Transcription
Japan is a country with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, over 200 percent. America, even with its significant debt, is still over 100 percent. This is because they borrow a lot, even though their income isn't that high. In the past, we used to hear about Japan being a leader in making chips, memory, electronics, and cars. Now, that's gone. They've disappeared. There are no new innovations coming out. In the past, Japan had them, right? Then they were defeated by companies like Pasa and Acc. After that, they were crippled. The third issue is that the population is aging. But they are not open to new people. Therefore, it's worth watching how things will change in the future.
Another interesting topic is the Japanese Yen. I heard it's been heavily devalued recently. This is because the Yen carry trade is related to the stock market. When the stock market falls, the Yen becomes very volatile. There have been interventions in the Yen market. I heard the dollar is too strong, currently at 161 Yen to 1 Dollar. I wonder if Japan can withstand this. Could Japan collapse financially in the future? Their budget isn't enough, their debt is high, and the Yen is weak. Oil is also expensive. Japan is in trouble. Does the Yen carry trade have an effect? The Yen carry trade is actually English. We should call it a "pain in the..." of Japan. It means it's a deep-seated pain for Japan that has accumulated over a long time.
Japan is a country with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, over 200 percent. They spend a lot. America, even with its significant debt, is still over 100 percent. They spend a lot. Why? Because they borrow a lot, even though their income isn't that high. What is Japan's problem? Japan's problem has been around for a long time: the population is aging, getting older and older. That's the first point. And Japan closed its borders. Yes. If you have an aging society but you don't open your borders to immigrants, do you think people will come? Who would want to come to Japan? But Japan is closed. So they can't solve the problem. They are starting to open up now. Actually, when you analyze a country, there are formulas for a country's downfall. First, debt-to-GDP ratio, or debt-to-income ratio being too high. This is Japan. Second, you don't have any new innovations coming out anymore. In the past, Japan had them, right? Then they were defeated by companies like Pasa and Acc. After that, they were crippled. In the past, we used to hear about Japan being a leader in making chips, memory, electronics, and cars. Now, they're gone. They've disappeared. There are no more. The third point, the formula for a country's downfall, is that the population is aging. But you are not open to new people. You don't accept foreigners. The United States didn't have this problem before, but I don't know about now. Because the United States used to be open to anyone talented. Now, they are not. They don't want them anymore. Therefore, it's worth watching how things will change in the next 5 to 10 years. And it's similar to this. This is similar to looking at Japan as a model. First, increasing debt-to-GDP ratio. Second, starting to close borders. They don't want to, but they haven't closed enough. So, the United States is still far from Japan. Third, but the United States definitely has an advantage over Japan. What is it? They still have innovation. This is something that Mr. Moo needs to discuss with me. It's starting to decline, but they still have to use it. In the top 10 global innovations, patents worldwide, only one company is listed. The rest are Chinese. I think these things will have an impact in 5 to 10 years. It's not that fast yet, because remember, like Elon Musk, or those who make the latest models that enable AI and all that, they were designed before. Before Trump came and disrupted the US structure, right? So, it's still a legacy. Another generation. I don't know, but at least for another period, 10 years. But if you mean, the next time, after this. This is important. Patents. I'll ask you a simple question: if the next round, suppose there's something new that shakes the world in terms of development competition, whatever it may be, then the US will be tired. There's no more technology. Because the next generations are starting to run out. Elon Musk is an outsider. From 30-40 years ago. And the CEOs, they are all outsiders. I'll call them outsiders. Foreigners. Yes, foreigners, people of Indian descent, Taiwanese, Chinese. Not many Chinese, as they've all left. And there are also Africans. See, Elon Musk. But if it's the next generation, there will be problems. This means the next generation will be weaker. I think the US has structural problems in the next generation. The next generation will be about 10 years. They are closely following Japan. Everything seems like they are copying Japan. So, if Japan has problems now, it's definitely because Japan's structural problems have been around for 30-40 years. In the past, interest rates were 0. Now they have risen. Now they are afraid to raise them too much, because if they raise them too much, their economy will be crippled again. How much is "raising a lot"? Raising interest rates. How much is a lot? 2-3% is already a lot, right? For Japan. Currently, the US is at 3.75%. Will Japan be similar to the US in the future? That's why the Yen is weak, because of the US. I think the US is deceiving the world. They say they will raise interest rates. Twice, three times in 2026. I don't believe they will raise them. Really? Yes. Who is deceiving? I don't know, their brokers, or who, I don't know. The question is, where does the market's belief that the US will raise interest rates 2-3 times come from? From analysis? It comes from their brokers. Brokers speak. I don't want to name names. Where does it come from? I don't know. Is it speculation? Yes, they point to the candlesticks. What is that? What is it? What is the point? Let me think. In May, inflation was 4.2%. 2%. June. Lower than 4, definitely. Lower. But by how much, I don't know. Lower than 4. July, lower again. Continuously decreasing. Lower again. Therefore, in the next 3-4 months, US inflation has a chance to go down to the low 3s. Or below 3. In the next 3-4 months. Therefore, if the trend is like this, raising interest rates cannot be justified by inflation. Other reasons. It must be another reason. Normally, the reason to raise interest rates is inflation, number one. Number two, maybe the economy is overheating. For example, GDP increases a lot. It needs to be reduced. Or maybe they are hiring too many workers. Is this happening in the US now? No. It's not happening. So, this reason is out. What is the third reason to raise interest rates? Maybe it's hidden to keep the dollar strong. That helps. And what else? They might want to issue bonds. Sell bonds. Yes, they need to keep the dollar strong. Raising interest rates helps. Not raising interest rates, I misspoke. Signaling a rate hike. Bonds won't sell if they don't raise interest rates a bit. They will sell. Exactly. But after they sell, and when the time comes, they say, "Oh, we're not raising them." Then what? But they've already sold. It's like I told you, this car is good. But in reality, I've already sold it to you. When the time comes, I say, "I don't know about that. I'm not doing it anymore." I think it will be like this. Therefore, today, the unlucky ones are gold investors. Because when the US says they will raise rates, gold goes down. And actually, I think the US has been waiting for a long time. Waiting for an opportunity. Waiting for what? Gold is the enemy of the dollar. Gold goes down, dollar goes up. If gold goes up, the dollar naturally goes down. Now is the best opportunity. Normally, after a war ends, gold goes up, not down. That's right. Why is gold going down? Because America suddenly became too aggressive. Aggressive. Isn't it too coincidental that just as you're ending a war, these brokers I mentioned start signaling loudly, saying, "Oh, they will raise interest rates 2-3 times." This was just a few days ago. Yes, yes. Do you think it's a coincidence? It was planned. Yes, see? Planned. I think this is very subtle. And I believe they won't raise them. I don't believe it anymore. The reason people tell me this is because Mr. Kevin wants to show off. Really? There are many people watching. Showing off. Raising interest rates is not a decision made by one person. He is just one vote out of 18 votes. Do you think the remaining 17 votes will agree with him if inflation falls significantly? They say there are 9 people who agree. I don't believe it will reach that. Not that much? Why would they raise interest rates? And the more they raise, the more people dislike it. They criticize it more. Exactly. And what reason would they raise them for? It's difficult. Honestly, if they raise interest rates, it means my logic is flawed. Or their logic is flawed. I don't know who is confused. Kevin said it's unpredictable. He tries to make short statements because he doesn't want anyone to guess whether they will raise or not. How can we guess? That's why he said from now on, we won't talk. We won't guide anymore. This is funny. It's funny. And you won't guide, and you won't tell anyone anything. Doesn't that make the market volatile? No, they sent someone else to guide instead. Who? Brokers. Yes. Did they say it? They don't guide, but brokers guide instead. And where do brokers get their information? I don't know, I really don't know. But I just don't think it's true. And I believe the US is unlikely to raise interest rates. Because if they raise interest rates, they will lose more than they gain. It's not worth it. And inflation will definitely go down. It will definitely go down. There is no reason for the US to raise interest rates. This is my belief. Let's wait and see. There are reasons. I can accept them, but whether to believe them or not is up to each person. Because some people may have their own reasons. Mr. Moo, do you think that with Mr. Kevin's appointment as the central bank governor this time, will there be any major policy changes, or will it be similar? I think it will be similar to inviting someone to be a figurehead. It won't be very different. Lowering interest rates won't be much, raising them won't be much. I think the US is in a situation where it needs to maintain high interest rates to support the country. In a way that prevents the dollar from weakening too much. To maintain its ability to attract investors to buy its bonds. Even though there's a group that doesn't want them anymore, right? And to keep interest rates around 3%. I think 3% or higher. They won't lower it below 3%. They won't go below 4%. They won't go above 4%. But I still don't see a reason for them to raise interest rates. But I believe they might lower interest rates more. Okay. But the market is signaling a rate hike. Which I think is a wrong signal. I believe so. Let's wait and see in the next month or two. We'll know what our predictions are. It's recorded. Yes, record it. Mr. Boo said it won't go up. I think it won't go up. I think it won't go up. If I'm right, please praise and commend me, just like last time when I made a prediction with you. I said, "Oh, it will end in June." Before Sunthorn Phu Day. Or before the end of June. The war will end. Thai accuracy. If so, I can be a fortune teller. I'm just kidding. I have another question. Mr. Kung accurately predicted that Tesla is the real stock manipulator, a Ponzi scheme. It's Tesla. How dare he say that? Will American citizens dare to invest in stocks? Oh, Tesla, is it manipulated? Actually, it's SpaceX. Because if we look at Tesla's P/E ratio, it's very high. When we say a stock is in a bubble, is it manipulated? Is speculation high? We need to look at whether the P/E ratio is high. Is the valuation high? Tesla is a clear example. But other companies in the Max 7 might not be. SpaceX is similar. When it comes in, oh, the P/E ratio is unreadable. It's terrible. It's very high. Therefore, I think Elon Musk is talented. He has psychology. He understands psychology. Second, he is talented in the sense of making the impossible possible. That's right, selling dreams. Back then, who would have believed that a rocket launched into space could return and be reused as they do every day? We have to give him credit for that. He actually did it. And that has drastically reduced the cost of launching rockets. 2,000 baht. And when he made EVs, people didn't believe that EVs would become mainstream. But he succeeded. So, he has at least two points. And he is a co-founder of OpenAI, partly. If we say he contributed to the growth of AI, we have to say so. Therefore, these three points make people confident in Elon Musk, giving him a "Musk premium." So, will this Musk premium be repeated a fourth, a fifth time? Not necessarily. I don't know. For example, will SpaceX achieve its dream, like building data centers in space, as planned? Or building something on the moon? I don't know if that's true. Is it possible? Is it really possible? This is the dream that SpaceX is pursuing. I have to say, it's up to you to believe it or not. So, if it were me, I would look at SpaceX this way. Don't put too much into it. Because I believe that if you make EVs on Earth, you launch rockets and bring them back, right? And you are part of AI. I think that's highly possible. But if you're thinking about doing something on Mars or the moon, what's the benefit? Will it be that fast? It can be fast, it's possible. Meaning, the possibility. Yes, it's possible. First, second, necessity. Are you forced to go to the moon today? That's right. Even if you can do it, it's one thing. What are you going to do? Why are you going to do it? Is there no place left on Earth? Our world is still vast. It's not that bad. There's still plenty of space. Many countries have vast undeveloped land. Therefore, I look more at the necessity. If there's no necessity, even if you can do it, is it economically worthwhile? That's a question mark for me. But in the case of rockets, yes, there is. Yes, there is. In the case of cars, EVs, yes. You want to. But in the case of building data centers in space. That's good. I think it might happen in the future, in 5-10 years. But if you ask me about going to the moon or Mars, why go to Mars? Because I want to live on a new planet. For their happiness. I don't know if it's that far yet. Unless you say, "Oh, Earth is destroyed by nuclear weapons in the movies. There's no place to live." Yes, yes. But if not, I still don't see it. Even if I believe it's possible, it might fail. You can do it, but it's not beneficial. Yes. Therefore, SpaceX has expectations priced into its stock. So, I think you should think carefully about whether it's worth it. Yes, if it's not worth it, it will be crazy. It will be wrong. You have to think carefully. Those who bought at 200 have already profited. Therefore, I think when people say Elon is manipulating, I don't think it's manipulation. It's called successfully using expectations to drive stock prices. And by chance, they actually did it. We have to admit that he is talented. But the next part in the future, I'm not sure. If it were me, honestly, I wouldn't bet too much on this hope. I'm afraid. And the higher the price goes, the more I feel it's not something I should expect. That's the reason why SpaceX stock has dropped 30%. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the DB Suatow channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.