Transcription
If there's a conflict between US and China over Taiwan, what Singapore will do?
Oh, Singapore will not take sides.
Singapore will not take sides.
Really?
You Well, you Singapore has American military base.
I can't speak I can't speak for the Singapore government. I've left government a long time. Taiwan. Taiwan can't determine US China relations. But Taiwan can decide does it offer itself to be used by the US in the event that the US wants war with China. Taiwan can say no I don't want to don't don't don't involve me. This is not my problem and the US will not be able to use Taiwan. But if Taiwan says yes I want to be used because maybe the US can so devastate China.
Thank my young friend Brian for running around and putting together my book launch in Hong Kong. We talk a lot about Liquanu whom he admires and I heard about him before I knew him well from Lieuanu. Lieu found reasons to visit Hong Kong every year. It was not a policy, but he always found reasons to come because I was watching him. And I came to the conclusion that he found in Hong Kong, a sister city from which Singapore could learn much. and he always met the same group of people plus a few new ones in order to get a longitudinal view of Hong Kong.
My own involvement with Hong Kong began after June 4th. I had just joined the government and I remember the high emotions in Singapore. Of course, in Hong Kong it was 10 times 100 times more intense. One evening, one afternoon before a cabinet meeting, a few ministers left the lunch for a harder with lianu to talk about what statement to issue on tenant. And Liuanu said, "If we do not speak up, we will not like ourselves." But he expressed what we read about tenanment, not in anger, but in sorrow. The people of Hong Kong were in panic and many wanted to leave. He thought it over deeply and decided that Singapore gain more by helping Hong Kong than by exploiting its predicaments. They said, "Yes, we could raid in the fire and benefit from the bounty, but far wiser to help Hong Kong during this period and gain for the long term." He appointed me to be in charge of a program to grant approvals in principle for the right of a board in Hong Kong. I must have visited Hong Kong 10 times in three years and met many people.
I remember Lee Kashing saying can you arrange an AIP approval in principle for my amate said he look after Victor and Richard but please don't require him to go to Singapore because we need him here and don't worry about looking after her because she's a millionaire. In those days I could make the arrangement just like that. I remember calling on Har Lea the son is here. Yes, thank you. And I I knew the Indians in Hong Kong felt particularly insecure and he was grateful. But he made a request that for the passi community, there are not many in Hong Kong, please offer approval and principle to the entire tribe. And we made the arrangement. I got to know Luis Cha Minga when I went to see him. In front of his office was the man standing before the tank in Tanadman. He was angry, bitter and angry and took up French citizenship. I called on him over the years. He come down the mainland never gave him up. One year he said, "I'm building a house on the bank of Sehole. They gave me a plot of land and they want me to build a house and after I die the house will be a little museum about me. I I visited the house, separate sweets for him and his wife. I told him about it when I visited Hong Kong. When he died, all the top leaders of China and Hong Kong paid him high tribute. Perhaps no author was read by as many people as Luis Cha. I wrote about him in the book to talk about Hong Kong and his relationship with China, why China will never give up Hong Kong, and why Hong Kongers who are angry with China for whatever reason will one day be reconciled again.
My own involvement with Hong Kong could not have happened without my losing the 2011 elections. I decided that night to do two things. one to close my chapter on politics and to move on in the private sector and secondly in gratitude for my son being saved by a moon barrel transplant from a Taiwanese coast guard to visit Taiwan which I could not as foreign minister. So I lost in May. In June I brought him my wife to call on venerable tongen in Halian and after that to meet friends in Taipei and happily presented my son as being Taiwanese by blood which he biologically became. So I did not know what to do in Singapore. It was difficult because I knew everybody. It's a small place and as trade minister and foreign minister I helped the successful companies some offered me vice chairmanship but I didn't feel good about it so I mowed over it luano asked me do you need help with the masik and gic I thought you want to make me an offer make me an offer I'm not going to ask for help so I said thank you I will try my own luck And at that critical moment, Robert Quark who knew me from 20 years earlier said, "Why don't you join me?" He was put to it by a mutual friend in Singapore. In 1989, he wanted to know the upand cominging politicians in Singapore and invited me and my wife as young politi me as a young politician and my wife to Shangriila for dinner. I was flattered. But more than that, I thought this was a most interesting person, a statesman. And one year I told him, I said, you know, in a different situation, you would have been in politics. He did not demer. But he was trapped in a particular situation in Malaysia because being Chinese, there's only so much you can do to affect public policy. He came to Singapore, felt stifled and hopped over to Hong Kong and never looked back, but never never denying his Malaysian past and always proud that he was an a patriotic overseas Chinese. But he could say because he was successful man. I don't think most people could could talk like that. But he gave me a lifeline. I did not do him any favor. He did not owe me anything. So I tried my luck. Nine years with him in Hong Kong. And after my wife's miraculous miraculous recovery from a deadly cancer, I decided it's time to move on, which I then did doing a scatter of small things.
During my years in Hong Kong, Ciong, whom I knew from way back, appointed me to be a member of the Hong Kong Economic Development Commission and uh get to meet old colleagues here. There were murmurss in Hong Kong, why are we letting in the Trojan horse? There were questions in Singapore Parliament, why is George working Well, not for the enemy, but but for our rival. I felt I was beused and somewhat flattered by the attention. But the two cities share so much in common. David Wilson, wonderful person. One day we were talking about Hong Kong and Singapore and he said, you know, it's like the competition between Oxford and Cambridge. Exaggerated for effect, but really sharing a profound underlying commonality. 1819 Singapore, 1842 Hong Kong, Shanghai. We were part of an old 19th century China tree and reconnected again by a much bigger 21st century China tree. And Liuanu was wise that this relationship as sister cities is much more valuable, much more powerful, much more enduring than any advantage we could take in Hong Kong's predicament. and my accidental trajectory into Hong Kong one me so many dear friends here, many of whom are present this evening for which I want to express my profound thanks as city states for Hong Kong as a special administrative region and Singapore as a city state. We are price takers in the world. You can't change China. We can't change China. We can't change America. Frankly, even the Chinese can't change China. Before he died, looking back, he said, "Well, I've changed a few things around in my neighborhood of Chongai." But there is a persistence in Chinese culture which is precisely the reason for his endurance. He is a homogeneous people.
Last month my wife and I took a fast train from Tungu to Beijing. 7 and a half hours almost 2,000 kilometers. vast distance by Chinese an equivalent distance anywhere else in the world except in North America you would have crossed different cultures differenti different uh architecture different cuisines and China is much bigger than that the Chinese People do not like they don't really like foreigners because foreigners are hard to govern. They don't mind foreigners like garnish on the dish you know a sprinkling here and there that's okay but the main dish they prefer it to be Chinese and that is why despite a vast population is 92 93% h this is not accidental this is deep instinct conf with confusions you can govern the Chinese people they know what to do they may complain They may be cynical, they may grumble, but in the end they'll comply because they know the alternative is often catastrophic. Not just for you, but for generations. And they also know that however inefficient, however degraded, everyone is better off when the country is not in chaos. And this is the reason for the long cycles of Chinese history. In my first volume, I speculated why this has come to be the case and more and more I'm convinced that it's because of paper. China had a monopoly of paper for many centuries. Can you imagine if you have paper and others only have parchment or palm leaves or stone tablets or leather or uh I do not know what else you write on papyrus paper orders of magnitude in terms of being able to record information and process information. And you need programmers who are the scholars who spent entire lifetimes mastering the script writing in Tways recording carefully everything from the first time Haley's comet was ever recorded flood levels you go to you seeen how water levels are carefully recorded over decades so that you know how to connect river systems In India the Ramaputra river in flood in Arunachra Pradesh in Assam you can't see the opposite bank is a very wet part of India yet many parts of India are dry and it's very difficult for India to bring water from one part to the other because you have to cross regions you have to cross states and people cannot agree the most important projects the Indas and Namada river were built by the British My old friend Jid Brahma asked him, "Why is Madras having water rationing?" He said, "George, do you know that since independence there's been no new water project on the Calary River? It's in between Karnataka and Tamadu. We may say the population of India is greater than China, but India is not China. Each has its own strength and weakness. China is homogeneous in a way which no other ethnic group in the world is but a long stretch and a written script which codifies meaning because it separates it from the sound. So if you spend an afternoon studying classical Chinese you can read lonely in this original and interpret it. You can't do that with ancient texts in other civilizations. So I describe China as a computational system which can organize more human beings than any other group on earth.
So when it is efficient, it is astonishingly efficient. I was listening to the long language conversation between Joe Rogan and Elon Mus the other night. It's worth watching. It's two and a half hours. A bit long. Treat it as a movie. You see there's Elon Mus puffing on his cigar, drinking whiskey. Then halfway through they felt hungry. They order a pizza. You know, pineapples with entroies. And then Elon Musk talked about his Cybert truck which has a remarkable acceleration and more interestingly you can fire unleash a Tommy gun on it and the bullets will just fly off ricochet off. Joe Rogan said what if I fire my crossbow with a hot tip at it will you try? So they adjourned to the garage. He picked up his crossbow. He fired very hard head, hardly a scratch. The head was dented. Alon M said actually design is not that difficult. What is more difficult is manufacturing. He repeated this many times. He said manufacturing is 10 times more difficult than design. He did not mention China, but I knew he was making the case because the meeting between Ci and Biden were coming up and he has a strong vested interest in getting relationship back on track. You can have the brightest minds in America and the most exciting ideas coming out from Silicon Valley, but without Chinese manufacturing, you can't mass-produce these products and make them household items. This is China. When it works, it is awesome. But when it goes ary is equally awesome which explains the long cycles of Chinese civilization. And if you are born in the wrong time that's just a bad luck. My parents were fortunate enough to pass away knowing that China was rising. That gave them great hope. They married in China in 1937 when my grandfather died and under local chucha custom you must marry within 100 days or else you wait three years. A month later local incident happened they rushed back to the Nanyang. My mother could not go back to 1978.
When I visited Taoan a few days ago they brought me to Santo. A few days ago they brought me to a museum of remittances. They have an archive showing all the remittances. This the tautoto network. There are others for the Fuian people and the Cantonese people from Bangkok, from Indonesia, from Malaysia, from Singapore. Carefully written a financial system which was not backed by litigation but by trust. You break that trust, your entire family is black ball. No one will ever deal with you ever again. China is a big drama but even at his zenith under tongue dynasty it never dominated the world China can't dominate the world and China has no wish to dominate the world because if you dominate the world then hunt people instead of 90% will become 50% of 30% and China becomes ungovernable so if you compare say the way the American Americans deal with the Middle East and the way the the Chinese deal with the Middle East. The Americans will sight one against the other. Support them, arm them, take sides. Canada look at them and say, "Look, all the best to you." So they keep things with everybody, with Iran, with Saudi Arabia, with Israel, with the Palestinians on Gaza. The Israeli ambassador in the UN feisty character criticized China. The Chinese Pure looked back at him and say we are not your opponent and stated carefully China's position and said in the end without a two-state solution you have no long-term security. That position China continues to take and it's the only long-term position for China to take. It does the same with the Ukraine. It does the same with Southeast Asia. I remember when the framework agreement between Azan and China was signed in nonpen in 202. I was there. Turongi made two remarks. He said if after 10 years the agreement is too much in China's favor, we will renegotiate. This is unheard of in trade negotiations. No country does that. I thought, oh. Then he added, China does not seek for itself an exclusive position in Southeast Asia. In other words, he knew that Sizations are promiscuous. So, a relationship with China would not lock us into an exclusive relationship with China. He knew that in Southeast Asia, our instincts are to be friends with everybody, with the Americans, with the Japanese, the Koreans, with the Indians. Even if Martians come on Earth, we will be friends with Martians. This is the instinct of Southeast Asia to threaten nobody. But if you push us too much, you'll find us moving closer to your rivals. And then when you let up, we will let up. The ties are master at this. And they balance the French and the British so carefully, they will never colonize. But this is Southeast Asia's instinct. Yes, China may be building Indonesia's uh infrastructure, but do you think Indonesia is in China's pocket? Never. In the Malay annals, which is the history of Ma, you know, Ma grew because Ming China needed the straits of Mala. Those were the days of Chunghes and the early sultans made three to four pre-built missions to Nansing. all carefully recorded flattering China. So China thought that they really acknowledged China as overlord. They did not to their own people. What did they say? Now this is a story from Sajara Malayu the Malay anov. He says the Chinese emperor was very sick and the court physicians could not heal him. So one day someone whispered into the emperor's ear to say look the only way you can cure your illness is to implore the sultan of laca to give you his youth foot bath water and if you bathe in it you will be healed accordingly an imperial envoy was sent a blacker so sultan dain to listen to the request and finally agreed to let his youth foot bath water beset to Nansing into which the emperor had his ablution and was cured and since then the relations between Malaya and China were very good. This is how Southeast Asians explain their relationship with China to their own people. And I tell the Chinese this in case they believe the flattery.
But economically between China and Southeast Asia, the economic integration is profound. This year we'll reach $1 trillion more than US China trade, more than China Europe trade, more than US Europe trade. It will continue to diverge when the same time zone more or less. One is dry temperate, the other is wet tropical equator. You know the durian the m the Chinese are eating durian by the container loss. When I was nan told they they served me a a broth durian and chicken uh tong you know I was a bit skeptical in fact horrified by the thought then gingerly tested it oh in fact it's quite a successful combination so I posted on my Facebook some of my patriots back home say yaks You know the Chinese will experiment and they will come up with new durian products and just as once upon a time all pump estates took over from rubber estates durian estates will take over from oil pump estates as the Chinese market grows. I see this coming. And with China so cold in winter time, millions will want to own homes in the Philippines and Indonesia. The way Americans flock to Florida at first and then to the Caribbean, to Mexico, Europeans go down to the Mediterranean, to the Gulf, Russians to Turkey, and there'll be millions of them. Will Southeast Asia, Asians drive China away? No. But what they what would they do? They said, "No, too much Chinese money. You better get some American money in, Japanese money in." So instinctively they will want diversification. Everywhere along the belt and road countries find their Chinese account growing. So they they will tell the Americans and the Japanese, please also come. That's why I tell my American friends. If you instead of forcing a choice, and if you force the choice, you won't get the answer you want. Just smile. Everyone will want you in. So with an economy of effort, you can achieve much more with much less. But right now the Americans and the wider west they don't like the fact that for the first time in a long time others are looking them in their eyes and saying no we don't agree with you. We have own values. They don't like that because they are used to being superior. not in a not always in an arrogant way although sometimes in an arro arrogant way but they believe it to be a natural order of things. So the Americans will come with a clipboard. They say, "Oh, Malaysia 5 upon 10. Indonesia four upon 10. Singapore 2 upon 10." And they go around the world. Of course, they are 10 upon 10. Today when they do that, we just smile. You got a little testy, you know. They they were preaching to him. So he said, "Look, you make me a 51st state and I'll do everything you ask me to do. He was telling them look you don't face the consequences we do. So China's rise is not a threat to America because China has no wish to invade America or to absorb America. But China's rise is a threat to American dominance in the world. Others will look at it and say no if China can be independent we too can be independent. India will be independent. Russia doesn't want to count out to the west in the Middle East. And I'm watching, we should be watching NBS carefully. He's doing to Saudi Arabia in a smaller way what Taoing did for China really altering the qua of the country and it will have an impact on the entire world. Brazil, Africa. I just read Luanu's old friend, the former president of Nigeria, Obasanjjo. Liquin, you used to meet him and he wanted Liquin to go to Africa. You didn't want to go to Africa. So one day he said, "Why don't you organize a seminar in Singapore? You call your friends over." So he asked me, he said, "Josh, you organized it for me." I did what Brian did for me. So I ran around got to know Obasan Joe but lost touch with him. He must be in his 90s now. He said the institutions that we import from the west isn't it obvious that they do not work for Africa. He said, "Isn't it obvious because they do not fit our conditions, our history, our culture? You know, without the rest of China, he wouldn't have said such a thing. But because there is China now and there's India, so there's also Africa and the Middle East and Brazil. This multipolar world that we're entering is being born. We can see it rough shape. But the West, particularly the Americans, are fighting it. They rather not. They rather it not happen. If they can stop China, they will try to stop China. I think it's too late. How can you? These are ancient peoples in Asia. They have been ahead of the West for many centuries. Why should not be able to why should they not be able to rise again? They're not stupid. They're not unable to organize. But in this process, my fear is the Americans may exhaust themselves. Do you have so much resources? Are your people so productive? What do they depend on? They depend on the US dollar because if I can print a dollar, I can spend. If I need more, I just print more or borrow more. But their servicing cost is going up and there's inflation. And this may lead to a crisis one day. with the way they're weaponizing the US dollar and the financial system. There will be alternatives. The alternative will not be the rem. The alternative will be what the world has always been, which is the multiplicity of currencies and species. We'll go back to that kind of a world. It be a messier world. It will be a harder world for financial analysts to commoditize products because you need cultural understanding. The idea that in the air con room before a screen you can move wrists and do black shows and bomials and so on price options is only possible in an Anglo Dutch system where they have the military might to create a depoliticized system. That was not the world when overseas Chinese kept families alive in China in the dark years. Now we will not go back to those dark years but the world that we live in the Anglo Dutch system of international finance I think will be fractured in a multipolar world we are seeing it here and there each time there's a crisis there's a breakdown the inefficiencies look at what happened after Russia moved to Ukraine the expropriation of Russian assets ass not by not owned by the government but by private individuals. I define you as an oligarch and I seize your assets in Venezuela. I no longer recognize Maduro. I recognize Bo. So the Bank of England impounds Venezuelan gold. How can you do that? Will the Arabs still keep money in London and New York? Will the Chinese keep money in London and New York? So upon at some point in time there will be a break. This world that we live in the certainties that we seem to enjoy has specific historical origins. Now before the second world war ended, Roosevelt sailed across the Atlantic into the Mediterranean into the Black Sea met Churchill and Stalin in Yaoa. They drew lines on scraps of paper and developed the the post post World War II world. On the way out on board a US cruiser, the Quinsey, Roosevelt stopped in the Suez Canal. Five days talking to Abdul Aziz. Abdul Aziz is a grandfather of MBS. All the all the kings of Saudi Arabia we're familiar with were the sons of Abdul Aziz. Out of that conversation, a few months before he died with Roosevelt, arose a critical agreement that in return for the US protecting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, oil will be denominated US dollars and that anchored the US dollar and its dominance in the world. Now the grandson is changing it. He has joined Bricks. I don't think he loves America, but he works he will work with America. He's a very intelligent man. After 56, the British left. The Americans took over the role of protecting all the G states and that's why they established Diego Garcia. It's a very secretive base, but without military might, you cannot maintain global order. 800 military bases in the world. each is horrendously expensive to maintain. Some years ago, the US ambassador in Singapore invited me and my kids to visit the USS Kittyhawk aircraft carrier. Not that the best aircraft carriers, but one of the middling ones. So before going up, I saw someone delivering eggs. I said, "How many eggs?" He say, "Two million eggs." I said, "You must have got zero wrong." because the Chinese confuse e with t one all that you know so I think might have gotten it wrong I thought about it 5,000 sailors average age 20 21 days at sea four eggs a day yeah that's 2 million eggs and there just eggs you think about butter milk everything ammunition bunker 800 military bases in the world who's paying for that we are paying for because we use the US dollar. It's a little tax on everybody in the world. And the US military is like a a public good keeping the peace in the world. But in recent years, it's clear that it's not a public good. It's a private good and increasingly being weaponized. So this great flywheel where the US military bases great aex american Americana which allows for uh the the the the the position of US dollar and the rise of sen all this one day will come to a stop and the flywheel will turn the other way and if the US cannot sustain this the implications s are more severe than the fall of Western Rome or the end of the Ottoman Empire or the decline of theQing dynasty. Every part of the world will be affected. So this is some of the ideas that I reflect upon in musings in in scattered in different parts of the book. But we are living in very interesting times not just geopolitically but underlying it driving it technological revolution which creates new stresses in human society. Thank you. Wow sharing. Thank you so much George. And I'd allow me to take this opportunity to introduce our host for the fireside chat today. Professor Lee Chang is the inaugural director of the center on contemporary China at University of Hong Kong. He's joined HKU after spending nine years at Brookings as the top man in charge of China studies and he's amongst the most renowned China scholars in the world today. Professor Lee, I know you didn't want me to do this introduction, but it gives me great pleasure and immense to welcome another wonderful, wonderful Hong Kong. are now joining us amongst us. So please um to host Professor Lee.
The floor is yours.
Well, thank you so much George for that fascinating presentation without notes and uh I would like to audience to join me again give another round of applause. I'm honored and humbled to serve as a moderator to kick off this uh fireside um uh chat portion. And um you know for me as I listened to your talk read your book last night and also this uh this morning you know it occurred to me you're not only one of the greatest or one of the most accomplished diplomats in Singapore history but also your great global thinker in our time. So it is appropriate I will say auspicious to have you to uh start this actually this is the first actually the inaugural program for the center so this is a university based think tank we have a great thinker or profound thinker with us today isn't that wonderful thank you so much as arrogantly analyze um in your book. This is a perplexing time uh in world affairs as economic disparities within and between countries and uh have given rise to anti-gloalization movement cynicism regarding regional and global integration radical populism racism xenophobia is rampant. uh on top of that even two wars uh you know uh still going on but I think that no one will be so naive to think this kind of devastating conflict will only impact and remain in these regions. Now here's my question. What have gone wrong with the world? You certainly talk a lot about um the kind of um US um policies, foreign policies, maybe even of domestic reason. Is that the sole reason? I don't want to be fair to United States although I'm very very critical about the foreign policy and the domestic device and etc. So as the deep thinker could you tell us what's the biggest reason behind all these atrocities, tensions?
I don't think uh the world is going wrong. I think the world is in a great transition from a US dominated world from a western dominated world into a multipolar world. And what we are seeing now whether it is US China relations, the Ukraine war, Gaza, West Africa, India, I think are both pangs of a new world emerging. The full shape of which is not clear, but the rough shape of which can already be discerned and is fueled fundamentally by the technological revolution which has sped up the transmission of knowledge. So that societies which were once left behind are able to pvault ahead very quickly and catch up with as it were the former masters. This is what we are seeing. We are in transition and it is not a little unlike sailing down a river and you see the river accelerating and turning white and if you have a drone you can see further. You can say oh it will slow down again. So maybe I should you can't change the river.
Mhm. But I can decide which part of the river I'm in so that I avoid the whirlpools and I turn the corner more easily and get into placid waters. But if you don't have a drone and you depend only on your eyes and you can't see around the corner, you may end up in the wrong spot and crash into rocks. So the importance of sensing technology and sensing uh historical forces at work is extremely important especially for small jurisdictions like us in Hong Kong and Singapore. We can't change the world but we can position ourselves in that world. It's like Taiwan. Taiwan can't determine USChina relations but Taiwan can decide does it offer itself to be used by the US in the event that the US wants war with China. Taiwan can say no I don't want to don't don't don't involve me this is not my problem and the US will not be able to use Taiwan. But if Taiwan says yes, I want to be used because maybe the US can so devastate China, a China in chaos, suddenly the Red Sea opens and I make a dash to the other side.
Wow.
Wow. Which was what said when he when he in his interview to Rotaroshiba that he wants to take his people out of Egypt, but you need the Red Sea to open. But if you base your policy on a wish or build your hopes on an illusion, then it can lead to tragedy.
Well, it's fascinating. Again, you challenge some of the conventional wisdom with a new perspective and u uh it all depends on how you look at the world. Um now um many people believe the economic globalization we have been very familiar with over the past four decades come to an end. You look at today's world degalization pan security politicalization and the polarization or bifurcation all you know kind of around with us. So um in your view that um I believe that you will not say that the economic integration will come to end but we do need to find the new way or new format of global regional integration. what will be and in that regard Asia or China could lead the way in term of maybe digital economy digital integration I just read that even South Korea bought a lot of things on the uh digitalized world you really China could benefit so what's the new form start to emerge because today it's live stream I think a lot of people even include business world uh uh business people will listen to your remark. Could you tell us give some indication that what will look like and in the the next phase of globalization if we call that uh that way
in in times like this practice races ahead of theory. It would take many years before economists and social scientists are able to make sense of what's happening. because events are racing much faster. It's more important at a time like this to be practical and to work on small things rather than work on big projects because big projects require stability and on your on many assumptions being correct. They're not likely to be not all of them. So it's safer to work on smaller ideas. You're in earthquake zone. Don't build tall buildings. Build smaller buildings. Build buildings which can flex and even if some parts collapse you can link them up like in the zuk in the souk you know kind of a flexible arrangement. I think into the world we are entering where there are all kinds of earthquakes which are hard to predict. It is safer to work on smaller ideas and as individuals, as families, as businesses, always assume that there'll be earthquakes and avoid excessive risk. Do small things, link up, try open up possibilities rather than lock yourself into uh single channels.
Yeah, that to me is a much better strategy because no one knows. Does he know what China will be in 20 years time? Well, he has some sense, but it depends on on where China is moving organically. Does Biden know or Trump know what the US will be in 20 years time? They do not know. We do not know. History moves according to his own logic and technology wave after wave are crashing onto our shores, changing things in ways that we could never have anticipated. I mean you talk about AI. Of course there's a lot of hype but AI will be everywhere. When I visited Huawei last month it's a very impressive organization. I'm adviser to Huawei in Singapore and not be able to visit them during COVID but decided I had to and I spent three days there and from cloud everywhere their new slogan is intelligence everywhere. In other words, everything that you do in a classroom, in an office, in motor car, a new intelligence and allow for the fact that things will change. You'll never get the future right. So work on small modules and move in the general direction.
Did you talk to your American friends about Huawei, your visit? You know, when I was asked to be the advisor in Singapore, I hesitated because the Americans are going after them and the Singapore government was wavering and I did not want to cause inconvenience to myself. But seeing the way they were bullied, I said no, I will be the adviser. I didn't like it because I I felt it was unfair and unjust.
Okay.
And having met them, they are very spirited people and under pressure they responded. I did not know that every year every of the 200,000 employees of Huawei have to do a test on transparency and security. They offer a network to companies to individuals. So they owe it to the company and individual that they must be secure in this network.
Yeah.
And the only way to be secure is you must know how the network networks you and how your data is used. So they have an entire floor where companies which join the network understand the entire system the software codes and every year they have to sign they have to take a test that they understand the principles. So I thought I never read about this in the media.
They paint Huawei as some evil organization wanting to spy on everybody. My belief is this. The five eyes have an amazing surveillance network and we thank Edward Snowden for telling us about it for which he has paid with his life. Now he has to live in the Soviet Union in Russia. They were able to get into everyone's pocket into everyone's computer every click that you made on the computer they're able to retrieve if they want. This gives them enormous power and suddenly a boy will come along whoop I can't search this pocket I can't open this door I can't access this drawer so they wanted to kill Huawei and the result is the western countries have shaped policies driven by intelligence considerations the result is they have hobbled themselves They're denying themselves bandwidth. The average Chinese today has much more bandwidth than the average American or European because of the policy on Huawei. So yes, the intelligence people will have an easier time, but everybody else pays the price and it's not good for them.
Well, uh I'm mindful about time. We will still also leave some time for Q&A from audience. So I will try to make my question short and also your answer brief. Okay. Sorry.
Uh um you mentioned about the San Francisco summit. Um for me uh it's really uh quite uh astonishing. You know I just come from Washington and um the atmosphere is so hostile to China. I think that we're already in the middle of the cold war, new cold war. But just think about that American president gave warm welcome show respect to the head of the enemy country. I mean it's quite remarkable. Now what surprised you the most or is there any surprise at all for this meeting?
Well, this meeting uh culminated many months of hard work by both sides to put relationship on a stabler footing and to prevent a further slide in bilateral relations. Biden met over three hours in Bali a year previously with simultaneous interpretation. So it was three solid hours of communication but a little balloon came over and the whole thing got blown off course. So obviously the agreement was not well anchored. So this time around much more preparatory work has been made. And what's driving it is presidential elections in the US because if there's something wrong with the global economy and they don't have China's cooperation, Biden will lose. Trump will come back. Even with all this, Biden may still lose. the 50/50 chance and we've got to work on other possibilities.
That's great. Let it come to my next question. For the two election actually next year at least two elections are very very important. When is Taiwan when is the US? Which one you worry more?
No, the Taiwan elections are a sideshow. It's not that important. Even liing Turbo to win, he can only do what the Americans allow him to do. He cannot start the war. Only the Americans can start the war. When he visited the US, they restricted the people he could he could meet. They restricted the places he could visit. And he was kept at a low profile. He cannot jump out from the American pal.
If there's a conflict between US and China over Taiwan, what Singapore will do?
Oh, Singapore will not take sides. Singapore will not take sides.
really
you
well
you Singapore has American military base
I can't speak I can't speak for the Singapore government I've left government a long time ago but in 1990 not long after enter politics the Americans were chased out from Clark and Subi by a new Filipino government and Don was worried because at that time we needed an American presence in Southeast Asia to keep the waterways open and the airlines open. So we offered the American Navy and Air Force use of our bases and they were sending a survey team. She asked me to make the announcement in parliament and a second announcement later where we had an agreement with Americans. It was very clear at the time that if there's war between Singapore, between the US and China, Singapore over Taiwan, Singapore will not be involved. Now whether that policy has changed since I left government, I do not know. But I don't I see no profit for Singapore to to do this. Yes, we buy US equipment. When I was head of air force planning, I bought bombs. I bought missiles. I'm familiar with the aeroplanes, the helicopters, and they can switch them off the Americans. And our financial system can be strangled by the Americans. And Hong Kong understands this. But be it doesn't mean that because you you need Americans, you have to do everything the Americans tell you to do. So in 1994, many of you may still remember this. There's a bunch of kids who vandalized public property. They were sentenced and they were given strokes of the rotan. One of them Michael Fay was given six strokes. Big rumpers in the US. Clinton objected appeal. So in the end we reduced from six strokes to four strokes.
Yeah. Yeah.
No. As a as a concession to the US but that same reduction was applied to everybody in that group who was sentenced at that time.
Yeah.
For three years goon could not visit America.
Okay.
Right.
So if as a small country because you're dependent on Americans and say look I I do everything you ask me to do.
You can't live your life.
Well
at some point they will say no do your worst. and calculate.
Sure.
If you do your worst, is that in your interest?
Well, my next question probably even more sensitive for Hong Kong. Could you compare Singapore and Hong Kong in term of financial economic power and give um non-diplomatic answer that how Hong Kong should improve its position? what policies very briefly think uh Hong Kong should adopt.
No, sometimes each wishes it were the other. Hong Kong has China backing it. Singapore has no China backing it and sometimes we wish we have a a tuan, you know, some something at the back to keep us going. But but we don't. Hong Kong has China and China will never abandon Hong Kong. So that sets a base for Hong Kong, but it means that you're part of a Chinese system. It means that you do not have sovereignty which Singapore enjoys. So there's a price for everything and each has the strength of it weakness.
Well, the IPO is so low. Look at Hong Kong. No, right now the Americans want to make a point that you introduce national security law, you must pay a price and they discourage funds from investing in Chinese stock and including Hong Kong stock. So, we're all affected including AIA of which I'm a director. Yeah. But think about it. Does China lack capital? China doesn't lack capital. FDI has fallen. Has it affected China? It hasn't affected China. is affected China in terms of networks and knowledge. So that's part of the Americans trying to deny China knowledge which enable it to progress faster and the deep fears are are military. So if you you see Hong Kong has to accept that in the end no let's say America completely decouples from Hong Kong and you lose 20% But what's the future? The future is still Europe, Southeast Asia, India, the rest of the world. That will not
destroy Hong Kong. Hong Kong still has a bright future even without America. Of course, better with America.
So, so well said. Um,
how much time will for Q&A?
30 minutes.
Yes.
Oh, good. You very Okay. So we will pick up some questions and please uh identify yourself and uh make your question as a real question and u so uh Daniel Bale my colleague was a fascinating
oh Daniel good to see you again which I will but I read an earlier fascinating essay I read an earlier fascinating essay that you wrote comparing the Chinese Communist Party and the Catholic Church. So which institution is more meritocratic in your view?
Both tries to be meritocratic. uh one in a spiritual sense, the other in the intellectual sense. Both governs through hierarchies, both justifies discipline through moral principles, both makes boring speeches where information is in the nuance. In other words, the delta between the speech and an earlier speech. Both had corruption problems. Both are trying hard to overcome them. Both have succeeded to a point. Both face long-term challenges. Both are fallen. Both are human. Uh this is Mr. Daniel. Yes, that is also another Daniel,
right? Hi. Uh, hi. Uh, Mr. You, uh, this is William from SEMP as a Singaporean working in Hong Kong. Welcome back to Hong Kong.
Thank you.
Yeah. My question is you took care of the AIPs for Hong Kongers in
89. But this time in the 2019, uh, where many of the Hong Kong observers were saying that this is quite similar, uh, a bit of similar situation, but Singapore actually reframed of doing similar things instead. Uh, UK and, uh, some other countries actually offered live book programs and all that. And can you comment on why there's a a distinct difference, um, on this time Singapore's handling of, uh, this situation? Thank you.
>> The 2019 disorder and the negativism felt by Hong Kongers after that were very minor compared to what happened after 1000. And at that time, Singapore felt you had to shrub up Hong Kong. This time around, when, uh, western countries offered places to Hong Kongers, the underlying motivation was very political. They were trying to make a point, and unfortunately, many young Hong Kongers, or many Hong Kongers, fell for it. Many will regret it, and many will come back. But, uh, no, Singapore doesn't want to be part of this because it became very political. But of course, if you are talented, you're hardworking, you're always welcome in Singapore.
>> Yes. Yeah, please.
>> Karen.
>> Thank you, Mr. Yo. I'm Emily La, the Democratic Party. I don't know how much longer my party can exist. They, they say we learn from Singapore. M. Uh, I want to ask you, Mr. You, about the rivalry and competition between Hong Kong and Singapore. Some of my mentees told me recently because they have a lot of contacts with Singaporeans, and they said Singapore is very, very keen to squash Hong Kong because Singapore wants to be number one. And now, of course, you've surpassed Hong Kong in some aspects. Is, is this your understanding that now your government, your people are very keen to see, because now we are very not sick, but we, we have a lot of trouble. So, is it a good opportunity for Singapore to see, ah, now Singapore will rise to the very top and Hong Kong will never, will never be number one again?
>> Not at all. Not at all. In fact, I would say Hong Kongers are more bordered by Singapore than Singaporeans by Hong Kong because it really doesn't matter to Singapore, but Hong Kong feels it much more keenly. And I say this without emotion because I'm on both sides, so I, I can sense this for myself. People in Singapore don't talk very much about Hong Kong. People in Singapore are blue, not yellow. Yeah. Overwhelmingly blue. Yeah. I also like your reference early on in your speech, talk about the Cambridge and Oxford. I think that that's a good, good metaphor or, you know, refer to the these two cities, right? Is that what you mean?
>> No. No. I think the reason is because Hong Kongers feel a sense of insecurity, and that causes them to look at Singapore as perhaps a reason for the insecurity.
>> Yeah.
>> I don't think Singapore has anything to do with it.
>> Ah, yes, please.
>> So good to see you in Hong Kong, George. Uh, my, I have a few questions, but can I, uh, ask you, what is the biggest worries you have for China? I mean, China has been in, um, in pretty, uh, dim light in the western media. Uh, what is your biggest worries about China? Number one. Number two question, Taiwan. Are you worried about any, uh, conflict across the street? Uh, because it's seen to be the biggest flash point in the world. Thank you.
>> Um, John Fairbanks years ago described China as a bureaucratic state. It is governed by a meritocracy selected through examinations. This a scholar mandremes. When the system works well, it's awesome. The key is to prevent corruption and self-serving behavior. So corruption is, is an inseparable part of Chinese culture because of Confucius. Giving gifts is but a relationship. So every year for Chinese New Year, think of the number of red envelopes for lys. You know, think of all the stresses on women in China. Why do you do this? To transfer piddling amounts of money is to establish relationships. And beyond a point, the gift becomes corruption. So you can never get rid of corruption in Chinese society, and people are always looking at quansi, you know, who knows whom, and so on. If you go the direct route, you're likely to get a no, but if you go through a father or brother or friend or someone has done a favor, then you can get a yes. This is throughout Chinese society. So Xi Jinping to me is a great man because no one believed that he could have tackled corruption the way he did. When I was a visiting scholar after I lost the elections in Peking University, I gave a speech at the Guang Tashu, the National Defense University, and I met the major general in a private meeting. He said, "China has no hope." He didn't explain to me. I could see the sadness and despair in his eyes. Later, I realized promotions were being bought in China. The higher you are, the more you have to pay. This is like the end of the Qing dynasty. And the corruption was everywhere. It was egregious. If you say, "Well, I'll give $100 million." They say, "What? What do you take me for?" It became blatant among the princelings. So when Xi Jinping came to power, when he became, they said, "If you don't tackle corruption," no one believed him. They thought it was just platitudinous words. But when he became, went after with the military behind him, and then turned around to go after the P, and more recently, after the Communist Party youth league, there are no more factions in China. They're all thinking sub-factions now, right? No one believed he could have done this. Can you imagine if corruption had not gotten better, but gotten worse since say 2013? Where would China be today? That would be the China the Indopacific command would love. That China they can always handle. No problem. You see, but this China where corruption has to be discreet and in the shadows, that is a dangerous China for them.
>> Well, uh, certainly that for some people, President Xi is a controversial or complicated figure, but I will say he is also the most consequential leader at this moment. So my answer to your question is, what is your greatest worry is the corruption index. If the corruption index goes up in China, then it's the beginning of a long decline.
>> Based on what you said, do you think that he saved the Chinese Communist Party 10 years ago, 11 years ago?
>> I think he saved China, even more important. Now, I will go back to your question, but before that, is any student want to, are you a student? Please let you go first. Yeah. Hello. Uh, my name is Josema Atawat. I'm a student in HKU. I'm a student from Thailand. So there are many young students in the rooms. So do you have any piece of advice for young people to maneuver the uncertainty of the world and in the foreseeable future? Thank you.
>> Uh, hold on. Uh, yeah, this one. There's another student. Could you also raise your question? Yeah.
>> Hello. I'm an, I'm an exchange student from the Netherlands, actually. Thank you for your talk. And I would like to ask you, my grandparents, my parents, they very much looked up to the United States as a role model after the Second World War, but for my young generation in Europe, it is different. Um, and you have mentioned several political issues, whether it's technology, foreign policy, um, where we still see this US dominance, US-led world. And, um, I personally believe the European Union and European countries have to mature, and we have to build our own foreign policy independently from the United States. And how would you assess current US, current European foreign policy, and do you think we are able to completely mature and become an independent power in the 21st century? Thank you.
>> Two questions, excellent questions. The, the first question, advice to a young person is to learn to read, to understand the world. Don't be too quick to adopt causes and to judge what goes on around you. First, seek to understand. And the world is changing. Be thoughtful. At the same time, amidst all these swirling changes, do not forget what is the essence of being human, which is relationships. So never lightly undermine the family, because it is the family that transmits knowledge. The most difficult computer language to learn are human languages. Human languages. The most difficult. Each of us is a computer or a chip. What links us together is language and culture, and it's a lifetime of programming. So the family is the most important in that transmission. Look after the family. Do not believe the AI or whatever can replace the family. And it sometimes means appreciating suffering, human weakness. It's so easy to discard people today. You can do a test and say, "Oh, likely to be Down Syndrome. Abort. Oh, low IQ, but maybe I should abort." These choices are now within our capabilities. If we just do what is convenient, one day it's our turn to be discarded. Then everybody turns inverse and becomes selfish. Then human society breaks down. So never forget the basics, which is human relationship. Be respectful of others. Learn from others. Understand that the world is changing. The second question on Europe. Macron, a few years ago, said that NATO was brain dead. Then with the Ukraine war, NATO has become alive again. But I'm not sure whether the transatlantic alliance can remain this strong. Because having, you know, it's like a martial arts exponent. You know, you think you can break the wall. So you give it all you've got, and the wall doesn't break. All that force feeds back into you and creates internal injury. So after all that effort, they are not winning in Ukraine. The result will be domestic upheaval in every European country and increasing resentment that they were being forced into positions by the US. If you are a German, you face much higher energy costs now, right? And you think that the pipelines were blown up, either by the Americans or by friends of the Americans, and you're not even allowed to talk about it. No wonder the AFD is gaining its strength. And I think in many European countries, you will find the right-wing parties gaining strength, and the European, the transatlantic link will weaken. And if Trump comes in, it will weaken even further. Then Europe has to decide how do we look after ourselves? The Franco-German alliance. Should Europe expand or should we consolidate around the core? China wants Europe to succeed. China wants the Euro to succeed because it wants Europe as a separate pole, separate door, close to the Americans. And the Europeans, if they play their cards right, can maintain the peace in the world. If the Americans move too much, the Europeans can say, "No, we disagree." This will stop the Americans. If China is unreasonable, the Europeans should move closer to the Americans, then China will have to change policy. So Europe is a balancer and can maintain peace in the world for years to come. This requires leadership, and at the core of that leadership is a Franco-German alliance. Neither well, Fran Macron. Macron. Macron is an intellectual. He's a philosopher, but he hasn't got a base. German politics is fragmented. And so we see no visible strong European leadership today, nor in the immediate future.
>> Great. Thank you for your patience. Please.
>> Uh, Basel Huang, lawyer, Singaporean. George, thank you for the talk. Always great.
>> Where are you? I'm right here.
>> I'm sorry.
>> Yes.
>> Thanks for the talk. Um, I like your analogy about the drone above the raging river. I'm here tonight because to me, you are either that drone or the operator of that drone. Um, and so also for the benefit of our young people behind us. Um, you talked about the rough shape of the world that we can already start seeing. Uh, what will that shape be in five years' time in your mind? And secondly, if the trajectory of things goes as, as it's going right now, I surely the US must see it. Um, what do you expect the strategy for countering it or reacting to it will be over the next five years? Thank you.
>> I think China will continue to grow slower. Uh, if there's a major global economic crisis, when that crisis is over, China will be number one. So you notice after every economic crisis, the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, after each crisis, it moves ahead because it's the least leveraged. During COVID, people thought that China had done badly, but in fact, China did the best. They had the fewest deaths, and they accumulated huge surpluses. So if you cast your eyes in the next five years, I think China will, will still be okay. China, Southeast Asia will be more integrated, and there's a good chance that the region will remain stable. The wars will be distant wars for us. Let's not get ourselves needlessly entangled. But do what is right. Don't take liberties with ourselves. Don't do what some countries do, which is work from home. You know, people have become lazy.
>> Yeah. No, take, take life seriously. If, if you spend all your time on hobbies, it means you're not doing your work. Yeah. So, I would go back to basics. Strong families, social order. Look at the streets. Are there homeless people? Are there people who are neglected? Public cleanliness. These are all indicators of social morale and group health. So the Japanese, despite doing poorly, I think at the atomic level, they're still very resilient because they maintain a very high level of internal discipline. But many societies in the West are breaking down.
>> Okay. Uh, yes, please.
>> How much time we have? Uh, Ryan.
>> 15 minutes.
>> Five.
>> Yes.
>> Okay. Good.
>> Hi, I'm Eddie Tam. I'm a local fund manager here. Um, very compelling arguments about the emerging multipolar world, but sorry, I'm a numbers man. So I've seen the latest figures this year, US will contribute to 45% of global growth, and then five big emerging markets like, uh, uh, India, Brazil, Poland, etc., will contribute 50%. China, for the first time in over 20 years, zero. In fact, it's negative. And then as to, you know, the weaponization of the dollar, yeah, many people don't like it and so on, but, uh, Argentina just had a recent, uh, elections. I think the new president has promised to dollarize his economy altogether. So I think this narrative doesn't seem to be so one-sided. Um, so I think also, US share of global GDP has been very stable over the last 25 years. Yes. Uh, it's, um, you know, declined from over 50% after World War II to now about 25%, but has been stable, and it's been growing at the expense of Europe and other countries. I mean, so, um, yeah, any comment on that? I mean, we understand your argument, very compelling, but is it really reflected in the numbers? Is it really reflected in reality?
>> Well, uh, George will answer your question, but I just wanted to say one thing. Your number statistics differ significantly from the IMF's recent report. So I do not know how to reconcile.
>> Please.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I, I find it difficult to accept your numbers that China is contributing zero to global growth.
>> Well, okay. That goes up and down. But if you look at it in PPP terms, China contributes, continues to contribute a large portion of global growth. I'm not saying that China is, is doing swimmingly well. There are a lot of problems in China. Uh, endless, endless imbalances. But if you visit different cities as I have in the last few weeks, I can't, I'm not an expert, but just visual observation. You look at whether people are happy, whether people are spirited, or they're angry and bitter, whether they, they get, they lose their temper quickly, whether they're hardworking, whether they are frugal. I think the Chinese people still have the basics, right? An obsession with education, with the pursuit of knowledge, with families. So if you go down to that level, I think you have a better reading of the health of the society. You can, the numbers may suggest that you do well, but if the people are hedonistic, they want to enjoy life, they have broken families, children are not looked after, large parts of the population are just neglected as if they're not even citizens. How can those societies do well?
>> Well, uh, you know China so well. You recently visited China. Do you see lack of confidence among elites? Could be a problem. You're all worried. Uh, Xi Jinping has, uh, has kept a very tight leash, pursued corruption. So the business people are worried. It's down. So the mood is not buoyant.
>> Unemployment is a problem in many cities. But China has a lot of fiscal and monetary flexibility because of the surpluses it has accumulated. In all the major countries, interest rates are trending up, and China is trending down. It's trending down because China did not print money during COVID. China collected money.
>> Please.
>> Oh, you first, then you. Okay.
>> Janet Power from the Asia Business Council. Uh, my questions are, can China stand a weakened Russia, and can America stand a weakened Israel? On Ukraine, China's position is like 60-40, sometimes 55-45, then it became 60-40 again. China doesn't want Russia to collapse because if it collapses, then the entire force of the West will be on China. So China has a vested interest in keeping Russia going, but at the same time, China does not want to antagonize Europe. So, and it doesn't want to get involved in this intra-lavic conflict. So it takes, it triangulates a very precise position of having weight on both legs, but a bit more on one than on the other. With Israel, America, much of it is as a result of the Jewish lobby and the support of Christian Zionists. So this, this is a question about the US political economy and how it operates, but I think it's a disaster, the Gaza war for for America, because in the support of Israel, they have, they have been viewed negatively in most parts of the world and by most people. It's too much. People feel in their deep, in their hearts, that this is too much. It's too cruel what the Israelis are doing, and that the Israelis can only pursue this course of action because of American support. And we all know that in the end, Jews and Palestinians have to live side by well, live side by side in that land, bless in two, two states where each can pursue its own destiny.
>> Well, Singapore is a multi-ethnic nation. Has been quite successful. Do you have anything to share with us in that regard? Because it's really a wonderful story, successful story in Singapore.
>> Singapore is not intelligible in itself. Singapore is intelligible only as a node in the regional global network. So to understand Singapore, you have to understand the network in which Singapore is a node with synaptic connections to different parts of the web. This is Singapore. So if you try to reduce Singapore to a Keynesian analysis of C plus I plus G, when in fact, what explains it is X minus M, not C plus I plus G. So I find many analyses of Singapore limited because of the concentration of Singapore. It's not intelligible in itself. And the Singapore government has not that much flexibility. It's got to operate within the spaces afforded it by a larger environment, and it cannot create those spaces, but it can find those spaces.
>> We probably only have five minutes left. You first.
>> Thank you. Uh, Mark Michaels, and I work with international companies and with students as well. Thank you very much. I want to take you back to Singapore again, which you are an expert on, and Singapore is a government that works as many of us think. It's had a, had a great run, but you said the world's in transition, and as Chief Justice Lee said, Singapore's in transition too, including politically as well as in other ways. What do you see going forward, given the multipolar world and how it's developing? What do you see as the two or three opportunities and challenges for Singapore going forward?
>> Okay, great. We probably pick up one or two more questions. Uh, I want to give the student. Yes, the young lady. Yeah, please.
>> My name is Yuan from mainland China, and now I'm studying in Hong Kong. So my question is, how do you think about the Belt and Road Forum that was just held last month in Beijing, and what do you think the Belt and Road policy by China will impact on the world in the future? Thank you.
>> The last question. Are you a student?
>> Please.
>> Okay. Thank you. So, being a student, naturally, I'm very young and probably naive, but I've actually looked at the life and times of Lee Kuan Yew. I mean, I was eight when he passed away. So having looked at Lee Kuan's life, I've come across a story of Kissinger and how Kissinger said that actually, when he was visiting Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew would have meals, you know, meal plans prepared. So naturally, we can see that not only Lee Kuan Yew was forward-thinking, but he was also very meticulous. So my question is, what are some of the biggest takeaways that we can take from Lee Kuan Yew's not only political but personal way of thinking and personal philosophy?
>> Great.
>> Okay. The first question is, what are the opportunities for Singapore in the future? Uh, it is a world in flux. Uh, we know China will become more important. So we've got to think about opportunities in China. I don't think we can compete inside China with Chinese companies. But China meets the world in a million places. And in those million places, Singapore, in some of those places, Singapore can play a role between China and Southeast Asia, between China and the West, between China and, say, Chinese communities elsewhere. And these opportunities will have to be discovered by the private sector. So Singapore's approach, like Hong Kong, is to have to be rooted in multiple civilizations. For Hong Kong, it is China and the world side China. For Singapore, it is China, Southeast Asia, India, the US, Europe. And if we are rooted in multiple civilizations, then there are many arbitrage opportunities for us. Whether it's in technology or in trade or in, in, in manufacturing, we'll always be able to make a living by moving to the boundary, because where there's a boundary, there are always opportunities. If I may answer the question on Lee Kuan Yew before going to the Belt and Road. Um, my sense of Lee Kuan Yew is when he relates with a person, he first thinks about the power relationship. With Kissinger, it is an intellectual relationship, and he knows that through Kissinger, he has some influence in America, and Kissinger knows that Lee Kuan Yew has some influence in Asia. And knowledge. So they learned from each other and they communicated until maybe a year or two before he died regularly. Yeah. So Lee Kuan Yew is quite selective. The people whom he cultivates, he has very close relationships with Kissinger, with Helmut Schmidt, with George Shultz. These are his old friends. Uh, with the, with Chinese leaders, it's always a bit more formal, and he kept up his learning of Chinese in order to be able to communicate effectively with Chinese leaders. With fellow Singaporeans, uh, you don't want to be his enemy. Uh, I, I watched the way he went after some of his opponents, and nope. You don't want to be his opponent. Yeah. You see, we had a difficult relationship with the foreign media. The Far Eastern Economic Review, The Economist, when they circulated in Singapore, we had an economic hold on them. So in the end, they played ball because they needed revenues. But there was in London, in London, there was an op-ed writer called Bernard Levin. So he used from London to throw stones at Lee. We sent our replies. The London Times refused to publish. So he knew the chairman of the BBC, Michael Hastings. He told Michael Hastings, "Can you give me airtime to debate Bernard Levin in London?" But not letting chicken out. So he demolished himself by being afraid to debate with Lee Kuan Yew in London on the BBC. But Lee did not stop there, because I was with him when he was given the key to the freedom of London, and we were all putting on a white tie and had difficulty with starch collars. It was already all dressed up and ready to go. So I asked his assistant, "Where's he going?" "He's going to the BBC to do what?" "To talk about Bernard Levin and how he chickened out." So this was his amuse-bouche before dinner. You see, that's how implacable he can be towards his opponents. But he was not a sadist. When, when he has achieved his political purpose, he lets go. So there was a political detainee who was his rival, Lim Chin Siong. He had a nervous breakdown in prison. And I was told Lee Kuan Yew spoke to the doctor and asked, when he was being, when he was going to Europe, he said, "Can he come back into politics?" The doctor said, "No." When you left, left the issue. In other words, you are no longer a political challenge. Well, there's no, there's no need to be vindictive. Yeah. So I would say he understood power, but he used power with economy. And the last question about Belt and Road. The Belt and Road is nothing new in Chinese history. Every time China was in the ascendant, it had a much larger economy and dominated the neighborhood, and naturally everybody wanted trading advantages, whether it's merchants from Loochoo or Nagasaki, from Malacca, from South India, Arab merchants, because there's money to be made. And because there's money to be made in trade, so the trade routes open, whether it was the old Silk Road or the maritime Silk Road or whatever. So since this new China, trade is very big, and you need connectivity, it's good for countries to coordinate their master planning so that the bridges lead to the right places, the highways join, the railways join, the custom procedures are simplified, cities are planned along certain belts. This is the essence of the Belt and Road. China has the financial resources, the production capacity to build infrastructure much cheaper than others. That's what it is. From time to time, there are political problems. So it meanders around these problems and finds alternative routings. But it is a direct result of China becoming the biggest economy on earth, the most productive economy on earth. And it will, it will be extended throughout the Eurasian landmass and increasingly in Africa. Africa is benefiting hugely from Chinese infrastructural development, and it will transform Africa.
>> Well, uh, it's fascinating that, uh, you know, in your formal remarks, you mentioned Winston Churchill. Um, as it reminds me, um, a quote by Winston Churchill when he talked about the difference between a pessimist and an optimist. He said, I quote, "The pessimist sees calamity in every opportunity, and the optimist sees opportunity in every calamity." You are an optimist based on your, based, based on your remarkable successful, remarkably successful career, based on that wonderful book. I only read volume three, but I also will check the other two volumes. Based on your really wonderful, um, conversation with our audience.
>> I think there's a good chance.
>> Yes.
>> That we can keep the peace in our region for another generation. There's a good chance of it.
>> And if, if we can keep that peace,
>> Singapore and Hong Kong will flourish.
>> Absolutely. That this region really had four decades of peace. But before that, it's some of the devastating wars,
>> killed millions of people locally, and also Americans. I think you remind us the importance of maintaining peace. So, um, your talk is, you know, it's a for hope. Uh, it's very much in line. Let me do some, some commercial myself, and I said at the beginning, this, I hope this is an auspicious beginning. It is, and we will have many events. And actually, the formal official launch will be December 15th in this room. December 15th, we will feature about 25 internationally well-known experts. They travel around, uh, to Hong Kong. And Dr. Kissinger and a senior Chinese leader, President Mingio, and also your friend John Huntsman will send us videos. They are preparing the videos now, actually, in the next few days. So, it's really wonderful to have these kind of people, you know, to support us. But also, um, December 11th, another warm-up event, we will feature Professor Bill Kirby, the former dean of liberal arts at Harvard, a leading figure on education, international education exchange. He will be on this campus, have a dialogue with my distinct colleague Daniel. It should be a fascinating talk about how universities play a bridge at this difficult time. So George, you grace us, you inspire us, you really, you know, um, in many ways, I'm very excited also the possibility you're not only affiliated with the, the Global Asia Institute, Institute of Global Affairs at the at, um, you know, Hong Kong U, but, you know, that, uh, the Provost and I send you an invitation, hope that you will come here more often and sometime spend maybe a few weeks with our students. We can benefit their insights. Your wisdom is truly unique, and you provide much better kind of narrative, uh, that the narrative is missing in many discourses. I hope this video will be more, uh, read in other parts of the, uh, the world, particularly in my, you know, adopted country, the United States. I want the audience to join me again for that wonderful presentation, and thank you so much. Thank you so much.