Transcription
Hello, this is Cryptolase. This week has been difficult, very difficult. Last Friday, not this week's, but last week's, we went from a total purge, extreme fear. Then, a rather positive bullish reaction with a return of the FOMO. Then, once again, a second purge that we experienced last Friday, which isn't really a purge but in any case a strong bearish attack, even though the macroeconomy seems to be improving. While we see an S&P 500, a NASDAQ pushing in that direction. What is concretely happening? Are we truly seeing the beginning of the bear market arriving on BTC and on all altcoins? Are we in a dynamic where we can say that the cycle is over, or is it something else entirely? I will give you my opinion in this video, and we will start with something that is quite significant for me. First, it's the bursting of a bubble, a bubble of the notion of companies that accumulate cryptocurrencies as treasury. This chart is very representative with the vision here from Messari, with a huge boom in the summer of 2025 and a huge burst afterward, where we clearly see that there was a very, very strong trend that did not consolidate, and the number of companies that decided to do it only exploded, but unfortunately, they did not get a truly interested return. And I think we are a bit in this situation where we also have a phase of decline, a phase of correction, and keep that in mind because it will be important in the last part of this video, this notion of a correction phase. Before going further, in the comments and description, you have the link to join me on Telegram where I share a lot of insights, a lot of additional content. You also have free guides on finance, trading, investment, DeFi, in short, it's in the comments and description. And we will just stop on Michael Saylor's little tweet from October 17th, which says "Volatility is a gift to the faithful." What does that mean? It means you have to trust the process and that volatility is only something positive and that you should buy. Now, is that valid or not? Is it coherent or not, compared to what is happening in terms of macroeconomics? When we look at the state of BTC versus, for example, what is happening on the S&P 500 and the close we had on the SPX, meaning the S&P 500, the 500 largest American companies, where indeed we have a rather strong macroeconomic complexity in the USA. We have the government in shutdown, meaning perhaps 10% of the government is operational and being paid. So, a shutdown costs 15 billion dollars per week. This is the information given to us by the Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, last week. So, it's a strong impact on the American economy, and a very strong one. We had Trump going directly head-to-head with China, saying over 100% on tariffs because China decided to potentially control its exports of rare earths. Rare earths that are very important, especially for technology. So, the return of the battle, but at the same time, yes, but no, it's not really that, blah blah blah blah blah, all of that to tell you that there is a big mess coming out of all of this. Despite that, we find ourselves with an S&P 500 that has not fallen sharply, a Russell that has even accelerated, even though we pulled back, we made a new high on the Russell, which represents US small caps since 2021. I don't know if you can imagine, since 2021, we haven't been this high. Even though we had a small attack in November 2024, it doesn't prevent us from having made a truly very important acceleration phase here. We find ourselves at a very strong resistance on this side as well. And while we have the DXY, the dollar, the strength of the dollar against a basket of indices, mainly Europe, where we see that we are in a form of accumulation with a reversal of a candle that was rather positive initially, so a dollar that is weakening. And despite all of that, despite the fact that we have a DXY going up, despite the fact that we have a Russell going up, despite the fact that we have a DXY falling, meaning a dollar falling, we have a BTC that is doing what we see on this chart for the month of October, with a monthly candle that is not yet finished. We are a little more than halfway through October, and despite that, it shows you how much impact there is, especially at the RSI level, where we see that the RSI has potentially made a first break, and generally, when there is a break at the RSI level, there is this notion of the end of the bear market arriving. This notion is very important because it is very cyclical. It calls into question the notion of the 4-year cycle, the 4-year cycle of BTC, and inevitably, we will hear about the bear market extensively. But is that really the case? Can we consider that we are in a bear market? Yes, it's true, we have liquidity outflows. On Friday, we again had an institutional outflow from ETFs. 366 million dollars in outflows directly. And this is something we have already seen. Once again, when we look this time at the weekly close of the CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which closes on Friday evening. We see that the close is happening below 107,000, below the bullish structure we had there. Doesn't that look like something we've already experienced? Two tops, a breakdown, two tops, a breakdown, or are we perhaps in a correction phase? But does that mean we are in a bear market? For me, it's much too early to say. Part 1: the timeframe. Part 2: we haven't had a monthly close yet. Part 3: we are still in a dynamic that is a bit different when we look at the structure and even the general state. For those who were here in 2024, you remember that here we were crying out that the bull run was over and that it was the beginning of the bear market. Same here, it was over, and the end of the bear market. And are we in the same situation here? For me, we are roughly in the same representation. That is to say, we are in a correction of a relatively strong movement, and it is perhaps the representation not of the end of the bull run, but rather of a different structuring than the 4-year cycle on BTC, mainly. I'm not talking about altcoins here. We'll talk about them a bit at the end, but I just want to tell you that I'm really focused on BTC. What's interesting to see is that we systematically have a very strong movement, a weekly movement that is subsequently corrected, a very strong movement that is subsequently corrected, a very strong movement that is subsequently corrected. For me, the break of this zone actually leads to the probability of having a correction on the total movement that has been made. And this correction could go back to retest zones like 100k, for example. Why? Because these 100k are here when we look at the entirety of the movement, the Fibonacci representation at 0.5, 0.5, 101,000, looking a bit lower, 100,000 dollars, which also represents at 98,000 here a usual inducement structure point to resume the last acceleration we experienced. So, it would be logical to aim for this part, and it's interesting to see that it's something we've already experienced, whether it was in this bullish acceleration here as well. Again, look at how it was done. Taking the 0.5, restart. The time it didn't happen was mainly due to Donald Trump. And we see that even then, we went a little below 0.5. We made a much lower wick, but it was the support zone that was established. And so, if we are in the same approach, because we have already had this part twice, once, twice, why wouldn't we be in the same situation for BTC, having a retest of 100,000 dollars and then resuming? Even if we were in a bear market phase and the beginning of a bear market, we systematically have a bearish phase, a retest phase, an acceleration phase, and we will see. In any case, it will be decided around 100,000 dollars. For me, we are not in a bear market phase, far from it. We are in something that is different for BTC, and it's something that is different from the 4-year cycles, but it's not different from what we've experienced before. And that's why it's difficult to manage, because psychologically, we are exactly in between, and this in-between is also seen technically in the structure. We talked about it in my video on the Great Reset, which I posted exactly a week ago following the drop, where we simply explained that we would have a bullish reaction here, then a second bearish leg. This is exactly what we are seeing now, and it's exactly what we also saw here, or just before on August 5th, with a bearish acceleration purge, a bullish reaction, and then a second bearish movement that can have a different timeframe. What's interesting to see is that we have a very tight timeframe currently, which is condensed, and this condensed timeframe tells us that indeed, we could have a movement here of breathing up to 110,000. Perhaps a retest again, perhaps going a bit lower, why not, and resuming. What will be important is especially the price structure. Is there a decrease in bearish pressure for the implementation of an accumulation and a restart that will be favorable? And know that it only takes a few days to erase an entire month here. Okay? It only takes 2 days to see this candle here, instead of being here, end up somewhere around here. And it's very important to remember that. We've already seen it several times. Those who have been here longer have seen it clearly, especially on BTC. So, for me, we are really in this perspective, and we don't need to be, as Michael Saylor says here, faithful. We don't need to have faith. We simply need to look technically and look at what has happened historically. What patterns can we find in the price and the structure of BTC? What is complicated right now is the psychological part. Are we at the end of the 4-year cycle or not? And are we still in this timeframe? Yes, we are still in this timeframe. It only takes a few days to resume a bullish acceleration phase, and then potentially set a top that will be a much stronger correction phase. We indeed have a structure, if we zoom out, that is somewhat identical with accelerations, retracements, acceleration, retracement, acceleration, retracement, which is also driven by the market change, which is also driven by institutions. Institutions that have a different timeframe than ours. Is this the case for all cryptos? No, it's the case for BTC. BTC has indeed changed. This is also visible in the dominance, where here we have altcoins that are not bleeding more than BTC, at least in terms of dominance, because we see it clearly, we haven't moved at all. So, this means that the purge that was done on altcoins has remained roughly the same. So, we don't have a stronger bleeding on altcoins than on BTC. We are rather in a restructuring phase that can be very interesting. However, this doesn't mean that we will resume upward tomorrow. I think what will be important to validate will be the macroeconomic information. I think we will soon have the end of the shutdown, we will have Jerome Powell's speech, we will have the figures that should be released at some point. The fear we find in the banking sector is real, and you only need to look at what has happened historically. Each time, we have a reaction from the Fed to absorb, to calm the markets regarding the banking sector, and systematically, even when there is a drop, BTC generally comes out stronger after these drops. Next week will be very important here because I think we will have a lot of volatility, but especially the beginning of a resolution phase. Even if fear continues to rise, we will have signals of resolution, and it will certainly be very good opportunities to play a bullish re-acceleration. And for those who are too exposed and for whom it is psychologically difficult because it is tiring, it is exhausting, and it is a market that has been, I think, the most exhausting and the most difficult since the beginning of my time in crypto, because we are in a market that is certainly evolving, changing, where the rules are evolving. We must indeed take that into consideration ourselves. And I assure you, it's normal to be tired, it's normal for it to be difficult. Uncertainty is what is most difficult to manage. And I will just end on this word: faithful, the notion of faith. At some point, when we were in the cycle, there was a belief in the cycle, a commitment that was made based on this belief in the cycle. But what if this cycle changes? Does the belief itself change, or does it simply stop? This is perhaps also what is most difficult to manage psychologically. In any case, be careful with your risk management. Do not FOMO, and especially do not try to make up for losses. That is really the most important thing. In the meantime, I wish you a very good weekend, and I will see you tomorrow for a very, very special video. [Music]