Transcription
Hello, this is Gryptolie. I hope you are doing well. With all this green, I think you are doing much better than Friday evening. So yes, there are certain cryptos that are recovering a large part, not to say the entirety, or even exceeding it. This is the case for Tao, this is the case for BNB, this is the case for a few other cryptos, and we have a market that is indeed rather green. Even the market that is not yet open, NASDAQ S&P 500 looks rather cheerful and is heading for green, mainly thanks to the various discussions we have about Trump regarding Xi Jinping and China, his position regarding China, and you will see that it is still very paradoxical at the same time. We have the threat at the same time and at the same time a desire to reassure traditional markets by saying "Don't worry, it will go well," but what will be the impact on cryptos and what will be our impact regarding the market's impact? Because the market itself, S&P 500 macroeconomic, risks moving strongly, very strongly upon reopening. We will talk about this precisely in this video. Before going further, by the way, I remind you that in the comments and description, you have the possibility to join my Telegram where you have a lot of free content. You have many guides, whether on DeFi, on trading, on investing, you really have a lot of content, and moreover, I post regularly on it. If you are interested, it's in the comments and description, and it's free as usual. In the meantime, we have new news. We start with crypto news with the White House which is really working on a pardon for CZ to remove his charges. Charges for which he had pleaded guilty, which had led to 4 months in prison, and this means he could return to Binance, to the management of Binance. It is worth noting that he is the largest holder of BNB, the largest holder of Binance shares, and it would be quite logical if it were to happen. And this means that we would certainly have a BNB that would react very positively to CZ's return to Binance, and I think Binance would also see a new dawn with CZ's return, even if we know he still has a lot of influence on it, let's not kid ourselves. I think he is still very active on Binance, even if it is not official, and in any case, we will see when we have the information, but it is something to remember. In other news, we have the DPEG of USDE, the crypto from Ethena. Of course, there have been many questions. Was it a DPEG due to a default from Ethena and the Ethena Token and the architecture of USD, or was it a default from Binance? And it turned out that it was indeed a default from Binance, to such an extent that they decided to issue $283 million in compensation for all those who were impacted by the DPEG or by the non-respect of stop losses. And this is information I am giving to everyone. Think about it, if your stop loss was not respected, or at least not at the price that was set, go and open a ticket to try to get some form of compensation. There are many. Cross exchanges provide compensation when this is the case.
Now, there is bad news, very big bad news, he is back. Yes, the one who shorted before the BTC crash, which made several million dollars, $150 million, is now opening a new short, this time for $160 million, so still less than the first one. But in any case, there is a return of shorting on the opening of the American market. And this seems quite logical when you understand the structure when there is a purge. We will see this a bit later in the video, but in any case, what is certain is that there is a momentum that is rather bearish that we are seeing on this side, which allows the price to rise. Yes, it's true, we've had a lot of short squeezes. Don't worry, I'll show you in a few moments. But first, someone said we are back. It's Jim Cramer. Well, maybe that doesn't mean anything to you, but every time he says we are back and everything will be fine, well, generally it doesn't go well. For those who don't get the joke, he is generally one of the stock and crypto trading commentators who generally calls the shots. He's a bit like the weather man for stocks. Except that every time he makes a prediction, the opposite happens. So, of course, it has become a joke. And now we see that he is back, so naturally, everyone is worried about it. But you don't need Jim Cramer to worry. Just Trump himself, who is explaining that everything will be fine and that the negotiations with China will go well. On the side, he still explains and always explains that "Don't worry about China, I have a lot of respect and everything will be fine." And then, "Don't worry, the tariffs are still planned for November 1st, but everything will be fine." Understand the discussion here, it's about trying to absolutely reassure traditional markets before the negotiations on China. Indeed, November 1st is not tomorrow, there is still some time, but we must add to that the fact that we are still in a shutdown, we have just passed 10 days of shutdown in the USA. This implies that there is still no return of the federal government. There is still technical unemployment for 95% of employees, and the federal government is still at a standstill. I think it will remain so in the coming days. Perhaps by the end of the week, we should have a resolution, and I hope it won't last too long. The impact on the figures is still very significant, but for now, we don't really care. Clearly, the Nasdaq on pre-market trading here on futures is starting to rise again, which is rather positive. However, we should not rely on this. We really need to wait for the opening of the American market, and mainly around 4 or 5 PM, to see the market flow and see if we are still really in an acceleration phase or if we are potentially retracing this candle to go lower. And this will certainly have an impact on cryptos, it will have an impact on many people. And what will also be interesting to see is the VIX. The VIX, which is the volatility index, which shows whether actors are hedged or not. When we see it returning to around 21, which is a very important indicator for me of the VIX, if we break 21, it means that investors are potentially pricing in a drop, which will not necessarily be a good sign. If, conversely, we have a bearish breath, it means that the heat is over and we will resume an upward trend if, and only if, behind that, we have a resolution to the shutdown that doesn't happen in 2 months. Obviously, we are supposed to have a speech from Jerome Powell on October 14th. Very important, still and always. Here, I think there will be a discussion, there might be information that comes out, but the most important thing is the figures, and the figures are postponed due to the shutdown. Do you understand how much this impacts the pricing of what might happen next? We are supposed to have the core CPI on October 15th, which risks being postponed, meaning inflation. Then, on Friday, we will have the September unemployment rate, which will certainly be postponed as well. All PMIs will be postponed. Globally, we risk not having any news if we are still in a shutdown. And clearly, the market is waiting for this news to price in the number of rate cuts from Jerome Powell for October and also for December, globally for the end of the year. Something that will greatly affect the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, much more than a threat from Trump about an economic war with China. We can assume there won't be an economic war, but in any case, we risk having a backlash at some point, a moment of pressure, and this pressure will also be felt on the Nasdaq.
In the meantime, we have a BTC that is pushing, pushing quite strongly, and there is a reflection to be had. A reflection that is quite difficult to choose which chart you will use. Because depending on the chart you use, whether it's perpetual or spot, you won't have the same price structure, not at all the same wick. Here, for example, I am on the Coinbase spot. Coinbase, which is the institution that owns the spot ETFs from BlackRock and several other funds, and which is often used as a reference. You have the same thing on Binance. We have a wick here that went to get liquidity in the area of 107,000, that went to get liquidity around 106,000, but that did not go down, that did not go to get 104,000 as on perpetuals. If we look at perpetuals, meaning futures with the liquidation clusters we have experienced, and the explanation I gave you this weekend about the architectural flaw in centralized exchanges, we see that we do not have the same charts at all and not the same interpretation at all. Currently, we are more in a pattern that is holding, that is maintained, and a potential upward continuation that is happening. Nevertheless, it will not be that simple. We had a candle, an upward reaction on Sunday, which is rather classic on this side, following a purge mainly due to very aggressive shorts, a very aggressive desire. So what did we do? Short squeeze. Short squeeze that started mainly on Ethereum and Solana, and which allowed us to push, to push quite strongly, to the point that there was no CME gap on the reopening of the CME. Chicago Mercantile Exchange. I remind you that this is the institutional futures market, which was closed during the monumental liquidation we experienced on Friday evening and which maintained a closing price of 116,000. And here we reopened quietly at 115,600. We went to get this small gap with this wick, and globally we are breathing downwards. Yes, if we look at the CME, it looks like we are making a downward continuation rather than a breathing phase. And we see that there might be a divergence between altcoins and BTC here, which is rather positive. This means that altcoins are breathing a little more. But again, do not forget that it is not uniform. Some, like BNB, like Tao, are breathing much stronger and are recovering significantly. But for the most part, some altcoins are not recovering, and that is very important. We will certainly have to monitor this throughout the week because we will see what happens on the Nasdaq, but when we look at BTC on the Nasdaq, we see that we have recovered part of the drop but are starting to attack downwards again. So this means that the Nasdaq is accelerating again, and BTC is falling back behind it. And if the Nasdaq's fall accelerates again, as a continuation, and perhaps institutional fear about a continuation of the economic war, we risk having more pressure on BTC, even though I think BTC will be more resilient given that we have already purged many people.
If we look at the 4-hour chart, we see that we have retested the 115,000-114,000 levels. A small breathing phase here. What would be interesting to see is whether we will retest around 110,000-107,000 before moving again, or if we will continue to accelerate, perhaps retesting 112,000-113,000 before going around 120,000 and then perhaps going a bit lower to move again. This is rather classic, when we have a purge phase like this, we always have an upward reaction and globally a form of retest. I don't think we will go much lower, but nevertheless, a retest phase is happening. After that, the question is whether the retest phase will happen at 120,000 and we will retest 116,000 or 117,000, or whether we will retest lower, or whether the retest phase is happening now. Unfortunately, we will not know that. We have to analyze the price day by day this week, see how the Nasdaq reacts, how BTC reacts in relation to the Nasdaq, and how altcoins manage to hold during this market stabilization phase because there is a significant psychological impact. In terms of liquidations, we see it clearly, we are seeing a repositioning of longs. We have blown up a large part of the shorts. I think we can go higher. We see that there are indeed shorts at 116,000. We see that there are shorts at 119,000. So we can continue our short squeeze calmly, but nevertheless, there has been an impact and there will still be an impact for some time, and for me, we will play a lot on an upward reaction. And then here a hunt for rather low equity. We already see a lot of talk everywhere. A return of the bull run. That's it, the bull run now. Don't forget that it happens differently when you zoom out a little and look at the liquidity crises we've had, whether it's here with a purge phase, an upward reaction, and then we retested. Same on August 5th, purge phase, acceleration, retest. So be careful, especially with portfolio management. Don't react to emotion, don't use leverage to try to recover. That's really the most important thing. The point I wanted to finish on is that we are really in an interesting and very, very clean zone. Let's remove this notion of wick here. We see that the closes are happening in a bullish pattern. We are maintaining the key levels here. So globally, for me, we are really in a validation of a bullish structure. But I think we will certainly have a bearish attempt at some point to deleverage because we will go up on a return of emotion with a lot of leverage still in longs, and we will have to blow up a large part of the leverage to resume an upward phase. Ultimately, I think we have purged all the excesses that exist. We have destroyed a large part of the longs. We have reduced the open interest by almost 30%, which is enormous. And therefore, we have a setup that is rather clean for a return. However, are we in a bull run phase? No. Again, be careful about the FOMO notion that will arrive with all this green explosion, which are generally opportune moments to restructure part of your portfolio and be prepared for the next phases, which could be directly this week or even today. So be ready, good risk management. Don't react to emotion, it's super important. And we will see you very soon for a new video. M.