Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market. We will talk about Bitcoin first, it's pushing quite a bit. Bitcoin confirming its break. What's next? Is it an ATH? $100,000? On the contrary, as some may say, we will have a distribution pattern. Opinions differ a bit on the internet. We will then talk about Ethereum. I will show you some trades that I took. Some altcoins are pushing a bit, but not that much. It's mainly Bitcoin that is leading right now. We see it here with the Bitcoin dominance which is increasing and a US market that is down. So, quite a lot to discuss today. We will start here with BTC which, with the close it achieved, confirms the break of this range. A range that lasted about 2 months. And here, we are really in the process of accepting the breakout of this range. Break and acceptance are two different things. When we talk about a break, we simply mean a close above a level. When we talk about acceptance, we simply mean a rejection pullback or simply acceptance by spending 2, 3, 4 days above, which confirms that we have exited this sideways phase. Something we are currently doing. We see that it's a real break this time. No, never anticipate when you have a close like this, a distribution. In fact, it's impossible to predict when you have a close above or below a level that it will be a distribution, a trap. In fact, you are anticipating, and there is nothing worse. That is to say, you anticipate what market participants will do in the future. It's literally impossible. Whereas instead of doing that, try to react. That is to say, at what point do you say it's a potential distribution if we re-enter. Here, we are re-entering. Okay, you already have a confirmation that we are going back below a level. Okay, we might be in a distribution, but never try to anticipate a distribution. You cannot know what will happen in the future, it's literally impossible. Okay? So, try to react with what you simply see before your eyes. And for now, what we have on Bitcoin is simply a break with the acceptance above $94,500 and we are quietly heading towards $100,000. In any case, that's the next resistance zone, and we'll have to see how the market behaves at that level. Will we reject to retest the range? Will we consolidate to reach the next resistance zone? That's hard to anticipate. Similarly, we will have to monitor what the market does at that level. In any case, we are regaining volatility. It's interesting. This is where there can be opportunities to seize. You saw in the last videos, I talked a lot about some trades that I showed you. There were altcoins that were breaking out, we'll see just after, which are also interesting. And here, Bitcoin, yes, that's what it's doing. If I put moving averages here, we are in a good bullish dynamic. Oops, I'll just remove the Fibonacci so it's clearer. We see that the 3-minute is acting as support. We came to lean on it to move forward. We again have a US session that is bullish, I've been telling you this since last Thursday or Wednesday. Every US session is bullish right now. We see it clearly yesterday at the opening at 3:30 PM, the market exploded. At that level, on Monday, the market exploded. And here, the market continues to explode. We simply have cryptocurrencies that are bullish during this US session. Similarly, this is a mindset to consider when you trade. If you have a bullish session here, a second one in a row, a third, a fourth, etc., don't start telling yourself, "Ah, the next one will be bearish." No, we always assume that if we have consecutive bullish sessions, we always assume that the next one will also be bullish. Now, you shouldn't anticipate too much either. We wait for confirmations, but in any case, when we are in a period where every US session is bullish, the next one, don't start telling yourself, "Oh, this time, it's certain, it will be bearish." Uh, no, that's playing heads or tails, and you're not even on the side of probability because we have an upward momentum on the sessions, let's say. It's like predicting that the market will reverse in an uptrend. You have a higher chance of being wrong. So, we are in a phase on Bitcoin. It's interesting to continue the trend by pulling back to the 3-minute channel or the 15-minute channel for those who do intraday, and the 1-hour and 4-hour for swing trading. Especially since we have such high volatility, it remains tricky because it would be a significant retracement. And if we go back to such low levels, it would be a bad signal. For my part, we can pull back. There's nothing wrong with a pullback. Don't start panicking if, for example, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, we have a -3% or -4% because we can very well retrace. Just because we retrace doesn't mean it's the end and we're going to re-enter. However, there are two zones that I will really watch. First, if I have a confirmation with a daily close below, the value high below that level, I will have a bad signal because I don't want to re-enter a value high. But I can tell myself, okay, buyers are not too keen, sellers are pushing, potentially we can go back to test this zone. However, if we start to settle below this low, it's a major inversion of our dynamic for me, with a big trap. And then we can talk about a deviation. And then, of course, there will be a high chance of reaching the opposite extreme. Now, for the moment, that's not the case. We don't predict that. We react if it happens, we invalidate scenarios, we invalidate trades if we go back below that level. But for now, the market is bullish. As soon as we have higher lows and higher highs, we will quietly head towards the next zones. In any case, for me, in the short term, we have a higher probability of going here rather than here, and a higher probability of continuing to rise rather than going below that level. Higher probability is not 100%, no, it's a gauge, and that must be taken into account in your risk management. It's not because I say there's a higher probability that you should go all-in. So, in any case, this breakout is quite good, as I said, in total silence. We see it even on the spreads, it's not that much. At the funding level, it's very interesting, and I love that we're doing this. That is to say, a bullish trend with negative funding. Look at this kind of phase where we continued to rise. This is very interesting that we have negative funding. Generally, it indicates that there are more shorts than longs. Well, it's a bit simplistic to interpret it that way. I won't go into technical terms, but understand globally that the sentiment is not very positive. It's not as simple as saying there are specifically more shorts than longs, but you see it like this: when we have negative funding, especially during major drops, for example, the FTX crash, that's a good example, then simply tell yourself that we are in a phase where the sentiment is more negative than positive. And when we rise with negative sentiment, it means that quite a few people are shorting, fighting the movement. This creates quite a few liquidations to the upside, and especially, we don't have a big buyer awakening yet, in the sense that we don't have major market euphoria, and when people realize that this time it's going up and it's the real deal, they will start to FOMO, and that will be the fuel for what's next. In addition, we have support on the CVD spot. We see it here, it's been a long time since the CVD spot has been so high. A slight increase here, but this is quite good. We see that it's rather supported on the CVD futures. So, this movement in any case seems to be a real movement. And we see the first signs of liquidation which are arriving, which is quite normal. We were in a major compression phase. So, my plan for Bitcoin going forward, we'll do long-term, short-term, because I was asked the question on Discord. How is it going? Are you entering? Because you were talking about lower levels. It's not because I talk about lower levels that it's 100% certain we'll go there. It's something to consider. It's not because we're pumping that we can no longer reach those levels. That's also something to consider. In any case, the best thing I can recommend, and I will never be at these extremes like you'll see on YouTube where people will tell you, "Yes, you have to be all-in on crypto because it's $300,000," or others who will tell you, "Yes, you have to get out of crypto because it's going to collapse." No, it's an exposure slider. And this exposure slider, which varies between 0 and 100, but let's remove the 0 and 100, I would advise you between 20 and 80. Never go to the extremes of 100% crypto or 100% cash, that will allow you to be more comfortable. And this slider, you will simply vary it according to your convictions on the markets, according to your analysis, according to how the market evolves. When we start to pump, reaching high levels, we reduce our exposure. We simply take profits on the rise, for example, $100,000, $120,000 in this cycle, and when we retrace, that's when we can re-expose ourselves. If we look at Bitcoin's history, when did I expose and de-expose myself? I mainly entered in this zone. I de-exposed myself at this level. I de-exposed myself, globally it was $120,000, so at that level, and I de-exposed myself here. And when did I re-expose myself to BTC at this level? while having orders lower down, and at this level while also having orders lower down here. Now, I'm not saying you absolutely have to be in. If my orders are not all executed on Bitcoin, it's not a problem. And it's not because of that that you will lose, it's not because of that that you will be a bad investor. No, I will always have cash because I will be comfortable, especially in crypto where the market can have very high volatility. The proof is on October 10th when the market totally crashed. Well, here, I was glad to have orders in "fishing net" mode on certain highly liquid cryptos where while some burned their capital, I generated gains. And that's why if you don't have cash, you can't make this kind of profit that we were able to make here, or even without a crash like that, even when we have retracement phases like here, many were stuck. So, rather optimistic from my side on Bitcoin, I haven't had any trend continuation trades here. I haven't had any setups executed on my end for BTC. Maybe tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, I don't force trades, you know me. If I don't have a setup that triggers, I move on. However, I have trades that are executing that I shared with you recently. I have ICP where I entered a position that took off directly. So, rather a trade for swing trading, which I might keep for a few days, a week, it depends. It reminds me a bit of the trade I took. It was at the beginning of November where this trade simply, we come back here, sorry, to make a lower low. We have, I don't even know if there was a liquidity grab, I think we wick slightly. In any case, we are at a major support level, and then we consolidate, and suddenly, bam, buyer awakening. And then, a buyer awakening where ICP does what on the day? +17% while all altcoins are doing nothing, +1%, -1%, etc., nothing is moving. I say something is happening, I enter for validation below the low. Well, it's pretty much the same here. ICP is pumping well, breaking its range upwards. We came to pullback slightly here on the wick, and I enter a position with a stop loss below the low because if we go back below this low, it's better to invalidate, it means we'll clearly go lower. And the target is 0.382. That gives me a ratio of about 4 to 1. After that, we'll do trade management as I like to do, because often people share trades. What I like is, okay, you share a trade, that's one thing, it's not investment advice. I'm not here to give signals because for me, it brings you nothing to say I'm entering here. If you think you're going to win, if you're going to be profitable, if it's going to help you to just copy-paste without understanding anything, I'm telling you, you can generate that in the short term, of course, in the long term, it won't change anything at all. And I know some will listen to me and say, "No, I just want to copy everyone." You'll see in the long term, it won't work. I'm telling you, clearly. And yes, what's important is trade management, it's how we will accompany this bullish momentum on ICP. So, in any case, we have a good close today. The trade is going very well with very little drawdown, that's rather pleasant. And depending on how the trade evolves, there will be a move to break-even, there will be partial profit-taking, depending on how it evolves on ICP. So, I took this trade, and I also took a trade. I took this trade on Optimism as I showed you yesterday. For me, we had a good close, but well, it's not taking off like ICP, that's how it is, it can't always take off, it can't only be perfect trades. Well, after that, there's volatility, not much is happening for now. So, we consolidate, we wait, and we'll see what happens. For now, I'm respecting my plan. I have my impulsive candle breaking this range upwards. I have a magnificent buyer reaction with a weakening of sellers here. It could be a bottom structure, and I have my invalidation below this low because if we start to go back below this level with a daily close, we'll be in a trap and risk going to the top at about three to one. And again, it's not because I set my TP there that I'll close everything here. It will depend on how the market evolves. You have to let your trades breathe. You shouldn't try to cut too quickly, let the gains run. From the moment we have a bullish momentum, we let the gains run, of course. So, we will follow these trades on Optimism and ICP. Now, let's do an analysis of Ethereum. Ethereum is approaching its resistance zone of $3400. If Bitcoin pushes, there's a high chance it will break this level. And if we exit this sideways phase, which has also lasted for 2 months, then we will have two interesting levels to aim for: $3800 and $4000. So, similarly to Bitcoin, the chart is quite similar. We are breaking the range upwards. Bitcoin is a bit ahead because it has already broken it. And we also have moving averages that are oriented upwards. 3-minute above the 15-minute, 15-minute above the 1-hour. A flow that is rather bullish with higher lows and higher highs. That is to say, within this range, we are in an uptrend. We see it clearly here with these lows and highs, as I said, that are increasingly higher. We are not anticipating the breakout either. You shouldn't try to take longs here. I prefer to wait for a break-and-pullback or wait for the breakout entirely to position myself. And the objective is to reach this zone. Personally, on Ethereum, I was asked, I don't remember if it was on YouTube or Discord, I was told, "Yes, when you were here, you told us you would enter Ethereum around $3000, in that zone where I simply drew these levels." We see that these levels that I draw, which have been there for months on Ethereum, are doing the job. You don't need 40,000 indicators to locate moving averages, a Fibonacci, support levels, it does the job amply. And I was told, "Yeah, you're not entering, you told us that, you didn't keep us very updated. What happened?" I did not enter Ethereum for the long term for the simple reason that I estimate my exposure in Ethereum to be quite significant. Already, throughout this cycle for Ethereum in 2023, 2024, 2025, I was heavily exposed to Ethereum, and I still have good exposure. So, that's why I didn't want to increase it. Ethereum remains a good cryptocurrency. I see it from a fundamental point of view in the long term, it's a project that has the potential to make a new ATH and reach $10,000. It has that potential. Now, if we look at demand, it's not there, and there are projects like this that are interesting, but there's no demand. I can't do anything about it. That is to say, that's the importance of doing both technical and fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis tells me to increase my exposure to Ethereum even more because there's real potential. Now, what I see on the market is that Ethereum is sluggish. So, will it catch up? Well, if I see something happening with Ethereum that surpasses others, that decouples from BTC and altcoins, maybe I could add, even if it's a bit higher, or do trend continuation on the short term. But right now, I wouldn't be comfortable increasing my exposure to Ethereum. If we go back lower, okay, why not $2000, $2200. But even at an intermediate level, even at a level where I told you I would enter Ethereum, I didn't do it. And it's not like, "Ah yes, I was wrong." No, it's just that I wouldn't be comfortable right now with too high an exposure to Ethereum. Now, for those who entered, good for you, well done. Now, think about taking your profits. Think about this rise, I haven't talked about it for Bitcoin, altcoins, etc., but if you are in and let's say you entered at $2008 on Ethereum, you're already at +20%. Think about establishing a profit-taking strategy. Establish levels where you say, here I'll take partial TP, here I'll take partial TP, at this level, and I'll keep a part for $6000, $7000, $8000. I'm not saying we'll get there, I'm just saying you need to have a plan. Just like when we were in this downward phase where we all had a plan to look for longs, whether it was Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc., then also have a plan to simply not look for shorts, not specifically shorts, but at least secure a part. And then BTC and Ethereum are exactly the same. We see that we were blocked at the monthly pivot point, we are making a new high, we are accepting above that level. The next short-term level is $3440, and then it's trend continuation with pullbacks on the moving averages which will simply be opportunities. So, that's it for BTC and Ethereum regarding altcoins, it's exactly the same context to consider as we've seen recently. You take the strongest altcoins, those that stand out the most, and you do trend continuation. That is to say, take PEPE, DOT, all those that have upward-oriented moving averages, strong cryptocurrencies, and keep this mindset of saying, okay, these altcoins are strong, I'm doing trend continuation. We have an example, Bitcoin Cash, it's the stone of the month, it's the stone of the week, and it's the stone of the day. It's like that. It's not a secret. If it's weak for the month, it's more likely to be weak today. It's not because it's 100% certain. Maybe tomorrow it will be at this level in the ranking. But in any case, it's not interesting to bet on a weak cryptocurrency. On the other hand, if we take the strongest, like Suisse, it's the strongest of the month, well, for the day, it's one of the strongest. Then there are counter-examples, Shilling for the month is in the middle. Today, it's rather strong, of course, but in any case, always play in the direction of probabilities. That's how you'll have a much better chance of performing. If we look at the altcoins with a slightly lower market cap, here are the strongest: XMR, ICP, Optimism. Today, similarly, ICP, XMR, there's also VT performing a bit. VT for the month, what does that look like? It's not the strongest either, but in any case, XMR, ICP, are quite good for trend continuation. WIF could also be interesting. I'm analyzing some altcoins that you asked me to analyze. We'll stop there. I have two. I have an analysis of Virtua, this crypto that is always asked about, and there's really a hype around this crypto as I told you. I think it's because many buyers are stuck. And hop, we've come back to our low extreme. It's simply a range. And as we saw, I think I did an analysis around here, every time we reach this low extreme, we have demand that is greater than supply. W structure, pump. W structure, pump. W structure, pump. And there's enough amplitude to do trend continuation or at least to position ourselves at a low extreme and seek profits at the high extreme. In any case, no long-term bottom either. If we look at the major highs, well, we're making lower highs. But in any case, it's in this location zone that it's rather interesting to position yourself to then have an invalidation below the bottom of the range and aim for TPs at the high extreme. From a long-term investment perspective, it's up to you to decide. For me, it's not a project that interests me to put in my portfolio. However, yes, this is a crypto for a period of 2-3 months, it can be interesting to own it if you have convictions and if there are signs of a bottom. You see, like here, from November to about January, it performed quite well. In 2 months, it made a huge performance. However, is it worth keeping it in your portfolio forever? No. Think about detaching yourself emotionally from certain cryptos. Just because they perform like that doesn't mean they will continue, and holding this type of crypto is not a good idea. So, either you are there at the right time, like here, if you are not there at the right time, too bad, there will be other cryptos that will perform like that. There are others that will wake up, and you don't need to make such a performance to generate gains on cryptos. Sometimes, just with +30%, +50% is enough, it depends of course on your capital. But the goal is not to say, I have a small capital so I'm looking for a 100x. No. You'll just burn your capital, try to grow it slowly but surely, consistently, and especially adopt a mindset as if you have a large capital. Because if you make a 100x with a small capital, well, if you try to do that when you have a large capital, emotionally, it will be too difficult to manage. So, adopt good habits from the start, it will serve you well. In any case, Virtua, we are approaching the middle of the range. It's not the most interesting zone. And I'll finish here with Nexo. Well, we are in a range, that's interesting. We have this range, we broke it, we are roughly at the previous range high, and we are forming a range again. And this range, the resistance zone is globally at the level of this previous range. So, there are key levels to watch, but these key levels are characterized by this range. The lower band is a good zone to look for longs. Again, here we have a concrete example where it's more interesting to look for longs at this low extreme with an invalidation if we have a daily close below, and aim for TPs, a TP at the middle of the range, a TP at the high of the range. This is the only setup I would see on Nexo because if we start to break this range downwards, it would be a rather ugly signal, unless we have a deviation and re-entry. But if we accept below, then we will have a top structure, and then we can expect to consolidate for a while. Otherwise, if we make a new high, it could be interesting here for trend continuation because when we break phases of lateralization like this, it can go fast. We see clearly here when it starts to break, we have good acceleration over 2-3 weeks, there's potential to take trades. And at that level, when we break there, well, it takes off because over a few weeks, months here, there's also potential for trend continuation. So, I would remain cautious. We are on altcoins where there can be a lot of volatility. There is still good amplitude on this range. But globally, the zone, the lower band, is a good opportunity and a tight invalidation. So, there can be setups here. However, again, you shouldn't have trouble invalidating. Don't start telling yourself, "I'm entering here to aim for $4, $5, $6." No, that's a bad idea. If I draw a Fibonacci, we haven't even reached the 0.382. If we pump hard, there's the short re-entry zone which is a good zone to position yourself as a seller in the long term, to secure profits. And here in the short term, it doesn't seem to be the altcoin with the most momentum. We see it clearly on 4 hours, we have globally, yes. 1 hour is flat, 4 hours is flat. Well, we're going above the moving averages, but compared to other altcoins, it's not the strongest crypto. So, I'm not looking for it. It wouldn't be interesting to do trend continuation on this type of crypto in the short term. So, that's all I have to say. In any case, BTC, ETH, altcoins, they are pushing well, good, it's pleasing. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to put them in the comments. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.