Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market. We will of course talk about BTC, Ether, the altcoins that are still correcting. We will take stock of altcoins that you asked to analyze. I noted Pump, NA and Sol. We will also follow up on certain altcoins that continue to perform well, especially ICP. Before I start, I remind you, you now have 3 days left to take advantage of the €200 offered on the "Become a Trader" program. And as I said, this is the last time you can benefit from the price of this program at such a low rate because there is a big update coming on January 1, 2026. I remind you that inside there are 15 modules, more than 30 hours of video so that you are 100% autonomous, whether it's on technical analysis, money management, psychology. You also have support and support that will be even more personalized from this January 1, 2026. So it is clearly the best program if you want to be autonomous. And given the market context, we are in a period where you need to train yourself because the future will be much more complicated. We are entering a phase, in my opinion, of transition and we will simply have to be ready. So there you go, if you have any questions, do not hesitate to contact me. Uh and if you want to activate your offer, it's by clicking on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here with BTC, which is still in this phase of sideways movement in the short term after the drop we had. We had a V-bottom rebound here, which are often destined to be retested. That's why we had a rather significant rebound. It's normal, rebounds are always proportional to the drop we had. If we have a strong drop, it's normal for the rebound to also be significant. We were talking about how we were in much more complicated zones when we come back to test our moving averages. It's completely normal. And for someone who follows the downward trend, which is what I told you here, yes, for swing trading, we are in an interesting zone to buy to play a rebound. But for someone who shorts the market and simply wants to follow the trend, these pullbacks in the 15-minute, 1-hour, perhaps 4-hour moving averages later will clearly be good opportunities. So we went to test the 15-minute tunnel, we rejected, we are retesting this V-bottom. We are in a zone where buyers must show themselves if they want to try to offer a reversal pattern here because if no buyers show up, the biggest probability here is a continuation of the drop. After, we saw it together, this level of uh here $98,000, it's a big level that won't break like that, I think, overnight. It will surely be worked on before breaking or before rebounding, but it wouldn't surprise me if we had a pause here on BTC. For now, we are clearly under selling pressure. We see it in the price action. And as long as we don't offer a bottom, as long as we don't reintegrate the 106 level, and as long as we don't go back above the short-term moving averages, the most probable thing is a continuation downwards.
Now, here's the thing, I've seen a lot of posts on Twitter, a lot of messages on Discord where people are starting to ask questions. Is it time to sell everything? Should we go all cash? Is this the end of the bull market, we're entering a bear market and we're going to suffer a -75% drop? We shouldn't necessarily go to these extremes. And the problem with these extremes is that when we are in a bullish phase, everyone says, "It's time, you have to be 100% crypto, don't have any cash, don't take profits because it will keep going up and up indefinitely until the day we hit a top," and most people are stuck because they are 100% crypto and don't have the necessary cash when we have a retracement. But when we have beginnings like this of degradation, and it's a fact, we have beginnings of signs of degradation, we shouldn't go to the other extreme and say, "Ah, I'll sell everything, I'll go all cash and panic sell," because people who sold on that wick we had, for example, on BTC and on other altcoins, or even on this drop here, that's panic selling. It means the drop was too significant and they got scared. They saw the amounts of losses were too high and automatically they said, "I'm selling because it's going to keep dropping," and we don't try to sell at support levels. Okay? When we come back to test levels like this, when we have a 30% or 40% drop on an altcoin, it's not the time to sell. If you, anyway, if there's panic selling, okay, there's a money management problem. Someone who panics is someone who sees too significant losses on their screen, who is not comfortable with that, and therefore says, "Okay, I'm getting out because mentally it's impossible to bear." And the problem here doesn't come from the market, it doesn't come from the drop, the problem comes from the position size that was simply determined. And to do money management work, because panic selling is not good, it means you simply had a risk that was too, too high. So I wouldn't be in the mindset of saying, "It's time to sell everything." Anyway, I've often talked about it, very few people talk about it, but having a cash-crypto balance here, so simply your allocation between your cash, so cash will be USDT, USDC, DAI, etc. In short, your stablecoins, it can be euros, dollars, whatever, but which are ready to be invested in crypto, and your cryptos. When we are in rising phases like we have here, the goal is to take profits on the way up. We secure, okay? And we transfer our cryptos into cash. When we have retracement phases like here, we can do the opposite, simply take some cash to put it back into crypto. When we have signs of degradation and we are at high levels like this, well, we can also take profits and have cash. However, we don't say, "It's time, I'm selling everything because if BTC bottoms here and goes to ATH, the biggest probability of what you're going to do? You're going to FOMO at the top because in the end you're 100% cash. You see the market leave without you, you're not exposed, and well, it's mentally tough. So that's why for me it's a balance to alternate between, one could say, between 0 and 100, of course, but I would say between 80-20 and 20-80, okay? Because even in a bear market like this, I still hold BTC and Ether. The difference is, instead of having a drawdown that will occur on 100% of my cryptos, it will occur on only 20% because I have, for example, 80% cash. Now, I always keep a minimum of exposure because I have strong convictions, for example, on BTC and Ether in the very long term, and because it doesn't suit me to be 100% unexposed, because you never know if the market will take off again.
We can re-expose ourselves very quickly, that's a fact, but for me, you shouldn't look for these extremes of 100%-0% or 0%-100%, but already being at 80-20, 80-70, 30-70 is already more professional. So there you go. In any case, here we are in a phase where yes, there are signs of degradation. Yes, I took profits and I have a lot of cash on the side which would allow me to reposition myself if we go back to much, much lower levels. Now, here's the thing, I'm in a phase where I'm waiting, as I showed you. I take trades if necessary in intraday, like I took here on BTC, I don't know where it is anymore. It's around here, or I don't know if it's on this chart. Yes, it's here, the trade I took. There you go, trend continuation. It's there. Downward trend continuation. So, for me, we are in a context where intraday trading is very interesting. There is volatility, we have a trend whether it's on BTC, Ether, or altcoins. We are in a short-term context, it's interesting. For the long term, for me, I am still, as I was here, rather in a phase where I am waiting. There you go, I'm waiting to have more interesting signals, to have confirmations. For me, here, it's too early to go long as long as we don't have a buy signal. Either we go back to much lower levels, 91 or even 72, and there I wouldn't specifically wait for buying reactions. I would position myself because we are still on much more significant retracements, and I can't place orders in "fishing net" mode at these levels because we are too high. However, placing "fishing net" orders at 70-75, "fishing net" orders means a lot of orders. Okay? You don't place a large order, you place many orders like that, and if we have a wick, if we have a significant dump, well, you can get executed. That was my case, for example, on BTC. In this phase, I had placed "fishing net" orders from around 78, even very low down to 60,000. Here, I was partially executed on Solana. I was also partially executed, and Ether, totally, hyper liquid, totally. There you go, because I estimated that in this phase of April, there was something to enter a position. So, however, "fishing net" orders are at very low levels, you don't put them at high levels, and on cryptos where you have strong convictions from a fundamental point of view and also on major weekly or even monthly support levels. That's how I operate. I take 3/4 cryptos. Here, when I did it, I took BTC, Solana, Hyperliquid. Currently, if I had to take some, I would take in order: BTC, Hyperliquid, and Ether. There you go, I then place divided orders like that. For example, I tell myself, "Okay, I want to enter, let's say, 10% of my capital," and I divide it into 15-20, okay? And I place 15-20 orders like that, quite close together at certain levels. I can do it several times. I can do it once here and a second time lower. And then I look for major weekly or even monthly support levels where the price has a probability of reacting, where there is liquidity, levels to reach. So, for example, if I had to give one on BTC, globally the level between $70,000 and $75,000. Everything above this level, these levels, I can position myself, but on the condition of having a buying reaction, on the condition of having something that shows me that buyers are there, because I estimate that we are still at levels that are too high.
So, on the Ether side, we continue to correct, we are retesting the V-bottom, Ether which has come back close to $3,000. We are retesting this V-bottom. If I take the example I had for Ether for these "fishing net" orders, I had placed them from 100 to 1000, 1500, 1400 or 1500, I don't remember exactly, around there in that zone. And there I was 100% executed. Why did I do that? Well, it's a major support level, we see it clearly, there is liquidity, and this whole zone, I know it's a demand zone. The goal is not to find the perfect bottom. The goal is to be in zones where, if we go there, we estimate that it's an interesting level in the long term. We are at generally low prices and we have convictions about the project in question. And there, on Ether, I had done that work. And now, if we go back to generally $2,000, that's also a zone I could do again. Here, we are still a bit too high, $3,000 is becoming an interesting level. However, not specifically "fishing net" orders, but rather, "Okay, if I have a buying reaction, if I have a pattern, something that shows me that buyers are present, well, I could reposition myself." Here, we are a bit in a dead zone. I'm not a fan of the zone we're in. Either we go back to $3,000, which is interesting. And if we don't go back to $3,000 and we have a pump from now on to become bullish again, we would have to go back above this level. So we have a phase here that is not very interesting. Not interesting in the medium to long term. In intraday, there can be setups. But in the medium to long term, the two intervention zones I will be watching are the two zones I just drew. $3,000 buying reaction, go long, or re-enter above $3,009. And I don't mind entering at $3,009. If I have a buy signal with a re-entry, well, I can enter here, have an invalidation below if we go back below this pivot, and the target is ATH. For now, we are a bit in a dead zone where I will focus much more on intraday trading for Ether. There you go, not much more to say about "fishing net" orders. Well, I did the same thing for Hyperliquid. The difference with Hyperliquid is that I did the very first thing in my life that I had never done, which was to position myself on such a young chart with completely bearish price action. Because I placed "fishing net" orders on Hyperliquid from 18 to 10. All of this because we were much more on fundamental reasons than technical ones. Especially since I clearly positioned myself on an M top. Okay, I advise everyone not to position themselves in this way. Generally, I wait to have 2 years of chart on a new asset. Hyperliquid is really the exception because from a fundamental point of view, something was happening. From a hype point of view, from a community point of view, it's true to say, something was happening, and I entered aggressively. Here, you see on Hyperliquid, I have "fishing net" orders between 25 and 28 because I estimate that these are low levels, okay, where I can position myself. I could put them much lower, we have to go lower because I have cash ready for Hype. It remains a project in which I have strong convictions. And at the 34-35 level, I can enter here, but not with "fishing net" orders, but with, "I have a buying reaction, I have something that shows me that buyers are present." In that case, yes, I could enter a position. Here on Hype, we are a bit in a sideways phase. There you go, blocked between two boundaries with a deviation upwards. It's a level that if we lose it, we will have a high chance of going back to $25.
I am monitoring ICP, even though I closed at 100%. It continues to go higher. Well, good for those who are in position, enjoy it. It's one of the only cryptos performing right now. We have another one. We'll see later. We have everything related to privacy and anonymity that is performing quite well too. But yes, ICP is pumping. I got out at 100%, no regrets. And you shouldn't start saying, "Oh yes, I took profit but it's still going up, I have to re-enter." No, you should say, "Okay, I respected my plan, my trade is over. There you go, if it has to go higher, well, it will go higher. Too bad, I can reposition myself if we have a retracement, I can do intraday trading because in the short term, the chart is generally good. We put moving averages, 15-minute pullback, we reject. 15-minute pullback, we reject again. And we see that after these 15-minute pullbacks, it's the 3-minute tunnel here that does the job. It also acts as support throughout this rise. So there you go, for now ICP is bullish, it's one of the only cryptos standing out. If we look here on this chart to see the altcoins that are performing the most, well, ICP is the best of the day, the best of the month, the best of the week. After, the month has just started, so it's a bit normal, but we see the decoupling between ICP and the others. So it's always good for those who want to look for longs to take the strongest crypto here and do trend continuation.
Now, if I take the altcoins you asked me to analyze, I have Pump. I'll try to take on... I'll take on... I don't know if I have enough history on this. Let's take on Mexi. Yes, Mexi is better. Okay. So, Pump, where are we? Knowing that already, it's a crypto that many people are talking about. We are coming back to test support levels. So already, it's much more interesting to position yourself here than when we were at such high levels. We have already had a good retracement in just a few days. In 2 months, we've had a -70% drop. And we're coming back, we're going back to test an area of interest. Why? Because here we have a small W pattern on daily, a small bullish pattern here as well on daily within a larger weekly structure. There you go, we see it clearly. If I switch to weekly, we see it clearly. Okay, we're coming back to test this demand zone. What are we doing? Small daily pattern. We could do another small daily pattern here to form a larger pattern here. It always depends on your way of positioning yourself. If you wait for the large pattern, well, the signal is given if we start to settle above this level. The downside is that we are still at relatively high levels, so it's quite complex, and the localization zone is no longer interesting because if I draw a Fibonacci from this rise to this drop, we are positioned around the 0.382, which is clearly not the best entry. So for me, an interesting signal would be to capture a small daily W to say, "Okay, we're doing roughly the same scheme as here to form a larger structure with possibly an invalidation below the low." We say, "Okay, well, if I enter here but my scenario doesn't validate, well, I get out and I take my loss because we don't want to hold a crypto that makes a lower low here and potentially enters a downtrend to go much, much lower." Especially since we are still on a chart that is still young. We are in a market context currently, I remind you, which is quite complicated. It's better not to take too much risk. So there you go, that's up to you to decide. After, we can also have the case where we have a deviation here, re-entry, and that can also be taken, but it's only taken when we have the re-entry. We don't anticipate at the moment of the breakout, saying, "Ah, it's certain, it will re-enter." No, that's not the right approach to have. It's a bit like what we had here, if I zoom out in H4, we have a sideways phase. Okay. Deviation, re-entry. You don't see it at the moment of re-entry, it's interesting, but at the moment of breakout, you don't say, "Ah, it's certain, it will re-enter." No, you can't anticipate that.
Analysis of NA. So, NA. Anyway, NA doesn't change, it's blocked between two boundaries, it's simply a range. Now, anticipating that NA has a good correlation between whether we are in a bull market for all cryptos or not, that we have a strong upward trend and that we have positive funding rates, strongly positive, we can expect Etena to perform. If, on the other hand, we enter a downward trend with negative funding rates, it will have more of a tendency to lag, as it is currently doing. Still in this sideways phase, we have come back to test roughly the middle of the range. Here we had our M top. We see a W structure with an inverted head and shoulders. Upward trend, we go back to test the upper extremity. M top, reversal structure. And here, we have just come back to test the neckline of this structure and we have offered a market top pattern. We go back to test the lower extremity. We are at interesting levels to enter a position. Now, we don't have a bullish signal. We clearly remain in a downward trend, with downward-oriented moving averages. What's missing is a buying reaction, a W structure, going back above the moving averages. You see how we did it here. Here, we have the perfect example. We have downward-oriented moving averages on 4 hours below the daily. If we go back, well, it's not if we go back, we have gone back above the moving averages. We validate the breakout of our trendlines. Here, there can be an interesting signal at the moment we break. And another signal is that we break this W structure, which is also better compressed with less volatility. I prefer these structures because we have more significant risks and we break. You see, these are rather good signals. For now, we don't have this signal, we don't have it. We go back to test this zone, we had it. If we have it again, it can clearly be a good zone to position yourself with, again, an invalidation either below the structure, or below the low. And the objective is to go back to either the middle of the range, or the opposite extremity. So we go back to test a support level, but it clearly lacks reaction.
If I take the last crypto you asked me about, Sol. So, the chart shows us a slight weakening. Well, already on Sol, we have been in a sideways phase for about 2 years. Not much has happened on Sol in the last two years. Now, we do have a good amplitude, about x2, but don't forget that Sol comes from $9-$10. Okay, it exploded in 2023. Very good. Now, here's the thing, it's not the crypto that will do x10. That's over. The biggest part has been done. There are still opportunities, but you will have to accept a +50% or a x2 maximum. For example, if I take my case on Sol, I had said that I had placed "fishing net" orders. I had placed "fishing net" orders from 120 to 80. I was about 60% executed. I took profits globally on a +70-80% gain when we came back to test the extremity, and that's enough. On Sol, you shouldn't aim for x5 or x10, it's not possible. +30%, +50%, +70%. Here, we are coming back to test the middle of the range. We had a re-entry here. We see this level served as support. We consolidated, we had reactions, but there was a much stronger selling pressure. We generally re-enter. When we re-enter like this, the objective is to go to the opposite extremity. So here, we are not in the best zone to position ourselves. If we go back to generally 120, it's a good zone if we have a buying reaction. So, that's generally what I would wait for here on Sol. There aren't 40,000 setups. And if we have to retrace, if we have to go back to much lower levels, we have the level here of 80. Anyway, if this zone interested me, it's not for nothing. Okay? It's that we were clearly at levels where I expected demand to be much higher than supply, which was the case here. To be seen if we go back there, how the market reacts if we lose this level and if we validate this large distribution phase, for that, we would really need to see consolidation below $95. We could experience a further retracement and go back to, for example, 50. It's possible if we enter a bear market. For now, it's not the number 1 scenario. So, on these altcoins that I shared with you, don't hesitate to tell me in the comments which ones you want me to analyze next. For those who want to take advantage of the last moments to join the program, well, it's now. I invite you to click on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening. I'll see you tomorrow for another video.