.
Chinese ships can still pass, and they announced it. They are Chinese ships, flying the Chinese flag. The cargo is Chinese. The ship owner is Chinese. They are sending it. Iran allowed them to pass normally. When the Chinese ships left, America did not dare to shoot. I heard that one ship was forced to turn back. The Chinese ship that America threatened to shoot at, and the Chinese ship returned. As for Indian ships, one was shot. It was an oil tanker. Iran has not yet admitted it, because normally, when Iran shoots, they admit to shooting a ship. But this Indian ship, neither the US nor Iran has admitted it. This closure is still a closure that allows ships of certain nationalities to pass. So, ships that can still pass are oil tankers. This has not caused oil prices to skyrocket. They are rising step by step. But if the US stops, stops or slows down the attacks, and Iran negotiates with Oman to find a way to open the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will come down again, I think. But if the situation escalates further, then of course, oil prices will definitely rise, and perhaps more than before, because the Red Sea will also be closed, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be closed, making Saudi Arabia unable to send oil.
Yes, Professor. Regarding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, can the Houthi group really close them, or do they just shoot at ships, making people afraid to travel there? Or do they really have the power to close them?
Closing the Strait of Hormuz or closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is similar. The closure they talk about for Hormuz doesn't mean they park all ships to block it. It doesn't mean that. Closing means not allowing ships to pass. If anyone violates it, they will shoot the ship.
This is a closure. It's not like closing the border between Thailand and Cambodia. It's not like that. Closing means announcing that ships are not allowed to pass within 12 nautical miles of Iran's coast. This is what closing means. So, if a ship passes, Iran will issue a first warning, a second warning, to stop and turn back. If they don't turn back, they will be attacked. If violated, Iran will shoot at the ship's engine. Where is it shot from? This is where the United States has to follow and shoot. Can they shoot? Shoot from that angle, shoot from underground, shoot from a drone, shoot from a missile, shoot from anywhere. This is where the United States came this time to destroy all the launch sites in the Strait of Hormuz. But it turns out they couldn't destroy them all. They destroyed some. Iran can still shoot. The Bab el-Mandeb in Yemen is similar. They announced closure. They said no Saudi ships are allowed to pass. Ships of other nationalities can still pass. So, if a Saudi ship comes, the Houthis will do the same, shooting at the cargo ship or oil tanker of Saudi Arabia. They have the capability to shoot as well.
Yes, Professor. What conditions would cause Iran and the Houthi group to completely close it, not allowing anyone to pass? That would definitely affect oil prices, as you mentioned.
If it were a full-scale war, I think they would definitely close it, just like before. If it were a full-scale war, meaning the US attacks Tehran, attacks major Iranian cities, and the Houthis are attacked more heavily by Saudi Arabia, then I think both would be 100% closed. But assessing the stance of the Western world today, they don't want that. Trump himself is starting to back down. So, the chance of a 100% closure, which would cause oil prices to rise to $120, $130, or $150, I think it's still difficult.
Yes, Professor. Can we rule out the possibility of Trump's conditions or operations, or the US being unable to continue, running out of time, and resorting to a ground invasion? Can we rule that out, or is there still a chance?
There is still a chance, Mr. Navarat. Because their latest attacks targeted important strategic points. Analysts agree that they want to pave the way for, first, destroying Iran's missile capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz to attack warships. Second, destroying command centers of Iran's ground forces. Iranian analysts and many experts confirm that there is a high possibility that the recent operations over the past 10 days were intended to pave the way for sending ground troops. Iran also attacked Erbil in Iraq, which is a Kurdish area, and attacked the Iraq-Iran border in Sulaymaniyah, and attacked some bases in Kuwait. These three points are where there was intelligence, but it has not been confirmed. There is information that analysts believe is where the US wants to transport troops and launch a ground invasion from these three points. It turns out that Iran also had intelligence and attacked these three points. So, at this moment, the possibility of a ground invasion cannot be ruled out. There is a possibility. But the Iranian people, the Basij volunteers, the civilian volunteers, and the villagers in the areas where an invasion is rumored, have prepared themselves. The government and the army have distributed weapons. They are all holding guns and waiting to welcome US soldiers. The fight between Iran and Iraq, or rather, with the US, is very different. Their people are ready with weapons, coming out to defend and fight the American soldiers. This is different from American soldiers who are performing their duties as paid officials. The people there are not paid by the government. They consider it their duty to fight to protect their nation and their homeland. Therefore, a fight for spirit is different from a fight for duty and money. I have seen this in Iran during the 8-year war between Iraq and Iran. The people in this situation took up arms and fought the Iraqi soldiers, and finally, the Iraqi soldiers had to retreat. Now, even the media in southern Iran are reporting with sniper rifles and saying that the government and the army have distributed guns to everyone, and the people are lying in wait. If American soldiers come, I think there will be immense losses. There will be a large number of US soldiers killed if they invade by land.
Oh, Professor, you said the war between the US and Iran might be similar to Russia and Ukraine, meaning it could drag on for many years. Is that possible, Professor?
It depends. The US and Iran are different from Ukraine and Russia. Russia has a lot of weapons, and Ukraine receives support from NATO. Iran, looking at the picture, is the underdog. They don't receive weapons from Russia or China. Everything is domestically produced. But the US has to bring weapons. And the attitude of Europe, European countries, still don't dare to get involved with Iran. Even the UK, which allowed the US to use its bases for B1 bombers to attack Iran, Iran quickly retaliated verbally, saying that if their bases are used by the US to attack them, they have legal justification to attack back at Britain. Britain said they are ready, and they are ready to defend. This shows that Europe still doesn't dare to get involved. Therefore, it means the US will have to bring everything to fight Iran in their own home. This is different from Ukraine and Russia, because both are their own countries, right? They fight each other. But the US has to bring everything from America itself or from its bases in the Middle East to fight. Therefore, if the war drags on, I think the US cannot sustain it for as long as Iran. Unless the US has to bomb Iran with nuclear weapons, making it a world war, and Iran is completely destroyed. Which is impossible. In such a scenario, it would end quickly. But in a protracted war, I think Iran will be able to last longer.
Yes, Professor. [Laughter] We might not get as much inside news from Iran as reported by the West. Professor, you have taught there for a long time. I would like to know, Professor, what is the reality of Iran's economy, which people outside are whispering about, saying it's not doing well, the economy is bad, inflation is high, people's incomes are low, and even importing food is problematic? Please tell us the facts.
The reality is that Iran has been sanctioned for 47 years. The war has had some impact on the lives of the people, but the impact is very minimal. Iranians continue to live normally. There is nothing lacking because the main goods are not imported. The main goods are all produced domestically. Iran has all its own products. If you have the opportunity to travel, please go and see. All basic public utilities are subsidized by the government to help the people. But inflation is the main problem that Iran has not been able to solve because Iran's economic system is still pressured by major powers, making Iran unable to conduct financial transactions with many countries around the world, except for allies. And it is still sanctioned by the US regarding export bans, import bans, and many other things. For this reason, inflation in Iran remains a major problem. But to ask how much it affects the lives of the people, before and after the war, I can say it has no effect at all. Before or after the war, people continue to live as usual. This is because the basic necessities in Iran are the cheapest in the world, whether it's natural gas, water, oil, or electricity. Everything that is a basic necessity for a family or a household, the government has been subsidizing for over 40 years. For example, gas bills at my house are collected every two months. Gas bills here mean that Iran is one of the top countries in the world for gas, right? They pipe gas into houses, like water pipes. There are connections in every part of the house. In winter, when it snows and it's cold, you need to turn on the heater. When cooking, you need electricity and gas all the time. Gas is everything. And every house must have a water heater because the water is cold, and you need to shower with warm or hot water. Gas is piped to every house. In Iran, almost 90% of houses have gas, even in rural areas. Gas is collected every two months. My house has many members. For two months, we pay about 40-50 baht. Per month, about 10-20 baht. This is the gas bill. Electricity is also collected every two months. Even though we use 5-6 air conditioners, the electricity bill for two months is about 200-something baht, which is about 100-something baht per month. Water is also collected every two months. As for oil, as I have told you many times, Mr. Navarat, I fill up for 30 satang. Now it's less than that because the currency has risen, so it's about 25 satang. Therefore, basic necessities for a household, the government subsidizes them because it is the policy of the supreme leader. So, if you pay per month, in Thai baht, it's only a few hundred baht. And bread is made from wheat flour. They use wheat flour, right? They make large flatbreads. The government subsidizes the price of wheat flour. For one month, it's only a few baht. A flatbread this big, this big, costs about 1 baht. It's very large and can feed 4-5 people. If a Thai person eats it, it's 1 baht. Therefore, when the government subsidizes these things, people can continue to live normally. They can live, their homes have air conditioning, they have gas, they can drive cars because oil prices are cheap. But what they cannot do is to have high incomes. This is still difficult because they are still sanctioned. But to ask if Iranians live comfortably and normally, I can definitively say yes. I can definitively say they live comfortably. Almost 90% of all houses in Iran have air conditioning, almost 100%. Whether it's air conditioning or water coolers, they have them nationwide because electricity is cheap. Every house in Iran has gas, gas pipes connected to every house. So, almost every house has a car because oil prices are cheap. So, what does comfort mean? If it means basic necessities, then I can say that the Iranian people live comfortably. But if they need to earn $3,000, $4,000, or $5,000 per month, that is not common for Iranians yet, because there are still problems with inflation and other things that are a consequence of the economy, which is sanctioned by the US and many European countries.
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