Transcription
NFL training camps literally just started, and we're already seeing tons of value changes in your fantasy football drafts. Surprisingly, not one of them is Malik Neighbors. Malik Neighbors, we obviously got the great news last week, not going to be starting on the PUP list, and a lot of people got excited. That really has not reflected in drafts yet. So, he is not going to be in the names today of guys that the hype has gotten out of control on with the start of training camp.
Before we get into it, just make sure to go down there, drop a like on the video, subscribe to the channel to show your support. Because when you like this video and subscribe to the channel, there is a link down there in the comments to the Art of the Defense, a free document on how to approach the defensive position in fantasy this season that you can get access to for free.
Now, getting to the first name that the hype is already getting off the rails with, Jonathan Brooks. Jonathan Brooks, obviously the Carolina Panthers running back for the last three years. This is actually year three for Jonathan Brooks, if you can believe it, because this guy has been MIA. He has been injured his entire NFL career. So, he has done literally nothing in his NFL career. Yet, somehow, this guy is going in the top 100 picks on certain platforms. On Underdog right now, 99.2 ADP. You know what the change has been in his ADP over the last three months on Underdog? It's been a 29.88 differential between where he used to go, which was a lot later, and where he goes today on Underdog.
Now, on ESPN, the change hasn't been as drastic over the last seven days. That's just because seven days is obviously not three months, but this is about to go up even more because his ADP has actually dropped to the tune of .4 spots. Again, that doesn't sound crazy. The guy's still valued as the 130th player off the board on average, but I would be willing to bet that we're going to see this change here soon because what happened during the first week of OTAs of the Carolina Panthers is a lot of news reports were dropping about how good this guy was looking at the beginning of training camp. Obviously, the guy that they drafted out of the University of Texas did have explosive capabilities that I will not disagree with. He had a little bit of pass-catching upside as well. So, a lot of people in the fantasy space have been kind of excited about Jonathan Brooks over the years, but obviously, because of injury, he didn't play last year. He did not play the majority of his rookie season in 2024.
Now, me personally, I have not been a Jonathan Brooks guy. I am more of a Chuba Hubbard guy. I said I was on an island in 2024, draft Chuba Hubbard, and guess what? The dude was a top 15 running back in fantasy football. So, I'm not going to lie and say that I don't have any sort of bias against Jonathan Brooks and for Chuba Hubbard. I definitely do have some biases there. But what we're about to see here is he's going to explode in ADP. And the way I look at this is if you take what he has done in the NFL, there's been no other player of recent note that has done as little as him and is at his draft cost. It is a ridiculous cost that is all based on projections in an offense that actually Vegas is projecting to get worse in the NFL this year. Seven out of their eight wins were actually one-score games in Carolina. And that number is historically very fickle. That is not a sticky number right there. And a lot of times, those teams are in way worse position than next year. So, the Carolina Panthers could be a much worse operation. And if they are a bottom five team, they're going to be terrible in fantasy football. So, Jonathan Brooks, the higher he gets, the less interested I am in Jonathan Brooks. Not that I had tremendous amount of interest in him anyways, but in his current ESPN price, in his current Yahoo price, I think it's fine. I also think he's fine on Sleeper, but on Underdog in particular, I think that price is just out of control.
And speaking of Underdog, you can find guys in his range that are so much more well-established at the running back position, at the receiver position, in his particular draft range than Underdog. Now, if you want to get some practice in drafts, real money drafts that some of the best drafters in the world are drafting on right now, Underdog is a great spot to be at because not only do you give yourself a ridiculous opportunity to win life-changing money if you do well, you also get a free copy of the Best Ball Draft Guide that I've been working on for years this summer. You use my code FFR at signup, not only will Underdog give you $50 back when you play just $5, I will also give you a free copy of that best draft guide. So, go ahead, go down there in the comments. There's a link there, or just go to the Underdog app in the app store. Just download it on your phone. Use code FFR at sign up and I'll give you a free copy of the Best Ball Draft Guide.
Now, our next guy that I think is already getting out of control here is Breshad Perriman. Now, Breshad Perriman is a really interesting conversation that I want to get deeper into because Breshad Perriman, there has been news over the last couple days out of Jacksonville, out of Liam Cohen's own mouth, saying that we are expecting a great deal of Breshad Perriman this year. We want him to go out there and be the guy that got him here. Meaning that the guy that they drafted is who they want to see in the NFL this year. And they expect him to put up a lot of big performances this year. Now, of course, that has had a lot of people on the Breshad Perriman hype train already very, very gassed up because Breshad Perriman, if you've been away for a lot of the offseason, he's had his core believers all offseason long and it's really hard to talk with those people because a lot of them do not have the ability to reason. I don't know why. You guys tell me. But Breshad Perriman right now, his cost has already gotten out of control on Underdog. But on ESPN, it's not terrible. 76.1 ADP is around where he's going. I don't think that's a crazy place to be. And if he stays there, I don't think that's outrageous, but I do think we're about to see him go up a lot in a lot of spots just because of those comments alone. And if he continues to go up to the early fifth round or to the back of the fourth round, we are getting in a position I don't want to be in.
Because let me talk for a second about Liam Cohen. Liam Cohen, I have discussed with coaches around the NFL. Some coaches when they talk about a player and they say positive things, you want to listen a little bit. This is the reason I was big on when Luther Burden was being praised by Ben Johnson because Ben Johnson, he's not the type of coach that's going to come in and just gloss all of his players for no reason whatsoever. But there are coaches like Sean McVay and Kevin O'Connell come to mind that do speak like politicians. They are glossing everybody and all of their players in the media just to keep up a front that they have the greatest team. I think Liam Cohen is getting into that category because if you look at what he's also said about Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Brenton Strange, Chris Rodriguez, it's all positive sentiment. So, I don't think that Breshad Perriman is special in any way, shape, or form compared to the rest of those guys that have been discussed in Jacksonville's offense by Liam Cohen this offseason. And I think if his cost starts to get out of control, then we are in a position to where it doesn't make sense to take the opportunity cost anymore because in the fifth round, it's acceptable if you really do believe in the Jacksonville. Which, by the way, Vegas is also projecting another step back for that offense, too. So, I already haven't been on board with it, but if you've been on board with it, if he gets to the fourth round, that cost is out of control because again, a lot of it is projections. So, in my opinion, keep an eye on Breshad Perriman. It's already getting crazy for me.
Now, the last guy that's in training camp, and we're going to get into before we leave, a couple of guys that I think are just outrageously cost right now, not necessarily due to training camp, but Jaylen Wadd is the next guy I want to talk about here. Jaylen Wadd is a guy who is actively rising up draft boards right now. You look at Underdog, you look at ESPN, these are places where he's actively rising up draft boards and it's only going to get worse because Jaylen Wadd was recently called Sean Payton's Joker. Now, Sean Payton has long had the Joker moniker for players that he likes to use in a lot of different spots. You know, whether it's in the slot, whether it's outside, whether it's in tight, he does use the Joker moniker for players he views as the most versatile in his offense. And naturally, when people hear the word Joker associated with a player on Sean Payton's teams, they think it equals fantasy football upside. That is just not the case when it comes to the Joker moniker with Sean Payton. If you look at the history of players that Sean Payton has called the Joker. Well, Evan Engram is the most recent example in Denver. Evan Engram literally was a disaster in 2025 fantasy football. He also called Greg Dulcich the Joker back in 2023 when he first arrived as the Denver Broncos head coach. So, he has called two tight ends the Joker in recent years with Denver, and they have both been abominations for fantasy football. Now, if you want to go back to his New Orleans days, obviously there were some hits like Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham, but of recent history, the players that Sean Payton has called the Joker have actually been fantasy football disasters.
Now, does that name alone mean that Jaylen Wadd is going to be terrible in fantasy? No, it doesn't mean that. But it also should not launch his draft spot into oblivion. And that's what's been happening. You used to be able to get Jaylen Wadd at the beginning to mid-fifth in Underdog drafts. Those days are over. You're getting him closer to the fourth round. You're getting him closer to the early fourth round pick in fantasy football drafts over on Underdog. On ESPN, he still is decently priced, but this cost is going to start going up the more hype he generates by being called the Joker. So, for me personally, Jaylen Wadd is another name I think it's starting to get out of control with because if you just look at range of outcomes and what the opportunities are going to break down in Denver this year, if you look at Courtland Sutton, where he excels is in the red zone. He excels down the field as well. He's going to take a lot of touchdowns away from Wadd. Now, Jaylen Wadd could easily finish as a 1,200-yard receiver this year, but I do think he'll be struggling to get beyond six touchdowns because of Courtland Sutton. So, for me personally, Jaylen Wadd, he starts to get close to the fourth round, mid-early fourth round. That's a ridiculous cost, and I think that's exactly what appears to be happening at this point.
Now, before we get out of here today, I do want to address two more players that not necessarily are being training camp hyped right now, but they've gotten a lot of hype this offseason, and their cost is ridiculous right now. Luther Burden is obviously the first guy I want to talk about because this cost was crazy from the jump. This one has not changed. And it's unfortunate because if anything, people are actually getting a little more excited about this one with the comments that Ben Johnson made just about two months ago at this point. Ben Johnson obviously said, I mentioned earlier that he was buying Luther Burden's stock in 2026. And again, I do think that is worth noting because when you look at the advanced metrics on Luther Burden, they are outrageously good. And I understand why people do have some excitement for Luther Burden. But once again, much like Breshad Perriman and Jonathan Brooks, a lot of this is based on projection and not substance that he's already put on the board. He did have a good run to end last year, but there's also a lot of weapons in Chicago that could easily make his ADP outrageous in the fourth round. So, to be honest with you, Luther Burden is just been in position all offseason that I have not appreciated. I would like to take some Luther Burden. I just think the cost has been so crazy all offseason, and I don't think it's going to change anytime soon. So, the hype for me on this player is still out of control.
And then the last guy that I want to talk about, Christian Watson is getting crazy right now, guys. I mean, seriously, what are we doing with Christian Watson? Used to be, somebody used to call him on my channel, the Walmart version of Jameson Williams. Basically meaning this is a Jameson Williams type of player who can explode in certain weeks but is not going to be consistent. But the good thing with him is that you could get him at a Walmart cost. Well, I'm here to tell you Walmart has jacked up their freaking prices when it comes to Christian Watson because Christian Watson is inside the sixth round in most platforms right now. Now, there are some exceptions on ESPN. You can actually get him at a relatively affordable seventh, eighth round cost. I don't have a problem with that. But if you just want to look at the history with Christian Watson, what would go through your mind to make you think he's worth a fifth round cost? Christian Watson in every single one of his seasons has missed time. So, it automatically the first thing you should do is be able to look at this and just identify you're going to get at least three to four games where Christian Watson's not playing. So, you're going to have to factor that into your roster. And if you're drafting him as a fifth round guy, you're expecting him to be either a weekly flex option or a wide receiver two option. That's strike number one. Strike number two, he has never had a finish better than the wide receiver 35 in a half-PPR format. So, this guy has never even touched, never even come close to being a high-end wide receiver two in fantasy football. And now we're drafting him as if he's a back-end wide receiver two or a high-end wide receiver three. The cost here does not make sense. It has not made sense. And it's only gotten worse since he signed his four-year deal. Worth a lot of money. And I'm sure the Packers do want to get him involved a little bit more. But what are we doing, guys? There are so many games you have to factor in he's just not going to come through for whatever reason, whether it's injury missing time or whether it's because he's still just more of a limited player, which he is still. And then also, you just look at the history and the guy has struggled to post a wide receiver three finish in fantasy football at any point in his career. This cost has gotten so crazy and it's not really slowing down. So, the hype on him, the hype on Luther Burden, even without factoring in training camp, have been absolutely out of control this offseason.
So, let me know what player you think the hype is out of control on right now in fantasy. I appreciate you guys hanging out with me today. And if you want to see the draft strategy that won $2 million last year and how we can use it in 2026, click on this video right here.