Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about Bitcoin in the first instance, which is still pumping. Is this time the bottom? We are going to retrace like the last two days. Then, we will talk about Ethereum, which is outperforming Bitcoin. We will look at three altcoins that were requested for analysis. I have Hyper Liquid, Solana, and BNB. And we will finish with the US market. Before I start, I warned yesterday, I am warning you again, today, I launched a contest on Discord. For those who want to participate, you just need to join Discord. Go here to the contest tab and you have the rules for participation here. It's quite simple. So there you go, there are 2 x $100 to win. So a total of $200 and you have until Tuesday evening to take advantage of it. And I will do the draw immediately. I will send you the funds directly. To join, click on the first link in the description.
So I'm starting here with Bitcoin. We are seeing a pump again, here on the US market which opened rather well, but we retraced directly. So, we already put in a bottom before, we went to look for quite low levels. Here, we trapped quite a few sellers. Okay, there were quite a few sell market orders here. We simply absorbed the majority of the sell market orders. We will see that later on the footprint. And we had a bullish reaction directly. A liquidity grab, re-entry, deviation, well deviation, re-entry. Logically, when we make this kind of movement, it's to go look for the opposite extremity. Here, we have a range that has been built, but we can simply draw here and put a volume profile. And when we simply have a re-entry of a value low or even of a value high, it's often to go look for the opposite extremity. I will delete this so as not to bias you and so you don't have other levels. See, hop, at this level, re-entry of the value high. What you need to know is a volume profile. We have 70% of the volumes traded here and we have imbalances here. Imbalances here and here the market is balanced. Okay? And when we go from an imbalanced zone to a balanced zone, it's generally to go look for the opposite extremity. So we have the example here, we go below the value high, it's to go look for the value reaction H2. We go back to look for the value high, we re-enter to go look for the value, we go back above to go look for the value high. And for the moment, we are defending it. This is for those who are looking for trading strategies, ways to trade, there are many ways to trade. What matters is that you find an advantage on the market that gives you a statistical edge and allows you to have a profitable strategy. After that, there are many ways to trade. We can use volume profiles, we can use moving averages, we can use volume indicators, it doesn't matter. The goal is that you do statistics. Okay? And if these stats show you that this strategy works, then all the better. I'm not a fan of people who say "yes, those who trade patterns are crap, it doesn't work." Those who trade ICT, it doesn't work. No, for me, anything can work. Anything can work to go far in this. Moon phases, for those who don't know, in 2021 it worked a lot. That is to say, the market had cycles, let's say medium term, depending on the moon phases, full moons simply. And we see that during the entire bull market, full moon phase top. Full moon phase bull bottom. Well, we don't have too much. Bottom top bottom top bottom top bottom. Yes, it worked rather well. There you go.
So, I don't know what it looks like now. See, top here. Top. Perfectly. Yes, see, it worked rather well. Is there a technical link between the Moon and the market? None. Now, for me, in trading, in investing, anything can work. What you need to do is have an advantage, have stats on a large sample size, and then you have an edge, an advantage. But that requires going through backtesting phases. And there can be many models. I can sometimes trade with moving averages, pivot points. There you go, I have quite classic indicators, but it works for me. Sometimes, depending on the trading style I want to adopt, I can vary certain tools, certain indicators. What I advise you is simply to first understand the indicators you use and then simply have stats. But for those who want to trade a range, for example, or deviations, re-entry value high, value low, in any case, it's a good strategy. After that, it's up to you to see the execution, at what moment you enter a position, but here we had the perfect example of a deviation and re-entry, as I said, to go look for the opposite extremity. New York session opening at 3:30 PM, we had a good pump. We went to look for here, not the previous daily high. We weren't far from going to look for it, but we stopped before with a good selling reaction. Now we are still in a compression between the medium-term moving average and the short-term moving average. We see that in the short term, we have the 3-minute tunnel acting as support with good buying pressure. The 15-minute also acting as support below, and we are in the 1-hour tunnel. The 1-hour tunnel has acted as resistance two or three times. For the moment, we are still below the 1-hour. If we start to break, to go above this level, for me, we can accelerate and go look for the 4-hour tunnel here, which has also been resistance for a long time. During this entire phase, it acted as resistance, if it wants to display. Uh, yes, there you go, perfectly. We see that it perfectly acted as resistance here. If we break the 1-hour, we will go into the 4-hour. There is a good localization zone. $91,500. It's still a zone where we can look for shorts if we have a selling reaction. And if we break the 4-hour, we could put in a big bottom and go look for the tunnel. For me, this is not scenario number 1. Why? Because we remain in a downtrend, and the most important thing is to have a market direction. How do we generally operate when we trade? The first thing we have for someone who trades the trend is to determine a bias, a market direction. Here, I will rather have a short bias in the medium to long term. Why? Because we are in a downtrend. The lows and highs are getting lower. When you determine your bias, what do you need? You need a zone to know where you will position yourself, okay? Where, if there is a pullback, you will simply look for a short. Why a short? Because we have a bearish bias. When you have determined your zone, then what you need is simply the execution, because very well, you have your zone, but do you enter here, here, at what moment do you enter? Globally, execution can be a selling reaction, it can be a pattern, it can be a signal on an indicator, it doesn't matter. When you have that, well, you have your trade. After that, it goes beyond that, there is everything that will be trade management, risk management, psychology, follow-up. There are other points to consider, but on a position, you determine your bias, the direction, you determine the zone where you want to position yourself, and then there is the execution. After that, there is all the trade management, etc., etc. Currently, as I said, if we push, and we start to break this high, we could simply break the previous daily high, which is this level. And given the number of positions that are open in this zone, okay, at the extremities, we can go and see later with the footprint, I think we can have a short squeeze here and accelerate quickly. Yes. Accelerate towards $92,300. For me, this is a scenario that is entirely possible and to go back to look for this resistance zone because there are really quite a few stops just above. We can go and see it. Hop, if I go here, tac. See, hop, here, quite a few orders that are trapped. Each time on these big pumps, we have a lot of orders that are open, and if we start to manage to go above these highs, I think we can liquidate quite a few people. Uh, so this is simply the buy and sell market orders, it's what makes the market move. I remind you, I'm going back to trading here to explain to you, sometimes I try to go into more advanced trading in these kinds of videos. Okay? So for someone who is starting, it can be Chinese, but I try to adapt to everyone. Sometimes we talk a bit more classic, sometimes a bit more advanced. Here, if I talk a bit more advanced about what I showed you before, what you need to understand is that there are two types of orders. Market orders, limit orders. Okay? A market order is an order that is executed right now when you are on your trading platform. You can enter either by market or by limit. By market, as I said, you get executed right now, and when you are by limit, you are a passive order, an order that is waiting to be executed, and you do not impact the market. If we remove market orders, only limit orders remain, the market does not move because it is market orders that make the price move. When a market order is opened, for example, if I am a buy market, meaning I buy at the market, I will directly hit a sell limit because when I am a buyer, there is a seller in front. When I am a seller, there is a buyer in front. If I sell market, in front, if I sell market in front, it's to find a buy limit, and I execute a passive order. And what I showed you just before here are all the sell market and buy orders. So the advantage is that we can go into more detail inside a candle and see the number of bitcoins that were executed, whether it was selling on the left side or buying on the right side, and see at interesting levels if we have what we call absorptions or if we simply have breakouts. When we arrive at an interesting level, for example, this is an interesting level to take a long. Why? Because it's our value low. We have an LVN here, an imbalance in the volume profile. Okay, a very good zone here to intervene, and at the contact of this level, what do we see? A lot of selling. Okay, so strong selling pressure. We see it with the red candles or also on the numbers, a lot of selling, except that the market doesn't go down. That is to say, there is an absorption. That is to say, in front, we simply had limit buyers who absorbed all these orders. Then, we had the same thing, see. Hop, we pump. And at this level, what did we have? A lot of buyers. A lot, a lot. We see, we can zoom in, see inside. See, there is a person, there were 403 bitcoins bought in market at $89,300, and the market did not move, did not move much. Which means what? It means there is a counterparty, there was an absorption, and there were simply limit sells that absorbed all these buy market orders. And this gives us an indication, which is that here we have a selling reaction. Well, not a selling reaction, but rather an absorption of aggressive buyers. And this is interesting, to see at the moment we are at key levels, it can be breakout levels or whatever, whether we will have an absorption or whether we will simply have a breakout. And this is seeing the volumes in relation to the price. We associate the two. When we are at a key level, if we have a lot of sell market orders but the price doesn't go down, it simply indicates that we have an absorption. And see the difference with a break, this is a break. Why? Because we have a lot of sell market orders, but the market is going down here. It's going down. And you see here, yesterday what I told you to contextualize, if I take this again, it might be simpler for you. We are here, you see, it's the low at this level. What do we have when I look at the volumes? A lot of sell market orders, a lot. A lot, a lot. And here we see 364, 261, except that we have strong selling pressure. We even see a CVD here, the cumulative volume delta, which is going down. It's normal, we have negative deltas, except that we have green candles, which means that in front, we have passive buyers who are absorbing, and here we perfectly put in a bottom. So it's not because we have selling pressure that it will go down. What you need to tell yourself is, okay, selling pressure, but is there a counterparty in front that is absorbing? And here, for the moment, we are starting to go above this level. All the shorts that are open here will be underwater. Buyers will be in profit, and for me, we can go look for the next levels. And here, if really, if we go above $49,450, we can really short squeeze and go much higher. And here again, in fact, we can have a big cascade of liquidations and go back to quickly reach $92,000 if we manage to trigger these levels. Because above these highs, there are quite a few stops, and well, tell yourself that if we go above, the short sellers are underwater and they will have the opportunity to close their position. Uh, there you go. And for the moment, we maintain good buying pressure on the CVD. There is no particular bearish absorption or divergence. If, for example, on the price, we start to make a new high, but on the CVD we don't make a new high, then it will indicate that on the contrary, there is an absorption. But for the moment, that's not the case. There you go.
After that, we don't have to try to anticipate what will happen. The goal is always to react to what we see. And for me, in any case, I was looking to position myself, I would wait for a breakout of this level with buying volume and observe if there is absorption or not. And then, simply do momentum trading. Anyway, when you trade like this with volumes, the most important thing is either we have a break, have confirmation on the volume, or we have a pullback on an interesting level. It can be a value, it can be a pivot point, it doesn't matter, see if we absorb, if we have absorptions like this, and if we trap, because the sellers who are trapped here are future buyers. Perhaps the sellers who sold here bought at this level. Because I remind you, when you are in a position, if you get liquidated, if you close your position, a stop loss, etc., you are a future buyer. And that's fuel. If you are long, and conversely, if you are short, the buyers at this level are future sellers. The buyers who entered here, perhaps they are the future sellers who sold at this level. There you go, in any case, for this US session on BTC and the importance of understanding how the price moves. It's always interesting to observe it. Uh, there you go for Bitcoin. If I talk here about Ethereum, which has come back to the low extremity, bullish reaction again. This is where we see market psychology, it's always hard to buy at low levels like this. When Ethereum drops by -6%, when it has 3 consecutive red days, -15%. When it then has -20% in about a week, it's always unpleasant to buy. And remember this, and it's really a lesson, and even for me sometimes I think about it when I say "Ah, I don't really like the market." Well, sometimes I tell myself "Okay, is it unpleasant to buy?" Yes. Well, often it's a good time to do it. Why? Because when the market makes us doubt, when the market scares us, these are often good times to enter a position. Now, I'm not talking about long-term positions to buy here, to sell at $10,000, but at least to capture a move. And even for someone who positions themselves for the short term, a swing trader for example, or someone who does intraday like this. Okay, they enter a position, stop loss here below the low. Well, if they start to target 2 for a for a or here this high, well they have a good risk reward and they make their trade within the day. Okay? There's no need to look for 20, 30, 40 points for a 1:1 or 1:2 risk reward. It's a very good trade, and it's often when the market is uncomfortable, when it's always difficult to buy and enter a position. Now, Ethereum, we still remain in a bearish pressure. And I'm putting moving averages here, we still have the 4-hour below the daily, and moving averages pointing downwards. If we manage to break the 4-hour, we can come back to look for the daily around $3,400. And this is the big level to break to hope for Ethereum to return to an uptrend and retest $3,800 and $4,000. And similarly, if we don't hold these levels, anyway, yes, there are two or three support levels, three resistance levels, three support levels. That's enough to frame a chart and simply make decisions. If we lose this level, we will have a high chance of going to look for the low extremity around $2,200.
Regarding the US market. Uh, so, this chart, no? This chart that I wanted. Perfect. Still in this big phase of lateralization, there was a false trap with a false deviation below 6008 and we are back above. We are not far from making a new ATH. In the end, we have a somewhat tricky and difficult market with the current volatility. Especially yesterday, we had the inflation announcement. It was when we were on Friday, Thursday, there was quite a bit of volatility, a big pump followed by a re-entry even though we had bullish news. The market still makes us doubt a lot. In the end, this level of, well, 6008, we had a deviation, re-entry. In this kind of context, the objective is to go look for the opposite extremity. Similarly, we take a volume profile, there you go, we go below the value low. Okay, we deviate, we re-enter. Direct objective, go look for the opposite extremity. And here, we are coming out of this value high. So here, the objective is to maintain it. Each time, we re-entered it quite quickly. And you see, as soon as we re-enter, we go directly to look for the opposite extremity. If we stay above this value high, well, the objective is simple here on the SP500, it's to make a new ATH. There you go, the objective is very simple, it's to go back above 6950 and make another bullish leg. So, will we go there? If we look at the moving averages here, we have a bit less amplitude than during this phase, but here, we could simply be in a lateralization phase to experience a new rise. From an economic point of view, a week ago I told you that it wasn't great for the SP500 with Powell's speech, with the rates that are planned for 2026, I don't expect anything crazy. Now, it's true that the latest announcements we've had, whether it's the unemployment rate, the NFP, and inflation, why not have a readjustment and have a new bullish leg, it's possible. Now, if I just take the technical side, there's a higher probability of an ATH. Why? Because we are here in a range preceded by an impulse, more chance of breaking upwards. You know that I like this mindset to have on the markets, it's when we form a range here, a pause phase like we have here for example, like we have at this level, hop, even we can have like at this level, even if we broke downwards, you always have to ask yourself the question "Okay, what preceded it? Are we preceded by an uptrend, a downtrend?" See here, a range, we go back to look for here, at what point do we determine that it's a range at this level? It's that here we have a low, a high, a low that goes back to the same level as before. For me, we are entering a range here. At this level, I tell myself, okay, we are in a range, but we have more chance of exiting it upwards. Same mentality here. Okay? So, this time, we break downwards, it's normal. We can't have 100% success, and especially in an uptrend, there will be a moment when we will break downwards and mark a top. Now, if for each range, you proceed in this way where you say "Very well, I draw my range, hop, here I have a range, here, yes, I have a small range that are not as beautiful as in the books you will read with lows at the same level, highs at the same level, etc." And here, this range is a bit simpler to draw. After that, we have small ones and big ones. Well, always look at where we come from. Okay, we come from below, well, we have more chance of exiting upwards. By proceeding in this way, you will have a better success rate. After that, again, there is always the execution to have. It's not because you are right that you will have good execution. But yes, in any case, on the SP500, it would be good not to go back below this level because then we would validate a reversal pattern.
Regarding altcoins, you asked me to analyze, I have BNB here. So, BNB, where are we? A somewhat weak crypto at the moment. After all, it performed very well. Okay. For me, here, if we have to revisit a level of interest in the long term, it's around $700, between $600 and $650-$700. Why? Because we are close to the 0.8, we would be close to the 2021 peak. There is a whole zone of interest here. If I take a volume profile and put it on this bullish phase, we see that we also have an imbalance in this zone. We have the POC which is a bit lower. Well, I won't take a volume profile on the whole phase because I will have a very low POC. There is no interest. If I put it here in this zone, we see that it is also our value high. So there are several ways to put a volume profile. Either we put a volume profile in a range at this level which allows me to simply determine where my accumulation, re-accumulation zone is. This is a re-accumulation zone to make a higher high. And the value high is a good zone to determine the level to avoid re-entering. Or we put a volume profile at this level in an uptrend to determine. Well, I like to even take it before the uptrend, where I made the low, how to simply use a Fibonacci to determine where my imbalance is. Here we see a good confluence between this value high, previous value high, and this LVN here, this gap in the volume profile. It's normal, some will call it an imbalance, an FVG, a fair value gap, etc. In any case, it's an imbalance. Okay? And if we go there, it can be a gap, a good zone to look for longs, a good zone to position yourself with an invalidation if we start to go back below this level. If we start to go back below the POC, here we have a double POC below an important low. This can give you a good risk reward, someone looking for a long position in the zone, invalidation below the low and target a retracement, go back to look for the value high, we can put a 1:2 risk reward. That's up to you. This is a good trade. There you go, to continue the trend on a long-term trend. If I put moving averages, we might have a 3-day tunnel here. There you go, we have a good confluence in this psychological price zone. I'm not saying we'll get there, but if we do, it could be a good place to take a long to aim for a rebound. 57% on BNB. We could have this type of rebound for a continuation, I don't know. But in any case, the interesting zone is there. After that, if you want to do long-term accumulation, I would wait for a much more significant retracement. For me, we are still at quite high levels.
Then, I was asked for an analysis of Solana. Well, Solana, it's range on range. We go look for the upper extremity, we deviate, we go back to look for the lower extremity. We have this zone now that I could draw, I think I drew it before, but I'll redraw it here, which is a level, yes, of interest, and then of support in case we break downwards, we will also have this level of interest. Hop, we are also between points of interest. We are in this lateralization phase. Similarly, if I put a volume profile, there you go, we are at the value low level. It's a good zone to look for longs, someone looking for a range. Here, we are in a good zone to take longs to revisit the opposite extremity. However, it's a level that must hold because if we exit this lateralization phase, which has been going on for 2 years now, it's to first go look for $80, then we have the $45-$50 level if we really have to retrace and go look for a lower level. I'm looking here at this entire rise, if we had imbalances. Here, we've filled it, we see it perfectly. After that, well, the imbalance is associated with this support level, and then it is also associated with this support level. Hop. So step by step, step by step on Solana, if we have a bullish reaction here, it might be worth positioning yourself with an invalidation below to revisit $180. And for long-term investment, $80, $50, it becomes interesting again. After that, do you want Solana in your portfolio? That's another question. We don't just do technical analysis when we want to include an altcoin in our long-term portfolio.
And the last crypto, Hyper Liquid. So I have orders in the form of a fishing net that have been executed. I think I told you. Why? Because this whole zone up to $20 interests me on Hyper Liquid to reposition myself. We are in this strong consolidation zone. If I switch to weekly, we are in our reload zone, 0.78, 0.786. A good zone. And when I have strong convictions on a crypto like this, I like to position myself in this long-term reload zone. I don't exclude that we can go lower, no problem. That's why I don't put all the cash I have available here on Hyper Liquid. Why? Because I want to have this flexibility in case the market pushes lower, which is possible, which is largely possible. I will have cash to position myself. There is nothing worse than being stuck in a position, having entered too high, for example at this level, and not having the cash available to enter here. Either you enter high but it's to invalidate quickly. So you enter here, the market proves you wrong, you exit at this level so you have the cash to enter lower. But if you enter here, you go all in and you don't take your loss here and you are in hold mode, okay? Except that it will be very frustrating if we come back to 24, 20, if we come back to even $15, you already take a big drawdown and especially you don't have the ability to buy back much lower here. So for that, always be flexible. You will see, you will always be more comfortable having cash set aside, and then you can operate in different ways. I told you, something like this, I quickly think about how I operate without entering. It won't be precise in terms of percentages of allocations. But let's say, I tell myself, very well, on Hyper Liquid, I will put $10,000. I operate in two ways. Hop, one, it will be orders in fishing net mode. So lots of small orders at a level of interest, for example here, and the other will be to wait for a W structure to form. And then it will depend on you, your skills, your ability to analyze, the time you have to allocate, your convictions, many things to consider because the $10,000 cash, how to allocate it? Is it $5,000 here, $5,000 here? Is it $3,000 here, $7,000 here? That will depend. If from the start you say I'm very bad at technical analysis, I don't know how to spot a bottom, it's complicated. You can do much more, $8,000 here and $2,000 here, or $9,000 if you are more balanced, 55. Okay? Because the advantage of fishing net mode is that you can have very interesting, very low entries, as I was able to have orders here on Hyper Liquid. I had them, I re-entered at this level. The disadvantage is that if it continues to fall, ah well, you can take a big drawdown compared to the W structure, or if you have it, you generally have a bottom. Not 100% sure, of course, but you have a high chance of having a bottom and you have very little drawdown. Now, you need to have the ability to spot the bottom. It's not just Hyper Liquid that needs to be analyzed, you need to look at Bitcoin, the market context. But currently, I am positioning myself like this. Someone who really cannot spot a bottom, can replace this with a DCA. I'm not a fan of DCA except on big cryptos where you have strong convictions and you say "Okay, in one way I operate with DCA and in another way I enter at major support levels." That can work. In any case, here we are in a good zone of interest, but for the moment we don't have any bullish signals on Hyper Liquid. We remain in a bearish dynamic. And there you go, we've covered everything. I'm done on my end. As I said, don't hesitate to join Discord for those who want to participate in the contest. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye!