Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review with a BTC that is breaking the small range we saw yesterday. We will of course talk about Ether and altcoins as well. We will review the four major cryptos that I am monitoring. Where I would place my orders in "fishing net" mode for the coming weeks, coming months in case of a drop. And among the altcoins I was asked to analyze, I have Sonic, Polygon, and XMN. So, I'll start here with BTC. Yes, we'll focus on BTC for the short to medium term, and then we'll do a review of BTC, Ether, Solana, and Hyperliquid, from where it might interest me to reposition myself and place what I call "fishing net" orders.
So, BTC, we saw it yesterday, it was lateralizing between two levels. Here, we are breaking this level downwards. We will monitor the 4-hour close. We will see if we have acceptance or, on the contrary, a re-entry. If we do something like this with a liquidity grab to bounce back, then we would be in a deviation, re-entry. In that case, we would have a high chance of reaching the opposite extreme. If, on the contrary, we start to settle below, then we will have a high chance of going much lower, knowing that we are on a major medium-term support level, the $107,000 level. If we start to break this range downwards, it wouldn't be very good for the future. It wouldn't invalidate my long-term scenario yet, because my long-term scenario is that as long as we stay above $98,000 to $100,000, we remain in an uptrend. If, on the other hand, we start to settle below this level, it could be the beginning of a long-term downtrend. Okay? So potentially 6 months, 1 year of a bear market or a range. Okay? In any case, it's a level I don't want to see broken. Otherwise, yes, in the long term, it would be rather ugly. So, that's what we'll really be watching here on BTC. Yesterday, not much happened, except that we have a breakout attempt of this range downwards, still with moving averages putting pressure. We see it again with the 15-minute tunnel which acted as resistance. We saw it yesterday, how it was a good zone here to look for shorts. Today, it still acts as resistance and perfectly in confluence here with the daily pivot point. So, we can clearly see that the short term currently dominates and pushes the market further into this rather bearish trend. And this is where it's better to try to trade in the direction of the trend.
Now, as I said, it's always tricky when we are at support levels like we are currently, because here we are more in the medium term in an interesting zone to position ourselves. We are clearly in a phase of uncertainty, I tell you clearly. If you are having trouble trading the market, if you are a bit confused right now, it's normal. Okay, I'm telling you, everything is going up. BTC is at ATH, well, we are no longer at ATH, but we are not far from ATH if we zoom out well, we see it clearly, we are not far from ATH. The S&P 500 is at ATH, gold is at ATH, Nasdaq is at ATH, all markets are bullish. For me, there is a sector that... we can't have gold making ATH after ATH with the S&P 500 making ATH after ATH. It's not possible. At some point, it's not possible. It won't last long. The anomaly, it's hard to know where it is. That's why we are in a phase where we need to be cautious. That's how I see it. That's what I mentioned to you recently. I told you to be careful, the end of 2025 would be very difficult. We are in this situation. For me, the big work has been done before. And if we experience 6 months of decline or 6 months of slowdown or even 6 months of doing nothing, like we had here, even here it was for 8 months, then if we do the same at this level, I will be ready. I could either do nothing in the long term if the setup doesn't trigger, if I don't have any positions triggering. In the short term, there will automatically be setups, of course. But I have cash set aside, I am ready to position myself if there is a drop. If it goes up, I also have something to do, and for me, I am more in a phase where I am waiting, observing, trading much less than before, because as I said, we are in market uncertainty and globally, I will spend a little more time researching, reading, documenting myself, making videos for you, training some people who have joined the programs, providing support, etc., etc., rather than actively trading, because as I say, I am not comfortable with how the market is evolving right now, and when you are not comfortable with a market, you are cautious. And I'm starting to think, "Okay, maybe it's time to start placing "fishing net" orders." You know my strategy, how I operate. There will be several ways. Either I will have cash that I will deploy when there is a drop with "fishing net" orders, as I said, or simply I will take major support levels, for example, weekly or even monthly. Okay? It could be this level, for example. It could also be this level. And globally, I will say to myself, "Okay, well, in this zone, it interests me," and then I will place several orders like this in "fishing net" mode. That's simply because I think these are interesting zones to start re-accumulating BTC. A simple example: $90,000 BTC becomes interesting again. $74,000 is also interesting. I'm not saying we'll go there, I'm just saying that if we do, these are zones that could interest me. As I put here, at that time, I placed "fishing net" orders from $78,000 and I placed them down to about $65,000. So, I was partially executed. Sometimes I'm fully executed, sometimes I'm partially executed. So, globally, for BTC, this is the zone that interests me to start repositioning myself. But with a small amount. Why? Because we are still high. That is to say, even if we retrace and go back to this level, you see, if I draw a Fibonacci, there, we are still high, we are not even at the 0.382 level. So, it's an important level. Okay. Where we can potentially lean on and set a bottom. I would re-enter slightly on BTC and I wouldn't do a full hold. I would still have cash, of course. So, that's a first zone. Then, we have this zone that I will really monitor, and this is a very interesting zone. And if we re-enter it, I will still keep some cash if we go back to $57,000 to $50,000. Here, there could be a wick or, you know, this kind of bottom that can form. I don't think BTC could go below this level. This is really in case we have a real bear market that is violent, and then we would already be at -60%. I don't see BTC going lower. We might perhaps push to -65%, but below $45,000 for me, it's very unlikely. So, I draw my zones and I am patient. I don't know if we will reach them. I have no idea, to be honest, but in any case, if we do, then I will be executed. So, there's BTC, I'm watching that.
Ether is the same. Ether, we are potentially losing quite important levels. Again, I'm not too comfortable with what Ether is doing. For me, the big zone will be $3,000. $3,000. I could slightly re-enter Ether. However, I still have good exposure to Ether, so I won't accumulate as much as BTC or Hyperliquid, as we'll see later. And then the lower extreme is globally $2,200. So, step by step. Here, I will have "fishing net" orders, and here as well. And then my second way of operating is that I can be partially or fully executed on "fishing net" orders like Ether, where I was fully executed at this level of 100 to 10005. There. Here, I was fully executed on Ether. I don't know how many R I had anymore, but I had quite a bit. Of course, I rebalance, that is to say, I take the total cash I want to invest and I divide it by the number of orders I have. And so, on Ether, either, well, on the four I'm showing you, either I operate with "fishing net" orders, or I will wait for us to reach a support level or a level of interest. And if I get a bullish reaction, a reversal pattern, for example, then it's to position oneself with "fishing net" orders, and here when I get the re-entry pullback, it's to position oneself more aggressively. Here, I'm in "Okay, I'm buying a falling knife, but I have so much conviction in these cryptos, and moreover, we are on weekly or even monthly supports, that there's a very high chance we'll set a bottom, but I'm not sure." Okay, but I have convictions and I can hold in case, because I know what I'm investing in. And here it's more like, "Okay, I have my bullish reaction, I have my confirmation that we potentially set a bottom, and then I also invest cash." Two ways to position oneself, both are complementary. You can use only one method, you can, well, that's up to you. Generally, I use both. So, that's for Ether. These are the two levels I will monitor.
Then we have Solana. So, Solana, we are currently at a support level, but I estimate that we are too high and I would prefer to wait. I had placed orders on Solana between 120 and 80. Again, I was executed at 60% from memory on this wick. For me, on Solana, it will be very simple. I will place orders again at the same level to look for this range. This whole zone will be a zone that will interest me to position myself on Solana. Again, I don't know if we will go there. I'm just saying that if we do, it will be a good zone to reposition myself. But I won't have a very strong exposure on Solana. So, the biggest will be BTC. Ether, I'll put a little more in. Solana, I'll still put some in, and then there will of course be Hyperliquid, which I will monitor.
Already, I made a good move there, I took good longs on Hyperliquid between $28 and $25 on that wick, which I TP'd almost entirely at $38 to $37. Okay. And there, I have "fishing net" orders again in the same zone. I put $28 to $25 back at that level. I estimate that we are at a level of interest. You see, it's this previous range that we broke. Okay, we liquidated quite a few people, but if we come back to lean on this level, it's a good zone for me to set a bottom. So, again, I have quite a few "fishing net" orders, and again, I will have cash available in case we lean on this level to set a bottom. So, that's a bit my strategy at the moment.
Then, on the ultra-altcoins, I have other cryptos that interest me. I even have other cryptos in my portfolio. I have, for example, Tao, but unless there's a bullish reaction at the bottom, I won't proceed with "fishing net" orders because the "fishing net" orders I place, I place them mainly on cryptos where I have strong convictions. So, BTC, Ether, Solana, Hyperliquid. On Tao, I have convictions, but not convictions as strong as BTC, Ether, and the other two. Okay? So, I will proceed differently. I will wait for a bullish reaction because I prefer to have a signal, I prefer confirmation, rather than positioning myself haphazardly. On Tao, I generally positioned myself around this zone. I entered in several stages. I would prefer us to go back to the lower extreme to position myself again. Then, well, I have Tao. There are other altcoins that can be interesting. There's Chainlink, but again, if we go back to $10. Here, we are much too high. It's not a zone that interests me. So, for the moment, I have these four cryptos. We'll see if there are any cryptos that stand out and form bottoms. But as I said, I prefer to be wary of this side because there are deteriorations, and I have a market sentiment, I don't want to scare you too much. It's actually complicated because the market can recover quickly and take off. And technically, we don't have any signs of a bottom. But I don't like what I see very much. I don't like it very much. Then, I can change my mind quickly. BTC, it can go, it can go very fast. There's favorable news. BTC recovers, it breaks $116,000, then there's everything to be bullish. We go back above this level, there's everything to be bullish. But currently, it's not great. Then, I can't be bullish on support. That's something I teach you very often. So, I tell you, the majority of people are short on support. I'm not short currently, but I don't like what I see. Okay? I don't like what I see. Now, we are at support, and frankly, it's often on this kind of sentiment, on this kind of dump, that opportunities can arise because when it's hard to buy, when you're scared, etc., then maybe that's where the opportunities are. What's certain is that I'm not shorting, I can't short a support level, but in the long term, as I said, deterioration, and I'm not a fan of what I see currently. That's why I have cash. That's why I'm making it work in DeFi. That's why, by the way, in the Crypto Investor program, there will be a DeFi module coming, because in DeFi, you can do quite a lot, even during a bear market. Okay? Of course, we won't make the same gains as when the market is going up, but in a bear market, the goal here is not to make the deal of the century, it's to limit losses, or even potentially make a little profit. Okay? But in a bear market, there are always opportunities. So, that's it for, well, BTC, we saw it quickly. And as I say, it's the same, I saw it quickly too. We are globally at this support level. I will monitor the weekly close. But if we start to go below $3,800 to $3,000, well, $3,800 weekly, it wouldn't be great. We are at a level where, well, it would have to hold, because if it doesn't hold, we could make a higher low than the previous one, validate a reversal pattern, and go for the ATH. But if it doesn't hold here and we start to make a lower low, we have acceptance below this level, then we will be in a downtrend. We could go lower. And my next zone of interest, as I told you, is globally the $3,000 level. But if weekly we start to close below, well, that would not be great. We would re-enter this level, and for the future, we could have a retracement. Then, it can very well do this, this, and this, and it changes nothing, and there will always be bullish price action if we start to re-enter levels. Currently, we are rather re-entering this support level downwards. Now, I'm waiting for the close, because on Ether, it can go very fast. We see it here, we see it here. We wait for the closes, because as long as we don't have a close, well, tomorrow we could have a bullish reaction and we could reabsorb a part. In the end, we have a good weekly close. That's why we don't rush.
So, I'll move on to the altcoins I was asked to analyze. GS, Sonic, on Binance, I won't have enough history. I'll take, otherwise I'll take FTM directly. Uh, is it? Yes, okay, perfect. I still have price evolution here. So, why am I taking FTM? Because it has been migrated to Sonic, so Sonic is formerly FTM. Be careful for those who don't know, often you have altcoins that get renamed, okay? And in the end, you end up with this kind of chart when the real chart is like this. So, where are we? We are at a major support level, a monthly support, okay, which for a long time had good bullish reactions. Each time, we see it clearly, W pattern, W pattern, we've reacted very often. Okay? And globally, we are blocked between two levels. We also have this major selling zone here. This is globally our cost line for this top pattern where we see that we've been ranging between two levels for a while. So, a range with a good amplitude, you have to admit, okay? There's something to trade on. There's frankly enough to make a x5, no need to go for a new ATH, you see, there's enough to perform. We are at a support level for now, no bullish reaction. We are pushing for bullish divergence, even validated bullish divergence, which shows us that sellers are weakening. But we still have a bearish trend here. If we start to form a bottom, structure a W pattern like we've already done, it would be at this level. If we start to have a liquidity grab, re-entry, we've already taken the liquidity here with this wick. If we go back there, there could be a setup to take. Okay? Globally, in this kind of setup, we generally look to enter at the time of the W break with a stop loss below the structure. Then, we look for 3 for 1, 4, opposite extreme targets. That's up to you to decide. Okay? We have quite wide stop losses since we are on spot long term, and especially invalidations are often on closes. We won't put an invalidation on a wick that can be hunted. No, we wait for daily or even weekly closes. That's the only setup I would see on Sonic. For now, this setup is not triggering. Why? Well, because we are in a bearish dynamic. We clearly see moving averages pointing downwards, 1-hour below 4-hour, 4-hour below daily. There's no buying pressure, and for now, we are more in a waiting phase. And that's why there are quite a few altcoins at major support levels, but what we need are bullish reactions, because for now, it's not great.
Then, an analysis of Paul, formerly Matic. Well, it's exactly what I said before with Sonic. You see, I can take the chart. There, I can take this chart, or otherwise Matic, and I go to crypto. And there I have the full chart. Uh, so Paul, formerly Matic, do I have the full chart? Yes, it continues to update. So, Paul, formerly Matic, I don't have Matic anymore. I had some at one point, I took profits, I got out, I sold, I bought back. Well, I had convictions that Matic was no longer following, and we see that we are clearly in a long-term bearish trend with moving averages pointing downwards. We are losing major levels. Okay. And for now, well, as long as we don't re-enter this level, for me, there's nothing to do. It's a major support level. Okay, each time, we avoid bullish reactions, we lose it, and for now, we are evolving in a range blocked here between two boundaries. Okay, it would be good to break this level. Here, we are, we are in this box. Okay, anything that comes back to the lower extreme can be a good zone if you have a small signal on lower timeframes, globally on daily, or otherwise a W pattern, or otherwise what we want to see is a break of the upper extreme with a re-entry here. If we do that, it's more of a bullish signal. We would go back above the daily tunnel. We could have an uptrend here, but we really want acceptance, a real breakout, not a false breakout, because here, yes, we are still in a bearish dynamic, and ranges formed by bearish dynamics have a higher chance of breaking downwards. Is this a crypto that will go back to its ATH? Matic, unless there's less interest and less community support, less overall interest than in 2021, it's a project that has performed, even in 2023 or 2022, there's something to be done. We see that here it made a small x4 quite quickly when all altcoins were falling, Matic stood out, but currently it's rather quiet. We see that the trend has clearly slowed down. So, not much to do except wait here for a bullish reaction with the validation of this reversal pattern.
And the last crypto I was asked about is XMN. Wow! I have no idea what that is. I don't have much history. Maybe a new crypto. I don't have enough history to do an analysis. I don't know its market cap ranking at all. It's a new coin, 1.87 million, no volume. 16 million market cap. Uh, yeah, frankly, on cryptos like this, be careful, many people look to invest in low-cap cryptos, there's nothing wrong with that. These are cryptos that can perform well, but you take a big risk. These are cryptos that can collapse. Okay? We already see the volatility on the candles. You see this daily candle, it's plus 40%. We reabsorb, there's quite a bit of volatility. If you want advice, either you have strong convictions from the bottom, you say, "Okay, I've found a gem and so on," and okay, you can take a small risk, okay? Otherwise, if you want to wait for better confirmation, wait for a W structure, this kind of pattern that will show you that a bottom is forming. Otherwise, it's too early to position yourself on this kind of chart.
So, I'll leave you with that. I wish you a very good end of the day. Be careful with cryptos, especially at the moment. If you have questions, don't hesitate. Also, join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description to have a good community. And I'll see you tomorrow for another video.