Transcription
Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we will be going game by game through every NFL game for the week 10 slate and ranking the running backs for fantasy football. Whether they are starts, whether they are flexes, whether they are sits. I don't know why that was so hard coming out of my mouth. Pause. But that is what we do every single Wednesday. All right.
And if you are new here, make sure you subscribe to the channel because we will be doing this every Wednesday going forward through the remainder of the season. Tomorrow will be the wide receiver version of this video. All right. So, let's jump in.
Thursday Night Football tomorrow night, Las Vegas at Denver. All right, we've got the Raiders heading to Denver. Very tough matchup. Of course, 42 and a half point total. The Broncos are 9 and a half point favorites. Should see a healthy dose of JK Dobbins, though it has not led to a ton of production for him, though I do think we're going to see some touchdown progression swing his way in a good way, otherwise known as progression. Um, he's not catching passes, which I think is still weird given Shawn Peyton's offense just throws to the running back on all downs. Typically, it just hasn't gone his way. But I think you just keep firing Dobbins up. This is a good matchup. Should see some touchdown looks. He's obviously getting a lot of work, getting the majority of snaps. His backfield mate RJ Harvey, he's still only seeing about 30% of the snaps on the year. And even in games where he's scoring touchdowns, he's still splitting the backfield with Tyler Bedet and JK Dobbins still running less than 50% fewer than 40% of the snaps here. So, yes, he's had some really good touchdown luck, but he's still very much in that shaky flex category where it's hard to have confidence in him because his touch count continues to be low.
Ashen Genty, really tough defense, obviously against Denver, as you could see, they are bottom five in pretty much every statistical category against running backs. EPA per rush, fantasy points allowed to the running backs, just overall points per game. If we check the practice report real quick, the obvious big DNP here for the Broncos, who will be out for this week is Patrick Certan, but we'll get into that tomorrow when we cover the wide receivers. But yeah, Genti is going to be in the feels good category as well, just cuz the matchup is so difficult on the ground.
Moving into the Sunday slate, we've got Atlanta versus Indie. Again, just a quick reminder, this game is in Berlin. This is at 9:30 a.m. So, make sure you set your your lineups, your matchups, all that kind of good stuff beforehand. I will be at this game. Yes, your mans will be sporting the sticks jersey. Julio Jones, bright red. Look for me in the stands. If you are in Germany, if you are in Berlin, if you're going to be there for that weekend, DM me on Instagram or Twitter or something. We will be doing a fan meetup that Saturday around happy hourish. I'll give you the location. Jonathan Taylor must start. Bjan Robinstain must start. And there's no one else we really want. I guess you could throw Tyler Algier into the rather not. He will be in the rankings of course, but we don't want him in our lineups.
Moving to Baltimore at Minnesota. This is a three and a half point favorite game for Baltimore. 48 and a half point total. We saw Baltimore clicking on all cylinders with Lamar Jackson back on the field. Obviously Derrick Henry is going to live and die by touchdowns for the most part, but he's Derrick Henry, so he's going into the mustart category. The flip side of things a little bit trickier because we did see Aaron Jones leave the game last week in Minnesota's first game back with JJ McCarthy. They got the win over the Lions. Aaron Jones was looking phenomenal. He was taking the majority of snaps. He was outproducing Jordan Mason by a long shot. Seemed to have suffered an AC sprain, which is not overly significant for a running back. You could usually shoot up and play through it. And I expect him to be playing in this game. So, we're going to move forward as if he is playing in this game. And I'm going to throw him into the dub flex category. The Ravens defense will get better as the year progresses, as they get guys healthier, but their interior, their defensive line is for sure a problem for the time being, and I think you can run on them. And I think we can see clearly that Jones is a little bit more explosive than Jordan Mason. They're using him in passing situations. I do think when they get down to the goal line, it will likely be Jordan Mason who gets those carries. So, you could throw him into the shaky flex category. And yes, I [ __ ] know that that is Jordan Addison in the profile picture. No matter what I do, I can't change it. Like the software, for whatever reason, the way I built this is it pulls in profile pictures, head shot from the ESPN API. So when I put in a new player, I just click like a download headshot button and no matter what I do, no matter what instructions I feed it, it just gives me Jordan Addison's head shot. So live with it. All right, [ __ ] it. Jordan Mason shaky flex.
Buffalo at Miami. Of course, Devon Hans going straight into the mustart category. Buffalo 9 and a half point favorites on the road here in Miami. 49 12 point total. James Cook, of course, phenomenal matchup for him getting against uh Miami. He's a mustard as well. No one else in this game we want in our lineups. That's easy. That's that's that's nice. One and done there.
So, we've got Cleveland. We've got the New York Jets. The Jets went wholesale fire sale. If you want my thoughts on more of the fantasy impacts of the moves from the trade deadline yesterday, you can go check out the waiver wire video. We talked about Jacobe Myers. We talked about Rashi. Talk about a little bit more of that obviously in the wide receiver version of the video tomorrow, especially when we get some more reports about which guys are likely to play this week and suit up for the new teams, etc., etc. In this game, we've got Bree Hall, who stayed put with the Jets. They have a very tough match up against Cleveland. Dead last in EPA per rush allowed. Bottom two in fantasy points per game allowed. And I think it's really easy to get super hyped about Bruce Hall given the last game they just played, but it was a really easy matchup. It was his first touchdowns of the season. You know, don't want to write off the fact that he had three touchdowns in that game, and that can kind of happen any given game, but we expect a gross game in this one. This is a 37 12 point total here with the movement of Quinnon Williams and Sauce Gardner. They went from favorites to underdogs in this one. Ultimately, I think Bree Hall like obviously he's going to be in your lineup. You're not sitting him. He's going into the feels good, not the mustar category.
On the flip side of things, we love Quinc Judkins. He is also dealing with an AC sprain, but he had the by-week to help get healthy from it. And again, he's not expected to actually miss time with that. They get the Jets defense, who will not have Quinnon Williams in the middle there. So, an even easier matchup for what was already a really easy defense to run against. So, Quincan Judkins is a must start for me.
Jacksonville at Houston. Jacksonville one and a half point underdogs right now. We don't have a status on CJ Strad. He has a concussion and again 50/50 to get through the concussion protocol to play on the following Sunday. So, there is a world where Houston is playing with Davis Mills and that is a world that I don't want to live in. However, this Jacksonville defense one is, you know, at this point, I don't know that it's underrated cuz I think most people just know that they're a relatively good defense and they're not easy to have success against and the fact that Woody Marks and Nick Chub are just fully splitting carries at this point. It is a 38 and a half point total in this game. So, I think with all the injuries, you got BTJ possibly injured, you got Davis Mills possibly playing, you've got just a bunch of injuries on both offensive sides of the ball, Vegas just does not project this to be a game where we're going to see a lot of fantasy points. And again, you cannot predict what's happening between Nick Chub and Woody Marks on a given week. So, they're both going to go into the Shaky Flex category. You can't start them with any sort of confidence here. On the flip side, Travis Ten did have a very strong game last week, but I still don't really trust him against the Houston Texans defense that's obviously very good, allowing the single fewest points per game to opponents on the year. You know, you can definitely get him into your lineup, but he's going to be more of a dub flex than someone I feel really good about getting in there.
Moving on to New England at Tampa Bay. Another really tricky game to decipher right now because we don't have injury reports. I'm filming this around 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday. Practice reports usually don't come out for like another four or five hours. Got me thinking maybe next season I might push these a day back. I might go Thursday running back video, Friday wide receiver video. Like I like to have these open to you guys so that like I can talk through Thursday night football with the sits and starts, but it's also feels a little bit detrimental not having that first practice report and being able to get a glimpse of like who's likely going to play, who's likely not going to play. So there's like there's pros and cons. I don't know. It feels like you guys have like the rotation of videos that I've had so far this year. So if it ain't broke, don't fix it. But I don't know. Just think it through. I I don't like having zero status of injuries on Wednesday and like talking through these situations. But we're here anyway. Bucky Irving. uh have no [ __ ] idea if he's going to play. He doesn't seem like he's been close to returning, but they did just come off the by-week. His projected return date by most Twitter doctors has been somewhere between week 10 and week 12 or 13. So, he could play this game. He could miss another couple weeks. Obviously, if he's playing, he's in your lineup. It's a really tough match up against New England's elite run defense. Like, they have shut down every good running back that has come their way. Buckeyy's going to be in your lineup, obviously. So, let's proceed as if he's not playing. It gives us Rashad White and Shawn Tucker. We did see more of a split backfield the last time the Bucks played between Rashad White and Shawn Tucker. And you combine that with the fact that the Patriots run defense is really, really good. I don't know that I feel confident about Rashad White going into this game. So, he's going to be in the shaky flex here. I don't think he starts. I think there's the obvious possibility that he gets 15 to 20 touches as a lead horse, but Rashad White's going to go in the shaky flex here. He's going to be at the top of it. Sean Tucker is not a guy that I want to play.
On the flip side, Raandre Stevenson is dealing with turftoe. Don't know if he's going to be back this week. If I had to project, turf toe usually seems like a multi-week injury. So, we'll progress as if he's not. Last week, we saw Trevon Henderson. Terrell Jennings split the back field. Terrell Jennings got the goal line carry or did get the goal line carry that got in for the touchdown. So, I actually think he is flexible. If you are really desperate here, I think he's probably a good bet to to get 10 plus touches and possibly a goal line touch or two. Trayvon Henderson. So, a lot more work. 18 touches, four catches. is I think he'll be extremely involved in this one. So honestly, if Raandre is out again, I do feel like he is the best bet to lead the backfield. But as I talked about, I think it was yesterday and in the stream, anytime it's a backup running back, the coach is viable to go with the hot hand. So wouldn't be overly surprised if one of these weeks RA Stevenson missed and Terrell Jennings and Trayvon Henderson split the back field dead even down the middle. But for now, I like the split that we saw with Henderson. Um I I just like how this offense is moving. I like the floor of the ASM and PPR given his pass catching ability. So, he's somewhere between like the feels good and the dub flex category for me for the time being.
New Orleans at Carolina. I mean, what a world we're living in where Rico Dattle just moves right into the mustart category. The Panthers are 5 1/2 point favorites. This is a 39 12 point total here. So, the Panthers went really runheavy last game. Bryce Young, I think, dropped back like 24 times. That's clearly going to be their mo going forward. You have a Saints run defense that can absolutely be had here. Rico Dow coming off of a 27 touch game. Tuba Hubard only had five touches. So, the clear flipping happened last week and it's great to see Rico's been a [ __ ] beast all year and he deserves to have that line. I will say I think it's important to keep an eye on practice reports. Like he did get a little bit banged up in that game and uh he was able to return and finish the game really strong, but maybe it's something that swells up or happens afterwards. So, keep an eye on practice reports. Of course, Chuba's going to be a rather not. Yeah, I just I don't know how you can play him at this point. I mean, maybe it's like against the Saints and Dave Canales is a coward and he's like, I don't want to hurt Chuba's feelings, so we'll get him 10 touches if we're up big or whatever. Whatever.
Flip side, Alvin Kamara has been dreadful. Awful. On paper, not even that good of a matchup versus the Panthers with Derek Brown there in the middle. They are five and a half point underdogs. Their offensive line is in shambles right now. Caesar Ruiz is out like they are down three or four of their starting offensive linemen. Not that Trevor Penny was any good, but he also just got traded to the Chargers. They were already not a great offensive line. And now they're likely going to be without a lot of their players. So, at best shake uh shaky flex for Alvin Kamar, probably towards the top cuz he will get the majority of touches. And I will say, I heard an insane stat this morning that the Saints last week against the Rams, they had, I believe, the time of possession for their offense was somewhere between 15 and 16 minutes. and it was the 13th lowest time of possession, just total time in NFL history in a game. So, obviously that's not going to be the case all the time, but like that's the Saints offense. Like that's going to happen sometimes.
Moving to the Giants at the Chicago Bears. The Giants are three and a half point underdogs, 47 1/2 point total with no Cam Scatterbo. We thought it was going to be Tracy as the lead guy going into this game. him and Devin Singleary just split snaps pretty much 50/50 and now it leaves us in like a weird spot. I will say I again I think sometimes like the hot hand just happens. I don't think they went into the game plan thinking like oh Singleary is going to get as many if not more touches than Tyrone Tracy. So I think based on that it's a good matchup versus the Chicago Bears. 10th most fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Obviously Chase Brown had a big day. They saw that they could, you know, utilize that dump off type of offense and uh we could see the Giants do something similar, but based on the split, I do think you have to have a little bit of caution. I'm going to throw Tracy into the shaky flex here, but it would not surprise me if he like took over the backfield again. Singleary is going to be in the rather not tier.
The other backfield is very, very tricky right now. We had Swift, who didn't practice at all last week, missed the game obviously with a groin injury that he's been dealing with for the last like month or so. We don't have practice reports yet, so I don't know if we should be expecting DeAndre Swift to return to the lineup this week. The Giants matchup is phenomenal. Kungai is coming off of a damn near 200 yard game. So, I mean, if Swift misses again, obviously Kungai goes right into the must start category. He looked awesome. The Chicago offensive line from a run blocking standpoint is elite right now. Like, nobody is playing as well as them. Maybe the maybe the Panthers actually, which is crazy given how many injuries they have on that offensive line. I don't know what they're doing out there, what kind of scheme or offensive line coach they got there, but it is elite in every aspect. So, Manungai, auto mustart. If Swift plays, this is a tough one cuz I I don't think Kyle Nungai is going to be the lead back. It is likely going to be some sort of 50/50 splits, but I'm hesitant to say that Manungai gets any of the valuable touches here. Like, Swift is more of a pass catcher. And I even think that like despite Manungai's bruising style, they really like using Swift on the goal line. And honestly, he's played really well on the goal line. So, that's kind of like a split backfield as well. I I think if Swift plays, and listen, this is subject to change, subject to reports and stuff that happens throughout the rest of the week. The way I'll likely be ranking them, I think Swift right now, I'm I'm finishing up my rankings right after I film this video. So, the my rankings will be live by the time you guys watch this, can always get a membership, bdge.co. It's the only place to get my weekly rankings. You could do it for very cheap. $10 will get you three months of the membership if you go to our partner website or app MGM first-time depositors. $10, that's it. Use code BDGE, place any slip on there, any bet on there, and uh they'll give you a promo code to use on our site for 3 months free. Otherwise, you can just go sign up to be a big dog member on bdge.co. Swift is likely just based on the the the injury scare a little bit. The matchup is phenomenal. He's going to be a dub flex for me and I'm I'm a little bit hesitant to put Kyle Manungi in the dub flex, but it'll be like Swift RB probably 18ish and then Manungai at RB like 22 23. But again, I think Manungai will get work. I'm just I'm just hesitant on if he'll get any like actual valuable touches despite how good he looked. Again, it was against the Bengals who have just the absolute [ __ ] worst defense I've ever seen with my two eyes. So, I just think that also counts for something.
Moving to Arizona at Seattle. Seattle's 6 and a half point favorites at home. 45 1/2 point total here. From the Seattle side of things, I mean, it's more of the same. Kenneth Walker and Zack Charbanet are both shaky flexes. Neither of them really get it done unless they get into the end zone, and you cannot depend on that right now. Arizona's defense is honestly getting Walter Nolan back, getting some of their guys back. They're a very good underrated defense right now.
On the flip side, it does not look like Trey Benson will be returning this week, I don't think. So, we have a weird split where Amari Marcato got more of the work last week against Dallas. However, Zonovan Knight did play more snaps than Amomar Di Marcato. So, I do expect that to be a split going forward. Unfortunately, can't trust either of them. And this is a really tough match up against a Seattle run defense that is elite right now. Bottom two in EPA per rush allowed to opponents.
Detroit at Washington. Next game, Detroit 9 12 point favorites, 49 12 point total. I kind of think this was an easy one. Yeah, despite the weird split for Gibbs and Deont. Gibbs is going to be a must start. Of course, Deont I think is a dub flex. he'll get enough work against the team that they should thrash. And in those types of game scripts, we usually know what happens with Deont. He's almost a lock for a touchdown.
On the flip side, JCM continues to get a decent amount of work, but this is a really tough match up against the Detroit Lions. Run defense, it's very, very good. Bottom three in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. He's not scoring touchdowns. He's not really catching passes. They're going to be playing with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. So, I'm going to put JCM at the bottom of the shaky flex here. And even that, I don't feel good about. Rodriguez and McNichols are both going to go into the rather knots here, but probably don't want to play any Washington running back this week.
The Los Angeles Rams at the San Francisco 49ers. Three and a half point favorites for the Los Angeles Rams. Playing like a real Super Bowl contender right now. 49 12 point total. We do not know the quarterback situation for the Niners. If it's Pertie, if it is M. Jones, doesn't matter on that side of the ball. That's going to be CMAC in the mustart tier. Kairen Williams, honestly, I think he goes in the must start tier as well. guy had 25 carries last week. Still the workhorse there. Blake Cororm, you know, he gets enough work that I think you can throw him into the shaky flex tier, but you're pretty desperate if he needs to be in your lineup at this point.
Pittsburgh at the Los Angeles Chargers. Sunday Night Football. The Chargers are three-point favorites here. 45 12 point total. Jaylen Warren's going to go right into the feels good category. Two touchdowns last week. Didn't have a lot of efficiency, but I'm not overly concerned about that. He is the workhorse in that back field.
Kenneth Gainwell, I think you can probably make a case that he should be in the shaky flex here because he catches a decent amount of dump offs from Aaron Rogers. On the flip side, last week we saw Jared Patterson get a decent amount of work and I think the split is going to be a little bit overblown just given the fact that Jared Patterson's like yards per carry were a little bit better. I still think they would much rather run the backfield through Kamani Vidal. And it's just one of those situations. Again, he's a backup running back. The hot hand is always on the table, but I'm not overly concerned about it. I actually think I'm going to put Kamani Vidal right back into the dub flex tier. Not a mustard and I think if you have some of these names I would, you know, obviously start over him and and he doesn't need to be in your lineup, but I feel relatively good about him and I'm not starting Jared Patterson. No [ __ ] chance.
Last game of the week, we got Philly at Green Bay Monday Night Football. The Packers 2 and a half point favorites at home, 45 1/2 point total. Philly coming off of their buy. Playing the Packers who are obviously a very tough run defense, have been for the most part this year. Rico Dattle just torched him. We also should have a fully healthy Philadelphia Eagles offensive line. I like them coming off of a buy. All that to say, obviously Saquon's going to be in the must start tier. I think he'll have a pretty good game this week. Jacobs is, you know, he's not a tough one. He's obviously going to be in your lineup. Philly's defense has been a lot more friendly to fantasy running backs this year than they were last year. Jacobs is obviously still nursing that calf injury, unfortunately. We're seeing his snap counts, you know, hover underneath 60% which is almost never the case for him. It doesn't even matter what the game script is. He should be on the field for 75%. But he's clearly a little bit hampered by the calf, but another week maybe a little bit healthier here. Uh he's going to go into the mustard tier. You're obviously never sitting Josh Jacobs. And then Emanuel Wilson's getting some run. We even saw Christopher Brooks get a little bit of run, but at the end of the day, yeah, I mean it's it's Josh Jacobs and you're not starting any of the Packers running backs besides him.
All right, cool. Well, that was quick and easy. We got week 10 running backs. We'll throw it into poster mode for y'all so you could see it at scale here. Here you go. And again, as always, my actual rankings in order, flex, PPR, half PPR, that kind of sheish will be live by the time you guys watch this on BDGE.co. So, become a big dog member on the website directly or you can get three months of it for just $10 by depositing that and playing any slip on MGM when you do it with code BDGE if you're a firsttime depositor.
All right. So, I will be back tomorrow for the wide receiver version of this here video. I'm going to need those practice reports. I'm I'm starting to get addicted to Wednesday practice reports. Don't ask me why. I got problems. I got to go to the therapist. Got to go. If anyone got a good practice report, therapist, drop the referral in the in the uh comments below. All right, I'm out of here. I love y'all. Smoochies. [Music]