Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Saturday, November 15th brief, it is 11:30 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had a dump as expected, in the zone that I announced. I announced this zone. So the zone from 95132 to 95723. We went a little lower though. So logically, we should continue to go a bit lower given that we have a very, very key zone to aim for, which is located between 88400 dollars and 9291500 dollars. Logically, we should aim for this zone. It's the daily FVG that we have. We also have an FVG if I'm not mistaken on low time frames. And clearly, this is a zone that could bounce. So logically, we should aim for it. I doubt that we will bounce now given the data and so on. You will see that there are quite a few longs opening. The bounce we had is simply a bounce from the zone of the entire bullish movement. When we look and we draw a low point which was April 7th, 2025, to the high point which was October 6th, 2025, we clearly see that well, we are bouncing perfectly on the zone and logically, we should work it a bit more. We can easily aim for 89900 dollars, which would be 50% of this FVG. So technically, what I think is that clearly we are still bearish. As long as we don't validate at least a trend change on H4, there is no long to open. I prefer to enter later than too early, quite simply. So if I see a trend change here on H4, I will ask myself if it is interesting to open a long to then aim a bit higher. But for now, it is short that should be prioritized given that we really have nothing to bounce on, even if we hit the OTE zone.
Regarding economic news, next week we will be served. We will have the Fed minutes at 8 PM on Wednesday. We will also have the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index at 2:30 PM on Thursday, existing home sales on Thursday at 4 PM. And we will especially have the services PMI and manufacturing PMI at 3:45 PM on Friday. So same thing, it's likely to move a lot. But the most important day will be Wednesday.
Regarding results, we will still look at whether there are results for important companies next week. We will look at that right away. We have Nvidia on Wednesday, so after the market close. So be careful, we are likely to move a lot following this news. In my opinion, this is the most important news, even more important than the rest, because it is really Nvidia that is keeping the US markets up, and if it crashes, clearly the US markets will fall and Bitcoin, cryptos, etc., everything is likely to follow. So be very careful about that.
Regarding Crypto Bubble, what we see is that we have green on some altcoins that are really strong, notably ZC. ZC performs really well when Bitcoin bounces. Clearly, there are opportunities to be seized on it. I've been saying this for several weeks now on the FVGH4s etc. If I show you, for example, ZC, where is it? It's here. Basically, FVGH4s work quite well. We see for example that here, we had validated a trend change. We return to the FVG, boom, it takes off again. Same thing here. The entire rise was just FVGH4s working. We were in trend validation, not confirmed trend change, so it simply holds. So here, same thing, trend change. We return to the FVGH4, we could have entered here, stop below the low, and then it takes off. Same thing here. FVGH4, we enter below a key zone. So it wasn't necessarily this one given that here we also had an FVGH4. So it would have been this zone to be safer, and then it takes off to take liquidity. So same thing, ZC is clearly very interesting. Now, we'll see if this zone bounces given that on Bitcoin, we should fall a bit more.
Regarding funding open interest, what we see is that it is exclusively longs that are opening on Bitcoin. We see it. So we have an increase in open interest here with an increase in funding. This means that this entire rise is just longs opening. So clearly we are not safe from making a liquidity wick to then liquidate everyone and then go for all the long closures. Same thing we see here. We have a slight increase in open interest with an increase in funding. This means that here it is mainly longs that are opening and their stop losses are in there. So we have a little bit of shorting too. We see it just here, we have a slight increase in open interest with a decrease in funding. This means that here, a very small number of shorts have opened. So why not go for the liquidity that is just above, why not aim for 97500 and then fall back to aim for the key zone I told you about, which is 89000 dollars.
Regarding liquidations, what we see is that we have liquidity clusters to be taken up to 98000 dollars. So it could be interesting to make a real pump to then dump. But be careful because that would give a H4 trend change. Logically, if we aim for 98000 dollars, I'll take that again. If we lateralize and aim for 98000 dollars, that would give us something like this. So we could potentially validate a trend change and then we could go bullish again. So we will have to be careful of this trap. So it would have to be done quite quickly, perhaps on this wick, to then fall back.
Regarding liquidations, we have much more liquidations to the south than to the north. Clearly, if I put this, we clearly see that most liquidations are really to the south compared to what we have to the north. So we need to be careful about that. If I look at 3 days, same thing, there are more liquidations here in the short term. However, over 3 days, we have a lot of shorts that have entered, and so the bullish movement could be really significant, and that's why we shouldn't miss it. I think we are not safe from reaching 88000 dollars as I told you, to then liquidate up to 110000 dollars. And that would be really interesting to be able to enter and position ourselves on that.
Regarding what the whales are doing. This does not include MicroStrategy sales, they sold for 3.5 billion dollars in the last 24 hours. They continue to sell. So clearly, they want to protect themselves from a sudden liquidation that would occur if we go around 70000 dollars. I think the price has currently fallen to the liquidation price. They have added margin. But hey, you need to be careful about that. Whale data does not include MicroStrategy sales because they simply sell either OTC or they move on wallets and we don't know exactly what they do with it. So clearly, in my opinion, we could see sales from whales very soon, given that we are approaching key zones and we are not there yet.
We have also broken the H4 trendline, it's more daily but more visible on H4. So the trend we've had since August 5th, we've bounced on this zone each time, and currently we see that we tried to bounce just before to not break it. And we see that we break it and we retest it as well. So clearly, logically, we should potentially go back to the zone of 97500 to 98684, or simply go back to take the liquidity that was just here. We can very well retest 98158 dollars and then fall back. So what would be interesting is to do something where we aim for 98000 dollars and then we fall completely to take 89000 dollars, we give the market a last blow, and then we can potentially set a bottom in which we take all the liquidity to then be able to move down completely. This is called a dead cat bounce. And clearly, it's the dead cat bounce. When you throw a cat from the 50th floor, it will bounce before exploding. Well, it's a bit the same here, it's a crude image, but that's exactly the image this expression conveys, and we could very well have this kind of movement following this dump. But logically, the bull market on Bitcoin is over. We could potentially have a mini alt season if we reach new highs after reaching 89000 dollars. We could really aim for highs like 108000, 110000. But I seriously doubt that we will make a new ATH. Why not aim for 117000 dollars, but it would require a lot of buyers, and in my opinion, it's more in this zone. If I draw, for example, the OTE zone of the entire movement. So I can remove this one or I will extend it. But hey, if we aim for this zone, it would give us for example 112500 dollars, and then we would have a rejection to go much lower, notably 74000 dollars. We still have a daily Nob, daily FVG, H4 FVG. So clearly this zone, we front-ran it when we went to 74000 dollars because we didn't necessarily have selling pressure like we do today. And here, well, that's the case. So we could very well aim for this zone later, but first, we should aim for 90000 dollars.
On the other hand, if we validate, as I was saying, a bullish trend change on H4, well clearly it would potentially be the time to try a long since we know that most liquidations are to the upside, and so it would be a good time to position ourselves, in any case to try it with 1% risk, of course, not necessarily all in. And hey, if we aim for 90000 dollars, in any case, I think it would be worth it to position ourselves a bit in spot to buy to potentially get a +10, +15% quite easily. So hey, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. What do you think of the market? Do you think we will fall or bounce now? I'm interested. In any case, I wish you a good day. We'll meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.