Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, we will start with the summary of the FOMC that we had yesterday. Po spoke. So, we will do a small summary of the economic situation, let's say. Then, we will talk about BTC, ETER, the altcoins that were requested for analysis, and we will finish with the US market. Before I begin, for those who don't know, once a week, I host what we call the trader letter. I simply send a unique email every Sunday packed with value. We talk about trading, investment, mindset, psychology, crypto. A lot of topics are covered with a single goal, to bring you maximum value so that you simply become better. So there you go, I can share trading ideas with you, lessons from my trading journey that I've learned, psychological advice, in short, whatever, it's completely free. You just have to click on the first link in the description to subscribe, and if it doesn't interest you, you can of course unsubscribe.
So, yesterday we had a rate cut. So there you go, the Fed cuts 25 basis points. So we are at 3.50-3.75. Uh, Po spoke. Well, in short, in terms of points here, he confirms that the rates are in the neutral zone, and on the projection we have, we haven't planned to lower rates for around 2026, as we can see. So, we might have a rate cut if we anticipate. We are expecting a rate cut for 2026, but for now, that's all that is potentially planned if we have rather positive announcements. But we can see that for the next meeting on January 28th, there is a 75% probability of a single rate cut. So there you go, he made us understand that it's done, we've cut rates. Now, we're going to stay on this base for the moment. He told us that inflation is less worrying outside of customs tariffs. Recent inflation and employment data are very uncertain. The labor market is slowing down significantly with overestimated data. No rate hike scenario is considered. Well, thankfully. Future decisions will depend on the data. Well, that's classic Poel. That's what I told you in yesterday's video. Launching the purchase of T-bills to stabilize liquidity, but he made us understand that it was not QE at all. Real estate is in great structural difficulty. Well, that's for your personal information, and political influence on the Fed is increasing as 2026 approaches. Risk of a stronger pivot next year. We have Trump putting a lot of pressure on Po. Trump is making it understood that rates are falling slowly, and it's true that when we look at this and project to 2027-2028, it's true that currently, we saw it, we are at 3.350-3.75 at this level here. And we see that if we project to 2026, 2027, 2028, depending on the participants, we have an average that won't move much. For 2026, we are at approximately, let's say, 3.325-3.50, for 2027 at 3, for 2028 at 3 as well. If we project like this, rates are falling very slowly, and that's why Trump is putting pressure. He even said yesterday, he spoke during a speech, he pressed, saying that rates should have been 50 basis points lower rather than 25. So it's true that rates are falling slowly, and the economy is taking time to recover. This is not ideal for the markets. That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P 500, or the US market, enter a major phase of sideways movement. In any case, for the moment, from what Poel has made us understand, and whether he will remain in power at the Fed, we don't know yet because Trump wants to get rid of him. Even the last time he was president, 10 years ago, about 10 years ago, 7 years ago, he already wanted to get rid of him. Well, we'll see if that happens, but we see that it's slow. We see that if we project to 2027, well, don't expect a huge drop in rates. It's important to know that it's primarily US monetary policy that drives the market, whether it's the crypto market or even the global market. The United States has a big impact on this. So, it's certain that rate cuts that take time to happen can impact the market. Well, we'll see all that. And we see that the market reacted rather poorly. So, at the time the rates came out at 8 PM, at this level, it's 5 minutes, we'll see better. We had, oops, a small push, right? That's what I told you. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pump. And there you go, the classic trap where we push, we push, and we re-enter quite quickly. I can understand that the discourse isn't the most reassuring. However, we still have a market that has pumped a bit more than crypto, and otherwise, we see that crypto is generally weak. The S&P 500 is rather neutral today, as we can see, while crypto is not doing well. It's really not doing well, and that's where we see that there's no buying pressure for now. And no bottom drawn yet on BTC. This is where it's important to work with levels of support and resistance, to know where we enter, a high extremity and a low extremity. And we can see that in this zone, we keep getting rejected. We reject once, twice, three times. I'm putting pivot points here. We can perfectly see that we are rejecting at this pivot point. This zone is $94,000. A psychological figure, a resistance zone, a pivot point. So, it's a key level. We fell with this M-top structure and we find ourselves at an area of interest. Already, we have a pivot point at this level, and we are in this accumulation zone. We've put in a bottom. So we are simply in the middle of the range, at a level that must hold. If we start to settle below this level, for me, it means revisiting the lower extremity. Now, from a probability standpoint, I think we have a better chance of revisiting this lower extremity. We are in a medium to long-term bearish trend. Here, we can see it clearly with a downward-oriented daily tunnel, a downward-oriented 4-hour tunnel, and in the short term, we are generally neutral. We are flat, we are in a range. We can see it with the 1-hour chart being flat and the 15-minute chart being flat. And we have crossed all the moving averages. So, if we start to apply a bit more bearish pressure, we will find a very interesting momentum to trade. Already, we can see it here in the short term, we are holding the 3-minute. It would be good here to break this, to have a small acceleration to find a bearish flow, a bearish momentum, and then I will surely have trades that can be triggered tomorrow. I have good confidence, we haven't gone there, it's a level I've been watching today. The zone of $90,870. Good confluence between the daily pivot point, the 1-hour tunnel, the 15-minute tunnel, but I didn't have a pullback, otherwise I could have had a setup that executed at this level. So there you go, on this side for BTC, well, it's not great, even if we look at the order flow, we still have a CVD that is clearly bearish, well oriented downwards on the spot. So we have strong selling pressure on the spot. I'm on 15 minutes, even if I switch to 4 hours, it's not great. On futures, it's already a bit better, but for me, it's the spot market that must drive the market, not the futures. We had a spot that was recovering with an upward trend on the CVD, we had a good upward trend on the price. Whereas here, at that time, we had a futures CVD that was oriented downwards. We see that despite that, the price has really increased. For me, it's really the futures CVD that must be watched to build real movements and in our medium to long-term trend. After, in the short term, watching the futures CVD is very interesting to see if we have buying pressure, selling pressure, absorptions, divergences. Yes, but in the medium to long term, I attach more importance to the spot because it's the spot that really builds the big movements in the market. So there you go, in any case, no incredible signs on BTC, and I still have the same plan, the same opinion. This is where, you see, we can talk about short-term trading, but it's good, it's that in my videos, I cover a bit of several topics, investment, trading, psychology, I try to give you maximum advice, but if I were an investment channel, I could make a video once every two or three weeks at the moment because my plan that I mentioned, it was when? It was about a month ago, and it's still the same, which is simply that I slightly repositioned myself at $86,000 on BTC, but my biggest buy orders are lower, and I still have this plan that the market can go and get them. Will it go and get them? That's another matter. If it doesn't, then I'll adapt. Okay? Always have plans based on all possibilities, all scenarios that the market might present. But for me, the plan is still current. We could very well have a small phase of sideways movement before a resumption of our bearish trend. We could be in this kind of period, you see, it reminds me, I told you last time, it reminds me of this phase. Now, are we here or rather here? It's complicated, but we could be in this phase where we had the big dump, the small consolidation phase near a support level as we were here, near a significant low. You see, we have a significant low, a significant low like here, a significant low, a significant low, and we have a small consolidation for a continuation of our bearish trend. It's possible. It's possible. After all, each moment is unique in the market, you shouldn't start saying "Ah, this happened." So, exactly the same thing will happen. The most important thing is to adapt based on what we see, and what I see for now is a chart that remains bearish.
So, on this side for Bitcoin, we have Ether which is correcting a bit more, which has come back to its precise level that we had drawn together, that we had seen together, $3400. That was the plan for Ether, it was simple. We go above this level. The objective, to reach $3400. We did it in several steps. We came back to pull back on this level to reach this zone. Now, we are rejecting. And so, if we reject, does that mean that it's done, we've put in a top, it's going down? Not necessarily. What's good about Ether is that Ether is much more powerful than BTC. We've gone back above the 4-hour, we've gone back above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour, we are pulling back on the 1-hour. Now, we've been rejected in the daily. But there you go, ETER has a much more interesting chart here, and currently Ether is in a good location zone. Why? Because we are at the level of the pivot point, which is a big level that has acted as resistance once again, acted as resistance, and now acts as support, and we are also in the daily tunnel. So this zone is very interesting on Ether to take longs. However, be careful with BTC, the chart is less interesting, and it's always much more complicated to trade like this when you say Ether, there's potential to take a long, but for BTC, I'm not a fan of the chart. When it's like this, the most interesting thing is to reduce your risk by half because BTC, don't forget, it's the leader. So yes, it's on support, but the chart is still less interesting. Now, we have a better chance of reacting at a support level. But if BTC sends you contrary signals and Ether sends you positive signals, the most important thing is still to reduce your risk because you don't have good correlation. Generally, when you trade a crypto, when you invest in a crypto, it's better if BTC is also going in the right direction. Otherwise, it's much more delicate, knowing that the majority of cryptos follow BTC. Now, yes, Ether's chart is much more interesting. We must hold this level because here, we have a trend that is still bullish. Low, high, low, high, low, high, low. Okay? If we start to lose this level, a pivot point, daily tunnel, 1-hour tunnel, 4-hour tunnel, well, I won't repeat everything, we will have a high chance of breaking this low and coming back to our lower extremity. Here, a small trend has been initiated, we can see it clearly with a movement here, a second movement. I don't trade Elliott waves, but for your information, from three bullish impulses, we can assume that our trend is starting to mature. That doesn't mean it will reverse, but it indicates that we are potentially weakening. We can see this in different ways. I don't think I see it on the daily, no. Yes, I think we'll see it especially on 6-12 hours. There, we see it clearly on 6-12 hours. We are diverging. We have higher highs in terms of price action, but on the MACD, which is a momentum indicator, we are simply making lower highs. So we are in a phase where, be careful, buyers are getting weaker. That doesn't mean we can't go higher. We have a concrete example at this level. Oops, we see that here we have a bullish divergence, so a weakening of sellers. Do we make a lower low? Yes. And we push for a larger bullish divergence. And then, we put in a bottom. So be careful to all those who will tell you "Yes, as soon as we have a divergence, the market will reverse." No, momentum indicates buying and selling strength. It doesn't indicate that the market is reversing. What shows us that the market is reversing? A dynamic inversion. Lower and lower lows. Okay. It's that we can very well pull back, fill this gap, make a high lower than the previous one, and structure an M-top. Then, we will have a high chance of entering a short to medium-term bearish trend to revisit this lower extremity. This is entirely possible. Or we break down now and break this low. That is also a possibility. Well, in any case, it's not at $3400 that you should look for longs on Ether. It's either we have pullbacks on a lower extremity for those who do swing trading, for those who do intraday trading, well, we can be in a good zone but with an invalidation below if we start to lose this level.
So, on this side for Ether, regarding the US market, well, the US market remains more bullish than cryptocurrencies. We see, we had a good drop here. We went to test the lows. I like these kinds of candles. Why? What does it tell us? It tells us that there was strong selling pressure that was simply absorbed by buyers. There you go, we see it clearly, a dump at this level, and directly a buying reaction. We went to take the lows here with this wick, and we see that buyers are still present. I'm putting moving averages. We still have upward-oriented moving averages above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour. So on the S&P 500, the plan is what? As long as we are above 6008, for me, it's heading for the moon. However, we must hold, and we must really hold this level because if we consolidate further, it must break. Because if we break downwards, the more time we spend, the bigger the top structure is if we break downwards, and the longer it will take to put in a bottom, and the bottom will also be longer because there is a difference between making a top in the very short term, generally, you see, a short-term top like this is a bearish trend. There you go, it's minus 20%, but we can recover quite quickly. You see the W structure here, if I look, oops, I have this sideways phase, we break downwards. This sideways phase is even faster, it lasts much fewer days. However, when we have bigger structures and even long-term structures like this, well, on the other side, it takes time to recover. There you go, generally a structure that will be similar. And this is not good for the crypto markets because I remind you, if I compare the S&P 500 to the BTC chart, oops. Let's put it like this. Well, we see that there is a correlation. When we put in a market top on crypto, here the S&P 500 also puts in a market top. We see a bearish trend. When we put in a bottom on BTC in November-December 2022, here is the lowest point on the S&P 500 as well. And the entire bullish rally happens at the same time as the S&P 500. Of course, there are differences, thankfully, but there you go, the big dump here, we also have a big dump on the S&P 500. We still have a good correlation. There, we see it clearly, yes, there is a good correlation. Correlation that has been different. Or rather, negative correlations with the S&P 500 rising and crypto falling. But the more time passes, the stronger the correlation becomes with the arrival of ETFs, with Trump in power, and so on and so forth. This is an asset class that is starting to be much more appropriately traded by large institutions, and automatically, it's a risk-on asset, as we call it, just like stocks. So they are somewhat in the same asset category, if not riskier.
Now, regarding the altcoins requested for analysis, I'm getting the list. Let's go, I have HB. Where are we with HB? It had pumped well. It hasn't done much since. You see, someone who didn't take their profits has already corrected significantly. And for the year 2025, we've done nothing at all. Oops, if I switch to 12 months. Ah, by the way, it's the end of the year, it's coming, those who do a yearly analysis on cryptos. Be careful, be careful. Knowing that here, I'm just looking out of curiosity, the year 2025, there you go, we have a good drop. But be careful with those who will do a yearly analysis on cryptos with cryptos that have 4-5 years of experience, or rather, history. It always makes me laugh. Okay. BTC, even BTC, let's say we can start with BTC, why not, but you can't make decisions based on yearly closes, it's impossible. Monthly on BTC, quarterly is already a bit too much. Monthly on Ether, that's not bad. We have enough history to start doing monthly analyses on BTC. So, where are we with H bar? Well, we are coming back to a support level. We are generally at a low extremity. So, it's always more interesting to position yourself when you retrace like this than when you are at such high levels. It's quite simple. It's quite logical. So, -70% is becoming interesting again. Especially since we are at a support level like this. Each time, we have reacted well. W structure at this level. W structure also at this level. Now, for the moment, there is no W structure. It could happen if we break this level here. Okay, so then we would have confirmation of this structure, but for me, that's not the case. I'm putting moving averages. What do we see? We are still on the 4-hour. Whereas generally, we break the 4-hour. You see here, 4-hour oriented downwards, we break it, it's the bottom. Okay? 4-hour oriented downwards, we break it, it's the bottom. Well, here it's the same. 4-hour oriented downwards, if we start to manage to stay above it, to break it, well, here too, it could be the bottom. So, to be followed on Edera, but for the moment, I see no sign of a bottom. Yes, we are at a very, very big support level, that's a fact, but it's not because we are at a support level that you absolutely must position yourself, and it's not because we've also taken a -60% that we can't take another -40% -50%. No, it's entirely possible to come back to much lower levels. We see it clearly at this level, oops, we took a -93%. So we have proof that we can come back to lower levels. And if you don't have an invalidation, if you enter here and we break this level, well, we can come back to the lower extremity, and that's another -60% drop. That's why the most important thing is your entry timing. Okay? At what point do you enter a position, and where do you put your invalidation, and of course, your risk management. Now, if we start to structure a W pattern here, we can experience a retracement. Already, I'm taking this last movement. We see that here, oops, Fibonacci, we were rejected at the 0.118 level. If we have sellers who want to establish lower and lower highs here, there's a high chance that it will happen here too at the 0.18 Fibonacci level.
Next, Virtual. I've often mentioned this crypto. I think some people are stuck, who bought at the very top. I feel it because I was asked for a lot of analyses here, and then I was asked for them again at the bottom, and it's quite surprising. Human psychology doesn't change at all, but yes, Virtual, I think many people are stuck because there was a hype at one point, when, well, after all, all cryptos that have such big performance are always hyped. Except that most of the time, people position themselves much, much too late. Where are we now? We are in a range. There you go, we are in a range after a pump and dump, we are consolidating, and well, this is traded like a range. That is to say, the lower extremity is a good zone to look for longs. Why? Because here, we see it clearly, oops, W structure, it pumps very well. At the bottom, W structure, very well, it pumps because at the bottom of a range, demand is greater than supply. And at the top of a range, it's the opposite. Oops, inversion of our dynamic. Here too, M-top, it's rather in the middle of this M-top, it's rather in the middle of the range, which shows us that sellers are well present, and here, no signs. For the moment, we are coming back to an intervention zone, it's true, we will rather look for longs now, we need a bottom. And here, for the moment, we are breaking. So, either we structure a W here, or we do it lower. And this is where it's important to square your chart, to do this work, to locate, to determine interesting zones, but then you have to wait for the signal. And the pattern is the icing on the cake. Everything must be done beforehand. That is to say, where you enter, the risk you are going to take, what are all your conditions to enter a position as soon as you have the buying signal. Here, yes, it can be interesting to enter a position, but for the moment, it's exactly the same as what we saw with Cash bar just before. Moving averages oriented downwards, there's nothing to do about it. We are still in a bearish dynamic.
And uh, last crypto, NKR. So, where are we with this? Maker, what does it show? We bounced perfectly on this level that we had drawn together, $1000. It's not surprising. First, it's a psychological figure. And then, it's the neckline of this magnificent W structure that occurred here with a nice break, pullback. There you go, this is a textbook case. We had come back to this big accumulation zone. We have pumped quite a bit. Maker has also had its little cycle. What did we do? Well, about the same performance as BTC. And you see the levels, they are simple. There aren't 40,000 levels to draw. We have this resistance zone of $2200. This zone also $4000, and $2000. Here we are reacting at the lower extremity. Well, we have chances to come back to the upper extremity. Here we would be at about 80%. Yes, 65%. Let's take the lowest point here, 80%. We are at a x2, and yes, good buying reaction. We seem to be going back above the moving averages. There you go, perfectly. Yes, this is also a textbook case. There isn't too much liquidity for this. I'll go to Binance, I think. MKR on Binance. No, MKR USDT is only listed there. So either there have been delistings, or it has been delisted, but that surprises me because at the time, I think it was listed on Binance. I might be wrong, but I think it was listed on Binance. However, it's quite surprising that I'm wrong because a chart looks like this when it has been delisted from Binance. It's quite rare when you have delistings from Binance. It's really ugly. Uh, I have an example. Can't I have a better example than this of TP? Yes, I think I will. Uh, no, it's not that one that was delisted, I don't remember. Ah yes, the one that was delisted, but we no longer have the history. I don't know if you've ever seen delistings, how they work, but there you go, it's this kind of chart. In short, in any case, from a black perspective, there's more listing than that. That's why there's very little liquidity. So be careful with this. You can't position yourself on just any exchange. It's listed on Coinbase, though, but it's not listed on Binance. Yes, it's quite surprising. Uh, well, in any case, here, we have our textbook case that I wanted to show you where we have a 4-hour tunnel oriented downwards, a 1-hour tunnel oriented downwards. You see, as soon as we break the 4-hour, we hold the moving averages, well, we are in an inversion of our dynamic, and here it's rather good. It must hold, we must make a new high. There's a high chance of a continuation, coming back to the daily tunnel, resistance zones. So the chart is rather good. However, it must be maintained. Here, it's really important. You see, we have our W structure. We must not go back below this level. Otherwise, we would be talking about a big level. There would be a high chance of then attacking these lows.
There you go, I'm finished on my end. Don't hesitate to join the Trader Lor by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening. I'll see you tomorrow for another video.