Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you have energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Monday, September 15, 2025, in front of a crypto market that is unfortunately red all of a sudden. Boom, it started to correct today. We're going to see if it's just a small, gentle, temporary correction, or if it smells like something not very good. For now, the market is still in the gray, we haven't returned to fear. The month of September is for now also green, knowing that the average is rather negative at minus 3%. So, it's not a catastrophic month either, and it's less ugly than August. On the other hand, what we know is that October is a crazy month. October, in theory, according to Bitcoin statistics since around 2013, is already quite good. October is the best month of the year, followed by November, and it's good that October and November follow each other, making two good months. So we'll see if we get through September with a small +3 or -3, a small performance like that, and then explode in October-November. That would suit us well. Regarding the total 3 here, the altcoin capitalization is at 859 billion today. Well, yesterday was a small red candle, today too. Well, unfortunately, the widening of the upper Bollinger band is postponed. Since around September 8th and 9th, we had the break of the upper Bollinger band. This caused the band to rise here, and thus the price slid on it. It's very nice. Yesterday, a red candle, but a red candle means nothing. It needs confirmation. And unfortunately, today, we had the confirmation. A second red candle here. This means that the widening is over. They will tighten a bit. For now, nothing serious. Here, the altcoins are held by the Tenkan at 856 billion dollars. 854 billion, which is the average price over the last 9 days. Below, there will be the Kijun, which will be a big support at 839. The bad thing would be another candle that breaks this Kijun at around 839 billion. And that would be ugly. Why? Because we would go to see the 50-day moving average, which is around -6%. Are we surprised that there is red here? No. Why? Because in recent days, well, especially on Saturday, we saw it. Boom! Bearish divergence, unfortunately, on the altcoins, bearish divergence on the RSI, bearish divergence on the MACD. Which says divergence says, well, it corrects. It's not too serious, look, it corrected for a week, and then it went even higher. It can correct for a few days, a week, and then it goes even higher. But we're not surprised. The technology index, bearish divergence. So, where we need to be careful is with the structure. Remember, the structure made its small wave A, very good. Small wave B, which zigzags, very good. We are also happy. However, after wave B, there is wave C. Wave C, since it broke here at 873 billion, could be finished at any time. That is to say, as soon as the wave broke, the top of A here, or the beginning of B, told us that from then on, I can finish and turn around to validate a regular and go to hell. Is this the beginning of hell? We don't know. It's still possible because it's a fall, but we need more. Okay. We need more. That is to say, if tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, it falls, we will say, "Yes, it's the beginning of hell." Well, this could just be a small A, a small B, a small C, a small regular to explode upwards. That's the bullish scenario. However, it needs to go up a bit, okay? It needs to correct this. Otherwise, if it starts, if it continues to fall tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, you can well imagine that there are strong probabilities of going for the validation of a regular for a nuclear descent. Well, at some point, we have to validate the structure and go for a fall, right? That's how it is, unfortunately. Regarding Bitcoin, my dear, 114,540 dollars today. It is currently held by its 50-day moving average at around 114,430 dollars, which is just below it. Below that, there will be the Tenkan, waiting until 112,400. The bad thing is what? Breaking 112,400. That's the descent towards the lower Bollinger band, which is at 107,136 dollars. For now, well, the bulls are getting a bit tired for 2 days, it's not too serious. Here, we see that Bitcoin hasn't yet broken 117,500. Don't forget Bitcoin. I know I repeat myself every day, I'm sorry, but the structure doesn't change. Here, we have the first structure. So, I'll number it 1, small A, small B, small C. As long as it doesn't break 110,700, we could have a running or boom, it goes lower. The second scenario is if it breaks 110,700, it can take off and go much higher. But as long as it doesn't make a new all-time high at 124,000, we will have wave A, wave B, and then boom, wave C, which will also go below 107,000. So, can we say, "Oh my god, it's starting wave C, finally the validation of this running, and it's off to the 100 LP"? No, not yet. That's where it was tricky, and I'll zoom in. See how on the line, always put a break-even. This tricky one did something pretty good. You see, at first, there was a small wave A, there was a small wave B, and boom, a small wave C. Well, the problem is that boom, it fell suddenly. So, it did a bit of trickery, especially since, well, here, wave B, you see, the top here, it broke there, so it went very fast, very fast, A, B, C, and boom, reversal. Structurally, we can't blame it. The structure tells us that once I've done A, once I've done B, once I've done C, I can turn around at any moment to go for a lower low. And you see this structure, it might be exactly what the altcoins will do, a simple regular. A wave A, a wave B, a wave C that broke the top. Once validated, boom, descent below the lows. It remains possible. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm saying it's a very possible structure. It's exactly what Bitcoin did, that is to say, wave A, then wave B correcting, wave C breaking the top of A, and then boom, validation of the regular, we go for new lows. A simple regular. That's it, a simple regular. Here, it's the same, whether it's daily, 1-hour, or 30-minute, it can be a simple regular to fall. That's why we need to be careful, but we need a bit more to say it's a regular. Regarding liquidations, we can see that there is this large cluster that extends to 108,000, or even a bit below. So, if Bitcoin decides this week to clear all of that, well, it will unfortunately validate this first small running. That is to say, it will do this small A, these small B, small C to go for lower lows. If, with the interest rate cut figures on Wednesday, it theoretically explodes upwards, explodes past 105,000, we will still be careful because as long as it doesn't make a new record at 124,000, we also have this drop. So, it's the same thing every day for now, no new developments. We have large leverage up to around 112,500 for your information, but to the north, there is large leverage up to 118,000. So, be careful that the interest rate cut on Wednesday doesn't cause a big green surge up to 118, 120, and then it deals with the lows. Well, we'll see. Ethereum is also correcting. It had its small divergences and large divergences at 4950. Small divergences that lit up on Friday here. Well, it's not too serious. If Ethereum for now continues its correction and loses the Tenkan tonight at 4514 dollars, it's heading for the 50-day moving average at 4257. The bulls, sorry, I'm choking. The bulls tried to regain momentum and hop, wait, I'm just turning something off. VoilĂ , it's a bit like for those who didn't find it in the live, it was the thing that allows you to make essential oils and it goes straight into the throat. Well, the little idea. So, the bulls have lost some momentum, and you see the momentum is decreasing here, and you already see it starting to weaken. So, ETH has been quite weak for some time, not too serious for now. It was rejected by the short zone of this movement. So, be careful not to have a first wave here that does this, or then a second wave that could do this to finish after that. Well, that remains possible. If Ethereum falls, it will go below 4200. As long as it doesn't break, doesn't break 4090, we can see it do a small running, a small regular like that. Once this regular is validated, well, we'll have to be careful not to have another small regular like that for a small drop. So, can it continue to fall to go below 4002? Yes, it clearly remains possible, even below 4070. The liquidities tell us that there has been a lot to seek below 4002 for a long time, that is to say, around 4100. So, be careful to consume all of that. There are billions. We're talking about 9 billion dollars if it goes towards 4100. And besides, yesterday was Sunday, we did the long-term analysis, and we saw that there were many, many billions to seek above compared to the north. So, we're not surprised that it's falling. Solana, Solana, are we surprised that it's falling? No. Technical analysis told us about a nuclear divergence on the RSI in the overbought zone. That rarely misses. It rarely continues to push when the divergence starts to light up. It doesn't mean it's going to crash. It means it's going to correct a little bit. It can be a little, it can be moderately, or it can be a lot, we don't know. But if we are positive, it loses a little. After that, it's trying to predict the correction, but for now, well, it's the beginning. If it starts to go below the Tenkan at 224, loses the Kijun at 213, well, it will go to the 50-day moving average at 195. That's the idea. So, given the small divergence in the overbought zone, don't be surprised if Solana corrects a little with the bears slowly regaining momentum. Here, we need to be very careful because Solana, well, there's a small A, a small B, potentially a small C. Okay. So, here, can Solana go for a corrective nuclear scenario? But we need a big fall. We need a big ugly thing. Bam, bam, bam. It falls suddenly, we say, "My god, what's happening?" Followed by a small correction, and then it's off to the descent. For now, there's nothing. There's a cute little fall. There's nothing serious. It's going to seek liquidity in the south because it has a lot to seek. We see that there are large leverages to seek up to 222. You see, it's around here, this big tower. These large leverages are there. If at 222 it wants to continue to eat, well, it can go to at least 210 to eat all of that because at 5000 now to the north, there are 5000 to seek to the north as well. So, we need to be careful. I wouldn't be surprised, the market is tricky. I wouldn't be surprised if today we correct, tomorrow we correct, Wednesday we correct. Oh my god, oh dear, we're correcting, it's over. Interest rate cut, boom, big green surge, interest rate cut to go eat all of that on Bitcoin up to 120,000, to eat Ethereum up to 4008, to eat Solana up to 260, you see, 25, you see, the atrocious thing, or like, bam, interest rate cut, let's go, short squeeze first, and when everyone shouts, "Yeah, to the moon," it continues to rise, continues to rise, and then after a month, I don't know, boom, nuclear descent. Well, a possible scenario, but it's outside my thinking, okay? Let's go. Regarding XRP, XRP is also correcting. For now, it's been well caught up, it's being bought up to the 50-day moving average or 3 dollars, which is good. If it closes above 3 dollars, we can say it's holding its support because if it loses its Kijun, it could be a descent to the Bollinger band at 269. That would be less pretty. For now, the bulls are already starting to tire. It's not great. We know that XRP doesn't have the prettiest structure in the world because since it broke here the bottom of A, small A, small B, small C, well, unfortunately, the small C which is finally small A, small B, small C here, a running can be validated at any moment since when did we break it? It was last Friday, the top here, you see. That means, can XRP from now on push to validate this running and fall? Yes. Okay. Can it just drag on a bit, small A, small B, small C like that, and then boom, make a new high and go up there? Yes. Okay. Be careful because the interest rate cut can make it seek all of that. Which says, oh, today, tomorrow it falls, my god, we're all going to die, and then auto, there, it will seek 328, you see, it will even seek the short zone, 329, 330, boom, and then, well, it decides to validate the running, boom. After that, you see, just be careful because it can cause a nasty little short squeeze. The interest rate cut, since we're already starting to correct, knowing that the large leverages on XRP are up to 311, or even 317, so it could short squeeze up to 317 quite quickly, you see, in a "my god, it's correcting, 317, short squeeze, and then it falls" mode. So, be careful about that. In any case, the structure, and be careful, XRP has a bearish continuation structure. It's invalidated. The structure, the structure is invalidated if it breaks 338. A quick look at the stock market. For now, the SP500 is doing well. Nvidia is correcting, not very pretty, but SP is doing rather well. Restock too. Still the interest rate cut for the day after tomorrow. Tomorrow will be retail sales, a measure of consumption, people buying everything, clothes, various supplies, whatever you want. So, we'll see if people consume or not. The market is waiting for a decrease in consumption. Would that be surprising? Given that people have less work, that there is a lot of unemployment, well, they would surely consume less. Well, on the other hand, well, tomorrow, we understood, then the day after tomorrow, Wednesday at 8 PM, the decision of the central American bank concerning interest rates, then economic projections at the same time, and 30 minutes later, Powell's speech. It will swing. It has swung. Well, for now, the SP500 continues its rally, and I don't like that too much. I don't like that it's rallying so strongly when the news hasn't dropped. There are just potentially rumors. I don't like that too much personally. Well, after all, maybe I'm too pessimistic. In any case, the SP500 continues its rally. Look at this SP500. Look at this rally. This astronomical rally since April. It hasn't corrected since April. Bam! It's really been a massive rise since April. The SP500 has gained 37%. That's huge. 37% is huge. SP500, well, that's 15% per year, which is already gigantic, you see. Let's say 10%. Here, 37% since April, that's why it's starting to be scary, you see. 37% in the crypto world, newcomers say "What are you talking about? 37% is nothing, to the moon, x2, x3." Oh no, that doesn't exist in the... well, it exists for some stocks that explode, maybe some altcoins, but it's very rare. Here, what I mean is that the SP500 has skyrocketed too much, you see, unfortunately. And at some point, it has to correct. And the correction will be based on what? Good news, bad news. Will it be based on the good news of an interest rate cut? It's "buy the rumor, sell the news." Will it be based on bad news that will come later? We'll see. Well, my answer will be Wednesday evening. The Nasdaq is also pushing well. The Dow Jones is retracing a bit. Everything is green, really everything is pushing. It's madness. Gold too. So, in short, stocks, risky assets are pushing. Safe havens are pushing. Gold is pushing. Silver is pushing. Copper is pushing. Coffee is pushing. The barrel is pushing. Gas is pushing. Sugar is pushing. Wheat is pushing. Well, regarding crypto stocks, the strategy is not pushing in the right direction, it's not pretty. Well, Marathon Digital is not pushing in the right direction. Riot Platforms, this one is doing well. HIVE Blockchain too. Well, for those who do mining, it's not too bad. Well, the bond market is pushing in the right direction, they are buying bonds, which is lowering the 10-year yield here. So, you'll tell me, that's strange. So, stocks are pushing, commodities are pushing, safe havens are pushing, bond markets are pushing. But where is the money coming from? Well, there's one, called the dollar. It's not happy, it's not pushing. So, here, investments are being made. There are some investors who are bullish, they say "interest rate cut, it's great for risky assets, it will boost the economy, boost the entire stock market, it will boost companies." So, stocks, which are simply company shares. So, some are mega bullish and betting on the stock market to explode with interest rate cuts. Some are scared, they say "my god, recession, stagflation, I'm going for gold, which is pushing." Some say, "well, I'm scared, I'd rather go for Treasury bonds, which are pushing." In any case, the dollar is not pushing. And a quick analysis I did, but I'll do it more properly. Okay. On the left, we have the yields of all 10-year Treasury bonds: Japanese, French, Canadian, European, US, Chinese. And on the right, it's the bonds and it's the securities. So, the yields that interest us more. On the left, we see that US yields, well, it's simple. Look at the SP500. Where is the SP500? I'll finish the video with this. Since April. April, please. Little April. No, I want April, computer. VoilĂ . Since April. Ah, yes, it's here. Since April. Ah yes, since April, around April 4th, where there's the wick. April 4th is the wick. It's the wick. It's, yeah. April 4th. Since April 4th, the SP500 has been to the moon. Now, if we look at the US 10-year, ah, so the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond, the yield of the US government bond, the yield that if you buy US debt, the US government gives you the US yield, we see that since when has it been falling? But but but since January, it had a small fall, it picked up again and has been falling since May. Boom, boom, boom, boom. April 4th is here. April 4th was a small bottom. Then it zigzagged and then it fell. We see that, well, it's not directly correlated, it's not one that goes up and the other goes down, but in any case, we see that on Treasury bonds, we are in a bearish channel since around April, since April. So, in short, what do I mean by that? It's that when the 10-year, the US 10-year yield falls, well, it's less attractive to go for bonds because you have a low yield. So, investors are looking for higher yields, so they go for something else. And why do I say that? With the interest rate cut, if we see the US 10-year start to rise, because it's touching its low again from April 3rd-4th. Look at the blue line. You might not see it well, I'll try to make it clearer. Here, you see, it's touching the low. So, if it makes a double bottom and the US 10-year goes up, investors will return to the US 10-year. We don't forget that the US bond market is 30 trillion dollars. That's a lot of money returning to the bond market, and this money will come from somewhere, it will come from risky assets, and risky assets are stocks, cryptos. So, we hope the 10-year doesn't regain strength because that could be bad. Well, so we will follow all of this, of course. So, the dollar today is taking its little hit, it's normal. The day after tomorrow, it will take a little blow from the interest rate cut. That's it, friends, for this little update. Thank you for listening. I send you kisses and see you soon. Bye bye. [Music]