BITCOIN : LE CALME AVANT LA TEMPÊTE 🚨 Analyse de 5 ALTCOINS !

Alright, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about Bitcoin first, quite quickly because not much is happening. We will mainly focus on five altcoins that I was asked to analyze. I'm catching up a bit and don't hesitate right now to put in the comments the altcoins you want me to analyze. We will look at SUI, BGB, APT, WLD, and SEI. And we will also talk about the US market. Before I start, I want to remind you, you have 24 hours left to take advantage of the current offer on the "Become a Trader" mentorship. This is really the last moment you can benefit from such a low price on "Become a Trader." It's the last time in any case that it will be offered at such a low price. Why? Because it's a program, it's now becoming a mentorship with the addition of live sessions. There was even the first live session earlier, which is also available in replay, for those who join in the coming hours, you will be able to access it. And this will be the normal pace now, one live session like this per week. Uh well, there were quite a few people, it's quite interesting. There were question and answer sessions. My goal is simply, as usual, to bring you the maximum added value. And so, we will do one live session per week, Q&A, scenarios, trades, market analysis. And in addition, of course, on top of everything you get in the mentorship with the live market briefing, the monthly trading clinic, the private circle, the coaching, and so on, you have 30 hours of videos that you can watch at your own pace. The goal is simply for you to be 100% autonomous. We have all the points here, all the points I cover are important. You just have to follow them in order and at the end, I guarantee you, you will be 100% autonomous. We talk about technical analysis, trading psychology, my best setups, my best strategies, how I operate, how you will operate. Adapted, of course, to your profile, your strategy, and the time you have to allocate. So, I invite you to follow all of this in order. And for those who have joined recently, don't hesitate to contact me to get access to the private group so you can benefit from the live sessions. In any case, if you want to have a method, a process, and manage your year 2026 and beyond well, I invite you to join the "Become a Trader" mentorship. You get €400 off by clicking on the first link in the description.

So, I'll start here with Bitcoin. It was quite quick because not much has happened between yesterday and these last few days, Thursday, Friday, it's globally a range. Now it's Saturday, Sunday, so low weekend volatility. I think we will consolidate and find a real recovery next week. Especially since we have economic announcements coming up, notably inflation in the United States, which will be on January 13th. So, we'll have to expect a lot of movement depending on whether the results are above or below expectations. We are currently pulling back to the previous H range. For now, well, it's a range, not much is happening. Personally, I'm in wait-and-see mode, waiting for a setup to trigger, to regain some momentum to trade here as I've already shown you, to do trend continuation. If I swallow an M&M that I just ate, it will be complicated to record this video. So, for now, I'm in waiting mode. That's it, simply. The goal is not to overtrade, not to take 10 trades a day. No, I showed you on a window that lasted a few days, I was looking for longs in the direction of the trend. Now, if I don't have a trend and we are in a flat market with low volatility, well, I just wait. The goal is really to frame your trading. Set clear rules. For example, after two stop losses, what do you do? If we have a ranging market, what do you do if you are in a phase where you are not doing well personally? It could be because you are sick, due to professional problems. These are all rules that you must set for yourself that will allow you to frame your trading. The goal is not to trade constantly. If you trade constantly, you are surely overtrading, you are taking too many trades, and that will just lead you to your loss, and your capital will just decrease in the long term. Frame your trading, simply set rules. Of course, rules that push you upwards, and that will involve backtesting. Take an Excel file, record all the trades you've taken, note the emotions you've had, and after 50 trades, analyze this file, and you will simply be able to see that, oh, this trade, I was too confident. As a result, I entered much too early. Oh, this trade, I had chained five losing trades, and I wanted to make up for it, I doubled my stake. You will see certain patterns repeating themselves in the errors you make, and that's how you will be able to correct them, and then you simply set rules in your strategy. You respect these rules, and that's how you can correct a strategy, for example. And currently, I am in a phase where my rules tell me not to trade. Why? Because we have flat moving averages, low volatility, I'm waiting for a real recovery, a real signal that will show me that we are in the direction of the trend, and then I can simply do trend continuation. So, for now, here on Bitcoin, I am still being patient in this lateralization phase. Those who want to wait for a break, well, set alerts below these levels, below these levels or above. And as long as we don't have a concrete break of these levels, we are still within this lateralization phase. And it's more logical to ping-pong between these two extremes. That's the only advice I can give you on Bitcoin. Yes, we are in phases of uncertainty. Yes, it's not like it was in 2023 when perhaps I was positioning myself a bit more for the next market movement. Honestly, now it's a bit uncertain. It's almost 50/50. Okay? And you know me, I often take risks in the markets, but here, I'm really struggling, and that's why I prefer to wait for confirmation. Protect your trading and investment capital. Don't do anything rash. The market will give you opportunities. It won't go in a straight line either. There will be retracement phases, and if it dumps, well, also prepare cash at much lower levels. The goal is for you to be comfortable. Okay? And ask yourself the question: are you already comfortable with your portfolio? Are you comfortable with the cryptos you have in your portfolio? Are you comfortable with the allocation you have? These are all questions you absolutely must ask yourself. As I said, I'm going fast on Bitcoin. On Ethereum, it's globally the same. We are inside a range, we are pulling back to the cost line around $3050. We are in a small consolidation here, a quite tight box. Plus, it's Saturday and Sunday, low volatility. And we clearly see the short-term inversion between an upward dynamic and a downward dynamic. And we are in a compression phase between the short-term moving averages acting as resistance and the medium-term moving averages. Here, the H4 channel acting as support. So, it's always more pleasant to trade in the direction of the trend when all the moving averages are in the same direction. Here, the best thing to do is to wait for a resolution. Either you trade with very tight executions, but they must be good, and a tight invalidation, or you simply wait for a resolution on one side or the other to have this type of pattern form again, i.e., a moving average cross upwards to then have all moving averages in the same direction. And then we can start a trend continuation strategy. But again, Ethereum, it's like BTC, it's simply a range preceded by a downward dynamic on a major support level. So, a phase of uncertainty on Ethereum as well, even though it has globally retraced more. As for SOL, we are coming back to interesting levels, but we are not at very low levels to say "Yes, the probability of a bottom is high." For now, that's not the case. So, we are also waiting. Ethereum and Bitcoin have low volatility too. We saw the two levels to watch. Break of the bottom of the range or break of the top of the range. If we break the top of the range, a W structure, there's a high chance of making a new high. For now, we are in a pause in this phase. Whether Ethereum or Bitcoin will outperform the other for a long time, it has been Bitcoin. Since April 2025, it's globally Ethereum. And now, we are a bit in a pause phase since August. There's also a lack of volatility on this Ethereum Bitcoin pair, which generally, when Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, we also have altcoins that outperform. It's often a trigger for an altcoin season. Now, "altcoin season" is a big word. For me, we won't have as many altcoins as we've known, but it can be a signal that shows us that altcoins can outperform Bitcoin for a while. This is also the Bitcoin dominance that needs to be watched. We see that we have re-entered this level, it acts as resistance. Making a lower low would be interesting for altcoins to stand out. So, that's it for BTC and Ethereum quickly. The US market, well, it's ATH, the highest closing price ever recorded. Everything is going up, SP500 ATH, Nasdaq is not far, Gold ATH after ATH. The dollar is also recovering. It's a party, it's all "to the moon." Honestly, I think there's an anomaly going on. These correlation phases where everything is green for a few days can happen, okay? It can happen for a few weeks, a few months, I don't believe in that. We'll have to see what happens this week. But in any case, for me, there's an anomaly, and it's impossible for everything to go up. It's technically impossible to see if everything is going up. That's why I'm telling you, the current context is not easy for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, which is why I'm more in wait-and-see mode.

Now, regarding the altcoins that were asked to be analyzed, we will focus more on the altcoins. Not much is happening on BTC, I prefer to take your altcoins and see what we can do with them, see if there are any setups that can trigger. Regarding SUI, we have retraced quite a bit. We have indeed broken a major level, and as long as we don't re-enter it, it's complicated. Now, we could propose a small W pattern. The problem is, we need to see where the pattern is forming. You see, if we have a close here, we have a W pattern validated plus a re-entry of this level. So, that's quite good. However, if we close just here, already one, yes, we have a pattern that is validated, except that we have an important wick, a wick that represents more than 50% of the candle, which shows us that there is a selling reaction, and moreover, we are still at resistance. So, for me, it's complicated to enter on this type of pattern. If it had been lower, okay, why not? But here, we are at a resistance level, and we are still in a downtrend. Here, I'm adding moving averages for the long term on SUI, the daily channel is oriented downwards. Yes, we have moved back above the 1-hour and 4-hour. This shows us a bullish signal that hasn't happened since October. We see it clearly during this entire decline, a typical case of a downtrend with downward-oriented moving averages. Here, there's something to trade in the direction of the trend and take shorts. A pause phase here, a bit calmer, and here an uptrend. Up to where? I don't know. What is certain is that the dominant trend, meaning the upward trend, is rather downward. At this level, we see it clearly, the daily channel from a price action perspective as well, a top structure. So, for me, here on SUI, the only signal that can be interesting is if we have a re-entry, and what we don't want to see is rejection here and making a lower low. If we do that, well, there's a high chance of entering a lower low, a lower downtrend, going to seek lower levels, and setting a bottom at a lower level. Will it be here? It could be even lower, we don't know. I remind you, it's not because it's an altcoin that performed well and was trendy and interesting. I myself, at this level, when it made a new ATH, I traded the trend. It was a textbook case for trend continuation until we saw exhaustion here. Now, we need to change our bias quickly. Here it's bullish. Here it's bearish, here it's bearish, maybe it will be bullish here. I don't know. We just need to be present at the right moment when we have inversion signals of this dynamic. For now, we have retraced quite a bit. If I draw a Fibonacci, yes, of course, we are in our reload zones. We have come back to the 0.786. A small tip: put 0.886 on altcoins. Generally, when we retrace, we often come back to this level. If I take this movement, it wouldn't surprise me. You see? Hop! 0.886. It's often the critical threshold for altcoins. Some altcoins will break this level and make lower lows, that's how it is. But for those that form a bottom, 0.886 is often a very good zone where the market can clearly stop. So, on that side for SUI.

I was also asked about BGB. Where are we with that? Well, I did an analysis not long ago. This analysis is still current. Here we had a big expansion, a big upward trend. Hop, 0.886 is our big zone of interest in case of a retracement. And now, we are in a phase where I cannot position myself on it. There's nothing to do. We are still much too high. Even if we come back to 0.118, we are on an altcoin that has exploded. I'm switching to logarithmic scale. We are too high on this. We are much too high. So, for me, there's not much to do here except wait for us to come back to an area of interest. For now, we are in a downtrend. The fact of closing and going below this level, if I add moving averages, we see that we are on the 3-day but below the daily, below the 4-hour as well. No sign of recovery for now on BGB. You have to be patient with altcoins like this. You have to be patient. Now, being patient can be risky in the sense that it can take off again, that's a fact. But even if it takes off again, if the market takes off and you say "Damn, I'm not in it." Actually, that's not the question you should ask yourself. The question you should ask yourself is: "Did I make the right decision?" Whether the market does this or that, you never judge your decision by the result of something. That's a fact. Tomorrow, you cross the road blindfolded, you don't get run over, the result is positive. Is your decision good? No. It's the same in many areas of life, you can't judge a decision by its result. So, it's not because you say, let's say, I'm not entering, and the market does this. You haven't necessarily made a mistake. On the contrary, if you put yourself in the same situation again, would you make the same decision? Every day here, I'm not entering BGB, there's nothing to do. If we come back here, however, okay, then it could be interesting, and if I also get a bullish reaction, why not? Of course, I could have a setup. But for now, again, I prefer to be patient when I have charts like this on a monthly basis where this is a market top structure, an M top. Well, I wait and I don't want to position myself haphazardly. Or here, we have a whole zone of imbalance, and if the market retraces, we can come back to seek a -60%. It's entirely possible.

Next, APT. Well, this chart is very ugly. It's all-time low after all-time low. It's a break of a major level. Again, you see, on APT, there's nothing to do at all, at all, at all. I'm adding the volume profile here. Okay. Hop. We see clearly that our value area low is very well defined. It's at this level. As long as we don't re-enter it, it's simply bearish. We are in a phase where we have broken the lowest point. Breaking the lowest point confirms that we have a displacement of value. Displacement of value means sellers are pushing more than buyers. We have acceptance. We can't say it's a false breakout. Okay? If we had re-entered at this level, okay, why not? But here, we have a false breakout. So, honestly, no sign of a bottom on APT until we validate this kind of structure. A W structure like this. Okay, then there might be a bullish signal to at least reach the POC or the upper extremity. Okay? Especially if we re-enter, especially if we re-enter. As long as we don't re-enter, we can just form a W structure, make a small performance, go for a x2, it's possible, and get rejected here. But if we re-enter, yes, then we have a high chance of reaching the opposite extremity. For now, that's not the primary scenario. When I add moving averages here, well, the chart speaks for itself. We haven't even broken the 4-hour, the daily acts as resistance, there's nothing, there's nothing to say, we have to be patient. We might be in the same scenario as in 2022 when we set a top on altcoins. We are below the moving averages, below the daily channel. Well, we have to be patient, I don't know for how long, but don't start immobilizing capital too quickly because if we do that, get rejected, go back lower, do that, hop, then maybe we build a range, okay, but if you immobilize your capital too quickly for 6 or 8 months, it's useless, it's stagnant, it does nothing at all, well, that's not interesting. So, again, on APT, I'm in wait-and-see mode.

WLD, I think I have the whole chart on Binance, if I remember correctly. It was listed on Binance from the beginning, if my memory serves me right. Yes. So, where are we? Well, it's pretty much the same. We see that altcoins are ugly. Altcoins are ugly, and re-evaluate your portfolio. I'm really telling you. Now, when I say re-evaluate, it doesn't mean sell everything, but ask yourself the right questions. Is your profile in line with your portfolio? If you're not comfortable, then it's not in line. Here, we see it, we are clearly in a downtrend. I'm not drawing descending channels or anything like that. It's just to show you that the trend is clearly downward. There's nothing to do on this. Like all altcoins, it's ugly. We are below the moving averages. We did nothing in 2025. 2024, it pumped again. Okay, why not? But now, we are making lower lows. We are still in a context of lower lows. Okay. And as long as, honestly, as long as we don't get back above this level, let's be more precise. Plus, we are on Binance, so it's perfect. I have good volumes. Okay. As long as we don't get back above the value area, again, we are globally at a lower low, there's nothing to do. We re-enter the value area. Okay, then we're talking about acceptance and potentially a bottom. But for now, that's not the case. This is how I operate on a bottom. So, three ways globally. Either I have a W structure, then you have to put it in context, how we did it, where we did it, etc., but either I have a weekly W structure, which shows us that a bottom has been put in place, or we re-enter a previous long-term range. Here, it's a range that lasted for 1 year from 2025 to 2026, or we break the daily channel, but again, not in any context, of course. These are globally the three signs that I look for. There can be others, but these are the most common. And well, for now, we haven't done any of that. Maybe this is the beginning of a lateralization phase, but in any case, it's too early. It's better to be patient when you are in this kind of context because if you enter too early, again, we can be, I don't know, let me take an example. What can I take? We can be, for example, you see here. After that, we made a new lower low, you see, we made another -70%. So, we can break levels, structure a small bullish reaction here, but not enough to put in a big bottom. So, be patient with this.

Last crypto is SEI, which might save the day. Not at all. I didn't remember its chart, but no, it's the same, it's catastrophic. Very few altcoins have good charts long-term. There are really not many, especially for mid-cap altcoins. Yes, it's catastrophic. Well, where are we? Well, it's pretty much the same. The analysis will be very quick. Downward-oriented moving averages, making lower lows since 2024. It's useless to do DCA on this. At some point, there might be a pump, but for me, this is an altcoin heading towards zero. It doesn't mean it will really go to zero, but it means that for now, we are in a downward trend. We can't even get back above the 4-hour, you see? Even though we have some altcoins. So, already on this rebound, it's not an interesting altcoin, there are stronger altcoins. And for long-term investment, it's not even an interesting altcoin either because we are also below the moving averages. So, again, a phase where we have to be patient to position ourselves. And we see that every time we retrace, we have pumps, but these are pumps that retrace to 0.32 or a maximum of 0.618. Again, we see it clearly here, 0.382. So, if there's an uptrend, potentially to reach 21 cents. Now, there might be a rebound to play, I agree. However, there's no "I buy SEI and I keep it for 5 years." No, no, not now at least. And even later, it's very unlikely that we'll have a chart that tells us to enter and keep it for 5 years. And the majority of altcoins, even all altcoins, it's a mistake to keep them for 5, 10 years or more. Keeping them for 1 year, 6 months, okay, why not? But otherwise, most are outperformed by Bitcoin. So, so that's it. In any case, again, a W structure is missing here to mark a signal. The majority of altcoins look alike. So, I'm done with that. Tomorrow, we'll prepare our week a bit. We'll see what to watch out for. In the meantime, I invite you to join the mentorship for those who want even more in-depth support, more advanced courses, and personalized follow-up. You have everything by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.