Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review with cryptos that continue to fall. We are confirming, in my opinion, market tops. We will come back to this today. We will follow up on some positions that have been shared recently. We had ICP. We will simply follow up. I took a trade today on a very, very short term that I will also share with you on BTC, and we will analyze some altcoins that you are asking to analyze. I remind you now, you only have 5 days left to take advantage of the €200 offered on the "Become a Trader" program, and especially before the big price increase that is coming at the beginning of January, given the evolution of the program which will be even more intense, more personalized, and with even more in-depth support. Already, you have access to 15 modules, 30 hours of video with private message follow-up, as well as personalized coaching. This is what the program currently offers. But in a few months, it will move, let's say, into another dimension with even more personalized follow-up, better support, the addition of certain modules, and I remind you, you take no risk by joining because I know the results will be there. I guarantee all the people who join this program that in the end, they will be autonomous, they will have the ability to trade the market, to make very good analyses, and to make good decisions. That's why I have a guarantee like this, which is not a scam or anything, it's simply a guarantee because I know it works. I see it with the testimonials, I see it with the people with whom I have been able to interact throughout their program evolution and even afterwards. And I know that all the people who join this program are at the end autonomous and have the ability to be clearly better than what they were before. Which is normal, it's a program, we go straight to the point. There is theory, there is a lot of practice, and above all, I support you, you have a problem, I answer it, and those who have already sent me a message on Discord know it. Within 24 hours, you have a response, and generally, you get it within a few hours after your message. So, this is what I promise you, and especially with the evolution of the program that will arrive on January 1st, we will go even further. I remind you, you have €200 offered, and as I said, you have until Sunday evening. So you only have 5 days left. For those who are interested, I invite you to click on the first link in the description.
So, I'm starting here with BTC, which is breaking and which, given the daily closing we're going to do, will break this level of $107,000. We are coming out of this sideways phase downwards. So here, a market top is forming. We are not far from validating the long-term reversal of our dynamic if we start to go below $98,000. But given the trend here, we have strong probabilities of getting there. Will we have a liquidity grab, a re-entry, or a big breakout? That's hard to predict, but in any case, for now, a market top is forming. And I hope you are prepared, clearly, both psychologically and especially in terms of money management, in terms of managing your capital, managing your cash and crypto balance, and that you have a plan for what's next, because if we start to enter a real bear market, the next 6 months, the next 12 months will not be incredible. And this is where you need to have the skills, the knowledge, you need to know what to do. There will still be a video every day, I will continue to support you. But yes, we have signs that are not great on BTC, Ether, and quite a few altcoins. Since we are simply coming out of this sideways phase, we are losing the daily tunnel, given the closing. We are losing it now. So, we have signs of reversal. Honestly, I think the phase of BTC dropping 80% is over, especially since we see that the upward phases are clearly different compared to the last cycle it experienced. It was just a big pump. Okay. Then followed by a big dump. I think the market is much more mature here, and we see it clearly, there are pump phases but they are followed by sideways phases. Pump, sideways, which is a much healthier rise and which is closer to assets with much more volume, liquidity, like for example indices like the S&P 500 which very rarely go up in a straight line. So, in the long term, if we look monthly or quarterly, yes, these are assets that go up in a straight line, but we see that the arrival of ETFs has changed the price action of BTC a bit. So I don't think BTC will crash and experience a -80% drop like it did quite quickly in its recent cycles. It's normal, we've built up levels, support levels. So when we revisit these levels, automatically they will act as support. Now, I told you, my cash is ready. Okay? I've also reduced some positions. Today, I've reinforced my cash balance because I'm seeing signs of degradation even on altcoins that I'll show you just after, like Tao for example. Even though there are encouraging signals. The market has evolved well. I prefer to recover some cash because, in case of a retracement, I will have the possibility to enter positions. And that's how we adapt to the markets. When there were bottom phases here, I was the first to tell you, and I was the first to tell you. I'm entering positions, I expect BTC to retrace, and well, I was able to do what was necessary. When there were anomalies like here on Ether at $1500, well, I did my job. For me, I'm at a level where I had already reduced my exposure just before. Everything is transparent on the channel, you can watch all the previous videos. There were times I was bullish and I cut losses. There were times I was bullish, and I profited well. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. What is certain is that in the long term for BTC, the $100,000 and $120,000 levels are levels where I clearly said I take profits. There. And now, I estimate that the market is potentially reversing. In addition, here, markets that are potentially making a market top, while US indices are yes correcting but are globally at ATH. This shows us that cryptos are relatively weak. So, as I said, draw your support levels. Now, if I have to talk about some interesting levels to watch, $98,000, $91,000, $92,000, globally this zone, and then the zone of $72,000, $73,000, this intervention zone. If we have to go lower, the $52,000 level will also be a good level, and if I really have to, if we repeat the different bear markets, and then you tell me Nico, if we really fall sharply, what is the zone where we could bottom out or where you estimate we cannot go lower? If I have a good correlation here, I draw a Fibonacci. I have my reload zone between 0.18 and 0.786. Historically, the last drop we had was -77%. Here, it was -84%, something like that. 84%. So, we see that the drops are less significant. If I take this peak to the drop, here we are at -60%. If we push to -70%, and in addition, I have the production cost of BTC which is around this zone, the floor price. So, for me, BTC will not go below $50,000, $45,000. Really, if we have a big bear market like we've had in recent years, this is a golden zone. Frankly, if we go there, it's a zone where I would enter with a very good exposure on BTC, on the different opportunities I would have elsewhere. We are not there yet. I'm not saying we will go there. Maybe we will, but it will take time. I'm just talking here in case of an extreme crisis, in case of a real dump, no one expects it, or I don't know, but I always prefer to prepare for the worst. This is a zone I've talked about for a long time, and even some people told me "Yes, no, we can't go back there," and I hope we won't, but if we do, I'll know what to do. And while most people will be panicking, like what we had here, no, I remember very well, as if it were yesterday, at the time of the FTX crash, low volatility for 2 months, everyone said it was the end for BTC, that it would plunge, and well, in the end, we turned around. BTC, an asset that in the long term will always be bullish in my opinion. Much less volatility, for sure, over time, and less significant upside. Okay? If we take each bottom, each top, we have a reduction in performance. It's normal, we are on an asset that is more mature, but BTC will reach $200 million in 10, 15, 20 years, I don't know. But for me, in any case, I remain bullish on this, and all the big dips will be opportunities. Now, yes, in the short term, there are degradations, we are losing levels. As long as we don't have a re-entry. If we wake up at the end of the day and have something like this, okay, it can be bullish, a deviation, a re-entry. For now, we are not there. And be careful, we are in a context where we can change our bias very quickly. So I can say in a video, okay, currently it's bearish, that's what I observe with my own eyes. I took a short, I'll show it to you just after. However, if I have a re-entry with a very strong buying reaction, I can turn bullish again. Okay? The goal is to adapt to what the market shows me. But currently, we have moving averages pointing downwards. Okay? And here, we are rather in a context where personally I will take shorts. And I took a short today. Why? Because we had come back to test the VWAP. Well, that's something I won't go into detail about. I will mainly go back to my chart where I took my trade. But globally, I had a good confluence between this 3-minute tunnel and this daily pivot point that we re-entered. Understand that when there is a very strong drop, regardless of the asset, generally the 3-minute tunnel is very interesting. It's something I look at when I try to do a bit of scalping and intraday trading. Positions, generally, I will keep them for 1 hour, 2 hours maximum. Sometimes some can last a bit longer, but when there are very strong drops with strong selling momentum, often the 3-minute tunnel, the blue tunnel, very often acts as resistance. We see it clearly on BNB at this level, we see it perfectly on XRP, we see it on Dogecoin. Ether is not the best example, but globally it's not a miracle indicator, but it's an indicator I like. The 3000 I use it very rarely, except when there are very strong drops or very strong rises like this. It goes in both directions to continue the trend. So we came back to test this tunnel. We had a small liquidity grab on this previous high. I was always expecting a continuation in this kind of case. I'm looking for continuation. So I don't position myself just anywhere. I generally waited for a selling signal. I had my little pattern, my little M-top, re-entry of the daily pivot point. I entered here, entered at the close, stop loss above the previous high, I targeted globally the lowest point. There. Now, yes, I could have gone for much lower levels, of course, but well, it's always easier. After, I wanted to secure, not aim for a TP that was too extreme, and globally, I was targeting the liquidity below this low that was reached at this level. So, this is a trade I held from 1:10 PM to 2:20 PM. So, 1 hour, generally, these are not very long trades. We are not specifically into scalping where I will keep the position for 5 minutes, but we are globally into intraday trading. So, for now, it's rather bearish, we see it clearly, we have moving averages pointing downwards. Sometimes I use other indicators as I showed you before, we are trading below the VWAP. So, we are rather in a context here where we remain under selling pressure as long as we don't manage to get back above this white line. And for now, yes, the market is selling. So, for those who do very short-term, short, yes, short-term, all pullbacks are opportunities to look for shorts to continue the trend, especially when we have moving averages pointing downwards, it allows us to locate our entries well. This is a setup that I share in the "Become a Trader" program. There is a magnificent trend continuation setup in module 11. Vegas, I teach you to trade this kind of setup, which, when we have it like this, I told you, I told you, it was around this level, I told you we are in a range, I'm not really a range trader, I sometimes take trades but it's quite rare. I prefer to position myself when there is a trend, and here we are entering a trend. Now yes, it's bullish, it's bearish, but there are opportunities to take. And if BTC goes from $103,000 to $60,000, I will follow this downward trend and I will look for shorts when I have pullbacks, because we are entering a context that I like to trade. So, that's it for now, for those who do short-term trading, all pullbacks are opportunities to take shorts. Of course, we still have an invalidation, good risk management, because nothing prevents a buying reaction with a re-entry to go for the opposite extremity. But as long as we don't have a re-entry and we reclaim the levels, we would need to get back above $106,000 to really have a signal that tells us okay, we might have a deviation and it's bullish for the future. For now, it's not great, and I'm rather cautious for the future. So, on that side for BTC, on the psychological side, be careful, some people may have difficulty managing this kind of drop. Don't hesitate to come on Discord to discuss. There are competent people, people who have already lived through cycles, who have already experienced this kind of phase. Discuss with them. Ask me questions too. You can tag me on Discord. You join the Discord in the description by clicking on the link. You arrive on a Discord with a very good community, 2000 people, and you can tag me. You can send me a message, you can tell me "Hey Nico, I'm having trouble with the drop, what do you advise me?" I won't tell you you should buy or sell, that's not my goal, but in any case, I will give you a very personalized answer so that you get through it as best as possible. So, this is what I offer you in any case for those who are starting and are having trouble with this kind of drop. We've all been through it. If you're a beginner, this is also how you learn, and it's not possible for a market to go up indefinitely.
Now, regarding Ether, well, we are validating this re-entry. My objective is directly $3,000. I also saw a tweet online that was quite interesting, which measured the size of this deviation. Here, we have a downward deviation, here an upward deviation, which measured, well, not the size, but the date range here between 63 days and the break and re-entry. He took his re-entry here, but it was about 63 days. So, we see that the deviation we made here lasted as long as the deviation we made at this level, about 2 months. Then, we have a deviation, re-entry here. Deviation, re-entry after a liquidity grab on Ether at the ATH level. At the time we made the ATH, I talked about it, I told you these are the signals we don't like to see, generally when we have an ATH, we like to have a big breakout and not this kind of liquidity grab. Well, I have cash on Ether to enter. So, we'll go lower, cash that I had reduced on the rise. I have also reduced again around 30060 something like that because I have signs that I don't like to see either. We are re-entering on Ether. My objective is clearly $3,000, and if $3,000 doesn't hold, it's globally $2,200. Then after, it's the same, on the internet, they put moving averages and we observe, we see that we have moving averages pointing downwards. We are rather in a context here where we will continue the trend. Now, always with good risk management. But yes, Ether is not great. And if we enter a bear market, Ether has not experienced a bull market. Ether, we just had a rebound, we came back to the upper extremity. Now yes, between the lowest point and the highest point, there is performance, there is something to do there, I agree, but it has clearly not experienced a bull market. So, to be seen. We'll see how it evolves. After, given the amplitude of the range, there is potential for performance, clearly, but perhaps Ether is in a phase that is different from other phases. It has always experienced a peak followed by an explosion. Perhaps not this cycle, and perhaps for the first time this cycle will be different.
H, I'm following up on two things. On one hand, ICP, which I shared with you when we had a pump. I told you at this level that ICP was very interesting in what it was doing, that there was a trade that could be taken at the time of this liquidity grab, re-entry at the time of this big pump. As it turned out, ICP hit a phase, it's the only one that pumped, except, well, it's the only one that pumped compared to all other altcoins. So I told myself it's a strong altcoin, I'll try it. Now, this is a small risk, it's 0.5% of my capital. And I'm taking this on spot trading because we are between my entry and my stop loss, 16%. So, I'm not using leverage on this, but 0.5% is a small trade that has been taken. I shared this with you, we were here. You can't tell me "Yes, Nico, you take your trade and then you show us when it explodes." No, look, it was November 1st, I told you, and ICP, well, there's a good impulse and there's a good trade that can be taken to reach the opposite extremity. Now, I took a big partial TP. It was not here, I took it around 5, 5.1, something like that, around these peaks. I don't have the trade in front of me. I took a partial TP. So, it went higher, and I'm keeping another TP, but I generally have a trailing stop that follows this upward trend, which is here. Why did I take a big partial TP? Because, well, we have ICP pumping, but given the market context with BTC, Ether, and everything that's happening, I prefer to be cautious. The goal is still to secure, especially a good trade like this, which I didn't expect to take, but well, this is trading. I don't specifically have a strategy that tells me to take this type of trade when all the conditions are met. It's more discretionary trading where, with experience, I can afford to take this kind of trade because I estimate that the probabilities associated with the risk management I have are in my favor. And when it's in my favor, well, it would be a shame not to take the trade. It's like if you were told you're playing heads or tails, okay? But when you win, you win 200. However, when you lose, you lose 100. Are you right to play? Well, yes, because you have a 50% chance of winning. Except that when you win, you win 200. When you lose, you win 100. So, regardless of the final outcome, even if you lose, the decision to play is good because you win more than you lose, and you have a one in two chance. So, this is what I want to make you understand with this kind of trade that I took. So, well, we'll see what happens. We'll follow up. But don't expect ICP to do another x3, it's not possible. It didn't do an x3 at all, it still did +60% in a few days, which is not bad. But yes, I think it will stop there. I think, unless we have cryptos that recover. This is an exit pump or a last pump before a continuation, in any case, that's how I see it from my side. So, that's it for ICP. I also wanted to share Tao. I have exited, I have significantly reduced my exposure. I've only kept crumbs because there was a bullish signal. That's a fact. But with this upper wick and this re-entry that it made, I exited there, and the market context. I preferred to exit. Tao, from a fundamental point of view, the community behind it, it's a project with potential, but it's not my best investment either. I entered Tao around 250. I took a first big partial TP in this zone. I don't remember where it is, but it must have been around 500, 600 dollars, approximately. I didn't buy back here, and I strongly exited here. You see, it's not the trade of the century either. I must be at a +80%. With this performance, globally, I'm at an x2 on average. And an x2, but in how much time? About 1 year. Well, it remains a good investment compared to altcoins that have literally collapsed, and some people who have done -60%, -70% on them, but I prefer to exit Tao, okay? Given this re-entry that we are making, we are here on a liquidity grab, re-entry, the logical objective is to reach the opposite extremity. And if we enter a bear market or at least a deeper correction, I think Tao can revisit much lower levels. So, I am wary. You see, I'm recovering cash with good positions that I took at the time, but I'm in a phase where I'm not very calm, okay? And I prefer cash in case we go lower. I still have Ether, I still have Hype, I still have BTC, but altcoins for now, if I can divest from them, if I can reduce my risk, if I can consolidate, I do it. Now, if I get a bullish signal, we recover, and everything, I don't mind re-entering slightly higher. If I have a bullish signal with a tighter invalidation, there's no problem with that.
Now, I was asked a question, and I will answer it because it's very interesting. I was asked "Yes, Nico, if we enter a bear market, knowing that we have altcoins that are at very, very low levels, for example, well, we can take ICP as an example, or even LTC, you see, which haven't experienced a bull market, Jupe, you see, that kind of crypto." If we enter a bear market, but what will happen to altcoins knowing they are already in a bear market? Well, they will experience, let's say, a bear market within a bear market. And what does that remind me of in terms of crypto? It reminds me of the cryptos from 2017, quite simply. You see, the cryptos from 2017, meaning we are entering a phase where, potentially, you see, this is a crypto that has experienced three cycles, 2017, 2024, roughly, 2025, globally the rise of BTC, but what is it doing? Lower and lower highs. For me, altcoins that were born here, well, they experienced this cycle, then this cycle, this cycle, making a lower low, and the next cycle will be here. An altcoin that has only experienced one cycle, well, it will look like this. For me, we just have to look at the altcoins from 2017, okay, to realize that if we enter a bear market, it will be like this. And there are altcoins that will never recover. It will be like, I'm not saying all altcoins will be like this. There are always altcoins that will stand out. And be careful with those who say "I'm holding altcoins because it's 100% sure they will make a new ATH." I remind you, I don't have the statistic anymore, I'd have to look it up for 2021 compared to 2025. So this cycle compared to that one, but in any case, this one compared to that one, there were only 25 cryptos from the top 100 in 2017 that made a new ATH in 2021. If we take the top 100 that existed at the peak, and we say, okay, among the 100 cryptos that were there, which ones made a new ATH? And EOS, I think it was in the top 100, didn't make a new ATH. Bitcoin Cash didn't make a new ATH. Iota didn't make a new ATH. Among them were ADA, BTC, XRP, I don't even know if it made a new ATH exactly in 2021 or if it was close. Hop, not even, no, XRP didn't make a new ATH. So there was BTC and Dodge, there was ADA, that kind of crypto. It's been around for a while. So, to make a new ATH, but there were only about 20-25, which is very few. 20-25% is not a lot. So, tell yourself the same thing for this cycle that we've had. All the altcoins that exploded, for example, from Ing here, from well, assume that potentially this altcoin will not make a new ATH again. Now, we made a new one here. But maybe it will do something like this. Maybe not now, but we will enter a downward trend, set a bottom. Here, maybe 2017, this is purely theoretical, but it's to explain to you. BTC sets a bottom, BTC experiences a bull market, Ing experiences a bull market, but not as strong, and it does something like this. It's possible. In any case, be careful with those who say "I'm holding altcoins until death." So, this is what I want to make you understand. Some people operate on the principle that all altcoins will be there in 10, 15, 20 years. I remind you, BTC outperforms 98% of altcoins. That's a fact. Okay? You just have to look, if I look at BTC USD divided by Total 3. I don't know if I can do that. I don't know if I can do that. Hmm, no, I didn't want to look at it like that. Hmm, wait. Hmm, no, I wanted to look at it like this. There. It's simpler. This allows us to compare the performance of Total 3. So, simply, all altcoins excluding BTC and Ether, against BTC. We see that for 2-3 years, BTC has outperformed all altcoins. Okay? And if we take even more specific altcoins, like Near, many cryptos, we can give an example. For example, I do Near BTC, it works like this. There. No, I can't go further. We don't go further. We do CryptoNear USD divided by Crypto 2. BTC USD. Here, I'm sure it works. There. Hop. And well, we see that Near has outperformed BTC during this cycle. But here, there's been nothing. There's been nothing. And the worst is to take altcoins like, for example, LTC, to realize that this kind of crypto has always been in a bear market against BTC. There have been rebound phases, yes, it's true. But the long-term trend is bearish, and the majority of altcoins have this chart against BTC. I can take, I can take others, even more well-known altcoins. What can we take? We can take AVAX. There, for example, AVAX is a well-known one, many in portfolios. There, it's underperforming BTC. In any case, not in 2021, but in the last cycle, it's underperforming. We can take other cryptos, EGLD, a well-known crypto, which many people like. It's ugly. Okay? Yes, there are cryptos that stand out. There are cryptos. I like. Now, Hype doesn't exist with this symbol. Well, we'll do it differently. We'll do Hype against BTCDT. There. Hype outperforms BTC. Hype has achieved better performance against BTC. And your goal when you invest in altcoins is to achieve better performance than BTC, unless you are staking, looking for airdrops, or anything like that, of course, but if I'm talking about pure altcoin performance, your goal when you invest in an altcoin is to achieve better performance, and in the last cycle, there weren't many. BNB had good performance, there, it easily reached x5, x6. So it was a good investment. Solana was not bad. ADA, it's not worth having ADA compared to BTC. Tron is the same, AVAX is the same, Dodge again, it was good, but you see, there are very few. So, I'm just preparing you for what's next. I don't know what's next. I don't know if we're entering a bear market or not. For my part, I'm preparing for it. That is to say, I have my cash, I know what to do. I know that in the next 6 months, 10 months, my investment portfolio will potentially not perform very well. But it's in this kind of phase that you need to prepare, because it's thanks to this kind of phase that I can multiply my portfolio. If I don't have a retracement, I can perform, but I will never perform as much as when I positioned myself here at the bottom and rode this entire trend. However, in the short term, in intraday trading, I will still achieve performance. That's why it's good to have two wallets, one for trading and one for investment. Because when you enter a downward trend and you go into a bear market for a year, well, that's when being able to take these kinds of trades is quite good. It simply allows you to continue the trend and stay active. So, I've said what I wanted to say. The altcoins I planned to analyze, since I've talked a lot, we'll do them tomorrow. I remind you for those who want to learn, that I share my setups, that I support you, that I train you, and even this program for investment can help you. Why? Because inside, there are investment setups on how to position yourself, and that is clearly useful if we enter a bear market so that you know when you can enter positions. So, everything is here inside. I remind you, you have €200 offered on the program by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.