Transcription
After 13 days of air strikes by the United States of America on the Islamic Republic of Iran, the strikes have stopped. Iran was firing retaliatory strikes each time America hit them, and now the guns have fallen silent, relatively speaking, on both sides. Why though? Why have has the have the Americans stopped fighting?
Western outlets reported that Trump administration officials said the war could, quote, "dangerously drain the Pentagon's already diminished stockpile of Patriot anti-missile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East." End quote. So basically, America got back into the ring. They got tired again, really quickly, or they worried that they were going to run out of juice, and so they stepped out of the ring, really quickly.
Another source from Axios, which is a western outlet, said that, quote, "The current level of US strikes has reached the limit of its effectiveness." End quote. Translated, "What we're doing right now isn't working, but we're still draining our interceptor stockpiles because Iran keeps doing this really annoying thing. They keep firing back when we fire at them." The audacity of these Persians. Last century was better for us. No, we would just slap, and they would say, "Sorry, sir." Like now they, what? What are they? What are they talking back for, bro?
The report in Axios mentioned that the United States military were preparing, potentially are still preparing, for a possible return to major combat operations. So no small-scale fighting. Either we are silent, or we're going to throw all the kitchen sinks at this madness. All or nothing, basically. [snorts] You might remember this is what I forecasted. All or nothing. Peace or escalation. Not some sort of weird in-between for a long period of time, because Hormuz will remain closed if there's any sort, any reasonable level of conflict, and Hormuz can't remain closed for America now with Trump in command. The all-or-nothing strategy that I just outlined, that I said I did forecast, you know, it could change by lunchtime. Uh, you never know with Donny boy, so don't hold your breath, but that is the news and the analysis. That is the news so far as it currently stands. We're going to get into the analysis now after I have a sip of this tea. Oh, that's nice.
It will be peace or escalation. The US can't just leave Hormuz closed for months on end, because that's going to usher in a kind of pain that will be very hard to justify and tolerate on the American side, and justify to American friends and allies, East Asia, Western Europe, the Gulf monies. Everyone will be upset that America did something again that they will see as stupid, because Hormuz is closed. What the flip are you doing, America? What kind of superpower moves is this? If not losing, why losing shaped? I don't understand. Right?
So it's like the boxer that's potentially what's happening is the boxer that throws a few punches here and there, tries to get an idea of the situation, and then before a big explosive volley chain of attacks, he pulls back a bit, takes a few breaths. [panting and sighs] That's what a few breaths sounds like, and then [snorts] you know, there's a moment of calm, uh, the calm before the storm, as it were, and then he goes all in, or in Trump's case, all in. [snorts] That might be what America is doing.
So currently, Iran continues to hold the advantage, just objectively speaking. They have custodianship of Hormuz, de facto or not de jure custodianship, of course. Uh, and the US has failed to wrestle control militarily out of Iran's hands. Diplomatically, they achieved, uh, what they wanted. They, they got Iran to open Hormuz through the memorandum of understanding, the pinky promise. Uh, but they've sort of stopped that to initiate another American gambit, which has so far failed. It is what it is, you know, for better or worse, that's the reality.
So time is ticking again for Orange Lightning to strike. Decide where it's going to strike next. You know, there's the looming economic ruin that a Hormuz remaining closed will, will bring upon the world economy. There's that, that, that's one thing. Hormuz remaining closed, potentially a ticking time bomb. Then there's also America gearing up for escalation, potentially, you know, splashing out in terms of money and, uh, more diplomatic currency, splashing out for another, you know, uh, chance at the slot machine to see if three mangoes line up. Ding, ding, ding. You know, that's what Trump is looking for. Uh, i.e., spending money on another round of fighting, hoping for a favorable outcome for America before they sit down with and try to sign a, a peace deal. They're trying to do some things before they sit down properly so that they can get better terms from Iran. And while all that's happening, Hormuz, the potentially an escalation attempt by America that we might or might not see, we'll see. I don't know.
While all that's happening on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula from where this is going on in the Persian Gulf, the other side in the Red Sea, North Yemen continue to prevent Saudi Arabian shipping from exiting the Red Sea through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which is of course putting significant additional strain on the kingdom and the world economy as a whole. And it will only get worse the longer that strait is kept closed, just like Hormuz. And far from backing down when the Saudis sent air strikes to hit the North Yemeni port city of Hodeidah recently, instead of backing down, North Yemen have taken aim and fired at Yanbu and Jizan, both targets in Saudi Arabia. But they're not just any targets. Oh no. What was targeted was, was essentially Saudi economic crown jewels. Oil infrastructure belonging to the state oil giant Aramco. So the North Yemenis aren't messing about. It would seem they're trying to get the point across. They're trying to make clear that they will hit Saudi Arabia where it hurts the most and make any hostile exchanges between the two of them. If we're going to go into a tit for tat, you're going to suffer economically significantly for every tat. That's what North Yemen is trying to make clear.
So the question becomes now, will the government in Riyadh calculate that an escalation is unprofitable for us, the Saudis, and therefore instead we will back down and we will seek to come to an amicable, mutually beneficial agreement with the forces in North Yemen? Or will they decide instead, no, actually, hib, you know, this is not habibi, I'm not calling you habibi anymore, I'm not going to treat with you, to talk with you. Instead, I'm going to go for further escalations to the detriment of both sides, to be honest. But I, I need to make sure you understand. You can't, you don't tell me what to do. Puja, what is this behavior refer, uh, reference? Yeah.
So that's the current situation, guys. Uh, brought to you in about 7 minutes. The fire that was lit by animation budget by America and Israel. They, the fire continues to burn in places. It's smoldering. It's sort of almost put out. It's just glowing embers in other places. But generally speaking, nobody is out of the woods. The situation is, uh, remains very fragile, very volatile. From Iran in the far east to Lebanon in the far west, from Jordan in the north to Yemen in the south, nobody is getting a good night's sleep, including me, as I have a newborn. But alhamdulillah, of course, I'm very grateful to have another son. Not alhamdulillah.
So, time will tell how things turn out. I'll sing to Allah. Oh my god, the confusion. [laughter] That, that never happens naturally, but because I'm recording, it's a bit of a weird situation. It's like a, a performative thing. And then I started making dua midway, but alhamdulillah. Anyway, time will tell how things turn out, and I'll be here to report you the news and the analysis, unbiased and without the Western spin. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Mafaluga aka Newsba, and I'll work for you forever. I'll see you on the next one.