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We dressed like a bomb. Right? >> What is this like? Let's go back, or let them legally cancel 2026. Let's move on to 2027. >> Will it pass like this, or will it calm down? >> It will pass like this until November. At the earliest, until November. What else will we see? I am very seriously worried. >> It seems like you will be a bit of a Mehmet Şimşek this time. >> Because of the pension. Yes. He >> Let's start. >> Okay. Monday to Friday, I'm on "Mesele Ekonomi" (The Economy Issue). >> I'm here Monday to Friday too. You're walking around with your belly button showing. Broadcast >> Amen. >> Hello Atilla Bey. >> Hello Sebih. Hello dear viewers. Welcome to our humble broadcast. >> We are glad to be here. Thank you. We are here with a bomb of a broadcast. As always. The agenda is very busy. >> Oh, oh, oh. Yes. I would like to thank our sponsor Midas and ask everyone to press the join button and the like button. And let's begin. Now, if you wish, let's move on to the economy. Let's quickly look at the economy headlines. You loved this very much. Individual >> I don't love it anymore, I still love it. >> You still love it. You were a big supporter. You said it a lot. You also invested a large part of your savings in private pensions. >> All of it >> The state contribution dropped from 30% to 20%. What do you say? Is it done for the budget, or will it reduce people's inclination towards private pensions? >> It will reduce it a bit, of course. More precisely, there is already a large segment in Turkey that doesn't believe in the benefits of private pensions. There is a fear that the state will put its hands on our money and start with pensions. This is a move to fuel that. 15 days ago, the presidency was authorized to adjust the state contribution rate from zero to whatever. Then they suddenly hit it. They are also doing this with withholding tax on deposits. So, it's forbidden for people to make money, sir. Then why should I invest my money in the financial system? I'll go and buy gold under my pillow. I won't be able to do that either, but that's another issue. It's a very, very wrong application. I definitely don't recommend it, my friend. Then they increased it to 30 first. >> Yes. >> Right? >> Right? >> Why are you doing this to the people? Everyone, even people who don't know economics, knows that trust and certainty are very important for the healthy functioning of economic activity. You are eliminating both of them. All the enemies of private pensions are surely mocking on social media right now. I still support private pensions. Especially with the 20% state incentive, it is thought that significant money will be made this year from money and government bonds and Eurobonds, which constitute the majority of private pensions in Turkey. >> Of course, private pension holders were also beaten a bit during the Nebati period due to bond yields. >> During the NAS period. >> Yes, during the NAS period. Now it's a second blow, but still, it's a long-term thing, private pensions shouldn't be evaluated in a few years. Retirement >> The system doesn't change anything, but it changes the perception, which is that the state cannot be trusted. Areas under state supervision, banks, private pensions, buses, you shouldn't enter them, sir. You have to fend for yourself. >> is thought >> a group thinks so, at least. >> Okay, about the gold issue, a certain limit was imposed for jewelers for cash. It was low, like before. It is said to be for bringing gold into the records. Is this a reflection question? >> It's the right decision. Because a significant amount of smuggled gold enters Turkey through various channels. This must be prevented. If this system is successful, perhaps gold quotas will also be lifted, and our jewelry exports will start to increase again. It is also a measure that protects the public. Because everything they buy is certified. That is, it will be stamped by the mint. Most importantly, you won't be able to evade taxes by buying gold. The state also controls it through IBAN. >> Everything is being recorded. That's a good thing. What will happen? >> Now I will defend Mehmet Şimşek again. Okay. What is being done is foolish. >> Which one exactly? Reducing the private pension contribution. Look, all economists in Turkey say that one of the most important prerequisites for solving Turkey's economic problems is the tender law. Making tenders transparent. Mehmet Şimşek cannot achieve this. He doesn't have such authority. >> What is he doing? In return, he gives credit rating scores to companies that will bid. He is trying to weed out the rotten apples in this way. >> Consumer imports are increasing very rapidly. We are always talking about this. The main reason for this is the low exchange rate policy and at the same time high interest rates, the wealth effect. Let me say this then. Say whatever you want. I won't do what you say. We say the program is working. At least it's working partially. We say the disinflation process, although slow, is continuing at the desired level. But of course, it has side effects. This is one of them. >> Yes. But >> How sustainable is this? Does it create a question mark in your mind about the sustainability of the program? It doesn't. We looked at the forecasts of other groups, not just our own group. The current account deficit will be 2.5% of national income this year. Yesterday, the Treasury sold 3.5 billion dollars in Eurobonds and had no difficulty. The people lined up at the door. We can finance such deficits very easily. The problem here is. For example, if food imports increase, I would be happy. It means our people can allocate money for food. But imports of goods demanded only by the very wealthy are increasing. There is some exchange rate effect here. I have no objection. But even if the exchange rate were 100 lira today, no rich person would buy a car manufactured in Turkey. This is a matter of habits. This has many side effects on income distribution in Turkey. One of them is the famous Veblen, the 19th-century American economist. Conspicuous consumption. That is, you can't even bring bread home. You're waiting at the market door to get the rotten ones, and the man arrives in his Jaguar. This shouldn't happen. >> How will you prevent this? >> Very simple. >> Taxes? >> You will tax the rich, sir. It's that simple. >> Come here. We went to look at a used car, sir. A 2006 or 2016 model Porsche Jeep. 16 million lira. That's more than I can earn in my lifetime. Semih, honestly. >> A lot of money was distributed during the NAS period, of course. >> Of course. >> Then also high interest >> During the NAS period, people forgot. >> Covid >> Credit Guarantee Fund >> How many people invested during Covid? >> Nobody invested. >> KGF. >> KGF. People accepted KGF as a gift from the state and invested in themselves. These need to be dealt with. I mean, since everything is recorded now, are you aware? Only gold was left, and that's recorded too, you know. Ask for an account of the difference between bank accounts and declared income. They do this for some people. This should be done automatically for everyone. This is a serious income distribution issue in Turkey. >> Many things would change, of course, if you did that in Turkey. >> Of course, it would change. >> Many things would change. >> It would change. >> That's why you can't do it. I'm not sure if they can't do it. It's a matter of choice. Mr. Erdoğan will have to accept at some point that if things continue like this, he will never win a competitive election. Abdülkadir Selvi wrote today that the election is not in 2026, but in 2027 or 28, for the economy to recover. The economy will not recover. It's impossible for it to recover under these conditions. I mean, Mehmet Şimşek and Fatih Karahan are implementers, not policymakers. They don't allow the most important things to be done, which are the policymakers. Therefore, you can do things ranked 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th in the order of priorities. >> We will talk. It will be an exciting year, as always. We've already started fast. >> As for the markets, let me say this. This year is the 35th year in 35 years. We always write at the beginning of the year what will happen this year. It has always been wrong. But I'm not alone here. Almost everyone's predictions are like this. This year, everyone is saying the markets will do very well. Global markets. I think caution is advised, and it's more likely that the opposite will happen. Something will explode somewhere. >> Let me ask the reason next time. Where will it explode? >> Let's give the clue here. >> I will ask you three places where there is a possibility of explosion. The highest probability is next Monday. >> Ok. >> Atilla Bey, shall we open a short Midas parenthesis? >> Let's. Let's introduce Midas's new service. Warrants are now also on the Midas platform. Warrants are options in a sense, but options that can be converted into long-term shares. Their pricing and return calculation are quite difficult. Midas has brought a great innovation in this regard. They have developed filters that will allow you to choose from hundreds of warrants and they work with very low commissions. Therefore, if you want to include warrants in your portfolio, and I say this very openly, if I were a professional investor myself, I wouldn't buy stocks at all. I would work with warrants, options, and forwards. There's no need. If you think so too, we ask you to visit Midas and click on the warrants section. >> For those who want more detailed information, it will be enough to click on the link in the explanations section, and I would like to thank them and continue. Your area of expertise, your favorite topics. Where is Trump heading? If we see Trump's actions as part of a strategy to maximize America's interests, he will liquidate all left-wing governments in Latin America. By establishing a large military base in Greenland and stationing a fleet there, he will control all sea lanes coming from the North Sea. Cuba will collapse on its own, and in the meantime, he will use the natural resources of countries that have been subjected to colonialism since the British examples of the 19th century, which we have forgotten, in favor of America. This is a very dangerous project. To the question of how much he can realize, I can give the following answer. First, there is an armed force in America that will not carry out these orders, first and foremost. Because they are constitutionally protected. Second, there are important figures in Congress from the MAGA base, which means "Make America Great Again" or "America First." For example, Marjorie Taylor Greene is a completely crazy woman. She will not run for parliament again, and she openly criticizes Trump. Steve Bannon, who is known as his mentor. Why? Because he came to power to save America from distant wars. More importantly, the work is not finished in America. America is experiencing a very strange inflation. That is, according to their own standards. Third, all these actions should actually be done with permission from Congress. Because the president does not have the authority to declare war on his own. But he is twisting something else into a pretext. The first chamber of Congress is not objecting to this pretext right now. Because it is in the hands of the Republicans. But if he loses the House of Representatives in the November elections, he won't be able to do any of this. >> What is Trump's goal? Is he doing it to strengthen the American economy? Or to strengthen his political dominance? What is the ultimate goal here? >> Well, here >> For example, the target of tariffs and customs duties was China. What is this essentially? This is also >> The target is China. Now, we have to accept that there is a deadly competition between China and America in the world. And we are only discussing the colonial ambitions side of America, but China has invested 60 billion dollars in Venezuela. It wants to develop military relations with the left-wing regimes in Latin America, beyond its commercial relations. In a sense, the Belt and Road Initiative is a scam to seize strategic areas that China needs. And this has exploded in Africa and Asia. Nobody wants to do business with China anymore. They are doing the same thing in Latin America. He wants to prevent this. That is, he will not allow the Chinese to approach that side in any way. Second, we have discussed this before. The world will not see another hot war. There are too many nuclear warheads. But there are two important elements of the Cold War. First, proxy wars, which we are slowly seeing. Second, seizing critical materials needed for new technologies. This is not just rare minerals. It could be copper, cobalt, nickel. There are said to be very large deposits in Venezuela. I don't know how true these are, because the government in Venezuela, during the Maduro period, did not openly provide information to people. Therefore, America should be freed from China in rare minerals, but in almost every aspect, in all supply chains. If necessary, let's build those supply chains through Latin America. Second, let's not allow China to infiltrate the Western Hemisphere in any way. From America's perspective, I have no objection to these goals. The way they are being done is very wrong. For example, Maduro was a bandit and a thief. I mean, forgive me if anyone curses me, but the person in charge of Colombia is not like that. You may like him or not, but he is a former guerrilla who is trying to do something for his country, whether successfully or unsuccessfully. There is no purpose in attacking him. After that, you took Dro and brought him. I have no objection to that either. But the visible picture is that you will give us oil, and with the money we give you, you will buy American goods. This is a very old colonial mentality that Britain applied in India and caused millions of people in India to suffer from starvation. These are extremely wrong. I think they will face serious backlash within America, but at least until next November. Not just there, but very tricky things will happen in Iran. >> We will talk about that. I want to ask one last question about Venezuela. Fatih Özatay beautifully described the collapse of Venezuela today. Its economic collapse. Why its economy weakened so much. Those who want to read can read it. At the end of the day, it is very difficult to defend Maduro. It is difficult to defend a person. It is also difficult to defend what Trump is doing. >> Absolutely. >> So, at the end of the day, what is your final opinion here? It happened for the best. It happened badly, but it happened. What do you say? >> Of course, it happened very badly, but I think Venezuelans will be happy with it. The exploitation of Venezuela means that the Venezuelan people will find jobs and reach a slightly higher income level. We are not similar to the India example here. Let me say this. At one time, Venezuela exported 2.7 million barrels of oil per day. This has fallen below 1 million barrels. Now Americans will come and invest. Okay, they will take the profit. I say nothing. In return, they will sell American goods. But this is not bad for the Venezuelan citizen. I will find employment there. The state's budget revenues will increase. Social aid will increase. Also, American goods will be cheaper. The collapse of Argentina and Venezuela. Argentina's collapse spread over a much longer period. Argentina was almost as rich as England at the beginning of the 20th century. It's so tragic that I can't defend Maduro. The method is more important than the substance. That's why I criticize it and am absolutely against it. Let's say we absolutely agree on everything and >> We started the year well. >> Let's say that and let's get a little closer. Yes. >> Geographically, let's start with Iran this time. Because it has an American connection and an Israeli connection. There is a water crisis there. There is an economic crisis. The story is generally the same. First, an economic crisis, then social despair, and then intervention. >> Will this process continue in Iran? >> Yes. Thank you very much, and congratulations on starting with your comments about Iran with the water crisis. Because if that water crisis hadn't happened, the economic crisis could have been partially compensated for. >> Is it that serious? >> The word "bankruptcy" is being used. It's finished. Even groundwater is gone. They are talking about moving Tehran to another location. Pezgeşan, and this cannot be compensated for by rain. In some places like our Konya, there are aquifers that have accumulated underground for millions of years. You can meet your water needs by digging wells. But we need to allow some of them to repair and replenish themselves. They have depleted all the water. Why did the real suddenly become 50% lower? Well, sir, there are two important inputs for every good and service. One is energy, and the second is water. You can't produce without water. That's why I don't think their economic problems will end if there are economic difficulties under this. Because you can't solve the water crisis. But there are other problems too. One is that in this recent Israeli-American joint operation, Iran's national pride was seriously wounded, and they realized that the stories they had been told for 20 years were lies. Frankly, people have lost hope that this regime will improve their lives in any future. And hopeless people are the most dangerous people in the world. I don't know if the regime will fall. A regime is very well organized internally and sticks together. >> Second. >> They don't hesitate to use force. Third, Netanyahu and Trump might make a mistake and attack. This will change the balance. The most dangerous scenario for us is the Syrianization of Iran. >> Syria is not Iraq. >> Iraq had problems. It was difficult to solve, it couldn't be solved, etc. Anyway, Syria became a bigger problem. Iran will be a bigger problem than all of these for the region, and our >> Absolutely. The reason why the post-Saddam period in Iraq was so painful is America's stupidity. In Syria, Elşara is acting a bit smarter. Whatever anyone says. But as you said, Iran will have a significant impact on the world oil market. Second, if the central authority in Iran disappears, there will be not only people closer to the West but also more hardline Shia radicals inside. They could bomb the Persian Gulf or Saudi Arabia. And worst of all, we haven't even gotten to Turkey yet. Wait. >> Let's talk about Syria, then we'll talk about Turkey, which is a fire pit. >> There are very serious developments in Syria. Conflicts have now erupted between the Esad regime and the SDF. >> We can call it a costumed rehearsal of a civil war. Notice that these are happening not in the Fırat east where the Kurds live, or in the region of the Tişrin Dam, but in the Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo. I think Elşara has understood that the Syrian Kurds will not integrate with the central government in any way and will use the Kurds in Aleppo as hostages. And probably, if he captures those neighborhoods, Şeyh Mahsut, and the second one, I can't remember the name, he will impose new conditions on the Syrian Kurds in Aleppo. But one thing is certain. In Turkey, unfortunately, especially within the left-wing opposition, the claim that Trump sold Syria to Israel, and that Elşara is Israel's man, is definitely not true. As seen, nobody likes the Kurds. In Syria, among the Arabs, a war has started using methods that I do not approve of to eliminate the dominance of the Kurds. One reason for this is, why did it suddenly explode now? An assassination attempt was made on Elşara. Feyim Taştekin can listen if he wants. He barely escaped. The perpetrators are probably not Kurds. They are more radical elements who condemn his shift from an Islamist line to a Westernist line. He has to satisfy them too, and part of that radicalism is to approve of secular Kurds in a way. >> Okay, we talked about Iran. America and Israel. Should we allow the liquidation of the Kurds? While Iran is on the agenda. >> Now, we are not talking about liquidation. >> weakening, neutralizing, reducing effectiveness. >> Well, there is only one problem that cannot be solved here, and that is >> the military structure of the Kurds >> entering the control of Elşara or whoever his boss is. Otherwise, the Iraqi Kurds have given authority to municipalities in their regions. >> But Atilla Bey, in that region, in that geography, will you surrender your weapons? >> No, no one is saying surrender your weapons. >> Yes. Of course, a big important weapon, what does he say? You can do whatever you want inside, but there should be only one army, aren't you saying that in Syria? >> One army, more precisely, Kurds. Yes. The National Army is under the control of the Chief of General Staff. For example, the Kurd says, but you will give me three divisions, two brigades. And the Syrian military will never enter my region. Then there's no country left. >> Second, even in the Kurdish region in northeastern Syria, Kurds are not the majority. According to anecdotal figures we have. So, what about the rights of the Arabs there? And the SDF is not such a democratic and peaceful organization either. >> How will Turkey be affected by this? >> Sir? It's our biggest curse. >> The farthest one. >> Yes. Western media, and conspiracy theorists on YouTube in Turkey, talk about Turkey hiding or melting large quantities of Venezuelan gold, measured in tons. These are claims. If there is any truth to these, Maduro will probably be an effective informant. [Laughter] >> By the way, let me say this. Let no one misunderstand. Yesterday, Ahlatçı Holding, the owner of the Turkish refinery, made a statement saying we have nothing to do with it. I agree with this. Western sources also don't mention Ahlatçı Holding or anything. But Western sources say that a significant amount of smuggled Venezuelan gold, which does not enter any records, is entering Turkey. If there is even the slightest truth to any of these, the prosecutor's office will present these to the court, and a second Halkbank case will arise. Will anything happen to Turkey? No, but we will have to do whatever Trump wants. That's the biggest danger. The second danger is migration from Iran. Actually, there are three dangers originating from Iran. One is the prolongation. If these issues are prolonged, both rich and poor Iranians will try to flee to Turkey. The rich will come and buy houses, and the demand for jobs will explode. >> Water is needed. >> Yes. And we are not talking about a small number. We are not talking about a small number. Iran's population is 90 million. Even 1% of that is 900,000 people. 2% is 1.8 million people. This is more than those coming from Russia and Ukraine. Second, Iran's trade. Our exports to Iran were not very large, but still, in an environment where exports are struggling to grow, the lives of business people in that region will be very difficult. Third, if we look at the recent past, the Arab Spring, or the current Generation Z uprisings and protests, if they start in one country, they have a chance to be imitated in other countries. >> Third. >> There are already six problems. >> Maduro, Venezuela, Iran, now Syria. Syria. >> I was very hopeful about Syria this year. Our trade was supposed to increase significantly. We had already secured 12 billion dollars in tenders. It's unclear where this will lead. In my opinion, the Kurds will surrender. Because they have no friends. Or strengthen the internal front. But Mr. Erdoğan, yesterday, Mr. Özer, again, made a call for peace, I guess. We are truly in a very difficult situation. In this environment, it no longer makes sense to sit and sue Mahsur Yavaş and others. That is, by establishing joint commissions in parliament and constantly providing information to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey will not be able to... I'm telling you what should happen. Otherwise, these will come to Turkey. >> It becomes inevitable. >> It becomes inevitable. Look, why did this ISIS incident happen? Three of our police brothers were martyred. Because ISIS fears that the Turkish Armed Forces will take over the fight against ISIS, which the Kurds are carrying out. And there is an MIT report. There is also a police report. There are around 9,000 ISIS members. We know their numbers, their locations, but we are doing nothing. God forbid, if we face a series of terrorist attacks like in the period of 2005-2016, Turkey's political and economic landscape will change. >> We hope. >> Can we profit from this? Yes. Excluding all of this, Iran and Syria. Yes. When these issues subside one way or another, we will be left in this region. By the way, there is a discussion about whether Israel is stronger than Turkey. Do you remember Varis Yonu Fakis? Let them watch the video he shot a month ago. They will see how much Israel fears Turkey and says it can do nothing. >> You can go to your sport today, you can meet your fitness. >> Yes. >> It slept so beautifully. There is. I'm going to work in the office. >> Yours. Of course. >> This is the difference. This is the class difference. >> No, sir. I have paid my debt to society. I have been working for 35 years. Monday to Friday, I'm on "Mesele Ekonomi". >> I'm here Monday to Friday too. You're broadcasting with your belly button showing. Ah man.