Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Saturday, December 13th brief, it is 10:35 AM. Today, we will therefore talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, liquidation. We will look at what the Whales are doing, finishing with the technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had a bearish movement on Bitcoin. We see it clearly, we had a really violent wick in H4, so simply losing nearly 3% in 4 hours. So clearly, it was a violent move. Uh, personally, I was not necessarily prepared for a move like that. I was not long, but uh, well, in any case, it was not necessarily something that was foreseen given that we have accumulated a lot of liquidity to the north. So, it bodes well for the future. Uh, there is a scenario in which we would simply do a sweep just at this level here and then we could move on. So, we see that we have an IFVG just here. So, logically, we could come and take this IFVG over the weekend, perhaps Sunday evening and then have a rejection. So that will be quite interesting. In any case, there are not necessarily any shorts to attempt since the invalidation zone is too high. Clearly, we have this VG, so we would have to at least put our stop here. To aim for this zone here, it's not very useful. We would be on an RR of 0.8. So that means if you risk one, you gain 80 cents. Clearly, it's not worth it. On the other hand, what will be interesting to see is whether afterwards, when we have this movement here, whether we have a reversal of the trend and then, we could go much higher. So the $98,000 zone, I still have it in mind, but in my opinion, we will have a sweep of $89,000 before that. And in my opinion, so we are really in a range. So this weekend, we are likely not to move much. In my opinion, Sunday evening, we could go into this zone here to then come and seek this zone before having a potential rebound to go and seek at least then to go a bit higher. But we will look according to the data. In terms of economic news, next week, we will be served. Uh, Tuesday, we will have the unemployment rate at 2:30 PM and on Thursday, we will have American inflation at 2:30 PM. So, expect a lot of movement. We will also have the PCE Core on Friday, which has a direct impact on inflation and on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting. So, expect a decisive week before Christmas. So uh clearly after that, we are unlikely to move too much. So uh it's likely to be quite volatile next week. At the crypto level, what we see is that we have red almost everywhere, it's normal, we had a dump on Bitcoin. We have altcoins that are retracing quite well, notably M which is up 7.5%. By the way, we notice that when Bitcoin pumps, M dumps and when Bitcoin dumps, M pumps. So it's quite interesting to see. We would need to see if there are any deals to be made there. But I think it's more simply a matter of coincidence. I don't think it's necessarily linked, but it's quite interesting to see this. We also have AB which is up 12.2%. In terms of funding open interest, what we see is that we have an open interest that is completely rising. We also have a rise in funding. So simply, we see that a lot of longs are being placed in this zone right here. And where are their stops? Well, they are right here. So logically, in my opinion, we could simply go up a bit in the H4 IFVG that we have, to then come and sweep. And what would be interesting to see is that afterwards, we have a rebound. So in terms of liquidation, what we see is that we have a cluster to be taken around $89,159. That would liquidate nearly $360 million if we go there. And also afterwards, we have a second cluster at $94,800 for nearly $1 billion. So it would clearly be super interesting to dump to then come and seek this zone. If we look over a month, so we have this cluster to be taken for $460 million and then at $98,000, we would liquidate for nearly $2.6 billion. So clearly this zone, this target is something to keep in mind. In terms of what the Whales are doing, we have something really interesting. The Whales did not sell this movement, they continued to accumulate it right here. So, we did not have massive sales on this dump by the Whales. However, we had sales on the spot market, so from retail and micro Whales. So, we see it clearly, but we are not talking about huge sales either. It's more about taking liquidity. And here, we clearly see that we are accumulating just below this zone. So clearly, in my opinion, this is a zone we will seek. Now, the question is whether we will leave this lot here alone. So for me, what we should do is come and seek the liquidity. If I switch to H1, for example, so right here, logically what we should come and do, we had the OTE zone of this movement which was taken. So logically this lot would remain intact. So if we draw the OTE zone of the entire movement right here, we see that we could come and seek a little lower, so simply come and take the lots that we have right here. So logically, the upcoming movement would be this one in which we come and take the IFVG that we have right here, or a bit higher. It's not impossible to go up a bit higher. So, we could very well come and seek the FVG here to then come and take the liquidity that we have just below before having this potential rebound to go and seek $98,000. And there, the trade will be worth taking since our invalidation zone is right here. So that means that if we place an order just below with a stop just below this lot here to aim for $98,000, we are still on an RR of almost 6. So it would be really interesting to have this kind of movement. So personally, I think I will place an order. If I do, I will say it directly on the public group. Don't hesitate to click on the link in the video description. Uh, there is also a giveaway coming next week. Uh, so it's completely free to participate, you know. It's simply to thank you for being here every day watching the videos. And there you go, I hope you enjoyed this video. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. Have a good Saturday.