Transcription
I must say that Iran has succeeded in this game. When inflation equals or exceeds, or is higher than, the Fed's interest rate, that is the death knell for the United States. For every 1% increase in interest rates for the US, they have to pay an additional 0.44 trillion dollars in interest. And if there is another election in 4 months, no need to guess, in November, Trump will definitely lose overwhelmingly. It will then become that the remaining 2 years of Trump's presidential term will be under even worse than a lame duck. A lame duck is a sitting duck. So what does that mean? It means you are president, your party or the party controls but both houses are held by Democrats. This implication is very important. Because if it changes, Trump can fall from the throne. And not just fall, he could be impeached. [Music] The first reason, economically, is the big one. This is the most important core that many people might understand some formulas, but I will lay it out clearly for everyone. Economically, what does it mean? It means the US currency and economy, it's like this. In the past 2-3 months, before the war, US inflation was low, around 2.6%, 2.55%, something like that, right? Which was close to the Fed's target of 2%. At that time, everyone was relieved and guessed that the Fed would lower interest rates. Now, after only 2 months of war, inflation jumped from over 2% to over 3%, then to 3.8%, and most recently, 4.2%. This is the most important part. When we are talking now, inflation was probably around 3.3, 3.5, something like that, I don't remember, but it wasn't 3.8 yet. Because the latest number is 4.2. Going back one month, it was 3.8, right? But if we go back another month, it might also be in the 3s. What I think is that it will force, it will choke the Fed, that the war must end. Because I want everyone to note this down. When, when inflation equals or exceeds, or is higher than, the Fed's interest rate, that is the point, it's called a very important point, or the death knell for the United States. In English, we call it Achilles' Heel. But now we have to call it Trump's Hill. Let's adjust the analogy a bit. Many of you probably know about Achilles' Heel. Achilles was a hero. If we look at the story of the Trojan War, there was Achilles, the son of a god. When he was a child, his mother didn't want him to die, so she held him by the heel, almost said another word, the heel, and dipped him in the river of immortality. >> Yes. >> So, when dipped, he was invulnerable everywhere except for the heel. That's the short story. >> The ankle. >> Why is it the ankle? And how does it relate to the death of a person or a country? Now, back to the US. Trump's Hill has exactly 3 points. It's a bit much. We need to add an 's'. Hill number 1 is if the interest rate starts to exceed, which it has. 4.2 versus 3.7, right? Right? The interest rate is 3.7, inflation is 4.2. >> And inflation of 4.2% was in May, when oil was around $102. Let's assume the war doesn't end this month, June. And oil might be around $110. Let's assume. What happens? The inflation announcement next month, June, in July, next month, you will definitely see inflation exceed 4.2%, right? Because the oil base of 102 was in May, which resulted in 4.2% CPI or PCE. Now, if oil exceeds 102, it's over. Inflation will surge again. This means the gap between the Fed's interest rate and inflation will widen. I'm telling you, it doesn't have to be a big gap. Just 0.5%, 1.7%, 7% is enough to kill. Do you know why? Because this alone, the result will slowly seep into the US economy. And what will happen? When inflation starts to rise, simply put, when your interest rates are low and inflation is high, it means you can't control inflation. So, inflation will creep into expenses through the bond market, the US Treasury market, and US debt. For every 1% increase in interest rates for the US, >> they have to pay an additional 0.44 trillion dollars in interest. Is that a lot? It's a lot. Therefore, this is the first point where I say you have succeeded. Iran's Hill, point 1. Point 2, domestic politics. This is called their own politics. They call it political science. This comes from political science. Because if you don't finish this month, this June, you have only 4 months left. Midterm elections are coming up. And right now, no need to ask, 60-70% of Americans say they don't want the war, end it already, they're tired of it. But Trump still refuses to end it. Before. And if there is another election in 4 months, no need to guess. In November, Trump will definitely lose overwhelmingly. It will then become that the remaining 2 years of Trump's presidential term will be under even worse than a lame duck. A lame duck is a sitting duck. So what does that mean? It means you are president, the Republican party, but both houses are held by Democrats. Anything you propose will lose. There's no way to win, just like today, anything you propose, you win. You saw that before, right? Because the Republicans held both houses. It's the complete opposite. Actually, the sentiment is similar to Palang Pracharath now. Anything proposed wins, mostly. Therefore, this implication is very important. Because if it changes, Trump can fall from the throne. And not just fall, he could be impeached. He could be anything. No need to talk about >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> 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