Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name's Andy. My channel's Finding Value. Today I'm going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together. Generally related to three different topics: wealth building, commodities, and/or financial topics. So, let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.
Uh, if you want to follow me, it's finance_core finance. And if you want to join our community, findinghightvalue.com where I dive deeper into all these sectors, looking for investment opportunities and sharing those opportunities with everyone in the community.
I do my communication with the community through two ways. Through midweek updates, their videos that I post on the website, they released Tuesday nights. uh and I share my opinions about the opportunities that I am partaking in and what I think looks good across the spectrum of companies that I follow, which is a whole bunch of different sectors and commodities. On the weekends, we have Q&A sessions. So, you can come and say, "Look, Andy, I don't understand why you like this or can you can you tell me a little bit about XYZ? It's confusing." So, that gives you an uh some time to interact with me directly and I can help answer at least to my best of abilities. Uh, answer your guys's questions.
We do have a coupon code special. Uh, the way that I would play it is I would sign up for the monthly membership. I'd use special as a coupon code. It ends up being 25 bucks for that first month only. See if you like it. If you like it, I'd sign up for a year. It's a $100 discount and it ends up being 500 bucks for an entire year. Most people in 2025, their returns were somewhere between uh, I'd say about 50 and 150%, the majority depending on how they weighted the companies, what sectors they liked, um, and how they entered and position sized. And I go over how to do all that as well.
Uh, in the beginning it might seem a little bit overwhelming because everybody wants to jump in and they just want to jump in real quick. Uh, they want to follow maybe what I'm doing in terms of my portfolio because I share my portfolios. Um, again, it's the opportunities that I present that I would be buying. So that midweek update is the one I would be looking at the most. Just just an FYI.
All right. So, coming in, Alfonso says, "That's a 17-year base in energy stocks. Every test of the range makes the next move more likely and powerful, and that's XLE. It's up against resistance."
Now, here's a little trick. Okay, here's the trick that maybe people aren't looking. There's a rhythm to this. There's a cycle. The cycle, let's pull up XLE. Get you guys all dialed in with XLE here. So, I'm going to back out. What happens here is the cycle. You get these up cycles, you get a top, and then you get a down cycle, and then you start over again. When we break up into these areas, uh, it moves in a certain way that humans imprint on the chart that the pattern is an imprint of human psychology. So you can trade all different markets and you'll still get the same patterns. They'll still move in the same ways because and and this is where people get it all confused. They say, "Well, Andy, energy has nothing to do with Nvidia." And I'm like, "Yeah, no crap, buddy." It's like, but humans both trade them. They're both priced in dollars. There are some things that are similar. You know, I if if humans are trading these two things and they imprint the psychology the same way, we can kind of tell what happens to some degree. One hump, two hump, three hump in the consolidation. So, this this is your consolidation here from 2008 uh all the way to 2020 is the bottom of the cycle. A lot of people told me, Andy, we're not in a in a in a commodity super cycle when we're moving up here. They say no commodity commodity super cycle. No commodity super cycle. No commodity super cycle. Guys, this is all part of going up against resistance. It's part of the cycle. It's it's you have to look at history.
So when we look at these things and I'm just going to go to copper first because that's breaking out. Copper leads a little bit in front of energy. All right, there's your three hump consolidation. Just like energy, if somebody tells me that this doesn't look the same in there, I don't know about pattern recognition. You got to go back to school. I don't know what to tell you what I can do there. See how this came up against resistance here? This purple's the resistance. See how we we formed an ascending triangle? The lows kept coming up into this resistance and then eventually we broke out and now we're running. Now everyone's bullish copper. Oh, I can be bullish copper. You should have been bullish at the bottom of 2020 if you could identify the cycle. And then people a lot of people tell me, "Well, Andy, you don't know. There's we're not in a super cycle." Okay, buddy. Okay.
So, why why am I telling you this? Why is it such a big deal? Because it's a firing order to some extent. I'm not saying that I can perfectly time the firing order. What I can say is pattern breakout. Now watch this. Let me just grab the pattern. Screw it. Let's grab the pattern. 2020 to where we are today. All right. There is the fractal. A fractal is a repeating pattern. And let's apply it to XLE because we can. Then I will hit V there. All right. Now, this isn't going to be absolutely perfect. It's going to be similar. Remember, we're not looking at absolute perfection. So, there is the pattern there. Does that look similar? Tell me if if it doesn't look similar, you tell me that it doesn't look so similar and we'll get you help. We'll get you help. So, again, this is going to be a a rough fractal movement. So, we're up like this and then that and this is this the middle portion and then that that is the same fractal movement. It's the human psychology being put onto the chart. So that's part of the cycle that I'm looking at.
This is just one aspect of the three pillars that I talk about on the website. Technical analysis because you can't use news. News is all garbage. I was just scrolling through Twitter and I was like I was like, man, there's a lot of garbage on Twitter right now. There is garbage after garbage after garbage. And I'm like, I don't even know what to present. There's so much garbage on here. So, I'm going to talk a little bit more about the setups. So, there there's your setup. This is going to break higher with time. I can't tell you exactly when, but with time.
Now I'm seeing all these people. Oh, it's good to short oil. It's good to short oil. Are give me a break. I mean, have you guys looked at the gold to oil ratio? We're at no man's land here. This is the cheapest it's ever been. It's the largest disconnect between gold and crude oil in the basically the history of the market. Now, some people will say, "Oh, that's not going to it's not going to correct. Go crude oil is not going to move back." Okay, I highly doubt it. Now, if we're at this type of cheapness, you have zero asymmetry. If you're going to try to short it here, it's the stupidest move you can do. What are you going to do? Try to short it a couple bucks and short it to $50 when we're at 50. What? I don't even know what we're at. 50 something bucks. Come on. That That's ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous in my opinion. The asymmetry is not there. I I just I'm I'm reading all these things on Twitter and it's like blowing my mind up. It's like what a dumb move. I'd be buying oil, not selling it. That's what I would be doing. But crazy crazy what I'm seeing here. And and and it's deals with these patterns here that that makes me bullish and how these are moving.
Bitcoin is worth its weight in gold. Few understand this. So, Bitcoin, which weighs nothing, is worth nothing in gold. Exactly. I completely agree. Tim Hack says oil is going to go a lot higher from here. The low is in is what he is saying. It's driven by war preparation and the attempt to hurt the manufacturing backbone of China with high prices. China is already playing the game in reverse by stopping other commodities from reaching the West. I don't know if the low is in, guys. I'm bullish oil. I know it's cheap. Making short-term price predictions is very difficult is what I'll say. We are in a bull market for commodities. That should be clear as day. You can see it in a whole bunch of different uh metals. Gold's our leader. It's ripping. It's already ripped. It is ripping. Uh, oil will follow. In my opinion, the chart looks pretty solid from a longer term fractal perspective. the pattern from the long term. In the short term, it could still go lower. It could, but statistically I it's like if you get dealt pocket aces, think of that as your value, right? You've got a good value hand. Pocket aces. That's what crude oil is. It's pocket aces right now of how cheap it is in relationship to other asset classes. Do you play the hand? Yeah, you play the hand. You play the hand that you're dealt and if it's a good hand, you play it. And whatever the outcome is, the outcome is. But you did what you should have done with the statistics and probabilities on your side. And you do that over and over and over. And if you've got good value on your side, then time is your friend. It's not your enemy. If you're shorting something at the lowest, cheapest time it's ever been, that is just called straight stupidity because you've got you've got let's just say um I was dealt pocket aces and someone else knows I have pocket aces and they're going to bet all in when I have pocket aces. I'm like, what are you stupid? I mean, that's just going full stupid. And you never go full stupid. You never go full stupid.
Coming down says, "This is not good. I really hate what I'm seeing." All right. What does he have to say? Let's read it. Gold up, silver up, copper up. I've been in this game for 20 years, and there's one setup that makes me worried. You're looking at it. This isn't just a rally. This is a warning. Here's what's happening and why I'm worried. In a normal market, the screen is impossible. Copper rallies when the economy is booming and gold rallies when the economy is breaking. They are supposed to fight each other. We are witnessing the breakdown of the risk parity model. No, we're not. We're we're entering. See, they don't know the cycle. They've been trading 20 years in a declining interest rate environment. Most of these people that I read, they have no idea what happens in an increasing interest rate environment. You know what's happening? Inflation. Inflation increases interest rates because the bond market doesn't want to hold bonds at a lower interest rate when inflation is higher. So they sell bonds. Bonds increases the interest rates. Gold, silver, copper, they go up at the same time in an increasing interest rate economy when the economy or an increasing interest rate environment when the economy is strengthening. And you're going to say, "Oh, well, how do you know the, you know, the economy is bad? We're going into recession." Okay, guys. I mean, have you looked at the charts of of steel and copper and all these other materials? That does not seem to be the case.
Says, "Smart money isn't rotating sectors anymore. They're exiting the casino entirely. The market is front running fiscal dominance. It knows the debt math is impossible without devaluation. They're dumping paper promises, stocks, bonds to buy things that actually exist, like metals." He's right. That's this that's the whole cycle. I've only seen this correlation one event three times. 2000, 07, and 2019. No, this is not like the these these were these were the bottom of the market. This was in a in a double bottom. What is coming is going to blow those things out of the water. It's going to blow this out of the water. It's going to blow 1970s out of the water. And it deals with where we're at in the in the long-term cycle.
Says, "Every single time the economist said that demand is strong and every single time we were in a recession within six months. When the industrial metals and the precious metals start going up together, the party is over. I've been in macro for 20 plus years and I've built a free guide on what to do in these conditions. And you're just starting to talk about this." You guys, the cycle, let's go let's go look at um, let's go look at copper here real quick. All right, let's go back to copper. The cycle started in 2020. That's what the three hump consolidation is. That big move, this move here depend I'm not this was the move he's talking about is from 2000 to to 2008. That was a commodity bull market. If you price say copper, let's do co I haven't even done this. Let's do copper to M2 money supply. So, here's copper to M2 money supply. It doesn't have all this data way back here. Let's do gold just because it's got all the data. So, copper to M2 money or gold to M2 money supply. I forgot the Come on. Okay. So, this is gold to M2 money supply. Um, so what what we're seeing here, this was a big bull market. It was the end of the bull market coming up here. It started in the 1940s all the way to 1980, an increasing interest rate environment. And the big bull market was like 60s to 70 uh 60s and 70s into 1980. That was the peak. This year is a double bottom. This bull market is going to be smaller because we're in the bottoming phase of this pattern. We're we're in a double bottom. This, in my opinion, is going to break all the way back up. So, we have a a long way to go. Uh, and they're going to be increasing the M2 money supply like heck. So, this is where you need to identify where you're at in this cycle. You're you're you're not you're not doing this little guy. You're going to go all the way back up from way down here, but we don't Well, maybe we do have that data. One second. Let me try to do X AU divided by M2SO. Let me try to see if that's got more. There it is. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There we go. There we go, buddy. There's the 60s. See the 60s coming in here. So, this is the bottom in the 60s and then we broke out, came all the way back up in this ridiculous move from here all the way up. This here, if you look at the Let me see if I can find that chart for you guys. really really quick. One second. Because uh it's it's important that you guys uh see this uh and I'll use this one. And they talk about bubbles, right? The the bubbles and stuff. So this one here is the Wall Street uh psychology. You get this disbelief phase hope. See this pattern right here? This is where oil's at. It's like oil's right here. Remember that pattern that I put in? And then this is what's going to come after. Um, we've got the this is this is called a uh a bull trap coming down. The bear trap is the one that's down here. So, uh, this is the the pattern. Now, look here. I'm going to I'm going to try to do something here real quick. So, you guys I'm again, this is the stuff I kind of teach. This is the stuff I teach on the uh the website here. some of it, not all. I I do a lot more than than that. Oh, man. I can't um I can do this. Check this out. We'll cheat it. We'll cheat it, guys. So, there's the pattern. There it is. So, I pasted it on here so you guys can see what I am talking about. You guys see this? So, this double bottom occurs over here. This is where the the So, you come on down. And you can see this kind of pump stuff here. That's what this is in here. You get a a double bottom. This is bottom one. Bottom two. This is I call this the lead-in pattern. Double bottom. One, two. And then we come and break out. Uh, this is your choppiness, depression. This is called depression here. Then we go up and this is the disbelief phase. This is the suckers rally and everyone doesn't believe in it. At the same time this is going up, you're going to start to see the stock market roll over. So that's that's kind of all baked into the cake. That's what the ratios are all saying. So this here is the ratio of uh uh gold to M2 money supply. Your big move up, then you go into a gigantic declining interest rate environment, declining interest rate, declining interest rate. Now we're coming out of the interest rate environment uh in 2020, which is the bottom here. Now we're going to start coming into an increasing interest rate environment, which this environment was back here. So, this is going to go all the way back up. You guys see that? This is the pattern. This is literally the pattern just to show you guys. And then you have all these people. I'm worried. Let me show you something else. If you can identify the pattern when it's down here and 2020 and you know that you got the three hump consolidation and all that stuff, you can buy and I don't own this company. I'm just using this as an example. Capstone uh copper. If you can identify patterns, and this is what I do on the website if you guys want to know. If you can identify patterns, you can get in these bottoms here. One, two, three hump. You get you buy in this bottom and then you can ride it all the way up. People are asking me, Andy, how come you're not selling even though I purchased down here? Because we're in a bull market. The money is made in the waiting. I have opportunities right now that are down here in other sectors, not this particular sector. This one is up uh 28 times your money. It's a 28 bagger. I'm just using this as an example. I'm just sharing it as an example. I do not own this company for full disclosure, but I do own companies that are up as much as this one and are moving higher. Just as an example, copper pump begins the next big rally. Copper prices surged 5% today, but this isn't a one-day story. Copper has been climbing for months, signaling exactly what is coming for the entire complex. The macro shift, the dollar is dying. The world knows it. That is why we are seeing a simultaneous run on silver, gold, and copper. Investors are fleeing uh failing fiat currency and trying to park wealth in hard assets. Well, that is true. Yeah, but you can see it with with the charts I was showing you. Again, the three pillars, the three-pillar approach is technical analysis, ratios, and market cycles. Market cycles entail a lot of what these guys are trying to fit into the narrative. They're trying to spin stories. Well, this is why it's happening and this is what it is. The problem physical copper inventory is selling out everywhere. Just like silver, once the fiscal inventory runs low, the price goes vertical. History is repeating itself and the industrial supply chains will accelerate the demand. The 2026 prediction, the supply shock is real. The currency crisis is real. We are entering the vertical phase. Expect historic gains. I'm going to let you in on a secret, guys. This is just the beginning. I don't even know what happens 10 years from now. We don't have the projects. We don't have the copper and same with silver. We don't have it. So what I did is I looked out in the future. Uh, I looked out about a decade. No one looks out a decade really. And I looked at all the supply demand characteristics of all these different materials. I purchased the bottom of all of it. And I'm still purchasing the bottom of some uh sectors that are bottoming. I'm still doing it. And people are going to start to catch on in the cycle that I was showing you. Remember that chart that uh when we were coming back up here, I'll bring it up again. The psychology of the market. We are still in the disbelief phase and hope phase. We're kind of in this general area all through here. And some of them are starting to break into optimism depending on where they're breaking. So copper, yeah, we're breaking into the optimism phase in copper right now as people are starting to catch on. And yeah, so that's that's where we're at with copper here. Other phases like uranium are starting to enter this. Uh, oil is still in the in the disbelief hope area. So when you come out of these double bottoms, you get this move and then you you chop sideways. is usually at resistance. Uh, and and that's what we're doing in a lot of them. A lot of people don't believe it. They'll make up excuses like this Venezuela oil thing. Oh, we've got Venezuela oil, therefore the oil bull market's done. Oh, you have you have it so wrong, my friend. You have it so wrong. Now, I'm not saying that it has to go up immediately. I'm not saying I know the short term. It could go sideways for five or six months. For all I know, the the the cycle is here, guys, and we're seeing it pop off, you know, boom, boom, boom. The the firing order can be a little bit different based off history a little bit. Like, it may not all be the same, but yeah, we're we're right at resistance here and it's going to pop off at some point. So, we're in this cycle up here. This is where stocks are at. They're either at thrill, euphoria, kind of like getting this last move. Uh, we could even be on the backside in complacency. But here's the thing. Some people say, "Why don't we short stocks then?" No, I don't want to short stocks because if they hyperinflate this thing, who knows? Maybe they go up nominally and they they underperform against hard assets. That that could be an outcome. So, I don't want to touch trying to short this stuff. Oh, I already I already talked about that one.
So, I'm going to end it there. That's what I've got for today. I didn't really see too much um on Twitter. It was all garbage. Like, I was just scrolling scrolling. It's like, oh my god. I in all honesty, guys, I'm getting a little frustrated with some of the people on Twitter. Like, everyone's just throwing these opinions out. And it's fine to throw opinions out. I'm not mad at that. I just I just I just don't agree with their opinions. And when you become a better investor, you start thinking for yourself. Uh, you really shut out all the news and and I call it noise. Noise is news. News is noise. Um, when you get good, you're going to there's like a rhythm that you get into a flow. Call it a flow, right? And you can look at all these charts, you can look at the valuations, you can look at the sectors, and they all exhibit, you know, similar characteristics. uh, you come into a deficit, inventories get eaten up, uh, you see bottoming patterns in some of the companies, and then you buy the companies. It's like it's that simple. And you just sit in it for however long the fundamentals of the sector are are favorable for it. That's it. It's literally that is it. And I just run around looking at the best opportunities, what's cheap, what's bottoming, and what is has big patterns. Uh, and I just go around. Now, I'm I'm I'm doing incredibly well. Uh, over the, you know, over the past, you know, since 2020 bottom, I've been absolutely crush absolutely destroying it. Um, and I hope it continues. Obviously, now I don't know short-term market movements. I can't tell you. You know, a lot of these people are saying, "Oh, we're going to get pullback and oil and then silver is going to get manipulated." It's all garbage, guys. It's all garbage. Um, I can show you with charts why it's garbage. Uh, I can show you how I approach the markets, the strategies, the companies, how I find them for outperformance. And, uh, I'm going to be doing that this weekend here. A lot of people want me to go over this stuff. Uh, which is, I mean, that's that's a lot of value there in my opinion. So, again, if you want to sign up, you can, especially with the coupon code. And if you want to see my approach, I'll kind of go through some of this stuff. But, um, I don't know. I'm looking at Twitter and I just I just shake my head. It's it it's a mess. I I feel for you guys on YouTube. Um, I used to be one of you guys. I used to be viewing all these different YouTube channels. I uh I was trying to use that information from YouTube and I guess Twitter, too. Twitter didn't exist back then, but YouTube. And I was trying to get an edge on how I could invest and make more money. And what I came to realize is that the experts are not that good. So I learned it myself. I said, you know what? I need to dive into this myself. And I I dove in. I was missing one of the one of the key I was missing a a component here here or there. Uh, I would say about 10 years ago. Uh, now I feel like I'm way more refined. uh, I can nail entry points, grab them, have a lot more confidence. The system and strategies work incredibly well. And I I started this this website because people wanted me to. Um, you the viewers on YouTube wanted me to start it. So I did. I just I started it and I said, "Okay, let's let's do this." And now I'm Yeah. I'm trying to teach you guys or or mentor you guys and and showing you exactly what I'm doing so you can replicate what I'm doing. If I were young in my 20s, I wish someone like this could have done this for me. In in all honesty, I wish I could go back and teach myself and say, "Andy, this is how this is how it's done." It took you 15, 20 years of figuring this out by yourself. Um, it's not really reading books. Books will kind of get you confused because half the books have garbage in it. They're not valuable. The technical analysis guys stay technical and the fundamentals stay fundamental. I'm a hybrid guy. I like both. And I know a lot of people they want to get rich quick. I get it. I get it. But that's not how you get rich quick. That's how you go broke quick. So there's there's things that you have to learn uh to expedite the process uh to get to where you want to go. So, that's all I'll say. Uh, if you guys are interested in joining, sign up. Uh, if not, that's okay. You can continue to view these uh YouTube clips. Um, if you guys have questions, put it in the comment section. I I'm more, you know, I'm more than willing to bet that a lot of members are watching this clip here and they'll probably respond to the comments. If you guys have questions about the the website, if you're on the edge, like, is this guy really legit? Is he is he really talking about um the returns that he's saying 50 to 150% that sounds ridiculous? Ask him the question, you know, in the comments. Ask people, you know, is this guy legit? Uh, what have has your returns been? How long have you been with them? Do you like them? You can you can ask all those questions.
All right, guys. That's all I've got for today. So, we'll catch you next time. See you.