Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to provide an update to the bull market support band.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Also, for inquiries, you can always reach out at benjaminc.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, Bitcoin is still below its bull market support band. And to be completely honest, and I've done this in prior midterm years as well, I don't typically like to make the titles of the video say this. Uh, but a lot of times in midterm years, it makes sense to go into the midterm year sort of treating the bull market support band not as a support band, but as a resistance band. So instead of calling it the bull market support band, like mentally, I'm more so thinking of it as like a, a bare market resistance band, right? Like, so in order for the bare market to be over at some point this year, hopefully, you would want to see Bitcoin break through it. And usually, it doesn't happen on the first attempt, not in a durable fashion, if that makes sense.
Now, you'll notice there are certainly some similarities between what's going on right now and what went on in 2022, where Bitcoin essentially, you know, set a slightly higher high. It then came down to the bull market support band, consolidated, went lower, but did not go below this prior low, and then sort of stairstepped up to the bull market support band, went slightly above it before collapsing into the summer. So, if you look at it like this this cycle, you can kind of see the same thing, right? Like it moved up slightly higher high, dropped to the bull market support band down here, and it's trying to stair step its way up to the bull market support band. At which point, if it does, you know, I mean, are the super cycle guys right? Maybe. But it seems more likely that it would probably at least come down and sweep the lows from April of 2025.
Now, I got to be honest, right? I don't think we're here. Like, that's not where I think we are. I think that price action may play out in a similar but diminished way. The reason why I don't think the current price action is reflective of what happened in 2022 is for the same reasons I've already told you guys about 7,036 times over the last 3 months, right? Since October, since Bitcoin topped in early to mid-October. And the reason is that we topped on apathy, not euphoria.
Now, topping on apathy is actually sort of a sign of a sort of a later cycle environment where only the blue chips lead for a while, and then everything else is lagging, and then everything else kind of collapses down after the blue chips lose, lose that steam. We've actually seen this happen in crypto before. It just happened on a much more compressed time frame. And this is what I've been trying to communicate to people over the last several years. The same thing played out in 2019, right? Like we had this bull market. It was basically a Bitcoin only bull market. Yes, some altcoins pumped. I'm not talking about your altcoin, so get off my back, right? I'm not talking about your alt. But in 2019, some alts rallied, but mostly it was just Bitcoin. And back then, we saw Bitcoin dominance go up, right? We saw Bitcoin dominance go up throughout that rally. And then when the top was in, there was no rotation into altcoins. Like, you keep seeing people talk about this, like, al, this rotation into alts after the Bitcoin bull market is over, but like, that didn't happen this cycle. And the reason it didn't happen was for the same reason it didn't happen in 2019. Who was there to buy the altcoins, right? Like, no one was there to buy the altcoins. You can look at the social interests and see like there are dozens of us left. Now, maybe this video will get a lot of views, but relatively speaking, there are dozens of us left.
What I mean by that is if you go look at viewers to various crypto YouTube channels, and let's apply a 30-day simple moving average to this chart. Right now, all of these crypto channels, including my own, we're averaging around 600,000 viewers. 600,000 views a day. That sounds like a lot. But when you look at 2021, they were averaging 3 million a day, five times more than what they're averaging now. But Bitcoin is higher now than it was back then. But altcoins are much, much lower in many cases, especially when you value them on other things besides US dollars. If you value them against Bitcoin, they're lower. If you value them against metals, they're lower. If you value them against stocks, I don't, and they're getting kind of low. I don't know if they're lower, but they are pretty low. Depends on which altcoins you're looking at. I'm not talking about you at all.
So, you can see that we topped on apathy. We also topped on apathy in 2019. And you can see viewership just slowly dropped down, and then it all came roaring back after an initial drop. I don't think we're at the point yet where it comes roaring back. That's the issue. I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm just saying I don't think we're there yet.
So, when I look at the chart for Bitcoin and we sort of like try to decipher, is this a bare market? Is it not a bare market? Well, for me, 2019, like that was a bare market. It was. So where I think we are with respect to history is not here, it's here. That's where I think we are with respect to history. So the outcome ends up being the same, right? It leads to an eventual rejection off the bull market support band, right? That's what it leads to. But this one was a lot less of a decline after the rejection compared to this one. So if you look at 2019, the drop from the 20-week moving average to the low was about 30, a little over 30%. But in 2022, let's just take it from the 20-week, not even where it closed out up there, just from the 20-week when it got there to the next low, it was a 60% drop.
So qualitatively, it should, I think it'll play out the same way as 2022, but quantitatively, I think it'll be more similar to 2019. And the reason for that is because we topped on apathy. There's just not the same amount of retail investors here that are going to go panic sell on a lower low. There's so many people here that are just in it for the long haul. They'll go down with the ship if they have to, you know, and when you don't have retail panic selling, it, it probably just means that lower highs will be met with slightly lower lows for a while, and that you don't get a much larger drop unless you get a recession or something crazy, which is what happened back then, but it was accelerated because of the pandemic. I don't think we can look at something like this and say, "Hey, this has to play out this cycle." I'm not saying it won't, but the mechanics of that are probably not going to repeat themselves. Could you have AI replacing jobs and the unemployment rate start to go up a lot very quickly if layoffs pick up? Absolutely. But it's not going to jump to 15% overnight.
So, I think the argument is that like right now, we're more similar to 2019 than 2022, even though it might play out. They, they both ultimately got rejected and then went to a lower low. It's just how low was the next lower low. Now again, if you look at this bare market, potential bare market, again, I don't mean to disrespect the super cycle, guys, but if you look at the ROI from the highs, you can see that we're already not as low as the prior bare markets. Now, if you look at it compared to 2019, we're also outperforming, but it looks a lot more similar. Looks a lot more similar.
So, you know, will Bitcoin make it to the bull market support band at some point in the coming weeks? Probably. In 2019, it actually went, it got pretty close, and then it came down and swept this low and then went up. So, you know, there, there always exists a scenario where it like gets close but doesn't quite touch it, comes down, and then goes up, and then goes down like that. That's kind of what happened in 2019.
I can't tell you what's going to happen in the short term, right? I'm not going to sit here and pretend like I have any idea what's going to happen in the short term. As I've said, short-term price action is more akin to geometric Brownian motion or a random walk. You can't hope to predict it, and there's no sense in trying to, but I'm just showing you kind of how it played out in that 2019 move, which is what I feel like the current environment is the most similar to. It's more of a late cycle environment after the blue chip, the blue chip has led, and people are waiting for a rotation, and then that rotation just isn't happening the way that a lot of people thought. But again, that same thing happened in 2019.
Now, eventually, everything changed, but it wasn't until the money printers came back on. The money printers did not come back on in, in a, in a crazy way, and the rates didn't go lower, much lower, until there was a reason to do so. And we just haven't been given that reason yet. Doesn't mean we won't be given that reason. I just don't think that reason has yet arrived as of January of 2026.
We're going to go ahead and wrap it up there. If you guys like the content, again, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and do check out the new website, bjamincowan.com, if you want to reach out, if you have any inquiries, um, if you want to collaborate or have me, have me talk somewhere, make sure you guys check out there. Uh, check that website out. And, um, I'll see you guys next time. Bye.