Transcription
And hello to everyone and welcome to Vision Crypton this Friday, October 17, 2025, with a very red map, but you will see nonetheless. I already said it yesterday, but I find it very positive, and moreover, we have reached the targets I wanted, and we will go see that right away on the charts. So, of course, the map is relatively red. You knew I wanted us to go a little lower, so we were bound to take a hit on Alts, on BTC, and on Ethereum. But the essential thing is that we have reached the targets, as I told you, that I wanted, and that now I think we can potentially start going up again. Of course, we will still be conditioned by geopolitical data, but for now, it is rather good, and we will go see that later. In terms of volumes, we can see that we have a lot of volumes, 83 billion on BTC and 44 billion on Ethereum. So there is interest in the market. We will also see that we have liquidated a lot again, and unfortunately, it is the longs, but it was predictable if we were to have a drop. And now we are on the charts. Come on team, here we are on our friend BTC, and so, we have had this famous drop. You see where I wanted us to revisit the 0.5 of the big wick we had made. So it's a big wick on daily. Here I am on hourly, but if I switch to daily, look, it's this wick here. And so, I simply took the middle, 50% of the retracement of this wick. Hop. I had already explained to you that often, very often, we come back to test at least 50%, and you see, if I take the 50% here, that's where I put the blue line. You see that we have precisely leaned on it. Precisely leaned on it, and we have moved on. So it is, you see, quite precise. I had told you that it was the same thing, but we had already seen it on Ethereum. We had already tested it. Look at the wick precisely there too. And then we had moved on strongly. Currently, however, we have returned to the long RLZ here for Ethereum. We will come back to it just after. So, so I'm coming back to BTC for now. So, as I told you, we have precisely caught up with the C05 of the wick here. Now, my trade was unfortunately not executed. You know with the spreads, the tiny difference, it was not executed. So I am not in the BTC trade, but I am in the Ethereum trade. We have already reached the targets I wanted, and above all, we have captured all the liquidity that was here. So now we have almost nothing left to recover. The liquidity is now truly to the north, and so, of course, that is very bullish. Moreover, we will also see that the market is in fear. So almost everything is in place to potentially move up again. A quick look at our friend, as I told you, Ethereum. So we went to look for the long RLZ here. So here, however, my trade was executed, you see? And so, for now, we have made a good rebound. Moreover, there was an OB here, and we captured all the FVJ that was here. Does that mean that, of course, it's good, we can move up again? Well, no, of course, it depends on the geopolitical news, it depends on what BTC will do, and we could always have one last crash. I don't know for what reason, a manipulation. But in the meantime, we have reached all the targets I wanted, and I think we have everything to potentially move up again. Come on, look precisely in terms of liquidity. Look at BTC here, what remains to be recovered. So, what remains to be recovered is at the level of 106,000, not even 106,000, 900, right here. That's all we really have to recover. After that, we have almost peanuts, but if we recover here, what do we have? 2 billion to recover. Whereas, look now above, how it is packed. So we only have 2 billion roughly to recover to the south. Whereas to the north, well, we have, you see, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 billion. The interest is clearly now to the north. On Ethereum, it's exactly the same thing. Look, there's nothing to recover to the south. There's, let's say, 1 billion to recover, even if we go a little lower. And we might go look for 2 billion, but we'll have to go very low. You see, 3400. We'll have to go look for 3400 to possibly go look for 2 billion. Well, clearly, it would bother me a lot if we went there, but well, you never know, it's cryptocurrency, but you see that to the north, on the other hand, you don't need to go very far to find a lot, a lot of liquidity. If we go look for 4600, we will recover almost 10 billion on Ethereum. Once again, the interest is to the north, both on BTC and on Ethereum. In the first instance, we had already recovered liquidity on Ethereum, but we had not yet recovered liquidity on BTC. Now, we have recovered liquidity on both BTC and Ethereum. So, so really, the next liquidity to be recovered is to the north, both for one and for the other. Also, anyway, if we look at the liquidity heatmap, look, we have captured, that's it, all these pockets here. Of course, there is still a very small pocket at this level. Anyway, there will always be liquidity, but we have recovered the essential. And look how packed we are now to the north. And especially since I'm only on a weekly chart. If I switch to monthly here, then clearly we see that we are packed to the north. Look here, we have a nice big pocket here, a nice big pocket here, another pocket here, another pocket here. All the previous highs, anyway, these are big, big liquidity pockets, and you see that we can even make new ATHs. Look here at the level of 135,000, it's the same. We are packed with liquidity. We even saw that up to 140,000. If I switch to 3 months now, I think at the level of 140,000, 145,000, we are also packed. We'll see that in a second. There, look at this. Look at this map in 3 months. Look at all the liquidity there is to the north. All this is to be recovered. So you see a bit above 140,000, 142,000, 143,000. You see that we also have liquidity to recover. We have a first cluster of liquidity here to recover. It's at the level of 116,000 here. There's a nice little pocket to recover. And then, you see that well, it's all to the north. We are clearly packed. So the market's interest is to the north, and you know very well that I am totally bullish anyway. Also, I had told you that if we continue to fall, the market will be even more in fear. Well, that's the case. Look, yesterday we were at 32, and we are still going down to 28, and we are going more and more here towards extreme fear. So we are not there yet, but if it continues, if we stagnate at least in this zone, if we only stagnate in this zone, then there are strong probabilities that here we will continue to have a market sentiment that is in fear. Even if we look at the data and we are factual, we have gone to key zones on the charts. We have recovered a maximum of liquidity. There is almost nothing left to recover in terms of liquidity. The market is in fear, and there is a lot of liquidity to recover to the north. Almost all the boxes are checked to potentially move up again. Again, geopolitics drives the market. If there is very bad news, then of course we will go lower. But since it is news that we cannot predict, we are a bit forced to rely on the data that we can actually see. Moreover, we must not forget that usually, October is generally positive. Look here, yes, there have been some negatives, there have been two negatives for a lot of positives, but currently, you see, that's it, we are in the negative. And I had told you that potentially, we would see the entire first half of the month be negative. Well, it's done, we are on the 17th, so we are in the negative, and it only takes a few days to truly finish with a positive month, knowing that we are only at -2.24%. It is largely, largely recoverable. If BTC makes a big rebound, then the whole market can strongly rebound. So possibly, we will have a positive end to October. And in any case, that's what I hope for. I also remind you that on the 29th, there is a strong probability that Jerome Powell will lower interest rates. And so, that too can be an excellent catalyst and excellent good news for the market. Come on, I also tell you that geopolitics drives the market, that's a certainty. Yesterday, we had news that was not necessarily very bullish where Trump had announced that it was a trade war, therefore entering into a trade war with China. And now, we have news that China announces its intention to work with the United States to find a solution on the commercial level. And so, immediately, things are calming down. So, anyway, they will have to find a positive resolution for both parties. They will have to find a compromise. So, of course, it creates tensions in the market, but I think that in the end, they will find an agreement, and when that agreement is announced, there will be strong probabilities that everything will explode upwards. Currently, we have this news weighing on our minds and creating some pressure on the markets. And we also have the shotgun that is lasting far too long, which should have already been stopped. Come on, let's continue with Treasury bills and ETFs, which now hold a combined total of 12.5 million Ethereum, or 10.31% of the total Ethereum supply. I don't know if you realize how bullish this is for Ethereum, because it means that more than 10% of the supply is locked up. And when there is a strong, strong demand for Ethereum, well, there will already be 10% of the supply that is locked up and therefore will not be sold immediately. And so, of course, that will create scarcity. And I remind you that the game is always the same, it's supply and demand, and to make the price pump strongly, if there is much more demand than supply, then of course it will skyrocket. And here, the fact that 10.31% of the total supply is currently locked up, well, I find that extremely bullish for Ethereum. Anyway, you know my position on Ethereum. I think we will go much higher. Come on, let's move on to SEC Commissioner Haer Pers, who stated that tokenization is now a priority and major for the agency and called for stricter protections for financial privacy at the DC Priv. So, in your opinion, why is tokenization now a priority? Well, simply because BlackRock, as you know, absolutely wants to tokenize everything. BlackRock is behind it, and if BlackRock is behind it, well, you know, it will advance strongly. So RWA, Real World Assets, will have, I think, in my opinion, you know that I am already exposed to this narrative, and you know that I already own tokenized real estate, and so I strongly believe in this narrative, and knowing that it is pushed by BlackRock, then I believe in it even more. Come on, we haven't taken a quick look at the ETFs, and yet it's important because we see that we have had big outflows, 530 million yesterday. Anyway, that contributed to the BTC dump, and it's the same for Ethereum, I think. Yes, we have also had outflows, much less significant ones, 56.8 million, but we have had outflows on both the Ethereum ETF and the BTC ETF. So, team, that's it for today's daily. We are having a really red week. Look, we have lost significant values. -21% on Link, -26% on AVAX, -24% on Aero, -32% on S of Sonic. In short, we've had a really red week, but remember that it can go very, very fast. We have reached, as I told you, in this daily, important zones. If we have a big rebound, if we also have good geopolitical news, we could move up very strongly. We have, of course, gold, you see it, a little everywhere, making ATH after ATH. It is indeed a striking piece of data, indicating that the market is in indecision and seeking protection. We are seeking protection with what? Well, with gold. And so, when investors regain confidence in the market, all that is currently in gold will be poured into much riskier assets. And who will be in the front line? Well, it will be our assets, our cryptocurrencies. On that, team, I'll leave you here. Have an excellent day. As usual, don't hesitate to click the subscribe button, like, comment, and I'll see you tomorrow in the daily, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!