Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Wednesday, October 1st, 2025, and look at this, October here, it doesn't waste time. The month of September closed in a timid little green, but it's there, this green, and this morning in the news videos, you'll see it. You haven't seen it? Well, September closing in green gives you a pretty strong probability of having a good fourth quarter. I'll let you see the figures in this morning's video. It's not bad at all, and on top of that, it has rather bullish indicators. So this morning, a good little bullish video, so cryptos are not wasting time for this first month of October. You'll tell me, Foufi, it's normal, it's October, and October is booming. Ah, there are still other reasons why cryptos are doing well, why the S&P 500 is also booming, the Nasdaq is booming. Look at the Russell 600, it's crazy. European tech is booming. How is it that the US 10-year is taking such a big hit? Well, I'll spoil it for you directly. Why are the markets happy? They are happy for one thing, for a rate cut. It's convenient because the rate cut for November has a 99% probability of a rate cut, and 88.9%, almost 90%, of another rate cut in December. Why have rate cuts like this become so probable? Because today we had catastrophic employment figures. Brace yourself. US private companies, which I shared on social media, lost an unexpected 32,000 jobs in September. Well below the forecasts, the big forecasters who had predicted more, look at the figure, it must be around here. Here, they had predicted over 50,000 jobs, and we ended up with minus 32,000. So employment is not good at all in the private sector, which greatly increases the probability of a rate cut at the end of the month. And on top of that, if it stopped there, because it's already not good, we're adding insult to injury because the jobs for the month, because this was September, already not good, now the jobs for August have been revised, brace yourself, revised as usual downwards. Instead of +54,000, it's -3,000. It's not a big joke, but between us, it's becoming so funny that they have to make a comedy, they have to make a show, they have to make a TV series, something, a spectacle. Because here, in 2025, we've had the biggest downward revision in US history. 1 million fewer jobs. And now, it's going down more and more. Instead of +54,000, we're at -3,000. Excuse us, we made a little mistake. Excuse me, but I don't even know if you'll excuse us anymore. Well, so it's crazy. So, faced with figures like these, you can see that the probabilities of rate cuts are exploding upwards, and people are happy. Rate cut, it's going to the moon. Easy credit, credit for everyone. And so, faced with this, well, stocks are booming, and cryptos are booming. Well, so we're going to ask ourselves the question today: is it going to the moon? Is it going to 120, 100, 300, 40, 50, 300, the million that I would like, or is it ultimately a bull trap? Is this lightning rally only driven by futures orchestrated by derivatives that are making the markets rise? Why? Because it liquidates positions, people close their positions, and so is it driven more by futures or by people? It's driven by futures. It's called a bull trap because it can run out of steam. We'll look at all that. In any case, what we can really say is that Bitcoin ETFs, on Monday and Tuesday, they didn't waste time. 1 billion dollars bought by Bitcoin ETFs, almost 1 billion in 2 days, it's crazy. So now, the ETFs are here, they're not messing around. For Ethereum, Monday was a crazy day, 546 million, and yesterday 127 million. It's less, but it's very good. So where are we? Here, we see the total altcoins. Now, what would be good for this evening is to recover this little Kijun moving average over the last 26 days for Total 3 altcoins, 854 billion. If it closes like this tonight, it will increase the probability of a rise that continues to push towards the upper Bollinger band. So, a small +8%. But it needs to close above this yellow Kijun. If this yellow Kijun says no, we could be rejected by it, you see. Well, knowing that the bears are getting tired, it's good news, you see that the bears on the momentum are starting to get tired. Well, the bears have pushed well, but on the structure, be careful, you'll see it right away. Bitcoin, the structure doesn't change. We still have the objective. The structures have a 90-95% probability of being validated, meaning a structure that invalidates itself is rare. It exists, it's rare, because now you'll tell me that I'm also showing you Bitcoin, is it possible that we won't go lower and that we'll go straight to the moon? Yes, it's possible that it explodes to the moon directly. Well, but it needs a big catalyst, you see, to invalidate a structure. So you have to be careful. Caution is required, caution is advised, caution is my middle name. My name is Foufi Prudent. And so, that's why the structure tells us the medium-term objective, maybe even long-term in 3 months, is to break the low. But I don't think it will be in 3 months. This remains quite corrective. The structure can do a small A, a small B, and then boom, the small B ends. Do a small C that could break the low. It remains possible. And you'll understand that immediately with our beloved Bitcoin. So now altcoins are booming, which is good, but you have to remain cautious and keep your head on your shoulders. So Bitcoin, a nice green candle, we say wow, it's going to the moon, October is here. Now you'll tell me, Foufi, when can I shout "it's going to the moon"? Well, you'd first need to break the upper Bollinger band at 119,000, explode 119,000 with a second candle confirming it. What will that do? It will cause, as usual, the widening of the upper Bollinger band, and boom, boom, boom, a Bitcoin that will make new all-time highs. Well, that's the "going to the moon" scenario. Now, be careful about the structure. The structure is queen, the structure is king queen. Call it what you want. Well, since it's a structure, it's a girl, so queen. Well, why? There were two scenarios, remember. Small A, small Boom, direct small C. We'll break 107,000. That's the objective. Can it go lower than 107,000? Yes, for example, the 200-day moving average, which is a very strong moving average on the daily, is around 105,000. So, in short, small A, small boom, small C up to 105,000, the 200-day moving average, and it's going to the moon. Scenario number 1. Then there's scenario number 2. Remember, instead of doing small A, small B, small C, direct 107,000, 105,000, we do a small A, a small B, a small C to have a larger B. So a B in three parts, small A, small B, small C. That's the B. And in that case, the C would come later. Okay? For a small A like this, small B, small C. Or the B can also be in five parts, meaning here you'll have an A, then a small A, a small B, a small C. For all of that, it will be a big B. For a big A, a big B, a big C. All of that will be a big B to finally finish the big A, the big B that's done, and boom, the big C. Well, there you go. So in all this scheme, nothing changes. Everything I've told you for the last week. As long as Bitcoin doesn't break 124,000, as long as it doesn't make an all-time high, the structure will send it below 107,000. If now we have a Bitcoin that makes an all-time high, meaning we have small A, small B, small C like this for a big A, a big B, a big C like this, then it will mean we are on a running. That is to say, this gigantic B will break the top of A, so it will make a new all-time high. So we will still have A then B. And it's only C that won't go to 100,000. 107,000 will stop before. For example, the gap at 110,000. So if we have an all-time high, don't be surprised. It will fill the gap at 110,990 and it will go again. In any case, it won't go to 107,000, that's the idea. So there you go. So we're following, I'm following the structure. After that, everyone follows what they want. Just one thing, be careful. If Bitcoin breaks the high here at 117,956, goes into the short zone, and starts to fall, it will sting because the problem is that this will be a corrective ABC, meaning Bitcoin will have regained momentum, and the bears, the bears can go to 105,000, they can go below, you see, because they will regain energy, the bears will regain energy to push even lower. But yes, since you've corrected this impulse, you've regained more energy to make a nastier C. That's the idea, and on top of that, Bitcoin, in short, to summarize, the more Bitcoin lingers here, zigzag, zigzag, zigzag to make the B, to summarize, the more it lingers, makes a long B, the more the C can go down and sting. Okay? So that means the C doesn't have to stop at 105,000, it can go lower. No, so for now, be careful, I don't think we should shout "it's going to the moon" yet. When can we really shout "it's going to the moon"? When the B is finished, when the C is finished, and then we can really shout "to the moon" because we will have validated ABC and then when it takes off, we'll shout "to the moon" because it will go to the moon because you will have finished a huge corrective structure and the next step is the continuation of the trend, so the rise, so there you go. But for now, you understand well, well, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break 124,000, it can zigzag, it can even go to 120, 121, go down, then boom, it will do this. So for now, that's what the structure tells us. Regarding liquidations, we see that Bitcoin has gone to eat liquidations at the top. There's still a little bit left up to 119,000. If it wants to eat 119,000, it's right in the short zone, it's just above the last high, 119,000, you see, it's in there. So, can it go to 119,000, validate this, this little regular, and boom, do the big C afterwards? Well, yes, clearly the futures tell us that it can go in that direction, in the direction of the structure. That is to say, eat, why not, up to 119,000, 120,000, it's not mandatory, but then a small reversal to take care of about 13 billion dollars waiting around 106,000. Well, yes, look at this. It's so red that it already burns the eyes. That means it's packed with leverage up to the gap, which is around here. And I think if it goes to the gap, well, it will eat, it will finish, quite simply. If it goes to the gap here, I don't think it will not finish, better to validate the structure at 107,000. So for that, you still have to be careful. It could be a small bull trap, what we have here. Now, Ethereum. So if it closes above the Kijun at 4286, that would be good news. Even better, it needs to retake its 50-day moving average, which is its average price over the last 50 days, at 4394, and then if it reaches that, it will attack the upper Bollinger band at 4836. To the moon, if it explodes 4836 with a nice candle, it will cause the upper band to widen, and it's off to seek 5000, 5200, 5400, 5600, it will push. Well, the atrocity would be to break the lower Bollinger band at 3860, and then it's the lower widening to seek, say, the 200-day moving average around 3000 dollars, and the gap at 2250. That would be death. For now, Ethereum is trying to push, but it still has a bit of resistance at the 50-day moving average, but the bulls are getting tired, which is not bad. So it will be like Bitcoin, that is to say, can it gain a little more? Yes, it can gain. How much can this little Ethereum gain? Well, not too high, you see, because there's not much liquidity left to the north. It can eat little crumbs around 4003, 4004, so you feel that it can go up, but really not much, you see. And on the other hand, like Bitcoin, once it's finished, boom, there will be sharp drops too, which can go down, and so how far can it go down? Ethereum will go to eat around 3780, you see, 3700. There are about almost 9 billion dollars to eat at 3700. 3700 is not death, it's its reloading zone for longs. So what can it do? Quite simply, well, nibble at 4003, 4004, but it's not mandatory. And then, boom, go to seek the reloading zone around 3007, 3008, and then it can go and do something nice for a big A, a big B, and then boom, a big bullish C. There, calmly, for now. So, a potential scenario that your Foufi is giving you. After that, I'm not Nostradamus, I do what I can. Regarding Solana. So, Solana is doing rather well to have retaken its moving average today at 210. For Solana to go to the moon, it needs to break the Kijun, which is a resistance at 22, and then it can seek its upper Bollinger band at 258. To the moon, if it explodes 258, it will cause the upper Bollinger band to widen, and it's off to seek 300 dollars or even higher. Now, the downside is breaking the lower Bollinger band at 192, and then it's hello the 200-day moving average at 167. For now, the bears are getting tired, which is rather good news. We're recovering the 52, which is not bad. So for a few days, it could nibble a little to the north, you see, no problem. Well, so where is it nibbling? We'll look at the liquidities. Yes, it can eat here around 3 dollars, 3 dollars 10, let's say 3.20 if we really push, you see. So, can it seek above this high? Yes. So, it could stop before, it can nibble at this, stop before, and then fall back. But then it can break 3, and if it falls back, well, it won't fall back below 208, below 209, sorry, to take off. That's the idea. Well, on the other hand, this little wave is still corrective, like everyone else. So we can see that it has pushed well, but be careful, it could be a small bull trap. So for now, well, the S&P 500 and the Russell 600 are green. On the other hand, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, well, it's become a false green. That is to say, yesterday it closed there, it's a bit below. So you could say it's slightly red, you see, compared to yesterday. Because why did it open lower? Why did it open lower? Because some people sold directly, shutdown of the American government. Oh my god, we're going to die. So, attention, the shutdown of the American government, we have statistics for over 50 years. An average of all shutdowns, some lasted a long time, some didn't last long, one or two days. You see, so there's an average that I saw from a major financial account that said that we had an average over the last 50 years of 8 days. So, some lasted a month, some lasted a day. Well, you validated it at 2 days. Well, so we're less than 8 days. So, in short, it doesn't last very long, about a week. There you go. What else do we see on cryptos and stocks? Well, ultimately, it's very variable. Sometimes it corrects a bit under people's fear. Sometimes it does nothing. Since we've had figures, the last figures released, because after that there are no more figures. It's over, as I told you on social media, but now it's over. So economic data is suspended for the entire closure. So we have nothing left. So for the end of the week, we won't have employment figures, unemployment figures, we have nothing left. It's over now. It's over. The civil servants at home can well, have a cocktail in front of your favorite talk show, you see. Well, so there's nothing left. So the last figures we have are catastrophic employment figures that strongly increase the probability of rate cuts. So at first, the S&P and Nasdaq opened in the red with this fear. Oh my god, the government is closing. Oh my god! And then finally, the explosive figures start to come out. Yeah! Uh, employment is not good. Well, more probability of rate cuts. So that pushes it up. Well, so everything is pushing up. The entire stock market is pushing up. The gold is also at all-time highs, money, the cub is pushing up. The barrel, well, it's the least happy. Well, well, it's normal, no one is working in the United States anymore. Well, I'm exaggerating, but you get the idea. The poor people are all unemployed, and well, who says unemployed says factories are all running at a slow pace. Says, well, I'm clearly. Well, so for now, cryptos, stocks, all companies are related. Crypto is pushing. MicroStrategy is having a nice little rise from 300 to 340. It would need to retake its 200-day moving average, which would be good news. It could sell shares at a higher price and buy more Bitcoin. Regarding the bond market, well, since today we had catastrophic figures on private employment and catastrophic revisions on private employment, well, people are saying rate cut, it's going to the moon. Who says rate cut, says investors are rushing to the bond market to buy existing bonds with higher rates. So, US 10-year bonds are being bought, US 20-year bonds are being bought, and US 30-year bonds are also being bought. So that makes yields fall, and as yields fall, they look for higher yields, so they go towards stocks. Everything is linked, quite simply. And it's rather beautiful, because everything is going in the right direction. And the US dollar, which is not very happy, is red, because well, with the bad figures, the probability of rate cuts increases. So there you go. So at least everything is going in the right direction. There's no problem. I'll just put a small asterisk of caution for cryptos because as long as the structure isn't validated, I prefer to be cautious. After that, as usual, my feeling, my analysis. After that, everyone has the right to feel, to agree or disagree, you have my personal opinion. Sending kisses, and we'll talk tomorrow, bye bye. He.