Transcription
Still following the progress of negotiations to reach an agreement and establish initial peace between the United States and Iran. The issues that have not yet been agreed upon are the uranium enrichment program and allowing the IAEA to inspect Iran's nuclear infrastructure. However, regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Oman has confirmed that it will allow cargo ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via two routes, the northern and southern ones, without any toll fees. Marco Rubio has also confirmed that from now on, the Strait of Hormuz must be open for ships to pass freely, and no one has the right to collect transit fees, as this is an act that violates international law.
At the same time, direct peace negotiations must occur only between representatives of the United States and Iran. Foreign media continue to monitor the situation because the statements from both sides remain contradictory, especially on issues related to Iran's nuclear program. The key issue, the heart of the nuclear negotiations, is uranium enriched to 60%, which is close to the 90% grade required to produce a nuclear bomb. Rafael Grossi, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that Iran has not yet informed the IAEA of the remaining quantity of enriched uranium. However, the IAEA estimates that Iran likely had approximately 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% before Israel launched its attack in June of last year. If this were further enriched, it could produce up to 10 nuclear weapons. It is believed that Iran has a stockpile of over 200 kg of uranium in tunnels, particularly in the Isfahan region, where IAEA inspectors will travel to Iran soon.
However, Iran has not yet allowed the IAEA to monitor its nuclear program, which has been targeted during conflicts, especially in the latest round. This includes denying reports of contact with the IAEA Director-General in Switzerland. The United States has also not specified a precise timeframe for IAEA inspection teams to visit Iran's nuclear facilities but has indicated that inspectors will visit at an appropriate time. If Tehran continues to refuse, the United States is prepared to immediately cancel the negotiation process. If, during the 60-day ceasefire, both sides cannot reach a compromise on the details to finalize an agreement, especially on the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, the initial agreement could collapse and potentially lead to military confrontation or new, more severe sanctions.
Stephane Dujarric of the United Nations stated that the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN's maritime agency, is preparing a large-scale evacuation plan to assist approximately 11,000 crew members stranded on ships in the Persian Gulf to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz. These crew members have been stranded on ships adrift in the Persian Gulf since the war began on February 28th. This is considered a significant step in alleviating the humanitarian impact on the crew who have been suffering from the uncertain situation. This operation is a collaboration between Iran, Oman, the United States, and other littoral states in the Middle East.
The UN's move comes after the Iranian negotiation team, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, recently visited Oman to discuss the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Today, June 24th, the Omani authorities have taken this opportunity to coordinate with the IMO to temporarily open two shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, the northern and southern ones, allowing ships to enter and exit. They have also confirmed that no tolls will be collected to ensure ships can safely depart from the waters, despite security risks. Under this joint plan, these cargo ships will be divided into groups and must coordinate on a vessel-by-vessel basis. Officials will inform them of the times they can enter and exit and which route to use before they are escorted to a waiting area in international waters for further processing. Ships using the Omani side of the waterway must maintain constant communication with the coast guard to receive navigation details for safety.
Kpler, a maritime data analytics firm, reported that at least 36 cargo ships carrying food passed through the Strait of Hormuz on June 22nd local time. This is the highest number since the conflict began, accounting for nearly one-third of the normal traffic through the Strait. On average, before the war, about 120 ships could pass daily. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated during a meeting with officials of the Gulf Cooperation Council that Iran will not be allowed to extort transit fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz upon reaching a final agreement, as he views such actions as a violation of international law.
In another development, the U.S. Senate voted to support a bill limiting the President's war-making powers, aimed at ending attacks on Iran, with a vote of 50-48. Earlier in June, this bill was approved by the House of Representatives. This vote marks the first time a resolution limiting war-making powers has passed both chambers. Although considered a symbolic measure with little chance of actual enforcement due to the likelihood of a veto if Congress insists on enforcing it, it would require a two-thirds majority of all members of Congress, which is practically impossible as Republicans hold a majority in Congress. This vote reflects the growing pressure on the Washington administration amidst public dissatisfaction with waging war. A recent poll by Gallup and Royce found that only 24% of Americans believe this war is worth the cost.
Additionally, there are recent reports from Pakistan, acting as a mediator, that negotiations between the United States and Iran will resume next week, possibly around June 30th, to resolve the ongoing conflicting statements between the U.S. and Iran, particularly concerning the nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and the management of Iranian assets after the initial unfreezing of assets.
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