Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market during the US session, which is rather bearish on cryptocurrencies. In any case, we have a US market that is holding up well. So, we'll do a quick review. We'll talk about trading, levels, investment, psychology in view of the market phase. Many people are starting to get fed up, from what I see. And we'll look at three altcoins that I've been asked to analyze. I've noted Virtual, APT, and Chainlink.
So, we also had economic announcements. We had here the second estimate of GDP, which is well above expectations. That's not very good. Why? Because we want announcements that confirm that the economy in the United States is not incredible. Why? Because the fact that we don't have announcements confirming that the economy is not incredible will strengthen the Fed's hand in lowering rates. If, in the end, GDP explodes, inflation explodes again, unemployment rate, job creation, well, everything is going well. Well, what's the point of lowering rates? None, and the market is rather dependent here on these potential rate cuts that are supposed to happen in 2026. And when we have announcements like this, well, we see that the market doesn't react very well. At the time of the publication at 2:30 PM, voilĂ , we had a drop at the opening of the US market and we also dropped.
So, still in this phase of lateralization for Bitcoin, it's simply a range. This is where you need to be patient. Anyway, what you need to tell yourself is that 70% of the time, the market is in a range. 70% of the time in a range, 30% in a trend. So, this is something you must accept. Okay? After that, we can very well be in a range in the long term and in the short to medium term be in a trend. Okay? Different timeframes, that's for you to adapt according to your strategy and the periodicity in which you wish to enter a position.
Now, Bitcoin is not moving for the moment, still at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is the first support. This is a level that must be defended if we really want to make an ATH in, let's say, the coming months. Okay? Because if we start to lose the 0.382, I think we'll spend 6 months, 1 year on Bitcoin before making a new ATH at a minimum, similar to this bear market. When we broke the 0.382, we see that we bounced off it, and as soon as we broke it, the objective was 0.18, and then we see that it took us about 2 years to get back to this 0.382, even to the ATH, about 2 years, which is normal, we are on a weekly chart. So, if we start to invert our structure on such a long timeframe, we'll have to, on the other side, establish a bottom that will take time. There is very little chance that we will achieve a large top structure and then suddenly go back to a V-shaped bottom. No, that's only for low-liquidity altcoins. Here, we are on an asset that is starting to have much more liquidity than before. So, we even see how this bull market was realized. It is totally different from this one, and even more different than the one in 2017 because here we are simply forming steps. We see it clearly, we are climbing stairs, you see? Typical of a bullish market, a healthy market with good liquidity compared to this kind of movement or this kind of movement where there is strong demand but the downside is that afterwards, we fall quite a bit. So, if we climbed like this in steps, we should expect to descend in the same way. So, well, I don't know how far we'll go, but if we have to descend and come back to this level, we won't descend as quickly as we descended here. You see, we made a small staircase that is roughly similar to this one, and then we descended quite sharply here because we climbed very sharply. Ah, I'm not saying we'll have 8 months of range like we had here, but you have to expect a range break. A range break if we stay in this bearish dynamic. Personally, I trade less during these periods. There is less volatility, fewer setups are triggered. It's a period of losses, and it's the kind of moment where you need to take a step back, prepare for your year, for your 2026 that is coming.
Well, I'm not here to say, "That's it, I'm implementing resolutions." I don't wait for a new year to implement new resolutions. I find it a bit stupid, sorry if some people will feel concerned, but what's the point of waiting for January 1st of a new year to implement resolutions? You want to implement a new resolution, but right now, no matter what it concerns, personal or professional. However, it's an interesting point to review your trading strategy, to revisit certain setups. Why not? Because it's the end of the year, even if it can be justified like that, but especially because we are in a phase where not much is happening, there is less volatility, fewer trades are triggered, I spend a little less time in front of the screens as well, I work on other things, and I, well, I prefer to try to improve certain setups, correct, evaluate my trading journal, well, do things like that that will allow me to prepare for 2026. But here, we are in a phase, be careful with the trades you take, it reminds me of the phase here, March to November 2024, we lateralized for 8 months. Many people here lost a lot because they were impatient, they were overtrading, always having to take positions. This is something we see often, and in a range, you can lose much more money than in a downtrend because here it's a capitulation by time. And often, capitulation by time hurts much more than capitulation by price. Two things that are completely different. Here, it directly hits your capital. Here, it hits your mind. And often when it hits your mind, you make even worse decisions than when there's a strong dump.
Now, if you want to trade here, there's no problem, but your risk. That is to say, if you start with, I don't know, a risk per trade of 1%, nothing prevents you from, for a period of 2 weeks, a month, switching to, I don't know, 0.25% or 0.5%. And that's already if you have a 1% risk, if you have a risk of 15%, 20%, 25%, at some point you'll burn your capital. Anyway, everything is calculable. That's why I encourage you to do statistics, I encourage you to track everything because when you have, let's say, 300 trades in your trading journal and you know that out of 300 trades, you have a success rate of 40%. 40%? Some people will say, "Wait, I don't understand. 40% success rate means I lose more often than I win, but I'm not profitable." Yes, it's possible if you have a risk-reward ratio of 3 to 1 per trade, which means that when you, let's say, bet, you have a capital, your risk per trade will be $100. This means that when you win, on the other side, you win $300. So, a win largely compensates for a loss. So, it's possible. Consider, without taking trading fees into account, okay? This will vary depending on whether you do short, medium, or long-term trading, your exchange, many other parameters, whether you enter at market or limit, etc. With a risk of 3 to 1, you need a 25% success rate to be profitable, not taking fees into account. If you are at 25%, you will not be profitable with fees, but well, 25% to break even, so 26% to be profitable. You need to be right on one trade that works, one trade that works, three that don't, and overall you are at break-even. So, you just need a 30%, 35%, 40% success rate to be profitable.
Now, there are two things to consider: profitability, your success rate, and your risk management. You can have a 40% success rate with a setup that works at 3 to 1. So, that means you have a profitable setup, but you burn your capital. Why? Because it's risk management. And that too can be calculated. So, I can bring out a calculator here. Hop. Ah, if we do a calculation that is very simple here, I have a 40% chance of having a winning trade. So, I have a 60% chance of having a losing trade. Very good. If I do here 0.6, where is my power? H 0.6 to the power of 10, perfect, times 100, which gives me globally 0.6%. So, I was quick. In short, I took the percentage of loss here, 60% chance of losing. So, that means if you have 300 trades, globally, when you open a trade, you have a 40% chance of it being a winner, a 60% chance of it being a loser. I took the 60%, raised it to the power of 10. So, globally, I looked for the probability of having 10 losing trades in a row. And here, I have a probability that is logical, I could have done it in my head, which is 0.6. Which means that I have a 0.6% chance of having 10 losing trades in a row. It's very low, but it will happen. I don't know after how long, but it will happen. Okay? And if you have catastrophic risk management, you will simply burn your account because these 0.6% will happen at some point. Okay? So, maybe it won't even be 10, maybe it will be 12 losing trades in a row. I kept it simple, I raised it to the power of 10, but maybe it will be 12. Globally, you must have a strategy and good risk management. Risk management that allows you to withstand 10 losing trades. If you have 0.25% or even 1%, it's possible to absorb that on a capital. Now, if you have 5% or even 10%, well, you burn your account, plain and simple. That's why everything must be calculated. When I see some people who tell me, "Oh yes, I risk 5% per trade." Either you have a 98% success rate, which is unlikely, or you are simply not profitable. Everything must be combined: money management, your risk management, your risk-reward, the rate, everything must be combined, and that's math, and all that is calculable.
I'll quickly come back to Bitcoin because we've mostly talked about psychology and trade management. It's always important to know all this. I know that perhaps it can lose some people, others who are more long-term and not interested in this in the short term. But it's always important to have this culture to generally know how things work.
Well, on Bitcoin, yesterday, we saw that we were in the middle of the range, and the fact of going back below it is not a good signal, which causes us a correction to reach the lower extremity. We are still in this phase where we go above the middle of the range. High chance of reaching the opposite extremity. Now, high chance, we saw it just before, there are probabilities, so it's not 100% sure. That's why you need good risk management. Now that we're coming back to the lower extremity, ah, this is a good zone to look for. So, if I draw a Fibonacci of this movement, this movement, hop, we are currently at the 0.618. Buyers who have established a bottom here, it's in this zone that they will want to manifest to structure a higher low than the previous one to potentially break this level and make a higher low and higher high, in other words, a W-shaped structure and revisit the upper range.
Well, in any case, be careful, tomorrow might have low volatility, it will depend because it's not because we don't have participants in the markets, or at least fewer participants, that we will have low volatility. There will be less volume, that's for sure, but it's enough for a big player to come and buy the market, sell the market. There is so little volume and little liquidity on the exchanges that there will be, globally, less, there can be quite a bit of volatility, but generally it's quite rare. In any case, here we are back below the moving averages. The weekly pivot point, we see clearly that we break it and flip it into resistance. We are below the 3-minute, below the 15-minute. For the moment, we are in a good configuration here to take shorts, to continue the trend. After that, for those who do medium to long-term, well, set alerts below this low and above this high. There. And already you'll have a better vision when it breaks. There's no point in always being in front of the screens if you're doing long-term. Here, only traders will look for opportunities within this range.
On Ether, it's similar. Well, we rejected the upper level of the POC, the middle of the range, a bit weaker. And on this rebound, it had dug deeper, so it's a bit normal, but we came back to the middle of the range. We reject. Okay. So, we see that there is still selling pressure, and we haven't closed above, we are rejected. So, similarly, the objective is here for buyers to manifest in this zone to try to propose a W-shaped structure. We could be here on a daily W-shaped structure, a daily W-shaped structure to potentially build a weekly one. It's a supposition. Will we do that? For the moment, I have no sign that shows me that. However, if we start to validate this pattern, there will be a high chance of going back to the upper extremity. Of course, if we start to settle below $2700, well, it's to go look for the next support level at $2200. Then after that, it's similar, on Ether. Downward oriented levels, still below the 3-minute, below the 15-minute, below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour. Well, we see that we are pulling back on the 3-minute, we have a rejection. Well, for the moment, we are in a bearish dynamic. We broke this support level. We are at a key level here in the short term. If we break this level, well, we'll have a high chance of coming back to this market imbalance. We'll have to see if there's a buyer reaction or not. So, ideally, either we have a re-integration, and we'll have a high chance of retesting this high here, or we reject and we'll fill this imbalance. We'll have to see afterwards if it's to have continuity or, on the contrary, to establish a bottom. The goal is not to anticipate it, it's simply to react to what you have in front of your eyes.
Now, regarding the US market, it's surprising the decoupling there is between the US market and cryptocurrencies. It's quite wild. If I put, hop, you see, let's put Bitcoin here. Let's go to the 15-minute chart. I'll change the chart quickly. Let's put candles. Hop, remove this. Look at the decoupling, it's quite wild. How the S&P 500 is much stronger. We have here an S&P 500 pumping, cryptocurrencies dumping. The rebound is very weak, and there's nothing to say. Fortunately, the US market is strong, because if we had an S&P 500, Nasdaq, globally the US stock sector falling, I can't even imagine the crypto sector because it's really quite surprising to see such a big decoupling. We still have a Bitcoin that is perhaps 30-35% from its ATH, while the S&P 500 is not far from making a new ATH. It's a matter of a few percent. So, yeah, it's quite wild. I want to say for now, so much the better. As long as we have a market that is holding up well, well, it's reassuring. But on the other hand, I want to say, it's not reassuring to see cryptocurrencies correcting so much. So, we see the altcoins, it's really ugly too. I'd be very curious to see if we make a new ATH and we have a strong pump, let's say a bullish candle of 2-3% on the S&P 500, to see how the crypto market could behave. However, yeah, I can't even imagine here if we have a liquidity grab, re-integration, well, that would remind me of this movement. Here, we'll have to monitor if we have the same thing. And well, this movement was on February 20th. I'll show you what happened next on cryptocurrencies. It was here, February 20th, it was here. Yeah, we rejected afterwards, it was in 3-4 days, a -17% on altcoins. It dumped quite a bit as well. So, to follow up on that. I'll be very curious to see how we behave near the ATH. Liquidity grab, reaction, or on the contrary, a big breakout. We'll have to monitor here. It will be very important to see how we behave.
So, if I take the altcoins I was asked to analyze, I'll take the list: Virtual. Where are we? Here. Hop. So, Virtual, in this phase of lateralization, it's not the crypto that's taking the biggest hit lately. Well, after all, we did dump quite a bit. After the pump we had, I think quite a few people are stuck. I'd be curious to know the number of people who bought here because at the time there was a big craze for Virtual, so I think quite a few are stuck. There was an opportunity to exit at this level when we came back not far from our short reload zone, even when we came back to the 0.382, we rejected, so it's true that we still have good selling pressure. We haven't even managed to get back above this level. We are forming a range for now. We have a higher probability of exiting this range downwards. Okay? Why? Because from this range, we come from a bullish movement, and especially, well, it's not the most interesting altcoin, we have selling pressure on all cryptocurrencies currently. So, well, now we are at support, I'm not going to short at this level. And honestly, even if I have a buyer reaction like this type of pattern, no, buyer reactions, how do they manifest? W-shaped structure. W-shaped structure. If I put a MACD, I wouldn't be surprised to have a bullish divergence just before. Well, here we are pushing for a bullish divergence. Here, where are we? We are pushing a bit for a bullish divergence, maybe more on 3 days. Well, here we are pushing well for a bullish divergence, which shows us that there is a weakening on the sellers' side. If I look at the daily chart, we are also pushing for a bullish divergence. However, we still don't have a W-shaped structure. Which is what we are missing. A W-shaped structure that reverses our dynamic. We would go back above the moving averages like here. Good bullish candle, good bullish candle, we go back above the 4-hour. However, we are below the 1-hour. The 1-hour acts as resistance, the 4-hour is well above. We are missing a phase of lateralization with a pump and pullback. That would be a rather bullish signal. Well, that's it for Virtual.
Regarding APT. Hop. Binance, APT is very ugly. Be careful for those who have it and be careful for those who want to position themselves and for those who have it. Invalidation, I hope it was executed on your end. When we go below a level like this, and we can't get back above it, when I put moving averages, see the daily, we can't get back above it either. We don't have validation of a W-shaped structure. Here, it's ugly. It's ugly. Moreover, we had a pump just before the dump on October 10th, and we trapped a lot of people. And we are calmly retesting the wick. Here, we went quite low, around 80 cents. There is no buy signal on a chart like this. None. I'm on weekly. There's nothing telling me to buy here. Frankly, I don't see it. Frankly, I don't see it. Unless you're doing on-chain analysis. You have information that I don't have, but from a purely technical point of view, there's nothing. When will it become interesting? Well, when we have had a phase of lateralization with a bottom. At that level, it could be lower. I have no idea, but there's nothing at all here. I'm going to the shorter term, I'm putting moving averages. Look how ugly it is. It's ugly. The 1-hour below the 15-minute, well, the 15-minute below the 1-hour, we are rejecting for the moment within the 1-hour. If we break, the objective is the 4-hour. But there's no bottom forming here, there's nothing at all. Be careful not to enter too early on this kind of altcoin. Could it be interesting in the long term? Ah, if you have convictions, why not? For the moment, no, it's a crypto that can still be divided by 3. It's not because it's APT, it's not because it's crypto that it can't go down. After here, what did we take? I'll take from this peak, we took 80-90%. It's not because we had a -90% that we can't do another -90%.
And the last crypto, I was asked about Chainlink, which is holding up a bit better. Okay. After all, it's a high-cap crypto. It's not the crypto that has performed the best, but it's holding up rather well, and especially, we are on a major support level. Here, we had this big accumulation phase. We are coming back to this major support level. We are here in a range. You see, at our volume profile's value area high. Ideally, it would be good not to re-enter this value area high of $7.72. We can come back to the $8-$9 zone, it's entirely possible, but ideally, we want to go below it, because otherwise, we would have the re-integration of a previous value zone. Whereas for the moment, if we look really long-term, it's a bullish chart. Why? Because we have this volume profile, we break upwards, we move the value area upwards, and here we have another phase of lateralization. We have found a battle zone here, a price just between buyers and sellers, until potentially we have another pump upwards. Now, well, there's the context to consider. It's not an altcoin that is separate from the others, you have to consider it in the context of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, etc. If Bitcoin drops and loses 30%, Chainlink will lose 30%. It's entirely logical. Now, we are in a good buying zone. It would be good to go back above the POC. Here, W-shaped structure, bam, it pumps. W-shaped structure, a bit more amplitude, not easy to trade when there's so much amplitude, but bam, it pumps. Ah, if we do the same thing again, we'll have a high chance of going back to the opposite extremity. So, well. After that, I think we were almost back to the 0.518. Yeah. Around $34. This is a very good selling zone here, to take profit. Good price action localization zone, not far from $35, 0.118. So, well, this is a good resistance level, but for the moment, similarly, no buy signal on Chainlink like the majority of altcoins.
Well, that's all. Don't hesitate to tell me in the comments which altcoins you want me to analyze. I wish you a very good day and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.