Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will talk about the rebound we are currently experiencing on BTC. We are not far from reaching $90,000. So, we will look at all of that together.
Next, we will talk about Ethereum, which is also rebounding. Some altcoins continue to stand out, like Kaspa, which we saw yesterday. The SP500 is rebounding. It is mainly thanks to the SP500 that cryptos are currently performing quite well. And we will analyze some altcoins. I have noted Avax, NIR, and Cro.
So, I'm starting here with BTC based on the 4-hour closing price and even the daily closing price, but we could be at a short-term bottom here with, for the first time, an inversion of our short-term momentum. We've seen for a long time that we were doing what? Decreasing lower and lower. And if I initially take the movement from $107,000 and draw a Fibonacci from that peak, when we look, we have retraced very little. We haven't had a real rebound.
So, for those who are saying, "Oh, I missed the train," or in any case, I'm telling you, bottoms take time to form. And if we take the crash, I like to use this example because there was a lot of psychology around this May 2021 crash. You see here, May 2021, in a few days, in 5-6 days, we plummeted by -40% on BTC. And we see that in 2 days, there is much more volatility than now. In 2 days, we made a +40%. You see with this wick and this rather high closing price. And I remember many were thinking, "That's it, it's going to take off again quickly, we'll have a V-shaped bottom, to the moon." I'm not saying it's not going to happen, maybe we will, but it's very unlikely. Just as we had a break in structure here, here we have a sort of accumulation in a Wyckoff pattern with a lot of retests and especially a lot of psychology.
Here, I remember internally, there was this, there was FOMO on the upper extremity. There was FOMO on the lower extremity as well. Here, it was looking for shorts, people were talking about a breakdown. Here, on the contrary, people were talking about a breakdown but upwards. There was a lot of psychology within this sideways phase. And now, perhaps, we are going to start the same thing. I don't know. I'm just saying it's normal.
I know, I know because I've been through it. I also had emotions and I still have emotions. It's just that now, since I have a plan, a strategy, my emotions are put aside. My emotions don't drive my actions. But I know many people might be thinking, "Ah, we went from $80,000 to $89,000, I should have bought, maybe it won't go lower, and now they hesitate to do it." In fact, it's normal to have these emotions. I assure you of that. Okay? You are human until proven otherwise, so it's normal.
Now, what is not normal is not having a plan. And having these emotions, there's no problem. However, if these emotions lead to action, that's where it becomes dangerous. Okay? As I said, being afraid, being euphoric, there's no problem. But if the emotion you have leads to an action that generally won't be good, why? Because when decisions come from a general emotion, the decision, the action is not good. That's where there's a problem. The person who has a plan, a strategy, who knows what they are doing, even if their current strategy might be to buy lower, at least here they are respecting their strategy. That's the most important point. All right?
And as I said, after this big distribution phase, it's very unlikely. Maybe I'll be wrong, and I want to say I hope I'm wrong so that cryptos will go to the moon again, but I find it hard to believe we'll do that. It's very unlikely. We even see that we have sideways phases where we break downwards. We see that here we have a dump. Okay, and even from a psychological point of view, this was a Sunday, if I recall correctly, yes, it was Trump who had spoken. We see that cryptos exploded, and then we came back to retest this low. So, beware of the green candles. Beware of the red candles that can create a lot of emotions for you.
My plan remains the same. On a weekly basis, there are deteriorations, and what we've done is ugly. Now, we have retraced quite a bit. Okay. And as I said, I've placed a first small buy order here. Perhaps my orders placed here and here will never be executed. I will know how to adapt accordingly, enter perhaps a little higher, do more trading than investing, and I will still have my investment bag that can simply benefit from it. For now, I am still in a phase of waiting, and given the drop we've had here, it's normal to have a retracement, to come back, for example, to seek $98,000. It's possible to have a rebound here for a continuation, to retest this low, and to have a sideways phase. That is something that is entirely possible.
So, be careful if, on rebounds like this, you say, "That's it, I want to FOMO" for the long term, etc. No, it's especially that your plan, your strategy is not the right one. And use moving averages. So, I told you that if we passed the 1-hour tunnel and broke $90,000-$89,000, we would have a bullish signal in the sense that we would cross back above the 1-hour tunnel, which we haven't done for a long time, and potentially we would have a short-term rally. Recognize here a small trend similar to, yes, similar to this kind of phase where we go below the 1-hour, below the 15-minute, below the 4-hour, we have a downtrend. Then we have a small bottom forming, to have a rally, but it doesn't necessarily lead to a new ATH. That's what we'll be watching.
And here, we are in a phase where it's a bit more complicated to trade. It's more complicated because we have, let's say, a divergence between the tunnels. We have a bearish 4-hour, a bearish 1-hour that we are breaking upwards, a bullish 15-minute. Here, we are in phases where it's much more complicated. Here, I know that in these kinds of phases, my success rate will be lower than in these kinds of phases. And I've always told you, in phases like this, where we have strong downward or upward momentum, where there's a clear direction, those are always the best times to trade. That's where the best opportunities are, that's where you can simply make profits.
When we have this kind of phase, I'm less comfortable. Now, some people will have strategies that work perfectly in this kind of context and will know what to do. I'm not saying I don't know what to do, I'm just saying I can have trades, but I'm less comfortable trading in these larger phases. And I'm talking mainly to traders. When you trade, your goal is not to trade every movement. Your goal is not to trade every day. Your goal is to have a strategy and apply it. And if this strategy, for example, over 12 months of the year, you can only activate it for 6-7 months, that's fine. Your goal is not to be hired on a permanent contract, working 9-5 with a fixed salary at the end. No, during these 6-7 months, you will perform strongly. This can compensate for 3, 4, 5, 6 months, maybe even 8 if the market is completely stagnant. That has never happened to me, but maybe even much more if the market is stagnant and you don't make a profit. That's something you need to consider. And here, I'm talking mainly about discretionary trading.
After that, I have other setups, a bit more mechanical trading that can be triggered, where regardless of the context, my setup is triggered, I enter a position. Here, in what I said before, I'm talking much more about discretionary trading, but that's it. In any case, here, a potential bottom has been set. I wouldn't be surprised to see a small rally. Okay, to retest $92,000 in the first instance and then revisit the 4-hour tunnel around $96,000.
If I put pivot points here, I remind you, we broke here, we are breaking with the H4 closing price that will arrive at this weekly pivot point here. And then, we will have to watch the next one at $95,000. Now, yes. On BTC, we have an interesting short-term momentum. We really need to settle in and keep this 1-hour tunnel. We really must not settle below this level. If we really lose this imbalance zone, we start, globally, you take an impulsive candle. I like to work with impulsive candles. That is to say, you take a candle that breaks with a good breakout. Okay? Here, the example is this candle. And you say, if we settle back below, globally below $87,700, plus we would go back below the 1-hour, we would go back below the 3-minute, we would almost go back below the 15-minute because by then it will rise. We have the weekly pivot point. Here you have a clear invalidation. Honestly, if we pull back, everything here is interesting for taking longs with an invalidation below this level because if we do that, it's to go lower and hunt for these lows that have not been hunted.
What I'm telling you is crucial. Many of you, I know, are looking first for an entry, saying, "Okay, I'll enter here, I'll enter." Sometimes, if you see an invalidation first, it's more interesting. And see, before telling myself, "Okay, the ideal zone here, if we have a pullback, is around $88,500," but that can change quickly. My invalidation is fixed, and currently, my invalidation is very clear. If I'm looking to trade this upward movement, okay, which is against the medium-term trend, but in the short term, there is an upward trend, so we can certainly look for longs with invalidation if we go below $87,700.
So, on that side, for BTC, we also have this small rally. We are currently retesting $3,000. We are also crossing back above the 1-hour tunnel. Oops, the time is showing. There. So, that's rather good. We see that we had rejected several times and that we were in this sort of compression between the 1-hour tunnel and the 15-minute tunnel. We clearly see here a 15-minute tunnel that is increasingly acting as support, a 1-hour tunnel that is increasingly acting as resistance. So, if Ethereum continues its rally, as we've started in the short term, and it's confirmed well with the breaks, I wouldn't be surprised to see us reach above these highs.
Here, we have quite a few highs to reach. I remind you, above these levels, we have quite a bit of liquidity, okay? Quite a few highs, simply put, we have stop losses. And here, be careful, there are really several schools of thought. I don't like the school that says, "Yes, there's liquidity, it's 100% certain we'll go get it because the market can only go there." No, that doesn't mean anything. For me, it means nothing because if here we have sellers putting strong pressure and there are no buyers on the other side, we will go down, we will be oriented downwards because it's supply and demand, and there's nothing that assures us we'll reach that liquidity.
However, what I like is to determine zones where there are clusters. For example, we have a good cluster around $3,250. Okay. Globally, this zone at $3,220-$3,250. Determine these clusters and simply see how the market reacts when we get there. Why? Because above these levels, as I said, we have short stop losses. Of course, short stop losses. A short seller is someone who bets on the downside, someone who is initially a seller. When you close your position as a short seller, you do the opposite. If you were a seller, you become a buyer. So, a position closure for a short, whether it's a stop loss, a take profit, break-even, partial take profit, a manual closure, it's a buy-back of the position. Okay? And when you have stop losses and liquidations being triggered here, we simply have buy-backs of positions being executed, and that creates strong buying pressure. And that's why sometimes we can have what's called a short squeeze. Just as when we go down, we can have a long squeeze. A lot of stop losses are triggered. For example, you see here, there are a lot of stop losses. Oops, we have a long squeeze here, a sharp drop. Why? Because long positions are being closed, selling pressure. Okay, and supply and demand. If there's no counterparty, it goes down.
What I'm watching for is that counterparty. If we go there and make a wick, okay? That is to say, we trigger these stops that we can then see on the order flow with the open interest, with liquidations, and so on and so forth. If we do this kind of thing and we don't have a big pump, meaning there's a counterparty on the other side. That is to say, the orders have been triggered, and when you have buy orders being executed, automatically, when there's a buyer, there's a seller. If the market doesn't push upwards, it's because there's simply selling pressure here. And then I can, for example, have a setup.
But yes, a little lesson here on how liquidity works. I'm not a fan of this theory that says, "Here, there's, for example, a high to reach, it's 100% certain we'll reach it." No, I don't know if we'll reach them. I don't anticipate it. You see, that's the difference between anticipating and reacting. However, if we go there, I will simply observe what the market shows me. And then, similarly, we can look for confluences. You see, there's a weekly pivot point. Here, we have a good zone, really. If we are to take shorts on Ether, if we go there with a loss of momentum, with selling pressure here, with something forming globally around $3,250, it could be a very good zone.
Now, Ether can of course continue to rally. And also, pay attention to something important: it's not because I draw a zone that we will necessarily go there. If we push here, and tomorrow Elon Musk decides, "Hey, I want to short Ether and prevent everyone..." because I have the liquidity, I have the capital to prevent it, of course, what moves the market is supply and demand. A person with much more money, much more capital, will be able to impact the market much more. Okay? And of course, depending on the amounts, we'll talk about a slight impact. Then, we can talk about manipulation, of course, but a person, I took Elon Musk, I could take someone else, if they decide to short here, the market won't go up, it won't go up if they prevent the market from going higher, of course, the market will stop here. And it's not because we have stop losses here, whether yours or others, or I don't know what, that the market absolutely must go there. That's why it makes me laugh sometimes when I hear, "Oh, the market is hunting my stop losses, the market makers are hunting my stop losses." Guys, the exchange doesn't care about your stop losses, really, they don't care. Okay? It's not because you're going to get liquidated for $1,000, $500, $10, I don't know your capital, that it will have an impact. No, the market doesn't care at all. Especially since the market, what it wants. Yes.
So, triggering stop losses closes positions, but when you lose, meaning when you take a loss, you don't give your money to an exchange. It's not the exchange that says, "Ah, well, this person lost 100 bucks, I'll take the 100 bucks." No, when you lose 100 bucks, it's because on the other side there's a trader who gained 100 bucks. It's a zero-sum game. Uh, that's it. In any case, in the long term, higher high, lower low, lower low, lower low. So, I remain in an outlook where we are in a downtrend, and I will change my mind if we start structuring this type of reversal pattern with higher lows and higher highs.
Regarding the US market, it's doing quite well, which is surprising. I'm surprised, yes and no. I think the market is pricing in the fact that we will potentially have a rate cut after all, with the various announcements that have been made, the various data, and the market had priced that in quite quickly. In fact, initially, we had high probabilities, I don't remember how much, but even 80-90% of a rate cut for the next meeting in 13 days, and the market quickly priced it at 50-50 for ultimately returning to 85-15. Well, it's quite surprising that we have such a rapid variation. Okay. Yet, we haven't had super important announcements either, even though there have been, yes, the NFP, the unemployment rate, there have been speeches, etc., etc. But I think the fact that the US market is currently pumping is due to this variation and especially this rather significant probability of a rate cut for the next meeting. So, we've kind of gone back to a V-shaped bottom.
Well, we saw that there was this sideways phase and that we broke this M. This M was confirmed and broken downwards with these lower lows and lower highs. Now, it's true that now, crossing back above this high, you see, this is a bearish impulsive candle. It's clearly an invalidation. The fact of crossing back above, we saw it, $6,008 was globally our zone. I told myself, if we cross back above $6,008, it's bullish, and yes, there's a high probability of reaching the ATH. And that's where we see that the market is, we are still in uncertainty, and that's where knowing how to adapt comes in. Okay? We can be right, we can be wrong, but it's about having a plan and knowing how to change your bias. And the person who says, "Ah, well, it went down, okay, it's going up. No, I'm not invalidating, I'm moving my stop loss, no, it's going to be fine, the market is wrong, it's impossible, I can't be wrong." In the end, they pay much more and don't accept their loss. Okay? There's nothing wrong with being wrong, there's nothing wrong with the market being much more complicated, with aggressive rebounds like this. The most important thing is to change your bias.
And anyway, on the SP500, there's a big level in my opinion, it's $6,008. Very good. As long as we trade above it, it's bullish. We trade below it, it's rather bearish. It's a polarity zone that allows us to have a guideline simply based on whether we trade above or below it. Nasdaq is the same. Okay. So, we haven't crossed back above the big level. Nasdaq is roughly around here. But okay, depending on the closing price, we'll see how it goes. Now, I always give more importance, in my opinion, to the SP500.
Regarding altcoins, well, yesterday we saw Kaspa. Why Kaspa? Because yesterday it was an altcoin that decoupled. Okay? It's an altcoin that outperformed. We see it clearly on November 25th, it's an altcoin that pumped well. And you know my theory, this isn't a theory, it's something I use daily. It's something that allows me to trade certain altcoins based on their momentum. It's something I've been sharing for a while. It's simply that when an altcoin stands out in a day, a week, depending on your timeframe. If you do short, medium, or long-term trading, it has a higher chance of continuing to stand out. And an altcoin that pumps, a strong altcoin, has a higher chance of being strong the next day and the day after. Okay? It's a very simple setup that we triggered with ICP. See here where I had a +17% pump in a day while other altcoins were doing nothing at all. We can check, when was that? It was November 1st. I'm looking for BTC. November 1st, where were we? See, November 1st, 0.45%. I'll take a random altcoin. November 1st, where were you? See, Solana -0.46%, and ICP stood out. Something like that, I tell myself something is happening. Okay.
Is it a short squeeze? Did we liquidate people? Yes, maybe a little, but not specifically. It's a bit driven by spot. So, okay, I tell myself, very good, it's a strong altcoin, I'm entering. We see that it remained strong for a long time. I didn't sell at the highest point, but that's it. And then, it became weak. That's how it is. There are altcoins that are strong and become weak, altcoins that are weak and become strong, and so on. The goal is to capture these kinds of movements. Either position yourself quickly for a swing trade, as I did here with ICP, or then for shorter-term trading, use moving averages and drive the trend.
So, that's perfect. You see, 15-minute pullback support, 15-minute pullback support, and so on, until we go back below. And here, you see, 15-minute resistance, resistance, resistance. We see it quite clearly on Kaspa. We're doing roughly the same thing. The difference is that I didn't enter for a swing trade because I was a bit less confident than when I entered with ICP. BTC didn't have the same chart. But we see here a first pump. Okay, +13%. A second one, +11%. A third one, +12%. And here, in the short term, when I use moving averages, it's the same, you see, oops, the 3-minute is driving the trend. We haven't even pulled back on the 15-minute. If you're looking for an altcoin to perform intraday, Kaspa is a good example, and Kaspa is quite good for continuing the trend. It's pretty much the only altcoin that stands out, at least among the big ones.
Regarding the altcoins that were requested, I have an analysis of Avax. Oops. So, where are we with Avax? Well, it's not very pretty. Not very pretty. Why? Because we broke a major structure. Unless there's a re-entry into this level, the $15 level, unless we have this type of re-entry, otherwise it's difficult to enter here because we have broken, we have even settled daily below the structure. All the moving averages are surely oriented downwards, yes, the 1-hour, the 4-hour, the daily, the 3-day in the long term. Yes, it's complicated.
Personally, on this kind of chart, there are two ways for me to reason. Either I tell myself, "Okay, fundamentally, AVAX is amazing." Here I'm talking about AVAX, it could be for any altcoin. Fundamentally, it's amazing, it's the best project. For example, this opinion, I could have it for BTC, for Hyperliquid, for Ether, but a bit less with time. But okay, let's say I have it, I tell myself AVAX is amazing. In that case, I'll set my stop loss on the weekly and wait for big retracement phases. It could be Fibonacci 0.886. See? Oops! Perfectly. Here, we've wicked several times. It could be from a price action perspective, major levels, and boom, and I'll place orders in my buy zones in these bad ranges like this, and I'll tell myself I can't position myself at the bottom, I don't want a reversal pattern, I don't want it, I just tell myself, "Okay, I know it's fundamentally amazing, so I'll just look to position myself when the price is extremely low." That's the first line of reasoning.
Now, the second line of reasoning, for example, is the case for me with AVAX. Fundamentally, I don't think it's amazing. I'm not saying it's a terrible project either, but I don't think it's amazing. In that case, I'll wait for confirmation, a reversal pattern, a re-entry, a more bullish signal. See, like this type of reversal pattern we have here with a low, a high, a higher low than the previous one, a break, and then a rally, a bullish rally. So, globally, that's simply what I'd like to see here on AVAX to position myself, and then we could revisit, for example, this high first. I like to look at the 0.18 Fibonacci level because if we remain under bearish pressure with lower lows and lower highs, it's in this zone that sellers will mark a top. See how we did here. Oops, we retraced exactly 0.18, 0.7186. We perfectly marked a market top. Avax is done.
Next, NIR was requested, and then we'll see Cro. So, NIR, we are in a good zone, honestly. We are clearly in the best zone to take a... We see it's range trading, so it's up to you to see what type of trading you prefer, but it's a range that was broken downwards, and we are forming a range again. Technically, a range broken downwards, we have a higher chance of a continuation and another break downwards. That's a reality. Why? Because in a downtrend, impulses extend several times in the direction of the initial trend. Here, our long-term trend is bearish. No need for a diagram. We see it with price action and moving averages, a higher chance of continuing in this bearish pressure.
However, we are on a major support level, and if I had to take a position right now, I wouldn't take a short because we are at a support level. And I would rather look to take a long around $1.8, approximately this zone. Here, yes, we are in a good zone. If I want to refine, I can always use a volume profile. Let's take our range start, roughly. Okay. Generally, below the value low, this is a good zone to take longs, and above the value high, it's a good zone to take shorts or to take take profits, depending, of course, on where you are positioned. So, on NIR, as I said, it's a good zone to look for longs if I get a bullish reaction, a small pattern here, or if I want to enter aggressively now, we'll see. We are still a bit weak because we are not above the 1-hour tunnel, unlike altcoins or BTC which have broken their 1-hour tunnel. But here, if I get a signal, a break, and we settle above $2, there might be a small pattern that validates, and in this situation, I have globally an invalidation around $1, approximately, where I tell myself, "Very good, long position here, $1.7." That's the invalidation level, and globally, I'll look to take profit in the first instance around the middle of the range. That could be a good zone. The 4-hour tunnel, there's a good confluence zone, and I can look for a total take profit at the opposite extremity.
However, I have risk management for this. I control my risk. I know what I'm doing. I can put 0.5% of my capital, 1%. Now, I advise against going beyond 1% or 2%. 2% is the absolute maximum. When I see some people having capital management with 5% risk per trade, that's crazy. 5%, you take five losses in a row, which is possible and which you will experience in your trading career. I'm telling you, it's mandatory, you'll go through it. Okay? You'll lose 25% of your capital, a quarter of your capital, by taking 5 losing trades. That's not possible. No professional trader can lose 25% of their capital on 5 consecutive losing trades. It's not possible. It's simply bad risk management. So, 0.5%, 1%. I sometimes even go for 0.25% on certain trades. So, that's for you to decide, and of course, always good risk management with a clear invalidation.
So, that's it from my side. Feel free to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening. I'll see you tomorrow for another video.