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If you actually want to win your fantasy football league this year, you're in the right place because today we are breaking down the 10 secrets that the Vegas betting lines are telling us about this fantasy season. Now, if you're not familiar, I'm Salvetri. I've helped thousands of people win their fantasy leagues the last few years alone. And I plan to do the same for you with this video.
Okay, so what are these Vegas secrets? Well, let's go to it right here. They just dropped their player props or they have dropped them and they've been adjusted for some offseason OTAA news, all that. We're going to start with Jeremiah Love. They opened his rushing yard prop at 899 and a half rushing yards. Now, in my opinion, as somebody who started this fantasy off seasonason, Jeremiah Love, that is as a second round fantasy pick, the rookie with the Arizona Cardinals out of Notre Dame. That's kind of not the greatest line. I would like to see maybe a thousand rushing yards in your rookie season. If I got to spend a second round pick, now he sometimes falls to the third round. So, that's a little bit of a concern.
If you're not familiar with Jeremiah Love, this was a player who was drafted in the top five. He was probably like arguably the best overall player in this year's NFL draft, right up there with Fernando Mendoza across any position. and he dominated the last couple years of college. 6.9 yards per carry, almost seven yards per carry. I get it. Notre Dame had an easy schedule, but this factors in games when they went to the national championship two years ago against the toughest teams in the nation. He's putting up 20 touchdowns a season. He's putting up um 1300 rushing yards last year with his rushing and receiving like 1,600 total yards. There's a reason he went into the top five. Like there's very few flaws to his game, if any at all. But for fantasy football purposes, the one big flaw is just where he landed. He landed in a Cardinals offense that clearly doesn't have a legitimate quarterback, Jacobe Brassette. Their la they got the last offensive coordinator in the bunch. So like the play caller could be somewhat of a question, right? And in terms of backfield competition, they signed Tyler Aier, a proven running back who even gave gave players like BJ Robinson, the best running back in football arguably a hassle last year in fantasy because Tyler gets goal line carries and he's good. James Connor's still there. We'll see if he gets cut or traded, but he's still there. So like as of this recording, it's just a murky situation for a Jeremiah Love. Like there's there's also a chance that once again the Cardinals offense is just brutal. If uh Jacobe Brassette doesn't relive the magic he had last year, if he doesn't even sign a contract or if he holds out, then it's Gardenner Mchu and everything starts to get really gross here. The Cardinals also ranked 31st in rushing yards per game last year and were first in pass attempts per game. A lot of that had to do with a bad defense uh and not the greatest offense. So, they were playing in garbage playing from behind. That could easily happen again. I'm a little bit concerned for Jeremiah Love. Like I said, he now falls into the third round of fantasy draft. Sometimes he's the 26th overall player. If you can get him in round three and you already have like let's say your draft starts off with a Bejian Robinson if you have a top pick and then an AJ Brown in round two and then you get Jeremiah Love in round three and he's your second running back. I don't mind that type of build. But if you have to take him in round two and he's your first running back, there is a lot of bit of uh let's just say not as much security when you're in this backfield on a team that's not great.
Now the second secret Vegas is telling us based on the odds that dropped is the Packers wide receivers. Check this out right here. Matthews Golden's receiving yards for the season opened at 624 and a half yards. His teammate Jaden Reed also opened at the exact same 624 yards. Now, if you were to ask me before these lines dropped and before I saw them, who would be projected for more receiving yards this year, I would just say Jaden Reed. He's the more proven player at the NFL level, Matthew Golden really didn't do anything last year in his rookie year for the Packers. I mean, in the regular season, he only had 29 catches for a first round pick, just getting two catches per game, 25 receiving yards per game. He was kind of pigeonhold behind a Christian Watson, behind a Jaden Reed, behind a Romeo Dobs, and even Dantavian Wixs when those guys were actually out there and healthy. But no, believe it or not, same exact receiving yards, 624 as Jaden Reed right now. So, this forces me to look at Jaden Reed. Is there a concern with him heading into this year? The biggest concern would just be, well, he only played seven games last year, dealt with some injuries. Uh, this is a player who's never really earned reps in two wide receiver sets. The idea now is that he will this year now that the Packers wide receiver room has been cleaned out a little bit. That room being cleaned out. If we pull up the team changes tracker in my fantasy blueprint, you can check it out at joinb blueprint.com. You can see right here, they got rid of Romeo Dobs. He ended up leaving in free agency, went to the Patriots, and they traded away to the Eagles, Dantavian Wixs, which was kind of surprise to me, which now leaves their current wide receiver room of Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, Matthew Golden as projected starters, and the backups, Savon Williams, Bo Melton, who has uh bounced around between a defensive back and Packers wide and wide receiver for the Packers the last few years, and Sky Moore, who probably profiles out more so as like a special teams return if he even makes the team. So, you have a legit top three wide receivers with Watson being, in my opinion, like the clear-cut number one. He proved that last year down the stretch. was one of the best players not only on the Packers team, but one of the best players in all of football. That's why they gave him a big contract this off seasonason. But when you're looking at it right now, the fact that these guys are projected, the number two in this offense, who should be pretty good attached to Jordan Love, a quality offense, going to move the ball, number two is projected for the same amount of yards, that's very telling because right now Matthew Golden goes in the 11th round of fantasy drafts, the 125th overall pick. If we scroll up all the way to where Jaden Reed goes, we're gonna have to scroll a little bit here on Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP. Jaden Reed goes as the hundth overall player, 101st. So 24 spots before, meaning two rounds prior, despite the fact that Jaden Reed is projected for the same amount of yards as Matthew Golden. Now, you could say Jaden Reed's going to be projected for probably uh let's just say maybe more touchdowns, probably definitely more rushing yards, although Matthew Golden has endound potential. I think the way that I look at this, if you're getting a two round discount on a guy in the same offense projected for the exact same amount of receiving yards based on what the secrets Vegas are telling us are, I'm just going to take Matthew Golden there two rounds later. He looks like a screaming value.
Now, another wide receiver situation that's going to be the talk of the town all off seasonason is going to be the Chicago Bears. And their lines dropped and the leading receiver for this team based on Vegas projections is Luther Burn at 824 and a half receiving yards. Now, this might not be shocking to a lot of people. Luther Burton is like a trendy fantasy pick right now in the fifth round of drafts. Oh, some ads are popping up here. And Luther Burn it makes sense. He didn't get a lot of snaps last year. DJ Moore was on the team. He was playing behind Zakius as the wide receiver for to start the season. But when he was actually out there, top three wide receiver, not just amongst rookies, against amongst all players last year in yards per out run, he was absolutely dynamic. We saw that cap off down the stretch in the game against the 49ers where he had eight catches, 138 yards and a touchdown when Roma Dunay was dealing with injuries. So Luther Burton, we know that the upside is there. We've been getting all the talk this offseason of Ben Johnson saying he's buying Luther Burton stock heading into year two in this system. A lot of things to be excited about. But when you start to look at the rest of the receiving yard props for this team, you had Luther Burton right at 824 and 1/2 yards. Coulson Lovelin's right there with 749 1/2 yards. Roma Dunay is also at 749 and a half yards. So like once you start looking into this a little bit more, yes, on paper, the leading receiver, and it sounds good to have that title, is Luther Burton based on Vegas projections, but really they're all within like 50 to 100 yards. Vegas is basically saying it's gonna be a spread out offense. And we know how good Roman Dunay is. We saw his ceiling before injury last year when he was averaging 17.4 4 points per game, 74 receiving yards per game over the first four weeks of the season. We also know how good Coulson Lovelin is. If you look at his game logs, these are his fantasy points each game right here. If we scroll down towards the end of the season, let's get rid of this uh whatever this Kohl's ad is here. There you go. Free promo. You can see towards the end of the season right here heading into the postseason, 21.4 fantasy points, 25.1 23.7 was a top two tight end uh during all those weeks. Obviously dominated down the stretch. Um, so when we start to look at this, when we start to factor in the team changes page right here in the fantasy blueprint that DJ Moore is no longer with the team, they replace DJ Moore with a third round rookie, Xavian Thomas, sort of like a gadgety guy and Khalif Raymond uh, in free agency. It looks like Luther Burton is going to take that step forward in this offense. No doubt about it. But really, it looks like based on the early Vegas projections that like all the pieces in this offense are expected to take a step forward, which makes sense heading into year two with Ben Johnson. All these guys are another year older. Two of them were rookies last year. But it starts to make me question the price point of a Luther Burn who goes as a fourth round fantasy pick. He opened like in the early summer in the spring as a sixth round pick then gets moved up to the fifth round. Now he's going in the fourth round of fantasy drafts when you're just so projected so closely to Coulson Lovelin and Roman Dunce on your own team. I'm just not going to make that bet on you as a fourth round pick like as the slam dunk number one option in this offense.
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All right, next up, let's go back to running backs here. And I want to talk about Jakori Kroski Merritt, who Vegas currently projects for 549 and a half rushing yards. And to me, that basically tells me that they think Jakoy Kascarit is going to be a bust. There's no way in heck you should be spending a 10th round pick, a ninth round pick, whatever it is, on Jakoy Kimer when he's barely projected for 500 rushing yards. I mean, he was the trendy seventh round pick out of the Commanders last year. Took advantage of an Austin Eckler injury and some other injuries in that offense. And he ended up getting 805 rushing yards. But when you break that down, it's just 47 rushing yards per game. He also took advantage that his mobile quarterback Jaden Daniels was basically hurt the entire season after getting hurt in week two and dealing with lingering injuries. So that was a factor as well. But we know Jakory Kraker doesn't catch passes, just nine catches last year despite Austin Eckler going down with injury, just four receiving yards per game. So he's basically just a runner on the ground. That's not really going to cut it. Especially when you consider that towards the end of last year when he had just like average competition in Chris Rodriguez, Jakori Kaskkey took a back seat. Over the games when Rodriguez and JCM shared a backfield, Jakori Kimemer only averaged 33.7 rushing yards per game and four fantasy points per game. While Rodriguez averaged 12 fantasy points per game and 64 rushing yards per game. But he clearly got outplayed by Chris Rodriguez last year. And now you have like a similar talent in the backfield. And Rashad White, who they signed this offseason. They drafted Kron Allen. They also brought in Jerome Ford for what's worth, another veteran running back. And like Rashad White specifically, is he the best most efficient running back in the world? No, not at all. But does he have experience in a specific skill set? Yes, he's known as a pass catching running back. Like that's kind of his game. That was his game in college at Arizona State. We've seen that 51 catches, 64, even 40 catches last year in a part-time role. We've also seen him be a workhorse. that's in his range of outcomes in this offense. In uh 2023, he played every single game, 272 carries, 64 receptions in that year. So, he had 330 plus touches. So, I'm not saying that Stroll is going to get in this offense, but he at least has that upside. I think this is a split backfield once again where JCM, if anything, is like the second best option in it when you consider Rashad White is going to get passing down work. JCM right now is projected for way less yards than like other backup running backs. Like, he's projected for a 100 less yards than Jordan Mason, the backup on the Minnesota Vikings. He's projected for a 100 yes less yards than Kyle Manungai, the RB1B for the uh for the um Chicago Bears. Same thing for Jaylen Moore. He's projected for less yards than him. So like, do I really want to be taking JKR Krosky Merritt who some people think is the starter in Washington? Not at all. When I see his name pop up in like round 10 of fantasy drafts, going next to guys like Casey Conception, Malik Willis at the quarterback position, Matthew Golden across other positions, like just give me those guys. They all have way more upside in my opinion. Don't be taking JKR in that round. He's not offering you anything.
The next situation we got to talk about is the Jaguars wide receivers cuz they're going to give a lot of people headaches this off seasonason. Specifically, let's start with Brian Thomas. He's projected for 725 and a half receiving yards. Basically the exact same as Jacobe Myers as you can see right here. 724 and a half receiving yards. Um, they're basically saying he's going to have a down year and this is going to be a spread out offense based on where he's currently going in fantasy drafts. You can see obviously a tale of two seasons. Rookie year mostly with M. Jones to end the season. Breaks out almost 1300 receiving yards, 87 catches. Last year deals with injuries, deals with more competition. doesn't have M Jones anymore at quarterback. Just 48 catches, 707 receiving yards, and the Leon Con offense seemed like there was like frustrations non-stop. Leon Con didn't know why he wasn't going over the middle of the field. Then there was this wrist injury. Then they trade for Jacobe Myers and Parker Washington comes on and he kind of takes a backseat. And now when you're looking at it, Brian Thomas heading into this year, which is kind of surprising based on how last year ended, projected for the same amount of yards as Jacobe Myers. If we scroll up and if I could find where Parker Washington is in this uh in these overall lines here, let's look it up. There we go. We have Parker Washington 775 and a half receiving yards. What Vegas is basically telling us is, "Yeah, we have no idea. We're just going to project these three receivers at the exact same receiving yards. Oh, yeah, Brettton Strange is still in this offense. Oh, yeah, Travis Hunter is still going to play some offense and quarterback as well." So, what Vegas is telling you is basically what every single fantasy analyst is telling you. We don't know how this wide receiver room is going to break down. Last year, sure, it was the Parker Washington and Jacob Myers show to end the season in terms of the most trusted receivers for Trevor Lawrence, but the best talent in this offense is still Brian Thomas. We're also getting some glowing reports about Brian Thomas. He's the leader in offseason programs. Uh last year he was like the offseason MVP was Parker Washington. He's been really good again for Trevor Lawrence. So like I mean we're getting some nice things about Brian Thomas, but we're also getting nice things about Parker Washington, right? And Jacobe Myers was the most trusted player Trevor Lawrence said towards the end of last year. So when I look at this, when I see it's still Brian Thomas, Jacobe Myers, and Parker Washington, it starts to become the Bears situation that we talked about earlier where all these guys are just going to eat into each other assuming none of them get hurt. So Brian Thomas where he goes as the 67th overall player. If we pull up the ADP of a Jacobe Myers, let's do that right now. Jacobe, where you at? So Jacobe Myers right now goes as the 107th overall player. So he's going 40 picks later. And then you get Parker Washington who's going as the 78th overall player. So he's going about 10 picks later than Brian uh or Brian Thomas. So the way that I look at it is just give me the cheapest one. As it stands right now, easily the cheapest one by three or four rounds is Jacobe Myers. Based on the same exact stat projection, similar reception projection as the other guys, I'll take Jacobe Myers.
Now let's go back to running backs. I want to look at the new Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rico Dole. He comes over from the Panthers and the year before that the Cowboys where he excelled in both seasons. You can see right here 235 almost similar almost identical seasons. 236 carries last year for,76 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, and 39 catches. The year before that, just one less carry, three more rushing yards, same yards per carry, same exact um receptions as well. Back toback like similar seasons on uh on two different teams as well. And he's been really good. Like last year, if you remember when Chuba Hubard went down from weeks 5 through 11 last year, Rico Do was a true workhorse, averaging 20 carries, 107 rushing yards per game, and 18.8 fantasy points per game. During that time, he was also averaging five and a half yards per carry. He was arguably for like that month of the fantasy season, the best player in all of fantasy right there with like Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. And opposing teams knew he was running the ball. They weren't scared about Bryce Young in that passing attack. Like seventh most average defenders in the box, top 10 in stacked front rate, and he was still going out there and finding a lot of success. Now he ends up finding himself on the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's projected for the most rushing yards on the team. That's notable because Jaylen Moore, another experienced running back, is there projected for about 150 less rushing yards. Now, I will say with 42-year-old Aaron Rogers taking over as the quarterback, going to check the ball down a lot. He threw running backs 130 times last year. Jaylen Warren, he might only have 600 rushing yards or so this year. He's probably going to have also like 600 receiving yards. 50 to 60 to 70 catches is his upside. So, I think both of these running backs, the way that it stands, really look nice here. I think that if you get an 800 rushing yard season out of Rico Dole with two or 300 receiving yards and some touchdowns, that's pretty good based on where he's currently going in drafts because right now you can get Rico Dole as the 85th overall player. I mean, this is an eighth round pick. He goes around after Jaylen Moore with which I think is very justified in a half PPR and PPR leagues. Warren has a lot more passing game upside and I think that's where he can pile on the total yardage and receptions for those types of formats. But Rico D in round eight or so, I think that makes a lot of sense.
I also think betting on Kyram Williams at the cheapest price point he's been in like 3 years makes a lot of sense because the Vegas betting markets they're telling us a secret. They think he's going to rush for 1,000 yards this year or at least his betting line is currently at 999 and a half rushing yards. This is important because he's been counted out each of the last two seasons. But despite that in each of the last two seasons 1300 rushing yards, 1,250 rushing yards and last year specifically on less carries about 60 or so less carries because Blake Corm got more involved. Kyron Williams it worked to his advantage was more efficient at 4.8 yards per carry. ended up once again for the second straight or third straight season finishing as a top 10 running back. He's in an offense with the Rams that just invested heavily once again in their defense getting Miles Garrett. They still have an MVP quarterbacks Matt Stafford, right? Pugano, Dev Donte Adams. They're going to get to the red zone. So these 13, 16, 15 touchdown seasons each of the last three years, you could expect another big year out of Kyro Williams. The talk of the town has been towards the end of last year was like a split backfield snaps-wise from week 13 on with Blake Cororm. And that might be true, but it did not affect the upside and the money touches around the goal line and red zone for Kyro Williams. So, when I start to see stuff like this, the Rams running backs Kyle Williams and Blake Corm are expected to operate more of a 50-50 split this season. Like we saw towards the end of the season last year and even in the postseason, that's fine. Like, they can get a 50-50 split. I still believe that in the crunch minutes, two-minute offense, four-minute offense, red zone, Kyum Williams is getting the ball. That's who Shawn McVey trusts. So, Kyron Williams, where he's at his cheapest price point in years. Usually, he's like a middle second round pick. Now, he's going in round three, somewhat towards the end of round three as the 30th overall player. I think that's a pretty solid price point for where he is.
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All right, next up, I want to talk about Drake London because Vegas is just telling us very good secrets about Drake London. He's currently projected for 1,124 and a half receiving yards. That is one of the highest marks in the entire NFL right now. And it's very similar to some guys like a CD Lamb who are going in the first round of fantasy drafts. Yet, Drake London you can get in the middle to back half of the second round. And this is the same Drake London who has shown the last two years that he's an alpha despite who his quarterback is. If it's Kirk Cousins, if it's Michael Penn, if it's somebody else, right? Top five target share, 30% target share. He is the alpha in this offense. That led to him last year in this Falcons offense finishing as his best finish in points per game. Wide receiver six, 16.8 points per game. But if we actually look from weeks four through 11, when he dealt with his own injuries, but before he had another injury after that in week 11 and his quarterback, Michael Pennix got hurt. During that stretch of weeks, 4 through 11, Drake London was dominating in those six games. 24.5 fantasy points per game. number one wide receiver in fantasy, 11 targets per game, 108 and a half receiving yards per game. So, all of this is absolutely fantastic. And now you head into 2026 with the exact same target competition. Still Bejan Robinson out of the backfield. Uh, your biggest target competition amongst wide receivers is Jan Dodson and Omad Zakius. Not concerned. Kyle Pitts at tight end who broke out to end last year. Sure, but that's fine if he's out there. You could still see Drake London easily getting a 25 plus% target share. Michael Pennix, two are going to be are going to be your quarterbacks. Obviously, those quarterbacks don't give me the most hope, but we saw Drake London the last two years do just fine with that type of a combination of quarterbacks. So, I'm not that worried about it, especially since he's not a first round pick. And oh yeah, this guy is only going to continue to be that guy in the offense. A 43% first read target share. So, like when the quarterback looked for his first read, 43% of the time for the Falcons last year, despite who the quarterback was, he was looking at Drake London, top three in the NFL. This is an alpha waiting to just absolutely break out and maybe next year be a first- round pick. The fact that you can get Drake London right now as the 19th overall player, you're talking about the end of the second round, like there's a world where you start off your draft with a Puka Nua and a Drake London is absolutely unbelievable in my opinion.
Now, we go back to the running back position. Let's talk about the first round, the other first round rookie running back. We talked about Jeremiah Love. Let's talk about his teammate from college in Notre Dame and Jadarian Price, who Vegas right now has projected for 749 and a half rushing yards. Jadariian Price, if you're not familiar, the last two years in college, like we said, played behind Jeremiah Love. Uh, still was very good. Between his last two seasons, 746 and 674, he was averaging over 700 rushing yards per season, six yards per carry. Uh, he had 20 touchdowns scored the last two years. So, like, this was a very productive running back. That's why he went in the first round despite limited reps as a backup in college. Now, we don't really know about his passing down, pass c passing down chops, I should say, like pass pass protection, spit it out, s receiving as well, pass catching. So that is going to be a big concern. But we do know that there's not going to be a lot of competition. Kenneth Walker's gone. He's on the Chiefs. Sign in free agency. Zack Charmin to ACL in the playoffs. He might not even play football this year at all. If anything, he'll be back around Thanksgiving. So you're getting Jadarian Price, a first round pick competing with George Hani. Free agent signing Emanuel Wilson. And I get it if you're paying attention to OTAA reports right now. George Helani is reportedly the RB1, but that makes sense. He's the guy coming back with this roster. They played him in the postseason. They like the guy. It makes sense for the coaches not to just say from the first day of OTAAS, "Yeah, sorry buddy. you already lost your job, right? It makes sense to give the guy who was there last year some starting reps. Now, don't get me wrong, it's still up to the rookie to beat out George Hani when it gets to training camp and we get into the preseason, but I'm going to say that the first round rookie running back, a first round talent compared to George Hani, who I think went undrafted. If not, he was a later round running back. I'm going to just bet on Jadari Price here. Now, I will say like if Zack Char does come back in week 12 or 13, that's just terrible for Jarian Price. He's a rookie. it might take him a month to get going towards uh the first month of the season and then you're not going to get the final month of the season for the fantasy playoffs if Charbanet was to come back. That is concerning. But by all accounts, Vegas projects him as a starting running back based on his odds right now and Vegas has a lot of money on the line. So I think that I'm going to bet on them based compared to like beat reporters OTAA reports about George Hani. So as the 60th overall pick, meaning that he's basically like a fifth or a sixth round pick at the turn there. If he's your RB2 in like round six because you have a quick turn pick, I don't hate that. Do I think there's some other better picks here across other positions? Yes. This is the exact spot that I'm trying to get quarterback. Drake May, Jaden Daniels, Jaylen Herz. I'm trying to get those guys. I prefer DeAndre Swift, who does go a little bit earlier than Jadearian Price in this range, but I'm not against Shadarian Price where he currently goes at his current price point.
Let's stick with the running backs and talk about the king of the running back projections this year, and that is King Henry himself, Dererick Henry. He's currently projected for the most rushing yards in the market. Despite being 32 years old, he's insane. He's a freak. He's an outlier. Of all outliers, he's projected for 1,249 and a half rushing yards. Makes a lot of sense. He's still on a Ravens team that has Lamar Jackson where he did not show any signs of slowing down in his age 31 season last year. Still had 300 carries, still had 1,600 rushing yards, 5.2 yards per carry, still just absolutely went out there, dominated like despite a slow start to the season and Lamar getting hurt and the boxes being stacked against him once again from November to December, December, he dominated and won people fantasy championships. Now, the crazy part is, like I said, he's projected for the most rushing yards right now in the sports books, but guys like Saquon Barkley who are projected for 150 less. Guys like Bejan who are projected for 100 less. Um, who else is in this? Jonathan Taylor who's projected for the same amount. Like these guys all go around ahead of him. They're going as the top picks in the draft in your Jonathan Taylor's top five pick usually top six. Bejian number one or number two usually. And that's justified, right? Those guys have better pass catching upside and they're younger, more in their prime than Derrick Henry. But don't sleep once again on Derrick Henry who continues to go in late round two. Where it currently stands, Henry is the 22nd overall pick in drafts. Now, if you were to start your draft off with, let's just say, a Pukanu or Jamar Chase and you got your stud wide receiver and you wanted to make sure you secured your running back in round two, Derrick Henry is the perfect player to be taking in that range and arguably the only player to be taking towards the end of the second round at the running back position in fantasy draft.
So, these are 10 players that Vegas is currently telling us secrets about and how it will impact you in your fantasy football season. Now, I appreciate you all tuning in to this video. And if you want to see the five players that I would personally bet my house on this year, that's how confident I am in them, you can check out this video right here. It's across different positions. I think it will help you out a ton.