Transcription
And hello everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Sunday, October 26, 2025. who is in this daily broadcast as every Sunday at the moment. I will try to reassure you. I will show you what makes me say once again that for me, we will have a truly parabolic end of the year. Of course, I will repeat myself in this video, but for all the people who continue to ask me, well, watch this video carefully. So firstly and quickly, we still see that we have some nice little values. Look, there's Aéro which gained +10%, we have Cas which gained 8%, jupe 8% also, a +10%. We still see, we have a nice little green daily chart. We didn't do much yesterday, naturally, it was Saturday. So, we can see it here on our friend BTC. We did as every Saturday, most of the time, we stagnate, we don't do much, we barely moved. Perhaps today, we will have a resolution, either bullish or bearish. There is a lot of liquidity to be sought in the south, I repeat myself once again. So yes, in the very short term, perhaps today, perhaps tomorrow, perhaps early next week, we could have a bearish resolution to go and collect the liquidity, but that doesn't prevent the rest from being totally bullish for the rest of this year, meaning November and December.
So, first of all, we will revisit something, you know it here. I will switch to daily here. There we go, perfect. And we will take the Global M2. And I will start by answering a question because I was asked the question like, a lot of liquidity came onto the Global M2 but it's not BTC that benefited. Look here, indeed, it explodes, it explodes, it explodes, it explodes. And BTC, what did it do? Well, here, it fell very sharply. Yes, there was a rebound here, but we fell again. So I was asked, there was a lot of liquidity on the Global M2 and yet BTC didn't follow. There is a decoupling and BTC fell. And yes, and you are totally right. And this liquidity on the Global M2, it was on what? It was on gold. Look at the correlation with gold. Gold exploded. I don't know if you realize. In addition to the market cap of gold, it's absolutely enormous. So, we see clearly that here all this liquidity here that was not on BTC indeed, it was on what? It was on gold. Look at that. To what extent we have truly exploded. Today, we are making, well, let's say a top on gold. We see that we made a big wick here. So we might push back a bit more and then continue to sink. And we could see a spillover of liquidity from gold towards riskier assets. This could be the S&P 500, it could be the Russell 2000, it could be BTC and I especially hope it will be BTC and potentially Ethereum and the Altcoins. But in any case, there will be a spillover of liquidity and when it really happens, it will go to riskier assets. So there you go, first of all to answer this question, well, the liquidity yes, it was created, it was somewhere, it was notably on gold. Today, we see that we are here, so at this level. So we see here that we had made a last wick on the Global M2 and here, we did pump indeed on the price of BTC, there was a small correlation and then you see that we were heading to sink. I remind you that we had this date in addition and that we had said that we would probably sink afterwards. Well, that's what we did. Look, we sink, we sink, we sink and here we arrive however at the end here. Look, we arrive at the end of this fall and so we could very well have a beginning of next week where we will indeed look for liquidity a little lower to recover, to sweep all the liquidity before potentially leaving again. We have two elements. First, we have gold which is spilling its liquidity possibly onto BTC, at least partly onto BTC and that in addition, we have the Global M2 here which is increasing again, so that means even more liquidity, we could see, there, something that comes here, collects all the liquidity and then leaves again and leaves again relatively strongly to give us indeed our last big bullish phase. We see that here we have the Global M2 increasing, increasing, increasing, increasing, increasing and until when? And we see that it increased until December 15th. So already, we have liquidity that pumps until December 15th. After, we had a dump here, but then you see that we leave again and for the moment, we are rather in a stagnation phase. We will see again if the Global 2 continues to explode or not. But well, already you see I am already in January and almost February. So first of all, between the liquidity from gold which will spill over at one point or another onto riskier assets and notably potentially BTC and the Global M2 which here will stop, that is to say on October 29th, we have the low point and then we resume an increase in liquidity on the Global M2. And October 29th strangely coincides with what? with the Fed's decision. So there is a good correlation but we will look at that just after. And so we could experience the low point next week really if we go to look for liquidity a little lower and then finally leave again to go and collect precisely all the liquidity that we have to the north because yes, you know it, we have a lot of liquidity to the north. So that's the first point. The second point, we just saw it on Wednesday, October 29th, we have the interest rate decision from Jerome Powell, highly anticipated, we know that well. And so, of course, the forecast is a rate cut to 42.5 and the forecast is 4%. Now, we will see if we go down by 0.25 or 0.5 basis points, we will see that again. And there will of course be, which will be very important, the press conference which will tell us in what state of mind Jerome Powell is. So, so of course, very, very important to follow next week and I remind you that October 29th coincides with the end of the decrease on the Global M2. So perhaps it's just a correlation, perhaps it's just a coincidence but in any case, I am taking it into account. So of course, first of all, the fact that Jerome Powell is lowering rates, that there is a high probability that he will lower rates, that is extremely positive. And why in addition will he lower rates and why is he a little obliged to lower rates? I remind you here, this is something I have already shown you. We see that when there are peaks like this, it's the Fed, basically, to simplify so that you can understand well, that helps the banks. And from the moment they need to help the banks, it means the banks are in difficulty. And what we can see currently, in addition, is that look if I zoom in on the last few days, we saw not so long ago, perhaps last Sunday when I showed you that here, we had just helped the banks precisely on October 15th and you see that it repeats itself, on September 15th, September 30th, October 15th and here we continue, look October 21st, October 23rd, we don't stop helping the banks. So there is really an interest in lowering rates so that banks can borrow more cheaply if we want them to do well. So therefore, Uncle Powell clearly has no choice but to lower rates. So he will lower them and so it will be positive, of course, to activate the printing press. So that, of course, is a second correlation that makes me say that well, we are once again going in the right direction. Yes, sometimes it's long, it takes time and it's especially difficult to manage emotionally when you have wallets that are in the red and that continue to dump, especially on BTC and on our altcoins, that we see that we are reaching the end of the cycle. So it's really difficult. We have a lot of YouTubers indeed who say that that's it, we have already started a bear market. Personally, you know it now, I do not agree with that at all and I demonstrate it to you in my Sunday videos currently. Also, what weighs on our shoulders, we know that well, is the confrontation between China and the United States. We have a small piece of news, look at the US Treasury Secretary, so it's Bensen, who declared that discussions with China had ended on Saturday in a very constructive manner and discussions will resume on Sunday morning, so this morning, hoping that they will move forward correctly and conclude almost an agreement. And I remind you that after that, you have the two presidents, so President Trump and President XY, who should indeed meet and I hope it will be just to sign the contracts and that it will finally be settled. That will be an excellent signal also to potentially leave again. Well, Trump has also started attacking Canada. He also wants, I don't know if you saw this news, to add 10% customs duty just because there was an advertisement, anyway, I didn't quite understand what he didn't like or whatever. Anyway, in any case, it has nothing to do with China, it's much, much less important. So this also should normally move in the right direction. So we should have the interest rate cut. We should have an agreement, I hope, between China and the United States. We should have a spillover of liquidity from gold to riskier assets, notably our cryptocurrency ecosystem. There is also another point that was brought to my attention, it is this one. Here, I was told, "Look Romain, the addresses between 10,000 BTC and 100,000 BTC have fallen sharply." So, that means that well, the whales, the big whales are selling, leaving the market. And well, that's not quite it and as I said in yesterday's or the day before yesterday's daily, it's not that they are selling and leaving the market but it's that there is a balance being made, that is to say that they are indeed selling their assets that they held personally to expose themselves, but no longer by directly holding their BTC, but directly with ETFs. Why? Because as I explained to you yesterday, I think, when you have several million or even billions to hold by your own means, well, it's not necessarily easy to manage. Imagine if you had several million or several billion and everything was on a key, I don't know, a Ledger, a T-gem, anyway, that you are truly the owner and that these millions or billions are under your sole responsibility, well, you don't have peace of mind. So you are afraid with every transaction you make of making a mistake, of being scammed, of being hacked. Anyway, in any case, you don't have peace of mind. Today, they have the possibility to go through ETFs and to give the responsibility to people like BlackRock, Grayscale, anyway, to give their responsibility. So for a few fees, yes, certainly, but to gain psychological comfort, well, clearly, that has no price. And so the drop that we see here, well, that's totally it. It's a transfer that has occurred from people who were holding their BTC and who today are in the ETFs. Now, I'm not saying it's the entirety, but there is certainly a good part of it. Otherwise, believe me, this drop here, we would have seen a very sharp dump, and yet, you see what the price of BTC did? Well, it just exploded. It continued to explode. But otherwise, here, we would have seen a big, big dump because we are not talking about just anyone, we are talking about 10,000 to 100,000 BTC. So that's absolutely enormous. So there you go, I hope you have understood this part well. It's relatively important. Alright, let's go back to the charts. And something else that I have already shown you, it is of course the market caps of both USDT and USDC. Look here, we continue to print, print, print, print all of this. These billions. Here, there are 182 billion. These billions here, they will also be injected into cryptocurrencies. And here, in addition, we are directly in cryptocurrency with USDT. So this is not a transfer of liquidity from gold to cryptocurrencies or perhaps something else. Here, it's directly, USDT is already a cryptocurrency and it's to buy cryptocurrency. So when this starts to spill over very strongly onto, well, for example, Altcoins, onto Ethereum or even BTC, it will pump very hard because there are really a lot, a lot of billions. I don't know if you realize, but look here in one week, what do we print? We print nearly 3 billion. Here last week we printed more than 2 billion. And here this week, what did we print? We printed maybe 1 billion, but that's already enormous. And this is both on USDT and on USDC. USDC is the same, you see, we continue to go up all the time, all the time, all the time. We are truly skyrocketing. So we also have a lot, a lot of liquidity in stablecoins that are waiting for one thing, and that is to be invested in any type of asset. And here, we are really talking about cryptocurrency. So this also makes me extremely, extremely bullish. And the last thing, you know that I look at, it's the CBBI. We are at a score of 72 and you know, I told you in last Sunday's daily, we have never passed 90 during this cycle. You see CBBI confidence, we have never passed 90 and in previous cycles, well, it never happened. We were here, we were at 97, here we were at 100, here we were at 99. Anyway, it never happened. So I also tell myself that as long as it hasn't happened, that we haven't reached 90 on the CBI, well, we haven't finished the cycle. So this is something I am watching very actively as well. After, you know, there are many other small details, like first, the fear and greed index. I remind you that a bull run always ends in greed, in extreme greed. And we are really, really not there yet, look since the end of 2024, we haven't set foot in extreme greed. And so, well, if we are not in extreme greed, well, for me, we haven't had an absolutely parabolic phase. We haven't had euphoria, we haven't had retail coming back. Well, all of that is not the case currently. There you go, we haven't had any of that. So, well, this is an indicator that tells me that we are not at the end of the bull run. There are also the funding rates. Look at the funding rates, we are not at all in euphoria, so we don't have any leverage on the altcoins at all. On the contrary, we are rather in the process of shorting. You see the map, it's more blue than yellow. That means we are shorting when we are in euphoria. If I go back one year, look here. There. We were in the euphoria phase. You see how orange we were here. We were really, really exploding. And when was that? It was at the end of 2024. And yes, at the end of 2024, we had the explosion of our altcoins. So, yes, we were in a euphoria phase. Since then, we haven't had a euphoria phase. And look here, the map is more shorted. So, well, we are not at all, once again, in euphoria and therefore not at all in something that resembles euphoria, extreme greed, and even less so a cycle top. So there you go team, I hope I have reassured you a little, that you have understood all the signs of why I remain entirely bullish because well, we have almost no top signals. Yes, there are many YouTubers who keep saying, "Well yes, but we are in a different cycle, the institutions are here." Yes, perhaps. Yes, certainly we are not in the same cycle because indeed the institutions have moved a little, all that, but still to put a top currently, that would be to sweep away everything that happened during the last cycles because here there is truly no correlation with the last cycles. And there is even one last thing, look, if I take any altcoin, let's take Avax for example. Look at this here. What we did, this liquidation where we went very low because here, it really hurt a lot. We went from $30 to $8 in a single weekly candle. So that really hurt a lot. For it to be bought back like that. This is manipulation, you know it, we have already talked about it, it's manipulation. Here, this was bought back. And who bought it back? Precisely institutions that wanted to position themselves at relatively low prices. And well, that's what they did, and that's what they did on all altcoins. Look at that. To what extent they went to look low. Look, it's the same on AAVE. Look at that where they bought very low. And here, we couldn't even buy at that level. We were completely blocked on our brokers. But they, in any case, they positioned themselves and they bought. And believe me, they didn't do that for the cycle to be over, and for us to go into a bear market now. No, if they did that, it's to enter very low and to sell very high. So of course, I think we will go much higher on, for example, our altcoins, but on BTC and on Ethereum, of course. So there you go team, don't hesitate to tell me in the comments what you think of all this. Give me your scenarios, also tell me if I have reassured you a little or if it changes absolutely nothing for you. You think we are bearish and that we will go lower. Anyway, tell me what you think. In the meantime, I'll leave you with this. Rest up because next week, we will have an extremely busy week. And I will tell you tomorrow in the daily broadcast and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!