Transcription
Welcome everyone to the second segment of Stock Market C. Still by my side are Mr. Shi and Mr. Hao De. In the last segment, we mentioned that the Chinese economy has recently shown many signs of recovery. However, looking deeper, some figures are also worrying. For example, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the youth unemployment rate in March reached 16.9%, a new high for the year. Many young people have also lamented online that they are unemployed immediately after graduation. Do these two gentlemen believe that short-term signs will follow China's economic recovery, and will the unemployment rate continue to fall, or is it structural? Because the youth unemployment rate is very high in many Western countries, but China seems to have this problem recently.
You just touched on a key point. In fact, this is not a problem that only China has to face. Hong Kong also has to face this problem, or the whole world has to face this problem. Now that most of our economic growth momentum is slowing down, people who are already working will continue to work. For the new labor force, especially young people, how can they get opportunities to do this? In fact, it is difficult. In the coming period, as AI enhances productivity in a deeper and more diversified way, this problem also needs to be solved. Because my own child will graduate in a few years, I also have to consider this problem. In fact, it is difficult.
Returning to the situation in mainland China, the economy in mainland China has declined in the past few years and has now stabilized a bit. However, overall business activities, especially private economic activities, are actually slow. New investments and new ideas are not very positive in the domestic atmosphere. In fact, it is always private enterprises that drive job creation and economic vitality. So this is also related. This is why the latest youth unemployment rate is so high. Unless it is in some relatively special industries, such as the hardware technology and AI-related industries just mentioned, but they cannot occupy the entire job market. Not everyone studies science; some study business, some study liberal arts. They will have a harder time. Is everyone going to deliver food? Impossible.
In fact, young people in the mainland are also facing a situation where they have the conditions to wait. Due to the past one-child policy, the current new generation has grandparents, grandmothers, grandfathers, grandmothers, plus parents, several family members who still have income, and people with savings to support one child. Their motivation to go out and strive will also decrease. Of course, it's not that everyone is so rich. The mainland is vast and has a large population. Not everyone has so many resources. Overall, considering China's past population policies, the difficulty for the new generation of young people in the mainland to find jobs is high, while their challenge of being forced to find jobs is reduced. So this also explains part of the reason why the employment situation for young people in the mainland is like this now.
Mr. Shi, are you worried about the high youth unemployment rate? I personally feel that the high youth unemployment rate is partly caused by the mindset of young people themselves. For example, in Hong Kong, I contact many companies, and they can't find people. Those who come out to look for jobs can always choose. When I hire people myself, the conditions are agreed upon, but they don't show up in the end because they are hired by several companies. So it's not that there are no jobs at all. But young people now have more requirements for what they want to do. Also, as Mr. Hao De just said, they have the conditions to choose. The family's economic situation is not as bad as before. Last year, I met a tour guide in Europe who kept complaining to me that his daughter had graduated and was doing this and that, and she wasn't worried at all. He said that when they graduated, their families were very anxious about whether they had found a job. They had to do anything first, waiting for your salary to make a living. Now it's not so anxious. So they study this, do that when they have time, and change jobs if they are not satisfied. I see this type of colleague in companies. Not an employee of your department, but part-time responsible for filming. When she graduated, she was supposed to be working and studying. I saw that she had graduated. I said, "You are still here. Haven't you graduated?" I asked, "Why don't you find a full-time job?" She said, "This one is good. I don't have to go to work every day."
Will it be that not only the mainland and Hong Kong, but the entire youth culture is different? They feel they don't need to work so hard. Perhaps life has other goals now. Now that I am older, I see young people now emphasizing work-life balance. Before, everyone just found a job and did whatever earned the most money. Now people's ideas are different. But conversely, I think we shouldn't always complain that the next generation is not as motivated. I think sometimes the psychological state, if the overall social development stage is high-speed growth, people might think, "David is my friend. He earns so much money from this job. I can't fall behind either. If he can do it, I can do it too." There will be a spirit of striving. Now, perhaps your child, even after graduating from a prestigious school, seems to have no special opportunities. Everyone is lying flat together. They feel that the opportunities and ideas of those around them are similar. Everyone is lying flat. They don't feel particularly lazy. They feel everyone is the same. This is also a problem that teenagers sometimes face. They feel that this so-called "lying flat" is just that we can't stand it, but their experiences and their friends are in that environment.
The issue you need to worry about now. You mentioned the word "lying flat." It was very popular in mainland China at one time. But recently, the Ministry of National Security issued a document stating that "lying flat" might be instigated by foreign countries, leading young people not to work. Therefore, many internet celebrities have been advised to work hard now and strive again, hoping to change their destiny. If young people are "lying flat," how would you advise them? I don't quite agree with rationalizing "lying flat" because there are also arguments in society that sympathize with "lying flat," suggesting that it is the social system or government policies that have caused people to "lie flat." In fact, why do I dislike "lying flat"? Life requires a certain struggle and effort to give your existence value. Encouraging him to "lie flat" is equivalent to telling him to give up on life, which is not far from encouraging suicide. Of course, I'm exaggerating a bit, but some young people have really become shut-ins, living their lives with their phones, ignoring everything else. Now most families have few children, and the family can afford to support them. But I see that most people of our generation, when they first started striving, didn't have great ideals. Most of them couldn't even afford two meals. If you don't work, you can't even open the rice. So it is their instinct, their desire for survival, that drives them to work hard. By working hard, they progress through competition. "I originally had great ideals." "Now society doesn't allow my great ideals to be realized." "Of course, I'll lie flat." But the real world is not like that. I fear that with the rise of human productivity, there will be robots in the future. As Elon Musk said, in the future, most people will not have to work. If most people don't have to work, how will they enrich their lives? How will they achieve something? It might be even more difficult.
But Mr. Shi mentioned that there is a saying among those who "lie flat" that they still need to live. So many people might trade stocks to make a living. Perhaps when the market is good, they can make money by pressing two buttons and don't need to work. Mr. Hao De, do you encourage young people to choose to trade stocks full-time? Have you seen any successful examples?
First, I need to vindicate young people. Because I am half young and half old, I am middle-aged. Because I think it is the stage of social development that has reached this point, it is very obvious that... If we look at Hong Kong, people who became successful a while ago might feel they were a bit more diligent or had more opportunities. But in today's complex economic structure, the gap in capital and knowledge is very large. It's not that a young person suddenly has great ideals and can easily achieve something. Because if you don't solve the monopoly of capital and knowledge, it is very difficult to achieve a significant breakthrough. So there are some outstanding individuals like Musk, but for the entire population, their mobility is decreasing because they lack the advantage of capital and knowledge. So they feel they have no work to do, not because they are decadent, but because the objective environment has objectively limited them. This is a fact.
Another point is... From my perspective, I will scold them. Young people have a problem: I think their understanding of the world is biased. The original sin is not in them, but we invented something called social media. Social media, the internet. Most of their understanding of the world is absorbed from the internet. We all know that the internet is a dangerous object. It's not that it has no benefits, but there are some things we need to pay special attention to. First is stock trading. On young people's Instagram, and for older people, Facebook, you see others making money from stock trading. I rarely see anyone post saying, "Oh, how miserable, I didn't get the IPO" or "I lost money trading stocks." It's very rare. So they have a lot of understanding of the world, but it's biased towards the good side. So I think their understanding of these things is that it's easy. Stock trading is also like that. No matter what school of thought you follow, perhaps you are a fundamental analyst, analyzing industries and companies, or some are chartists. Chartists actually have a lot of knowledge. But what I fear most is that some people think, "It's just easy." "Whoever buys, I'll follow and buy." This is actually dangerous. Of course, it has been easier in recent years because the US stock market has been a super bull market for the past five years. Everyone feels they can just ride the wave. But the problem is that financial markets are unpredictable. They can continue, they can open 16 consecutive winning streaks. Even if I am in this industry, every era, especially in Hong Kong stocks, you've heard of young stock gods emerging from time to time, and they say they are very powerful. Of course, that happens, riding the wave. But how many can accumulate like this continuously? You will find that it is actually not easy. If it were that simple, with Hong Kong people loving money so much and loving stocks so much, it would not be easy to spend one's life trading stocks full-time. Many of them have such opportunities. First, you are lucky. Second, you know how to stop. Then you can slowly accumulate. But if you talk about young people, first, your capital is not particularly large, and honestly, your experience in dealing with market fluctuations is very short. Perhaps you can do well in a bull market, but not in a bear market. So my advice is, never make a living by trading stocks. If you like investing very much, you can apprentice, you can work in related industries, find a job, I think that is reasonable. You are very interested, and in fact, if you do well in investing, then finding a job is not "lying flat," it is rewarding. But there won't be an idea of, "Why not try trading stocks?" In fact, I know many young people are like this. Of course, in the end, none of them are successful. What's the worst part? I see many who don't go to work, try for two or three years, and then find out it's not feasible. Then they look for a job again, and when they interview, they will be asked what they did during those two or three years. Can they say, "I traded stocks at home, and I didn't win, so I went to find a job"? Perhaps some companies will give them a chance, but at the same time, there are several other competitors who have been diligently looking for jobs and self-improving. Companies tend to hire those people first, not those who have traded stocks full-time. A prodigal son returning is good, but the real world is cruel.
"Lying flat" is not just about trading stocks full-time or not going to work. Recently, it has further extended to several slogans: "Don't get married, don't have children, don't consume." This is said in mainland China. So looking back at the numbers, China's first-quarter marriage registration figures actually hit a new low, a decrease of 6.24% year-on-year. The birth rate in 2025 has fallen to the lowest since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. I want to ask Mr. Shi, Mr. Shi, do you think that if China wants to solve the problems of young people, should it solve the employment rate, or the mindset, or the birth rate? Do all these need to be solved?
This is a societal problem. I personally feel that the alarm bells are ringing, letting us know that if society does not make some adjustments in certain areas, we will continue like this, and humanity could become extinct. So I personally feel that there are problems in many aspects, such as values, government systems, and the distribution of resources. It's not something that can be explained in a few words, but it is worth paying attention to.
Mr. Hao De, are you worried that this trend will continue to affect China's development? Yes. In fact, for the past twenty or thirty years, a very important factor for China has been the demographic dividend. This is a very important aspect of economics... The development of an economy usually relies on a few things: one is population, the second is technological advancement or capital improvement. The demographic dividend is now beginning to dissipate, and the entire social and economic structure will face hardship. As I said earlier, those children now have several people supporting them. In the past few years, one person had to support several. This is a big challenge, but it is not easy to reverse. Of course, the global economy is like this. The more developed a country is, the lower its birth rate will be. So now the right-wing is making a comeback. The UK election, the Australian election, recently, xenophobic, nationalist forces have won. You see this trend in Europe starting a few years ago. Trump also attacked abortion and homosexuality, promoting more conservative religious consciousness, traditional ethics, and so on. The society is changing, and that change poses certain hidden worries for the future of humanity. So various forces want to solve these problems in their own way. Since these problems show no signs of being solved, the solutions they propose are becoming increasingly tough and extreme. The ideology is that as the economy develops and people's lives cannot solve problems, they don't know what the audience thinks about the deep-seated issues we have discussed, such as "lying flat," unemployment, and not marrying or having children. Feel free to leave your comments in our comment section. Our time for this episode is up. If you are interested in our program, remember to tune in every week. You can also like, share, and subscribe to our channel. We will see you next week. Goodbye.