Transcription
It's about 80% cash right now in my portfolio, which is literally unprecedented. I have never done that before. I am absolutely not predicting the crash of 2026. What I am saying is that if we do get an event like that and you are liquid, there's potentially an opportunity to add a zero to my net worth here if I play this right. And that's what I'm going for. There are some very spooky similarities. There is a very sharp pre-peak rally, which makes sense. There's a sharp fall off. There's something that may be a dead cat bounce. If that pattern repeats and we got a 50% retreat in gold, that's sub 3,000. That's high 2000s. And the gold stocks, if we went that low, I think they would just absolutely get creamed and I might be able to buy for nickels and dimes on the dollar.
All right, Logan, last time we spoke, you correctly called the rally in copper, up 45% at its peak and in uranium up over 33%. So, what are you seeing as the next big opportunity in the commodity sector?
Now, >> I would absolutely be buying that with both fist. I'd have a garage sale. I'd give some blood. That would be a once in a generation type buying opportunity. >> This is the real story with Michelle McCori. Hello, I'm Michelle McCori and this is The Real Story. Thank you for watching. My next guest is one of the most respected voices in the resource sector and when he joined us last time, he was spoton with his bullish calls on both copper and uranium. Well, now he is sounding a warning. Lobo Tigra believes that the risk of a major market event is significantly higher than normal. And while many investors remain convinced that gold, silver, and mining stocks are headed much higher, Lobo is urging caution. He's preserving liquidity and preparing for what he believes could be an extraordinary buying opportunity if markets stumble. Lobo is known as the due diligence guy. He is the founder and editor of the independent speculator where he provides in-depth analysis on mining and natural resource companies. So what is he seeing that others are not? Has gold already priced in much of the bullish story? And where is he finding opportunities today? Let's ask him. Lobo, welcome back. Good to see you. >> Always glad to be with you, Michelle.
>> All right. Well, Lobo, let's uh kick it off with a comment that you made recently that caught my eye. And you recently suggested that the probability of a major market event feels materially higher than normal. To quote you, you said compared to a background radiation level of 5% risk of a major waterfall event in the markets, it feels more like 20 or 30% this year. Now, what you're essentially saying is that the odds of a significant market event are much higher today than you would normally consider. So, let's start there. Break that down for me. What are you seeing?
>> Sure. Um, maybe I should first put the caveat in there that I am a due diligence guy. I'm not actually an economist. I just play one on TV, I like to say. But maybe that's for the better because economists seem to always get these things wrong. Um, but it's very important the way you framed it, Michelle, because I am absolutely not predicting the crash of 2026. What I am saying is that if we do get an event like that and you are liquid, as our friend, our mutual friend Rick Rule likes to say, when events like this come, if you're illquid, you get taken advantage of. And if you're liquid, you could be the one taking advantage of the opportunities. So, what I'm saying is there's enough of a chance for me to want to retain more liquidity than I normally would. I sold a bunch of stocks recently. Stocks, not metals. For the people to hate me for for giving up too soon or betraying the cause, I I accumulated >> so gold mining stocks just not physical metals to be clear. >> Right. So I am sitting on a large pile of cash right now. Not physically, but for me uh I I never have this much cash. And the reason for that is because I think even though I don't know it will happen, there's enough of a chance that if it does, then I want to take advantage of it. And it it's kind of funny. People are mad at me. I've gotten a lot of push back from people. Oh, you sold too soon. You know, our favorite metals are going to the moon, whatever. But the but the logic is I I bought years ago. I made a lot of money. I had a large unrealized gains. So I realized those gains. I have the win. I have the money in my pocket. And now I have the ability to buy the next big opportunity to buy low. This is key. I am not saying that gold and silver or any of our favorite metals can't go higher from here. But the idea is to buy low, sell high. And if we're going to look at a a you know a materially higher chances of a great opportunity to buy low, then I want to be liquid. And that very same thing, we've seen this before, like even in in the flash crash of 2020, let alone 2008 or before you you get this big liquidity event and even gold itself will sell off immediately crunch. So it doesn't do to wait for it to happen. if I wait for for the event to happen and then decide to take some profits somewhere else and rotate into the new well, you know, I I'll be selling at lower prices. So, I realized a bunch of gains. I now have much more cash than I normally do. It's about 80% cash right now in my portfolio, which which is literally unprecedented. I have never done that before. I I feel antsy if I get close to 50%. My I want my money working for me. Um, but but the main point is as you framed it, I'm not saying, you know, woe is me, doom and gloom. Get out, get out. Everything is terrible. I'm saying there's potentially an opportunity to add a zero to my net worth here if I play this right. And that's what I'm going for.
>> All right. I hear that you're not necessarily calling for a major crash, but you are saying that you are more worried than normal that there will be what you called a waterfall event. Now, there's always reason to be worried, but you're saying that things feel different if I'm understanding you correctly. So, what are the signals that are causing you to raise your level of concern? What are the risks that concern you the most right now?
I need to be careful in saying this. Um, the occupant of the White House today, whether you agree with his agenda or not, love him or hate him, is clearly an agent of change. I think we can agree on that. And uh, you know, change is disruptive. And sometimes it can be managed carefully and gradually or implemented you know with with laser precision and sometimes uh it's done with a sledgehammer and things happen a lot more suddenly. I I think we're looking at much more of the or maybe sledgehammer was the wrong metaphor maybe the doge chainsaw here metaphorically at large we're looking at a lot of sudden change and that tends to break things you and not necessarily where you expect things like you know the guilt crisis of a few years ago in the UK you make some sudden change and suddenly the system buckles under the stress and there are multiple changes being made now on top of which we throw another hot war, two hot war, significant ones in the world. And okay, we have a ceasefire now, but it's not very cease. There's a lot more fire than cease at the moment anyway. Um, you know, any of that goes suddenly the wrong way, goes pear-shaped on us, and you could easily see that waterfall event. And and the background of that, the background is nosebleleed valuations, you know, just the the magnificent seven just like screaming skyhigh. the how long ago was it when we talked about unicorns being billion dollar valuations? Now we've got companies coming to market at trillion dollar valuations. Boy, talk about inflation. That's a thousandx.
>> Um, you know, what could possibly go wrong, Michelle?
>> I mean, I hear those points. Uh, I definitely hear those points. And uh yes, we are in an unusual environment that um a post on truth social uh by our president can cause tremendous market girrations one way or another only to then be reversed by another post. So I get that again for good or for bad depending on whether you support the agenda or not is irrelevant here as you say you do have >> that is a key point. Sorry for jumping in, but for any all the people who are already pounding that, you know, oh, you hate Trump or you're evil or whatever, that is not the point. I'm agnostic to that. For purposes of making money, it's the volatility and and I think that's undeniable, whatever your political persuasion may be.
>> I think that's that's a fair point. Um, but let's bring it back to precious metals. Okay, so given this environment, you're seeing you've taken some money off this off off you've taken some profits, you're sitting in some liquid. Um, what does this mean though for your outlook for gold? Because I believe you're drawing a distinction between physical gold and gold miners and gold ETFs, but let's start off with with gold, physical gold. What is your outlook there?
>> Sure. And we we we want to make a distinction here. The remarks that we just went over was about the broader market scenario. The waterfall event that we talked about, I don't see it as being gold specific. I see that as being a marketwide phenomenon that I want to be prepared to take advantage of should we be so lucky uh those who are liquid going into it. The gold scenario is a completely different uh kettle of fish. And my base case, my outlook has been and continues to be right now that we are in a period of consolidation and correction before the next move, which I do expect to be higher, not lower. That is my base case and I'm sticking to it. But but I have to say there's some things that have happened that have me pretty concerned or let's say cautious about being too optimistic and wanting to pay attention to the data in case it starts to say that I'm wrong. One of those is that as any of the silver bulls that you've interviewed, Michelle, will tell you, silver typically lags gold in a bull market and then more than catches up at the end. Well, since the bottom of 2015, in late 2015, when gold and silver bottomed, silver has now, as of January this year, finally more than caught up to gold. And by the way, on a percentage gain basis from that bottom, it's still higher than gold now. In the past, since 1971, when gold and silver were freed from the dead weight of the dollar by Richard Nixon, um, every time we've had a bull market, this pattern has happened where silver catches up at the end. The end being the operative words there. And that is where we are now on the charts. So, you know, shoot the messenger if you want to, but it won't do any good. you know, this is, I think, a reason to be cautious about our assumptions here. The other thing is, and I'm not normally a technical analyst, or not not normally, I'm not at all a technical analyst, but I do look at charts, and when things in charts line up, especially more than once, it certainly draws my attention. And right now uh if you look at a chart if you if you look at January of 2026 as you suppose that was a peak and you compare that to the peak in September of 2011 and you compare that to the peak in January of 1980 and there are some very spooky similarities that there is a very sharp you know pre- peak rally which makes sense. There's a sharp falloff. There's something that may be a dead cat bounce and then and actually both of the previous peaks there's it curves over and then there's another bounce and then they diverge but generally head downwards after the peak after that >> where we are right now you know that that pattern matches very closely. It's very spooky Michelle if you ever look at that chart of the three lines superimposed >> it's quite striking the similarities. Of course it's not perfect and it doesn't prove anything. It's not because it's happened twice before that it has to happen this time.
>> But between that silver always catches up to gold at the end of the bull market thing and the peaks looking similar. I think it behooves us to be cautious. So let me be very very clear. My base case is still consolidation. Next big move likely higher. But I'm watching it more closely. not happy to just sail on and assume, yeah, everything's going to be great because, you know, central banks are buying and governments are printing, you know, all that macro stuff. That that that's a long-term outlook. Right now, >> there is market data that says that we need to be careful in our assumptions about what happens next. One more thing real quick, and that doesn't mean it's the end of the world. Like in my view, like if the worst thing happens from what I'm saying now, if these signals actually do pick uh pick an interim top for us, I think we're maybe looking at something like 2011 or maybe the mid1 1970s peak where it goes down and then comes back up again. The I am ultimately a fundamentalist, not a technical analyst. And the fundamentals are extremely bullish. I mean, even getting more bullish this year, not less. So if the worst case scenario is 2011, then we have a buying opportunity that long-suffering gold and silver bulls don't want. But Mr. Market doesn't care what we want. And it would be another reason to be liquid. So many of the the gold stocks that I just sold, I would be happy to buy them back again at at 50% off or more. Like the the mid 1970s trough was a 50% retreat. After 2011, it was a roughly 50% retreat again in gold. So, if that pattern repeats and we get a 50% retreat in gold, that's sub 30,000. That's high 2000s. Um, and the gold stocks, if we went that low, I think they would just absolutely get creamed and I might be able to buy for nickels and dimes on the dollar. Um, that would be another reason to conserve cash right now. So despite my base case being bullish, the possibility of these things, either the broader market, the waterfall event puts everything on sale or the possibility that gold is put in an interim top and it will take silver with it. Either one can give me spectacular buying opportunities in the months ahead. And so at least for now, that's why I'm so uh long on cash right now.
>> Okay. So, you're saying that uh investors should at least consider the possibility that gold has peaked the cycle and already priced in much of the bullish news that got it to where it is.
>> On on the fundamental level though, I hear what you're saying that the patterns look similar on the charts from a technical analysis perspective. On a fundamental level though, in 2011, we did not have central banks buying gold uh nowhere near today's pace. And that trend is looking to cons to continue. I mean a latest report from the world gold council confirms that uh central banks were net buyers in April and expectations are for that pace to continue. So we also didn't have the same discussion around uh darization, reserve diversification, sustainability of sovereign debt. So is 2011 really a relevant comparison on the fundamentals or just on the technicals in in your mind here?
Well, it's all we have, Michelle. You know, we've got 2011 and we've got 1980. So, if we're going to look back for examples, history, you know, famously doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. It is a reasonable thing to look for guidance to what happened last time. You are right. Things are completely different in many ways or materially different in important ways from 2011. But 2011 was quite different from 1975 also. and it didn't stop gold from, you know, having a four to fiveyear bare market afterwards. So again, that's not my it's certainly not my hope. It's not my prediction. I'm just saying if that happens, I'd rather have the cash to buy that opportunity than to ride the waterfall down.
>> All right. And just to be clear, when you say gold, >> yeah, when I'm talking buying and selling, that's the stocks. My bullion, I haven't sold an ounce. No, but gold miners or uh exposure to gold via ETFs, what what are you buying and selling?
>> Well, that is not a one-sizefits-all. It depends on on the particular person. If I'm a retiree on fixed income, uh but I want exposure to gold. You know, I'm not going to mess around with the junior miners. I, you know, I probably would just stick >> No, but what what have you sold is my question. You've exited when I say you've exited some of your positions in gold. gold and silver miners out of my portfolio. It wasn't my intention to just like sell them all, but I had criteria.
>> Um, >> okay. >> And so, one was if I had a huge unrealized gain, then I just wanted to book it. And the other one was if I had concerns about it, you know, maybe political risk or something else, then I just didn't want that risk in my portfolio. So, between the two, it was either a huge win or there was some concern with the story. So, I ended up selling all of them. um >> and and gold ETF positions as well. When you say gold, >> I don't use the ETFs. If if I wanted to trade gold, like if I was really convinced that that gold is going down next, >> then I might buy one of the ETFs uh or inversely like I might short it, >> okay, >> to to speculate on that. For for trading gold, which I don't do like bullion itself, I just accumulate. If I did want to trade gold, then yes, I would use an ETF because it makes no sense to pay the extra fees to trade physical gold. Uh that that just makes no sense. Um but for make for making money, I'm I'm a stock picker and you know, it can be the royalties or you know, next there would be the majors and then the developers and then on down the food chain to the juniors depending on your riskreward uh your own criteria. Before we continue the conversation with Lobo, I just want to take a quick minute to thank you all so much for watching and supporting our work. Please make sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already and please set your alert notifications. And we'd really appreciate it if you would share our content and help us grow this community. Also, if you would like to learn more about precious metals and get a customized precious metal strategy that best suits you, you can reach the expert team of brokers and advisers at info@mfranklin.com. Also, check out the website mfranklin.com. Now, back to the interview with Lobo Tigra. So, you're fully out of all gold and silver miners. You took some profit. You're sitting on the sidelines with cash hoping that there's going to be a very uh big opportunity for you to jump in and and and sweep up something.
>> Hoping makes me sound a little more predatory. Let's say I'm prepared for the possibility.
>> Well, you know, speaking of wolf, last time we spoke, you said your wolf whiskers uh tell you that gold wants to test $4,000. Uh gold was 3,600 at the time. Again, this was September 18th of last year. Oh, you said my wolf whiskers are telling me that gold wants to test 4,000 before it >> potentially before a major correction. However, so you you were correct on that it hit 4,000, but I think you were expecting a correction before we hit that 5,400 peak that we did in January.
>> Yeah. Nobody gets them all right. Um, but you know, in January I I I I went prepared to have rotten tomatoes thrown at me because that's when I started talking about selling gold and silver stocks. And this is late January at the Vancouver Resource Investment Show. And I was I wouldn't say I was afraid, but I I was aware that the audience might not appreciate what I had to say. I didn't know it was going to be the peak would be two days later. But fortunately for me, Rick Rule got on the stage, the very same stage that I spoke at, the same room, and he talked about selling 80% of his physical silver right before I got on stage. So after Rick's talk, I was I was the nice guy. All I did was sell some gold stocks and silver stocks.
>> Well, you know, you can't be you're in good company. Let's put it this way. If you and Rick Rule are taking similar positions, you're you're in good company. But let's get your gold forecast for where you see gold ending the year. So if if we do see a 50% retracement sub 3000 that takes us to the high 2000s in gold, that's not my base case, but let's just put that to get that out of the way. I would absolutely be buying that with both fist. I'd have a garage sale. I'd give some blood. I don't know. I do something. You know, I have a big pile of cash, but if it dropped that low, I think that would be a once in a generation type buying opportunity. So, I I I don't want that to happen, but I would absolutely be happy to take advantage of it should it do. So, um more likely I think we're we're going to fluctuate in this 4 to 5,000 range. That may seem like a lot. Like a $1,000 swing seems like a lot, but for commodities, that's not that much. I mean, from 5,000 to 4,000, that's that's 20%. And gold did that last time when when gold went screaming up to 2,000 bucks in after the the COVID lockdowns in 2020. It actually did that correction and consolidation thing for three years and it you know it easily plus or minus 20% mostly 10% but but 20% was in that range in those three years. So again, recency bias. If that was our most recent big correction and consolidation period, we could easily look at this year, next year fluctuating in that range and then the big move higher. I think because of the fundamentals that you laid out so well, I don't need to repeat them. So here's an interesting point. Like people say, "Oh, you sold too soon. Gold's next, you know, even you were saying the next big move is up. So so why sell anything? It's, you know, it's going to 10,000 or more, whatever." Okay. But my outlook is for this period of correction consolidation. If the money is going sideways and or the you know the the stocks are are magnifying those ups and downs for the next you know why do I need to be long during that period even if the bulls are right about where this is going. The the only way that I've made a huge mistake, Michelle, would be if gold just takes off as soon as you publish this thing and it goes, you know, screaming up to 10,000, you know, over the rest of this month. Um, then I will have missed that. But you know what? If that happens, I will have bought gold sub $1,000 and I will have taken profits at 5,000 and missing the the ramp up from 5,000 to 10,000. I missed that final half, but I did 5x between when I bought and when I sold. Like my entire track record doubled the average gain. My average gain of all completed trades until this year was around 40%. And it's around 80% now because of these big profits that I took. So even if I miss the the the mania at the end, I made money, right? and I'm cashed up to take advantage of these other opportunities. Sorry, I got a bit distracted. I forgot what your question was.
>> My question was, what is your outlook for gold end of 2020?
>> I think we covered that. So, the outlook >> give me a number. You were like, it could drop up to 2,000. What What is your Give me a number.
>> That's that's the I think the worst case scenario is that sub 30,000 high 2000s. If if if January of 26 was like September of 2011, then I think a 50% haircut would be fitting the pattern of what the past tells us. That's not my base case. My base case is 20% plus or minus fluctuations out of 2020. And my my point though was that there's other things I can do with that money during that time.
>> You know, rotating into other opportunities to buy. By the way, if none of this happens, >> you you talk about consolidation though. Um, you could say, "Aren't we consolidated?" I mean, we peaked at 5,400. We're now in a range of 4,400 4,600. Hasn't that >> correction consolidation, but is it consolidation? Hard to say.
>> So, what would cause that uh that $2,000 goal? What would cause such a dramatic decline?
So there are there are numerous explanations and actually some of them make me even more bullish. Um so for example one explanation is that sovereigns are selling gold now because of the war and >> well mostly Turkey because of Russia >> um there are reports I've not seen numbers on them and I don't know if the the WGC will will have the data on this but there are reports that a lot of the Gulf states are selling gold as well and if I'm Sri Lanka or someplace and I can't buy jet fuel you know for what I used to then Then Maybe I'll dip into my reserves as well. It's we'll only know in hindsight and then we'll only know partially. But that what I what I'm saying what's good about this is that like if sovereigns this isn't just you know JP Morgan or some private institution deciding to spoof some gold or or or do some market manipulation here. If sovereigns are dumping gold on a sovereign scale and all it does is knock gold back from 5,000 to 4,000. That's pretty robust. I mean, robust is a is a crazy good number for the actual business of mining the stuff. If you're a minor right now, you built your mine with a with a price assumption less than 2,000, maybe even closer to, you know, 15,700. So, you're you're literally making money right now. You're printing cash even after this this correction. So,
>> right. I don't want to I don't want to sound like uh like the the king of the Roherim in the Lord of the Rings movie right before Saurroman blows up his fort saying is that all you got Saurroman? But if if that's the worst that a sovereign scale selling can do to the gold market that's a pretty robust gold market.
>> Other thing is just there's this stupid knee-jerk market reaction and I think this is a big part of the story today where gold doesn't pay interest, right? So, anything that might cause interest rates to either not be cut or to be hiked again, well, that's bad for gold. And and this is a common pattern. Oddly enough, gold doesn't always tank or or even necessarily tank when interest rates are raised. But the fear of rate hikes, the the idea that the rate hikes are coming has in past cycles been very tough for gold. So, here's here's the deal. There's this war and it's not just any war. Like people are pulling their hair out like it's war. Gold should be going to the moon. You know, where's the safe haven aspect of gold in this war? Well, this war happens to be in the Middle East in the middle of the, you know, the richest oil producing um part of the world. Let's not quibble about what richest means. You know what I mean? Um so, you know, oil up, people see that as inflation up. People see that, you know, the logic is oil up, inflation up, therefore rates may go up, therefore sell gold. I I think this is completely wrong. A we've seen inflation go up and and gold did fine in recent memory. Gold led the inflation up postcoid. Um there's no reason to assume that this is how it has to go now. But but I see that you see that I I can't prove it but on the intraday trading you see headlines that smack of higher interest rates and gold gets whacked like it's it's immediate. So I do think this is part of what's going on. And by the way, if I'm right and the market is wrong to be doing this, it's a source of opportunity. Anytime that that you can see that the market is making a mistake, if you're willing to be a contrarian, there's an opportunity there.
Right. Well, on the central bank topic, you know, selling gold during a war is exactly what gold is for. That's the whole point of holding gold is to have >> insurance. >> Yeah. To have something liquid that you can sell to bolster your currency as in the case of of Turkey with the tanking LRA to uh you know have liquidity to buy what you need to buy as we've seen these sovereigns doing. But you know March there was a net selling of gold by central banks. Latest data from the World Gold Council uh is saying that um net gold buying in April collectively adding 17 tons of gold in April. So reversing the previous month's net sales. Poland was the largest buyer by the way adding 14 tons. China also accelerating its buying. Just uh some data from the World Coal Council there. Now, you still didn't give me a number, and I kind of have to just I'll throw these out to you, and you can tell me if they sound about right to you. And I understand that you're saying you've got it's not your base case, but you've got your bearish case. So, uh, Deutsche Bank says 6,000 gold by the year end. JP Morgan 6,000 gold. That's their target. UBS 5,500. Goldman Sachs 5,400 year in target.
>> Sounds about right.
>> You know, I don't do price targets, Michelle, but I won't leave you high and dry. You had to try. You know, kudos for trying, >> but >> you do sometimes give me price targets. I do sometimes manage to get something out of here.
>> Giving you a range, you know, plus or minus. I can see gold in this correction consolidation period waffling between four and $5,000. When it ends, I don't know, but if I'm right about the next big move being up, uh, you know, here here's your headline if you want. I I I don't I don't approve of clickbait, but um if I'm right about the next boom being up, I think these, you know, 67,000 projections, I think they're too modest. I think it easily doubles again from here.
>> But over what time period? Not not by year end.
>> No, no, no. I after the period of correction consolidation ends. I don't know like when the breakout happens >> from there over the next year or two I could easily even even within one year I could see gold if not hitting 10k let's say from here for forward in a bit to eight or nine I could I could easily see that happening within a year once it gets going upwards again
>> all right so within a year we could see 8 n 10k gold but first you do expect >> within a year after the inflection point off to the inflection point. Okay,
>> where we're at now, this period, the volatility sideways, it could I mean it lasted three years last time. We're half we're we're four months into it this time. I but I think I think easily it lasts this year. I I'd be surprised if it lasted all of next year.
>> Fair enough. Let's go to silver. So, we spoke last you were very bullish on silver. Silver was at around $41 September 18th. You said you could easily see silver taking out $50, which it did. I think like within days of when we spoke, how the industrial story was becoming uh increasingly important. You also correctly said that silver will outperform gold on a percentage basis. So you were correct there. What are you seeing for silver now?
Well, believe it or not, I'm even though silver is higher on a percentage gain basis, I still see more upside in silver than gold. Um, and that's not just because on an inflation adjusted basis is it hasn't hit all-time highs. It's actually more fundamental than that. I think silver has the monetary metal aspect of it going to it. It also has not just the industrial side, but the critical minerals side going for it. Now,
>> um there's I mean there's a lot of silver goes into nuclear power plants. Everybody talks about the solar panels, but there's a lot of silver goes into nuclear power plants. Um if you're going to Here's here's a here's a a new idea. If any of this uh data centers and space stuff comes together, silver is more conductive than gold, but a lot cheaper. And we don't and it's much more conductive than copper, but more expensive. And we don't use silver. We we even prefer gold over silver for for electrical contacts here on Earth because silver does react. It is reactive. It corrodes. Whereas gold is non-reactive. And so your gold contacts will last longer. But if you're in space where there's no air, there's nothing to oxidize the silver. So if you want high performance, you might actually be willing to cough up for silver rather than copper and not worry about it rusting because it's in space. Anyway,
>> so you're >> that's a little bit of a science fiction, but but based on that,
>> well, just just to clarify that or elaborate on that idea rather, you're talking about this idea that um this AI boom is going to create orbiting data centers because it's cheaper or more practical in ways to have these data centers up in space than here on Earth. And that's commentary that we've seen uh from Elon Musk recently uh as well as others. That's that's what you're referring to, just to be clear.
>> Yes. Though I would say that's actually the nose under the the tent, the nose of the camel under the tent. There's a lot more that can be done up in orbit. And if this pays and you know, Elon's got the hardware almost ready to go, it seems. Um, rockets are hard. Uh, but you know, he's he's doing it right.
>> Bezos is finding that out time and time again that rockets are hard. Um,
>> but so but you know it's not only more electrically conductive, it's also more heat conductive than gold. So and and heat transfer is a big deal for those satellites floating in the sun to collect that light and needing to radiate heat on the dark side. So there there are a couple reasons why silver could be sort of uh you know a gateway metal here to the stars as it were. But but right here on earth right now we do still have the solar panels and you know there's talk about China maybe using you know making less or whatever but other people are using more and and we have many many other uses for silver point the point that I was trying to make though is that unlike gold silver has large and increasing numbers of you know mass use of silver in industry and critical use in industry. So, I actually see silver, I've said this before, that under the right circumstances, silver is the win-win metal. It has, you know, as a monetary metal. It responds to the money printing, the inflation, and all that stuff that that's bullish for gold, but as a very important and um, you know, a unique element with special qualities that make it perfectly suited for certain jobs. you know, this this industrial/critical mineral side could give it a tailwind that gold simply lacks. And um so this doesn't sound like Darth silver at all, but it's funny because I got called that because I was saying that silver's industrial side was stronger than gold's and you know that was seemed as ne deemed as negative while industrial metals were were going down. But now the indust you know copper and you know industrial metals are soaring. People are happy to to hear me say that. But I'm saying the same thing.
>> Well and as you say quite rightly I mean silver has tremendous industrial uses from potential uh deployment in space to anything to do with solar to electric cars, cell phones, defenses. I mean we've certainly gone through a good supply of missiles these days. So the industrial case is very much there and so that brings medical use uh cars, phones, everything. Uh and as we know this the silver um institute says that there is a six to seven year supply deficit. So where again do you see silver ending the year or give me give me a time frame with which you feel comfortable giving me uh a price forecast.
Yeah, that's even harder. Yeah. Um, you know, I would expect it to track gold, but the the GSR can widen or close depending on the industrial side and other factors. We all know that that silver is sort of like gold on steroids when it comes to the volatility. So, if we're going to see plus or minus 10 20% fluctuations in gold until it breaks out, my base case, um, then I would expect greater volatility on silver. And that's all I can give you. I would I would not at all be surprised to see silver drop below 50 again, which was the ceiling before and that would trigger, you know, massive technical alarms because if if what was your ceiling was now seen as your floor and you break that floor, I think a lot of people will trade that. A lot of people might think, "Oh, that's it. It's done." They'd be wrong. I'm not making a bare case against silver. I'm saying I can see where fluctuations could lead to market errors in this space. And again, if the market makes a mistake, I think that's a source of opportunity. Um, being a fundamentalist, I'm not sure there's a particular silver price trigger that would make me buy. Unless it got stupid cheap. Like, if it dropped back to 30 or less, I'm I'm not sure that's possible. But if it did, I would see that as stupid. And I I would absolutely back up the truck for that.
>> Sure. But again, um, with the fundamentals that we've just laid out, as well as we're seeing more demand for actual physical silver. So that many people are saying is causing less price distortion and less price manipulation in in the silver market because there's so much demand for physical these days. What would make it drop to 30 or or even 50?
>> You know, markets are uh emotional. they overreact. Things get overbought and oversold. Let's say that let's say the Chinese really do cut back on producing solar this year. I've heard it argued that, you know, they they built so much that they actually have grid problems with with the solar now. Um so let's say they do cut back materially and that affects demand on that industrial side. And let's say objectively that should knock silver down to 60. Well, when do markets ever do exactly what they should do? Whatever the mathematical equivalrium price should be, they always go over bought and oversold. That's where speculators find their opportunities. When this is classic Doug Caseyism, you know how he made his fortune. What Papa Casey taught me when I was in diapers is there's markets are emotional and price and value often diverge. And when you have the courage of a contrarian to identify that divergence that price and value have diverg you know over or under overbought oversold you can go long you can go short but if you're right that is the stuff that fortunes are made of. You know a big bet placed right when the market is making a mistake it's gone too far either way is how we make our money.
>> Yes. um stuff that fortunes are made of was the phrase you used for your copper call which was correct. But before we get to that throughout the bank forecasts and they're quite varied. Uh Croup has $110 target for the second half of 2026. For silver, Goldman Sachs has $85 to $100 range. Bank of America around 85. Uh UBS 80 you're in target. So from the low end from the banks 80 up until cityroup at 110 target. Um you care to give us a number or you going to dodge this one?
>> Yeah I break our pattern Michelle. I think I should dodge but if it if it travels in a range the way gold is you know I'm 70 to 90 range until the next big move.
>> All right. Well we we'll take that. you know, you don't always dodge, which is why I'm able to say you call things correctly. Um because when I do force you to give me a price target, it turns out you're right and then I can come back and, you know, uh sing your praises for you.
>> I'm usually too cautious. I may be the the way I always say it is I'm happy if I just get the direction right. You know,
>> if I get the direction right, then my stocks will go where I want them to go and I make money. All right, let's talk about copper because that was your highest conviction trade last time we spoke and you literally said that copper could make fortunes. Um, when again we spoke in September, copper is up around 48%. Since then, it was around $4.4 a pound. Now it's at around 6.5 a pound. The record high was uh about 6.7 a pound. So what what what are you seeing? I mean, we we do have copper prices rising right now. Uh, just on some Trump administration news, as per your earlier point, because traders think that the US may soon impose tariffs on imported copper and the Trump administration has given the commerce secretary until June 30th to decide whether or not to recommend new tariffs on refined copper imports. And because traders fear that tariffs are coming, companies are rushing to get copper into the US before those taxes are imposed. And that's been pushing US copper prices higher um higher in the US and anywhere in the world. But uh you know of course we've got other factors helping copper in including uh the AI boom which you touched on uh copper needed for data centers, power infrastructure, electrical equipment, all all of that. So that was your highest call, highest point of conviction last time. How are you feeling about copper now?
base case is the same, but it has, you know, it has risen substantially from where it was when we last talked. So, it's it's harder for me to look at a nominal nominal only record high copper price and say, "Yeah, that's an opportunity to buy low." you know, if if you're a long-term investor, where this is going over, I think not just this year or a couple years, but years, if not decades ahead, the the you know, before the AI thing and even before the EVs, we were already looking ahead at copper def deficits. We weren't experiencing them at the time, but we could see it coming because the discoveries were just not coming fast enough. mind depletion, you know, mining is a business that literally, you know, the the longer it goes, the the less it has left. You you put yourself out of business unless you make a new discovery and develop it, you know, and you don't take 30 years getting your copper mine in Arizona permitted and all that good stuff, right? So, the log jams just have have not broken on the supply side. And that's been what's been making me bullish. uh the on top of this now we have these tailwinds of the demand from the electrification and the AI and so on and you know even if AI is hyped up and let's say the whole thing it's it's like the dotcom and the fiber over overbuilding and all that well the fiber still got used the the internet did happen right so even if AI let's say that the reality turns out to be 50% of all the hyperventilation going on that's still a huge buildout needs to happen and it's still going to take Tons of copper. Literally tons of copper. Um I I I posted a video on my X feed of somebody in a warehouse that was supplying parts to a data center. And it's not like just some little copper wire, you know, that connects this with that. It's not just some little fitting here. It's like these big slabs of iron. They're copper buses. Sorry, not iron of copper. They're copper buses that are major connecting things. And there's stacks of them, like forklift pallets full of them. And it's like a Costco warehouse. And it's not just a forklift pallet, like stacks of those pallets. And then in the hallway of these pallets goes as far as you could see. It is a massive amount of copper and silver, too, by the way. Um,
So, you know, whatever the magnitude of the tailwind that we're getting from the AI, it's not going to be zero. And it adds to a situation where we're already looking at structural supply deficits. So, I'm I remain extremely bullish.
Um, my great disappointment is that even though I've been right about copper, I didn't buy much copper. I bought a couple stocks that were arguably on sale, but I never really got a a a low enough entry point to get me excited. You get the idea is to buy low and sell high, not to buy high and hope to sell higher. And um you know copper got way ahead of itself last year based on tariff silliness before anything actually happened. And I was right that it was silliness. You know the mid 25 when we saw what the tariffs actually were. Spot copper fell dramatically last year. I don't know if you remember this or not but anybody can look at the chart. There's a huge drop in copper but all these fundamentals that I'm talking about are so obvious that the copper stocks they barely wiggled. So, I was I I said, "Oh, copper is up prematurely. I'm not going to chase this." And I was right. Copper came back, but but it didn't give me the opportunity to buy the stocks. And now it's back up again. And I'm still not as long as I want to be. Not entirely short, but not as long as I want to be.
So, >> but you wouldn't exit a pop a position now. >> Yes. Hopefully, the useful guidance for your audience is um this war You know, there's a lot of people talking about demand destruction as a result of the war. And you know, Dr. Copper supposedly has his PhD in economics, right? So, if if there's no peace deal anytime soon and as the knock-on effects of the war really start hitting the economy, that should produce a buying opportunity in copper. Maybe not as good as I was hoping for last year, but good enough for me to go long and buy some more copper stocks and and not feel like I'm, you know, chasing them at all-time highs.
>> So, which which stocks are we talking about? Like Freeport Morning, like which what are your copper stock picks? Typically, >> you know, I don't give out free stock tips. You know, I'm pretty tightfisted on that.
>> Just a general range. >> We have another tradition on this, Michelle. You know, you had to try. But I will say again depending on the type of investor I am. If I'm riskaverse, the majors in this space are pretty obvious. We can all see who are the biggest, most stable, most profitable companies. You don't need me to give you a stock pick. That right there has just narrowed it down to a pretty small basket. You know, there are a number of developers out there that have what looks like could be a mine in the making. It's not too hard to tell beep from Shyola in that space. Uh, oddly enough, there are not that many juniors in the copper space. It's it's elephant hunting and there not a lot of small hunters that go out there. Uh, and even when they do, they're you're usually hoping to get a, you know, a major to come and,
>> you know, logo, if you did give some stock picks, and every now and again I managed to extract one and all of our viewers would see how correct you are, that would only enhance your subscriptions. But uh I will say this uh for the interim I think the the general consensus that the key date to watch regarding copper is June 30th because if Trump announces significant copper tariffs then the prices could spike further because the US would likely need to >> or if the announcement comes out different from what the market is pricing in it could create the very buying opportunity I'm looking for >> and and hence I'm saying that's that's the key day to watch that could be June June 30th when that that deadline uh
>> another reason for you know you know why I'm sitting on cash right now. And by the way, um I don't know if you were going to go there or not, but if I can quickly branch from this, I'm saying that if the war continues, whatever happens June 30, if the war continues, it should create a better buying opportunity in copper. If it doesn't, there's a pair trade here, another reason to why I'm sitting on cash. And the pair trade is oil. If the if the war ends or appears to end is declared to be ended like we've seen oil drop 20 30% just on an optimistic tweet like no actual news as you were saying earlier.
>> So if it can drop that much on just a tweet what happens if they actually announce not just a ceasefire but but an actual end to the war I think we get a buying opportunity.
>> So for right now one my cash is not a portfolio position. I do not recommend anybody go to 80% cash the way I am right now. That's just an accident of where I ended up when I took my profits. And the reason why I haven't immediately redeployed is because of what we're talking about right now. So I don't know the future. Nobody does. But if you want to know what I'm doing with my own money right now with my own money, I'm sitting on cash because I think the war ends. I get a sale price, you know, opportunity in the oil stocks and the, you know, the blue chips or the best of the best in there will go on sale with the rest. And if the war doesn't end, I should get an opportunity in copper. One or the other, and I've got cash to take care of either.
>> So, that is what you're positioning for, that if the war ends, you're going to have oil stocks go on sale, and then you're ready to scoop those up, assuming that they'll rise again uh soon. Um, and if it continues, you see copper dropping and that's an opportunity for you to jump in there.
>> Right. People say, "Oh, no, but you're trying to time the market." Nobody can do that. I I agree. I'm not trying to time the market.
>> Sounds like you're trying to time geopolitics. >> Whichever one shows up, I'll pounce on that one.
>> All right. We We're running out of time here, but you did talk about uranium last time. You said that was one of your high conviction calls. Um, it has been for a long time to be fair. um you know nuclear energy back in conversations especially as we're seeing uh a need to maybe diversify from oil with what uh this conflict has taught us. Um what what's the opportunity now? I mean September 18th when we spoke uranium was at around $76 a pound. Uh then it had a huge surge. Uh in January there was some news that Meta signed agreements to gain fresh nuclear capacity for future AI data centers. We saw uranium peak at around 101 uh per pound late January. Now it's $86. So still up from last time we spoke. What's your read on uranium now?
>> Uh it's similar to copper except that I don't I don't really see >> why probability buying event >> that the the the waterfall event in the broader markets we started this interview with. If that happens, that'll whack everything, including the uranium stocks and and that I would again that you know when the market puts something on sale for the wrong reason, that is an absolute gift and I'll be happy to back up the truck in that circumstance. But that's not actually the high my highest probability case. That's just a possibility.
>> Um, and uranium is actually quite recession resistant. So, you know, even if the war drags on and you know, Dr. copper goes down, it it may not take uranium with it. So, this is another takeaway for your audience, Michelle. If if if they're like, "Well, Lobo keeps saying he's waiting for this, he's waiting for that, you know, where's my opportunity today?" Well, if I didn't have any uranium in my portfolio today, I would buy some tomorrow. I would I would not wait.
>> Um, and there are obvious blue chips in the space that you can go with. um as is since I sold my gold and silver stocks, my portfolio is almost entirely uranium now with with a bit of copper.
>> So that makes me a bit patient. It makes me willing to wait for the next stupid thing. Like just over a year ago, remember that deep sea scare? And you know when that came out, uranium spot uranium wiggled and the uranium stocks just went like from 52- week highs to 52- week lows. and they came screaming back within a couple months because it was it was very quickly evident that that was wrongheaded that that it was not the end of the AI buildout.
>> So, uh just real quick, the whole story here is not AI. That is again a tailwind. Bear in mind that before any of this AI stuff, China was already planning to double its reactor fleet by 2050. And that may sound like a long time, but in the given how long it takes to build nuclear power plants, 2050 is tomorrow. And on the way to 2050, you've got 2040. And those builds are happening now. There's there's what is it half a dozen reactors or more under construction in China right now. And they're ramping that up. And um so so the demand side here is just really really strong. And it was strong before even the electric cars, let alone the AI thing. Extra tailwinds are welcome. I I love it here.
>> Uh yes, uranium is not rare. There is a lot of uranium. It's even a byproduct in some mines, but the uranium that is deliverable to the market is rare. And it's turned out that the people that had projects or or capacity to ramp up, pretty much all of them have either missed their targets, been late, it's cost more, or they're they're they're not producing as much as they thought they would. So, the fear of the lowhanging fruit of high prices curing high prices, I think we have an answer to that question, and that's a very good thing for this bold case here. I'm I'm very keen on uranium. would be happy to buy more if I found a compelling buying opportunity. Uh, and and if the market gets stupid about them, I'll be happy to take uranium stocks off of weaker hands.
>> And you're currently still very much exposed to uranium. So, what are you seeing as the biggest opportunity in the resource sector now? biggest opportunity in the resource sector right now? Well, of of all of these things we've just talked about, it would probably be uranium. If I if I had to buy put more if I had to put money to work today, I would put it into uranium. That having been said, it it's not $18 the way it was, you know, um in in 2016. It's $80. So, uh, yeah, I I I think, you know, I keep saying, you know, put a gun to my head. If I had to buy tomorrow, this is what I would do. But nobody has a gun to their head. I hope we don't have to buy tomorrow.
>> Well, is is the opportunity to sell then? You know, >> is the opportunity >> if I had if I had unrealized gains here and I was looking, look, we've just talked about a half a dozen commodities. What are the chances that sometime this year, what are the chances that none of those go on sale this year? Like with all the change coming out of the White House and all the chaos and and volatility around the world in global markets, what are the odds that there won't be some scare or some overhyped headline or some disappointment or some surprise that doesn't put one of these things significantly on sale causing the stocks to get oversold and creating a buying opportunity? I think that I think the odds are very small. I'm willing I I don't know which one it'll be, but I'm happy to have funds to make use of whichever opportunity that is.
>> Sometimes the best thing to do is just to be patient for a while.
>> And you know, in your case, that worked because you did have considerable uh upside to take off the table.
>> In my case, it's a horrible thing for selling newsletters. People want to know what my shopping list is. Here are my hot stock tips. Lobo's sitting on his hands. Why do I need his newsletter? But and and and by the way, I have seen a drop off.
>> Um >> not a big one, but I have seen it. But but this is what I think. I can't sure I can't not tell you what I think because I would sell more newsletters.
>> So is I guess maybe this answers that question. What is your most contrarian call? You consider yourself a contrarian. What is your most contrarian call right now? Well, you know, I my wheelhouse is minerals, metals, and mining, the oil patch. I probably have to think outside of Okay. No. Okay. No. No. So, in my wheelhouse, okay. Most contrarian call right now might be lithium or nickel because they're still necessary. Like nickel before the whole, you know, EV craze and and the batteries and all that stuff. uh you know nickel's used in stainless steel and other things. We we still need nickel. It is a major industrial component.
>> Um it it did suffer a supply surge though. So it wasn't just the narrative. It wasn't just oh it got overbought and so it corrected. I mean the Indonesians and the eastern producers just swamped the market. So that was a real thing. uh that could dry up and that could put nickel you know back on a more sustainable upward trajectory. Lithium is also not rare and there there is mothball capacity there to come back.
>> Um, but you know let's say this war continues and the the interest in EVs is reignited even in North America and suddenly we need a lot more batteries. um you know that may or may not be good for nickel and eventually we're going to have you know the the sodium batteries and so on but right now that would be bullish for lithium and both of those are still I think in the doghouse those are underdogs in the metals and mining space that are still necessary and uh I I'm not recommending either I'm not personally putting nickel or or lithium on my shopping list but if you ask for a contrarian play I think Both of those have potential.
>> Okay. Now, because you volunteered it, you said a contrarian call within your space. Uh, let's hear what a contrarian call not in your space could be.
>> Well, you know, at the beginning of the AI phase, it actually crossed my mind that everybody's going gaga about all these GPUs, TPUs, all these things. What about the hardware? you know, you still need the racks and the and the, you know, the computer boxes to put these things in, but that that's already played out. So, I'm not saying I predicted what's happening now with the spreading of the AI thing, though. I did think about it, uh, that there was a potentially an opportunity there of these unloved things. That's gone.
>> Um, I don't know, Michelle, maybe in this crazy world, people will get so nervous that they'll all take up smoking again. There you go. Tobacco companies could be a contrarian play outside my wheelhouse.
>> All right. Um maybe vaping. I don't know. That had a moment. But uh thankfully that reversed again. Not forcing you to come up with a contrarian call that you don't believe in, but was just curious if you had um
>> that was a wild guess. I was absolutely not saying I believe in that call.
>> Okay. Just Okay. Okay. So, you do not believe in that call, but you've made it very clear what you do believe in, and that is for you to be sitting patiently on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity,
>> but not forever. By the way, if if I don't deploy within a couple months, if if these opportunities I'm expecting disappoint me, then I will have new marching orders. I will retool. I'm not going to sit on a pile of cash forever. It's, you know,
>> when you say cash, is this in treasury bills? I mean, holding cash has its own downsides with inflation just like some money market account.
>> I I keeping your cash >> I don't need to to spell out all the details of my banking and brokerage. Uh, but there are, you know, online ways to get a little bit of interest that offsets the inflation a bit.
>> Um, but no, if the right tweet tomorrow could create the buying opportunity I'm looking for in oil, like tomorrow. So that cash needs to be instantly deployable. If it's if it's not just in cash in my brokerage account, then it needs to be adjacent to that so that I don't or or let's say even forget the macro. Let's say a private placement opportunity comes up in a company I really like and I and I and I want the warrant, right? Rick rule, full warrant, two years or forget it, right? You know, if an opportunity like that comes up, the moment I hear about it, the clock is ticking. I have maybe a day to take advantage of that.
>> Um, and and so yeah, again to quote Rick, I I don't want to overquote Rick, but he he put it very succinctly. Holding cash now, even though you're aware of the of the inflation cost, he sees that as a premium to have the liquidity to act decisively on the opportunities ahead. So in in some ways, I think we're thinking very similarly along that. I'm willing to pay the inflation premium on some of my cash to have that ability to act decisively at scale in the in the short term.
>> Got it. So, the wolf is ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself. Uh, all right, Lober, we will leave it there for now. Um, I'm sure you and I will get a chance to catch up at the Rick Rule Symposium. Will you be there this year?
>> Absolutely. Okay, we can catch up in person there, but if you do start deploying, I I do want a heads up.
>> All right. Well, >> if we do, >> you know, I don't give away stock tips, but I but I will signal that in my free letter. Like when I start my my market, my macro takes that goes into my free macro letter that goes out every Saturday.
>> So, perfect segue for you to give out more information about where people can find that.
>> Very kind. independent speculator.com. I'm not going to try to arm twist anybody right now that that free letter is a great way to start. The one promise I can make, you may disagree with me about everything else, but the one promise I can make is that you will not get flooded with spam from me. I hate that you get one email notification per week and then you can decide, you know, whether I'm the due diligence guy for you or not.
>> All right. Well, thank you for sharing your diligence and insights with us today, Lobo. Appreciate it.
>> Thank you, Michelle. And as always, thank you for watching. If you found this conversation insightful, interesting, educational, entertaining, or hopefully all of the above, please be sure to like, share, and subscribe and help us grow this community. And we also have a weekly newsletter that you don't want to miss. It has previews and specials and some exclusive insights. There's a link in the description of this video to sign up for it. It's also on our website, milesfranklin.com. And if you would like to learn more about building a precious metal strategy, reach out to info@marsfranklin.com. There is a team of specialized advisers and brokers that can guide you. Until next time, feel free to leave us your comments. Feel free to praise wine or just pine. We will see you soon. Stay sovereign.
>> This is the real story with Michelle McCori.