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It turns out there is news. The person who ordered the attack on the ship, it was the IRGC army, not the government. They are trying to come out as if Iran right now is breaking into factions. The civilian faction is the one running the country and negotiating the MOU. After the MOU was negotiated, the IRGC faction, the military faction, didn't like it. They created this situation. The Trump team then gave hope. If they keep provoking, it might cause Iran to break apart and lead to regime change. When it was investigated, there were millions. Trump was shocked. These people surrounding Trump did not give Trump the real information. >> A wide variety of products from Suphaphosoth for over 70 years, and we will take care of you forever. Suphaphosoth Bithos. Hello, Professor Teerachai. >> Hello, Khun Thani. >> Professor Teerachai Phunadanan, former Minister of Finance. Uh, excuse me, Professor. Regarding the situation in Iran right now, I have been following it closely. I just returned from Iran yesterday, so I'm a bit emotional. So I want to ask the professor, right now, the situation in Iran, I understand that in Tehran, it's still peaceful and orderly. But in the southern part, the Strait of Hormuz, there's constant shooting. Is this related to the strategy that America wants to use the Strait of Oman to exit the Sea of Oman, passing through the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think they will use this strategy successfully, or will Iran yield and not allow them to pass through the Strait of Hormuz? What will happen, Professor? Please. >> The issue of the Strait of Hormuz is the main problem where the US and Iran are clashing, and they are still clashing during the time we are recording this program. It has reached the point where Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again. It's like this: if we look at the MOU, Article 5 clearly states that Iran will be responsible for managing the Strait of Hormuz so that ships can travel in and out. Only one country is named in this, which is Iran. And I think Iran intentionally wrote this statement clearly to show that they are the only ones responsible for managing this. Oman is not mentioned. Oman is mentioned at the end, saying that after that, they will consult with Oman on long-term management methods. But at the beginning, Article 5 clearly states that Iran is the one responsible for management. So Iran has made its plans. There are a total of three channels. The northern channel belongs to Iran. The middle channel is the one used in the past, which we don't need to talk about now because Iran has laid mines there. And the southern channel, which belongs to Oman, is in the south. Previously, during negotiations and discussions, they only talked about the channels in general. But after reaching an agreement and making some progress, it turned out that the International Maritime Organization (IMO), which is a UN agency, spoke with the Omani government and asked if there was a way to open the southern channel of Oman to allow the many ships stuck there to leave, as a humanitarian measure. Oman agreed. After that, problems arose. After the MOU was signed, the MOU was criticized by people in political circles, media circles in the US, and also in Western countries. They said that this time Trump has been taken advantage of. Everyone sees it as an agreement and an excessive concession to Iran. For this reason, Trump took two actions. First, originally, it seemed like some of the frozen funds would be returned. There was talk that the first installment might be around 6 billion dollars. But Trump didn't return it easily. He announced that if he were to return it, he wouldn't return it as cash because he feared criticism that the money would end up in Iran's hands, and Iran would be able to use this money to build weapons and increase its power to attack others. The second issue is the Strait of Hormuz itself. Trump must have thought later that he had been outmaneuvered and wondered how to fix it. So Trump tried to use the southern channel, the southern channel of Oman, and used American air power to fly and escort ships, trying to push ships through. These were not the ships that were originally stuck and needed to leave. But Trump used ships to push normal merchant ships through. Iran, of course, saw Trump's actions as, simply put, twisting their arm, preventing them from squeezing the Strait of Hormuz as originally planned. So Iran did not agree. The first ship that was attacked this time was a Singaporean ship, not an oil tanker, but a normal cargo ship. After it passed, Iran attacked it. After that, when Iran attacked the ship, America retaliated, but not deep into Iran. They attacked various points along the coast of the Persian Gulf. This happened once, then again, and most recently, over the weekend, it happened again. Over the weekend, Trump even announced that he gave Iran 24 hours to declare that Iran would allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of what kind of ship, without Iran obstructing or charging any fees. This contradicts Iran's policy. Therefore, last night, when ships passed through the Strait of Oman again, Iran attacked again. Today, there was a major confrontation. The Americans bombed several points in Iran's Persian Gulf region. This time, Iran retaliated by attacking American military bases in various Arab countries. The problem is that most recently, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz, which was previously open, is now closed by Iran. Therefore, following this trend, it will cause problems for global oil prices because the world was expecting that eventually there would be negotiations, agreements, and all problems would be resolved. This trend suggests that resolving the problem will be slow and difficult. It might not even happen at this time. >> Listening to Professor Teerachai, it feels like everything is going back to where it was last month. The ceasefire negotiations will likely fail. But I still don't think Donald Trump would risk destroying the ceasefire agreement, because if he did, oil prices would keep rising, interest rates would rise, and the cost of living would rise. Professor, looking at it this way, is it impossible for Donald Trump to choose this path? >> Donald Trump has a dilemma. If he chooses this path, it means he accepts high oil prices. This would hurt his chances in the midterm elections. And if he loses the lower house, at least the impeachment process, the process of removing him from office, can proceed within the current lower house because the majority in the lower house is still Republican. If it swings to the Democratic party, the risk of him facing the impeachment process will arise. But what's more serious is that it will cause divisions within the party. Because right now, if he cannot control oil prices, people in his party, who previously followed him, who lined up and listened to Trump's orders on every matter, will start to break away. Trump will no longer be able to point in one direction or another, especially for the candidates who will run in each district, who are supposed to be the ones Trump wants to place. It won't be as smooth as before. Therefore, the approach of allowing problems to arise and oil prices to increase, he must try to avoid. But the problem is, if he avoids it, and at the same time, the Strait of Hormuz clearly falls into Iran's hands, he cannot accept that either, because the image will be that he has lost. In reality, if he had remained still and let the situation pass until after the midterm elections, and then dealt with the Strait of Hormuz again, it might not have been too late. But now, he feels that if Iran seizes the Strait, he cannot accept it. But if he cannot accept it and does something, it will have an impact on oil prices, which will affect the elections. He is caught on both sides. Whichever way he goes, he will be poked by this dilemma. >> I don't think I understand what's going on in his head. I'm confused and chaotic. It's like he has no awareness that what he's doing is useless. Or his subordinates cannot provide him with complete information that the Iranians will never yield. They would rather die than surrender. If Donald Trump knew the Iranians, he would know that they would rather die than surrender. So, if he chooses this path, he is committing suicide. Iran will never let go of the Strait of Hormuz, a million percent. Even if you send an army of a hundred thousand, they won't let go. They will fight to the death. Here's the thing: news has emerged and spread, causing quite a stir, that the person who ordered the attack on the ship last night, the ship that used the Strait of Oman, was the Iranian army, the IRGC, not the government. They are trying to present it as if Iran is currently breaking into factions. The civilian faction is running the country and negotiating the MOU. After the MOU was negotiated, the IRGC faction, the military faction, didn't like it. The military faction has been comfortable so far, right? They have money and everything. So they will bang the table, do this and that. The military power is in the hands of the IRGC. But the civilian faction, the one running the country, is worried that the economy is not doing well. That's why they had to negotiate the MOU. This situation was created. This is why the Trump team has hope that if they keep provoking, it might cause Iran to break apart and lead to regime change, meaning a change in government. I think it must be along these lines, otherwise, they wouldn't go all out without hope. But this news has come out, and many people assess that it is absolutely impossible. >> I think they know less than we do. Professor, we know more than they do about the situation. I spoke with Iranians, met with many people who are running the country. And the tone of each person is that they are so angry at Donald Trump, even more than angry. As I said, assassination attempts are normal. Everyone in Iran talks about killing, killing, killing. If they can kill, they will kill. If they can't kill, they won't. >> Wait, wait, Khun Thani, did you just return from Iran? >> Yes, I just got back yesterday. >> Oh, really? Well, if that's the case, it means Khun Thani has more information than Trump, definitely more than Trump. Because I went to rallies, met Iranians, paid respects to the deceased, attended demonstrations, marched for many days. I saw the environment. I don't know what they are thinking. They said, "Hey, if you kill us all, we still won't yield." So what are you thinking? >> This is the problem. Because one day, if we follow the news, we will find that when millions of people came out and expressed their sorrow, Trump was shocked. I think Trump saw that no Western leader has ever been criticized so vehemently. It's incomparable. Therefore, Trump was shocked, and he himself said that he didn't expect so many people to come out and cry. This means he received wrong information. When he collaborated with Israel, Netanyahu probably told him, "If you can decapitate them, the people below will lean towards us." All of this, I read it myself, I think he probably thought to himself, if he deals with Iran and the people below turn towards the US and embrace them, he will control the Strait of Hormuz and squeeze China, trading oil for rare earth elements. I guess he thought this way, so he decided to go for it. But when he went for it, it turned out to be more difficult than he anticipated. If Iran were weak, if they were incompetent, he would have misjudged. But Iran is not like that. Iran is very strong. He doesn't know Iran and just assumes Iran is weak. Oh my, inside, I think everyone has been brainwashed for 40-50 years to hate Americans. They don't just hate them; they hate them deeply. >> They hate them to the bone, to the marrow. Therefore, >> There is a group of people, called doves and hawks. It's like this everywhere in the world. But what they aim for is the group that favors the West. It truly exists, there is such a group, but it's a small group, not that large. And the power is not with that group because that group has been taken advantage of and is outdated. But the group that has current knowledge is very firm about religion. If you look at Islam in Iran, I think it is very strong, so much so that if people like this have immense power to do anything, just imagine. How could so many people come out? And the people have the same feeling: they love their leader. Also, it's not just young people who come out; they bring their whole families, including small children. They come as families, not as individuals. Therefore, if they come as a family system, it means it has reached the roots of the country. Even children are involved. And another point is that the people who come out in each group, each faction, are united because they have been bullied. This makes them more united. Therefore, there is no way they will be divided, saying, "Oh, hawks and doves." >> I think it's difficult, difficult. >> This is it. The people surrounding Trump did not give Trump the real information. They saw the images of protests in Iran before he decided to go to war. You probably remember there were protests, and the Iranian government suppressed them severely. He even spoke out, saying that the Iranian government killed many protesters. And he felt that if he took action, soon the protesters would rise up themselves. It's like he would be the one giving hope to the protesters. I think the real turning point was when the incident happened, the attack. I guess Qassem Soleimani, who was killed, could have gone underground. But he decided to live normally. This means that when the time came, perhaps he was old, and when he was finally killed, it became a trigger. It ignited a sense of patriotism, a group, a collective, more than expected. Therefore, all of this might be a sacrifice by Qassem Soleimani, which is deeper and more profound than we expected. >> That's true. Iranians told me that he said he would not go into a bunker because he said he could still sacrifice his life to show everyone that he was still brave. If he went into a bunker, he would look like he was afraid. Also, he said he was old, and dying in bed would be meaningless. Being a Shahid, a martyr for the nation, would be more beneficial for uniting the people. This is what Iranians said. I listened and thought, >> He seems like a thoughtful person. How many more years could he live? But if there is such a war, and the country is ruined, and he can unite the country, gather strength. The Iranian people are indeed divided, I don't deny it, because there is real division. Because there are many rich people in Tehran who live very lavishly, extravagantly, with amazing mansions. They have a lot of money. And there are also many poor people begging. There is very high inequality in this country. We admit that the country has problems. >> But they still don't love America more than their country. So when something comes up, the poor and the rich unite. They don't argue anymore. There is indeed arguing, but they say about 70,000 people protested. I went to the market where they were arguing at the rally. That market was already crowded. You can quickly gather a lot of people because there are hundreds of thousands of people in that market, around there. So you can say they protested, and they could protest, coming out in the hundreds of thousands. But were there real deaths? Yes, there were, about 10 people. But they were CIA. In reality, there are many CIA agents in Iran, many double agents. And they clearly said that the number of double agents in Iran is not small. They are called double agents, meaning spies or those who oppose the government. >> There is a lot of suppression, that's true, it's not ordinary. How can 92 million people think the same way? Many people want to be in America. But what happened, I think if the people giving information to Trump were a little smarter, gave complete information, or maybe he wouldn't listen. He is currently on the wrong path and continues to go down the wrong path, getting lost. I think he will die first. >> I agree with that. I agree completely. But I think today, the people watching this program and listening to Khun Thani, I think this is first-hand information. You get information from someone who has truly experienced it. >> Oh, today I also learned something. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the Dee Bua Thao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.