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Hey guys, my name is Colin and this is Colin Talks Crypto. I have something extremely exciting to show you. This is my highly coveted Tether dominance top and sub peak indicator, and I'm going to show you how this works and why I'm so excited to take profits this upcoming time that this indicator flashes the sell signal.
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I hope you're doing fantastic, and I have a really exciting chart to show you. This is the USDT Tether dominance top indicator, and this is sort of a creation that I've come up with. Um, I do want to just preface this with this is experimental. I am still looking at other metrics, but to be honest, upfront, if this indicator does reach the upper parabola right here, which I'll show you in a bit, um, I basically will be taking profits regardless of any other metrics. Like, this metric alone would cause me, if it got that overheated, and I'll show you in a second here what I'm talking about, I would be taking profits by this, this singular indicator. So, it is experimental, but I obviously do have a high enough confidence in it to say that.
So, on the top chart here, we have Bitcoin. This is the entire lifespan of Bitcoin, 2009 to today. And on the bottom, we have the Tether dominance chart. Let me see if I can get the little indicator there. Yes, USDT.D, which is the dominance for Tether chart, starting from basically, um, really 2015 is where it really starts to show this. Um, and we don't have data that goes back further. So, it's possible the accuracy of this would go back further and extend back if we had that data. But probably Tether didn't exist back that far, or Tether dominance wasn't calculable that far back.
And it took me a couple of iterations of this chart down here to, I'm going to get this out of the way since we've seen that disclaimer. Now, uh, it's taken me a couple of iterations of this Tether dominance chart to come up with the presentation that I've got right now in its really most understandable form. When I first started out, I was using it linear. It was not logarithmic. It was not inverted. Thank you for the guy who recommended I invert this chart because it does make it a lot easier to correlate with the up moves being the up moves in Bitcoin, as opposed to having to, you know, flip it in your head. And what I've got now, I'm pretty happy with this chart is fascinating because basically, this upper blue curved line, this upper logarithmic regression line that touches every single point, the top, okay, which is actually the bottoms, right? But we've inverted it. So from this point forward, I'm just going to refer to tops as tops and bottoms as bottoms. But you're going to know that this chart down here is actually inverted. So these are actually the bottoms of Tether dominance. Okay. Well, what this chart shows is that every cycle high, like here's a 2017 cycle high, corresponds with Tether dominance touching the upper regression line. I'll show you these other ones in a second. And then likewise for 2021, we have a double top right here and here around March and around November. And you can even just follow the line straight down when I show you this, this dotted line with the cursor. You can see that that corresponds with a topping of the Tether dominance into this upper regression line. In both cases, even multiple contacts where there were multiple contacts for the 2021 subtop in March.
Now, this indicator doesn't only show cycle tops. It shows every major top and every major sub peak. For example, if we fast forward to the current cycle that we're in right now, let me zoom in just a little bit. Like, for example, when Bitcoin right here was trying to break out of the $70,000 range and it peaked right here in March 2024, that's when Tether dominance peaked as well, touching this curve. And then again, on this major move up to $105,000 or so, uh, when was this? This was in December 2024. So just nine months ago. That also corresponded with Tether dominance touching this upper regression line.
Now, if you go back over here, there are a couple points where they do point to kind of like sub peaks, but they're not as impressive. This is back in 2016. Like here, Tether dominance touches the upper regression line. There's a little sub peak, little spikes, right? It's pointing to spikes or it's pointing to actual tops. Now, we're far enough along in the current 2025 Bitcoin cycle, in my opinion, that I feel comfortable starting to take profits the next time that this touches the cycle high. And again, I want to iterate how long this metric has been valid for. This metric has been valid really since 2015 and marking sub peaks or actual peaks. It has always done that. It's reliable for marking sub peaks or actual tops. So that's 10 years of data. It seems to have become more reliable in the last five years because it's now really marking only significant sub peaks or actual tops.
So now we're zoomed all the way in, and we can see the last cycle and where we are in the current cycle. Now, here's a pattern that I noticed is that, and I drew these white trend lines, every time there was a topping of Tether dominance, following that, there was a move down like this. Every time Tether dominance broke out of that move, aka out of a trend line that touches a lot of different points. In this, if you zoomed in, you'd see it. That next move out, that next breakout of this white trend line always ends up going to the upper regression line once again, like it's sent on a mission. Once it breaks out, the next mission is another peak or sub peak. So you can see that back in 2021, you can see that back in the second top of 2021, um, Bitcoin found its second top. USDT dominance topped as well, exactly coincident with that top. Then Tether dominance began to drop, and it dropped, and it dropped, and it dropped. Kept dropping for a full year before you can see on this one a little more clearly. This trend line touches all these different points here, here, here, here, and then it breaks out decisively. And I know now that because of that decisive breakout, the next destination, however that path was to be traveled, you know, there's some volatility, but the next destination is a new top. And sure enough, a year and a half or a year later, we have another sub peak right here, smack dab. This was the $70,000 Bitcoin price.
So then Bitcoin has hit this top. Tether dominance begins to drop again. Tether dominance breaks out of this white trend line. And so we know the next destination is the top parabolic blue curve. And sure enough, there it is. Boom. Tagged it. When Bitcoin hit its next all-time high at that moment, its next sub peak, right? $107,000. Then it began to drop. Tether dominance began to drop. Okay, drops, drops, drops. And then right around April 14th, again, I was able to draw this trend line. Tether dominance breaks out decisively. And so I know, and this is bringing us up to now into the present part of the cycle. What do I know? I know that because its next destination is the top of this curve. My hypothesis is that the next destination for Tether dominance is the top of this curve, is to contact it probably around October. That's what a lot of the other charts I'm looking at are sort of saying. So I'm using those charts to kind of guess where this green arrow goes in terms of time, and then seeing where does that fall on this line. So, I think that that's what's going to happen. Every time previously that the Tether dominance broke out of this white trend line, the next destination was a cycle top or a sub peak. And we're getting late enough in the cycle, like I said, that I feel comfortable that this could be an actual top, or it could just be a very juicy sub peak. And maybe the actual top is right here, like in December or early January. But I think we're getting far enough along that it's going to be quite overheated. And I think it's a smart time to start DCAing and taking profits if that's something you want to do. Some of you just want to hold. I respect that. This is not for you then. But this may let you know what's going to happen and what to expect. But for those of us who want to skim some profits off for our hard work of HODLing for five or 10 years in some cases, this might be a decent time to do so.
Okay. So, I think that basically we're going to see a couple months of, you know, wiggling around, and then it touches this upper blue trend line, and that will correspond with Bitcoin having reached a new peak or a sub peak around October, maybe around October 20th, and that could be $140,000. That could be $150,000. That's kind of my guess. I think that Bitcoin is going to be somewhere between $140 and $150,000 at that time.
One other point I want to bring up is that this indicator does not tell us the price that Bitcoin is going to be. I want to stress that we don't know what price Bitcoin will be right here. It just tells us when we should be taking profits. So whatever price Bitcoin is here on this probable Bitcoin peak or sub peak, whether it's $145,000, $140,000, $150,000, when the line is tagged, that's when to take profits. So, it's a fascinating indicator because it's a time-based indicator, really. It's not telling you anything about price. And you have to look up here to the Bitcoin price as it gets closer to tagging this line down here. You have to use both charts at the same time to see, okay, well, that's what price it's telling us is the next peak or sub peak. And I'm not saying that that is a final cycle top. I'm just saying that it's either a sub peak or a final cycle top.
And I'm going to look at things like the global M2 money supply, the CBBI, which is at CBBI.info, my index with nine aggregate metrics rolled into one score for determining cycle overheatedness and underheatedness on a macro time scale. That's a very important one. I'm going to use the PI cycle top indicator. I'm going to also use sentiment, social media sentiment, which by the way, right now is quite low. It's not. I know that we have some people thinking that this is the cycle top, like right where we're at right now, $117, $123k, somewhere in there. I'm here to tell you that's very unlikely based on sentiment alone. You do not see market tops with low sentiment unless you have like a dying asset class, which I think any of you like myself who understand Bitcoin on a very fundamental level know that this is not going away. Like Bitcoin is an invention on the order of the introduction of the internet or email. These things like Bitcoin, digital transference of value over distance without counterparty risk, without third-party intervention, without permission, that invention is insanely powerful and is not going away. And if you understand that that investment point right there, it's almost like a cheat sheet because you know it's not going away. So what's the other direction? Gaining adoption and gaining value. So that's how I can tell you that based on the low sentiment right now, this is not the top. Some of you think it is. I think you're going to be mistaken yet again.
Now, I'm hoping that by the time we see the Tether dominance touches the upper parabola, and I expect to see actually that social media sentiment for crypto and Bitcoin will be considerably higher, perhaps in euphoric stages. Now, if it's not in euphoria yet, I'm still probably going to take some profits, but I might hold off for more euphoric stages and perhaps a double top where we have something like this. See how there's the two arrows in the uh, Tether dominance right here? This was 2021 on the first peak, or you could have a thing like this where there's a delay and there's another peak. Anything is possible, and we don't know. We're all just looking at models and making our best guesstimations with the data we have.
Well, with my experience and all the charts I'm looking at and all the data I'm looking at, this is what I'm looking at right now. I'm looking at taking some profits for sure. The next time that this line is tagged by Tether dominance, and depending on the heatedness or the overheatedness of all the other metrics I just mentioned, and then some more, u, some others like the Coinbase app rank, the Google search term result, etc. I've mentioned these in some of my past videos many times. Based on the overheatedness of all of those as a big picture, thousand-foot view, that will determine whether I take all the profits I intend to take right here, or if I DCA and I take some more, or I, I hope to take some more in December or a little bit later with perhaps an even more overheated, more euphoric Bitcoin price.
And one other point I want to bring up is altcoins. A lot of you wonder about your altcoins. I would say don't worry. Altcoins, although maybe not the same ones as last cycle, will absolutely see an alt season as we get closer to this next cycle top or sub peak. As Bitcoin dominance begins to drop, Bitcoin dominance really is the true metric of when alt season begins. Bitcoin dominance has to be dropping. So, that will happen. When that starts to happen, certain select altcoins will run up. And I'm not saying that your altcoin will run up. There's probably a point of the cycle where almost everything runs up, right? Because there's just so much FOMO and so much euphoria, but that's a very small part of the bull run. And you really want to be holding a quality altcoin for alt season. Um, but that's just my words of advice. Don't worry that there's going to be an alt season. It's more like a question of when, in my mind, not if.
So, that's what I wanted to show you guys. I find this a very exciting metric. It is experimental, but it's, I just tell you, I drew this upper curve, this blue line, way back right around here of last year, anticipating. I was like, hey, let's see if it works again. And so all this data here to the right is experimental, proven correct. I was very pleased to see that we peaked here and it tagged it again. I didn't know at that moment if it was the final top or not. Well, I guess I did because I looked at all, all the other metrics, and they were so underheated that I knew this wasn't a final cycle top. But yet again, Tether dominance proved that it can locate major sub peaks. So this is my way of saying that all this data to the right of this pointer, all this is after I came up with this metric. And so it sort of validated itself already, which I think is really exciting. Like it's already proved itself. And then what did it do? It did the same thing. It made this trend line and broke out of it again, just like it did all these other times. So, so far, it has given me zero reason to disbelieve that it's going to at least point at the next sub peak, if not the final top. And that's what I'm so excited to bring you guys today. This is exclusive. You will not see this chart anywhere else because I came up with this exact format and this exact way of analyzing this particular metric. All right. I think most other people have taken it as far as a linear chart, but not an inverted log chart, which is where the real juice, the real sauce lays with the inverted log chart. All right? So, if you see this anywhere else, you know where they got it from.
And I just want to close with saying this is not a guarantee. This is an experiment. This is not financial advice. And I don't know anything. I don't know my own arse from my face, okay? I don't know my arsehole from my mouth hole. That's for the lawyers in the future if I ever get sued. All right, guys. I hope you're having a great day. I've alluded to this metric for a long time, and now you got to see what it looks like. Have a great day. Talk to you again soon.
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